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MRMK

Merrimack 6 at Air Force 21

AF
2024 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2024 · Falcon Stadium
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Win probability · AF
modelAF aheadMRMK aheadconfidence bandkey playAF scoreMRMK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Ayden Pereira pass complete to Jalen McDonald for 11 yds for a TD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:16: Cade Harris run for 4 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK) — AF win probability +2.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 4:05: Timeout Air Force, clock 04:05 — AF win probability +3.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 0:00: Owen Allen run for 5 yds to the MRMK 49 for a 1ST down — AF win probability +1.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 12:34: Timeout Air Force, clock 12:34 — MRMK win probability +2.5 pts (now 4%) (top driver: MRMK has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 11:43: Owen Allen run for 4 yds to the MRMK 10 — AF win probability +2.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AF made the numbers' call on 7 of 10MRMK made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 12:53AF 4th & 10 at MRMK 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.1%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    96.1%−<0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    96.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:48MRMK 4th & 19 at MRMK 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.7%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:45AF 4th & 1 at MRMK 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    94.4%−0.3
    32% to make
    Punt
    94.4%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:12MRMK 4th & 1 at midfield, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.6%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:08AF 4th & 6 at MRMK 42, up 7
    Close callPunted · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    94.1%−0.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.2%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:22MRMK 4th & 6 at MRMK 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.1%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:31AF 4th & 8 at MRMK 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.9%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:41AF 4th & 8 at MRMK 9, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.5%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.6%
    89% to make
    Punt
    91.1%−1.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:48MRMK 4th & 5 at AF 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.8%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.9%
    77% to make
    Punt
    6.6%−2.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:30AF 4th & 7 at AF 28, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.5%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:14MRMK 4th & 21 at MRMK 39, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.5%−1.0
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:51AF 4th & 9 at AF 15, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.0%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:05MRMK 4th & 10 at AF 34, down 14
    Close callPunted · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.3%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    5.4%
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    5.0%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:34AF 4th & 5 at MRMK 44, up 14
    Close callPunted · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    95.6%−0.8
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.2%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:43AF 4th & 1 at MRMK 5, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.3%
    67% to convert
    Field goal
    94.9%−1.4
    92% to make
    Punt
    91.2%−5.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:57MRMK 4th & 5 at MRMK 30, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:40AF 4th & 3 at AF 27, up 21
    Close callPunted · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:00MRMK 4th & 1 at AF 41, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    0.6%
    32% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:00MRMK 4th & 2 at AF 13, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%−0.3
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    0.9%
    85% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−0.5
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:00MRMK 4th & 10 at AF 11, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%−0.4
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    1.0%
    87% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AF made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 6:02AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:16AF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 8:31AF Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MRMKDrive 1FUMBLE
5 plays · 29 yds · 2:004% → 4%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
96.3%
Malakai Anthony run for 3 yds to the MRMK 12Similar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+4
96.3%
Malakai Anthony pass complete to Jalen McDonald for 4 yds to the MRMK 16Similar
Q1 14:53
3RD & 3
OWN 16
-3
96.3%
Jermaine Corbett run for a loss of 3 yards to the MRMK 13Similar
Q1 14:53
4TH & 6
OWN 13
+15
96.3%
PETERSON, Cole punt 45 yards to the AF42, fair catch by HARRIS, Cade. PENALTY AF Personal Foul on BREIER, Cameron enforced 15 yards from the MC13 to the MC28 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [FAKE PUNT]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+10
96.0%
Gavin McCusker run for 10 yds to the MRMK 38 Gavin McCusker fumbled, recovered by AFA Grant Uyl G. Uyl return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2TD
14 plays · 38 yds · 6:5196% → 95%
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
96.0%
Dylan Carson run for 1 yd to the MRMK 37Similar
Q1 12:53
2ND & 9
OPP 37
-1
96.0%
Dylan Carson run for a loss of 1 yard to the MRMK 38 Dylan Carson fumbled, recovered by AFA Dylan Carson D. Carson return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q1 12:53
3RD & 10
OPP 38
0
96.0%
John Busha pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:53
4TH & 10
OPP 38
+12
96.0%
John Busha pass complete to Quin Smith for 12 yds to the MRMK 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
96.0%
Dylan Carson run for 4 yds to the MRMK 22Similar
Q1 12:53
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+4
96.0%
Dylan Carson run for 4 yds to the MRMK 18Similar
Q1 12:53
3RD & 2
OPP 18
+2
96.0%
Dylan Carson run for 2 yds to the MRMK 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
96.0%
Merrimack Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the MRMK 11Similar
Q1 12:53
1ST & 5
OPP 11
+2
96.0%
Dylan Carson run for 2 yds to the MRMK 9Similar
Q1 8:58
2ND & 3
OPP 9
+2
95.4%
Dylan Carson run for 2 yds to the MRMK 7Similar
Q1 8:58
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+2
95.3%
John Busha run for 2 yds to the MRMK 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
95.4%
Terrence Gist run for 1 yd to the MRMK 4Similar
Q1 6:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
94.9%
John Busha run for 2 yds to the MRMK 2Similar
Q1 6:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
95.3%
Cade Harris run for 2 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRMKDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 2:145% → 5%
Q1 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.2%
Malakai Anthony run for no gain to the MRMK 25Similar
Q1 6:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
95.2%
Jermaine Corbett run for 4 yds to the MRMK 29Similar
Q1 6:02
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-5
95.2%
Merrimack Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MRMK 24Similar
Q1 6:02
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-15
95.2%
Merrimack Penalty, turnover on downs. PENALTY Unsportsmanlike Conduct on WADLEY, Donovan enforced (-15 Yards) to the MRMK 16Similar
Q1 3:48
4TH & 19
OWN 16
+24
95.0%
Cole Peterson punt for 58 yds , Cade Harris returns for 24 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:0395% → 95%
Q1 3:48
1ST & 10
50
0
95.1%
Aiden Calvert run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 3:48
2ND & 10
50
+4
95.0%
Terrence Gist run for 4 yds to the MRMK 46Similar
Q1 3:48
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+5
95.0%
John Busha pass complete to Kade Frew for 5 yds to the MRMK 41Similar
Q1 1:45
4TH & 1
OPP 41
0
94.5%
Aiden Calvert run for no gain to the MRMK 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRMKDrive 5DOWNS
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:336% → 6%
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
94.2%
Jermaine Corbett run for 1 yd to the MRMK 42Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 9
OWN 42
0
94.2%
Malakai Anthony pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:45
3RD & 9
OWN 42
-5
94.3%
Merrimack Penalty, Delay Of Game (Josh Addo) to the MRMK 37Similar
Q1 1:05
3RD & 14
OWN 37
+13
94.3%
Malakai Anthony pass complete to Jelani Mason for 13 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 0:12
4TH & 1
50
-4
94.1%
Malakai Anthony run for a loss of 4 yards to the MRMK 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0495% → 94%
Q1 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
94.6%
John Busha pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+4
94.6%
Kade Frew run for 4 yds to the MRMK 42Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 42
0
94.5%
Kade Frew run for no gain to the MRMK 42Similar
Q2 14:08
4TH & 6
OPP 42
0
94.2%
Carson Bay punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRMKDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 2:466% → 6%
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
94.1%
Jalen McDonald run for 3 yds to the MRMK 23Similar
Q2 12:39
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+1
94.1%
Malakai Anthony pass complete to Jermaine Corbett for 1 yd to the MRMK 24Similar
Q2 12:39
3RD & 6
OWN 24
-10
94.2%
QB Keeper ANTHONY, Malakai rush to the right for a gain of 8 yards to the MC32 (AIHIE, Osaro). PENALTY MC Holding on SMITH, Brandon enforced 10 yards from the MC24 to the MC14 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:39
3RD & 16
OWN 14
+10
94.3%
Jermaine Corbett run for 10 yds to the MRMK 24Similar
Q2 11:22
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
94.1%
Cole Peterson punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8PUNT
10 plays · 23 yds · 3:5194% → 93%
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
93.8%
Owen Allen run for 4 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q2 11:22
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+5
93.8%
Merrimack Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the AFA 37Similar
Q2 11:22
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+1
94.0%
Owen Allen run for 1 yd to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
94.0%
Owen Allen run for 5 yds to the AFA 43Similar
Q2 11:22
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+4
94.1%
Owen Allen run for 4 yds to the AFA 47Similar
Q2 11:22
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+2
94.0%
Owen Allen run for 2 yds to the AFA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
94.1%
Terrence Gist run for 2 yds to the MRMK 49Similar
Q2 11:22
2ND & 8
OPP 49
0
94.1%
John Busha pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:22
3RD & 8
OPP 49
0
93.9%
John Busha pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:31
4TH & 8
OPP 49
+5
93.2%
Carson Bay punt for 43 yds , Jalen McDonald returns for 5 yds to the MRMK 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 9MISSED FG
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:5094% → 93%
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
93.9%
Owen Allen run for 3 yds to the MRMK 8Similar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+3
93.9%
Owen Allen run for 3 yds to the MRMK 5Similar
Q2 7:31
3RD & 4
OPP 5
-4
93.7%
Cade Harris run for a loss of 4 yards to the MRMK 9Similar
Q2 5:41
4TH & 8
OPP 9
+26
93.0%
Matthew Dapore 26 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRMKDrive 10MISSED FG
9 plays · 61 yds · 3:537% → 9%
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
93.1%
Malakai Anthony run for 9 yds to the MRMK 29Similar
Q2 5:41
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+33
92.7%
Jermaine Corbett run for 33 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
92.3%
Malakai Anthony pass complete to Jalen McDonald for 7 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q2 5:41
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+7
91.9%
Malakai Anthony pass complete to Ty Yocum for 7 yds to the AFA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
91.9%
Malakai Anthony run for 6 yds to the AFA 18Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 4
OPP 18
-5
90.1%
Malakai Anthony sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the AFA 23 Malakai Anthony fumbled, recovered by MRMK Malakai Anthony , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 9
OPP 23
+4
90.8%
Malakai Anthony pass complete to Jermaine Corbett for 4 yds to the AFA 19Similar
Q2 1:48
4TH & 5
OPP 19
+36
91.3%
Carlton Thai 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 11TD
15 plays · 80 yds · 1:3292% → 95%
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
91.8%
Cade Harris run for 11 yds to the AFA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
91.9%
John Busha pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+6
91.9%
John Busha pass complete to Cade Harris for 6 yds to the AFA 37Similar
Q2 1:48
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+4
92.1%
Terrence Gist run for 4 yds to the AFA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
92.4%
BUSHA, John pass to the right incomplete intended for HARRIS, Cade thrown to the MC48. PENALTY MC Holding on ROSEMOND JR., Garry enforced 10 yards from the AF41 to the MC49 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
92.6%
John Busha pass complete to Tylor Latham for 6 yds to the MRMK 43Similar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+21
92.5%
John Busha pass complete to Tre Roberson for 21 yds to the MRMK 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
92.7%
John Busha pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+8
92.5%
John Busha run for 8 yds to the MRMK 14Similar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 2
OPP 14
+6
92.2%
Terrence Gist run for 6 yds to the MRMK 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
92.8%
John Busha run for 4 yds to the MRMK 4Similar
Q2 0:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
95.2%
Cade Harris run for 4 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRMKDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · 8 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
95.1%
Jermaine Corbett run for 8 yds to the MRMK 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:3095% → 94%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
94.9%
Terrence Gist run for 1 yd to the AFA 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
94.9%
Terrence Gist run for 2 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
94.7%
John Busha pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:30
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+10
94.4%
Carson Bay punt for 45 yds , Garry Rosemond Jr. returns for 10 yds to the MRMK 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRMKDrive 14PUNT
11 plays · 2 yds · 3:166% → 6%
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
94.2%
Malakai Anthony run for 3 yds to the MRMK 40Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
94.1%
Malakai Anthony pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:28
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+10
93.7%
ANTHONY, Malakai sacked for a loss of 10 yards at the MC30 (UYL, Grant). PENALTY AF Holding on BELLAMY, Jamari enforced 10 yards from the MC40 to the MC50 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
50
-10
93.1%
CORBETT, Jermaine rush to the left for no gain to the MC50 (ADAMS, Jackson). PENALTY MC Holding on JOHNSON, Amir enforced 10 yards from the MC50 to the MC40 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:28
1ST & 20
OWN 40
0
94.1%
Malakai Anthony pass complete to Jared Dunn for no gain to the MRMK 40Similar
Q3 12:28
2ND & 20
OWN 40
+9
94.2%
Malakai Anthony pass complete to Jalen McDonald for 9 yds to the MRMK 49Similar
Q3 12:28
3RD & 11
OWN 49
0
93.6%
Malakai Anthony pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:28
4TH & 11
OWN 49
-10
94.2%
PETERSON, Cole punt 49 yards to the AF2 downed by SIMMS, Danny. PENALTY MC Holding on MARYLAND, Nasir enforced 10 yards from the MC49 to the MC39 [FAKE PUNT]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 10:14
4TH & 21
OWN 39
0
94.3%
Cole Peterson punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Cade Harris at the AFA 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:2395% → 94%
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-2
94.8%
Cade Harris run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 12Similar
Q3 10:14
2ND & 12
OWN 12
0
94.8%
John Busha pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:14
3RD & 12
OWN 12
+3
94.6%
Terrence Gist run for 3 yds to the AFA 15Similar
Q3 8:51
4TH & 9
OWN 15
+12
94.3%
Carson Bay punt for 54 yds , Garry Rosemond Jr. returns for 12 yds to the MRMK 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRMKDrive 16PUNT
12 plays · 23 yds · 4:467% → 6%
Q3 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
92.9%
Malakai Anthony pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:07
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
93.9%
Malakai Anthony pass complete to Jermaine Corbett for no gain to the MRMK 43Similar
Q3 8:07
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+13
94.0%
Malakai Anthony pass complete to Donovan Wadley for 13 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
93.1%
Jermaine Corbett run for 4 yds to the AFA 40Similar
Q3 8:07
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+4
92.9%
Malakai Anthony run for 4 yds to the AFA 36Similar
Q3 8:07
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+2
93.0%
Jermaine Corbett run for 2 yds to the AFA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
92.8%
Matthias Latham run for 2 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q3 8:07
2ND & 8
OPP 32
-2
92.8%
Malakai Anthony run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 34Similar
Q3 8:07
3RD & 10
OPP 34
0
93.5%
Malakai Anthony pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:05
4TH & 10
OPP 34
0
94.2%
Cole Peterson punt for 31 yds, downed at the AFA 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 17PUNT
13 plays · 53 yds · 6:3198% → 99%
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
97.5%
Terrence Gist run for 2 yds to the AFA 5Similar
Q3 4:05
2ND & 8
OWN 5
+4
97.2%
Terrence Gist run for 4 yds to the AFA 9Similar
Q3 4:05
3RD & 4
OWN 9
+5
97.1%
John Busha run for 5 yds to the AFA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
97.0%
John Busha run for 2 yds to the AFA 16Similar
Q3 4:05
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+21
96.9%
John Busha pass complete to Aiden Calvert for 21 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
96.9%
Owen Allen run for 9 yds to the AFA 46Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+5
98.6%
Owen Allen run for 5 yds to the MRMK 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
98.6%
Owen Allen run for 3 yds to the MRMK 46Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 46
-10
98.6%
ALLEN, Owen rush to the left for a gain of 6 yards to the MC40 (PALANICA JR., Nate;COOPER, Rajahn). PENALTY AF Holding on LAWRENCE, Tyler enforced 10 yards from the MC46 to the AF44. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 17
OWN 44
+11
98.5%
John Busha run for 11 yds to the MRMK 45Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+1
98.5%
Owen Allen run for 1 yd to the MRMK 44Similar
Q4 12:34
4TH & 5
OPP 44
0
98.5%
Carson Bay punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Garry Rosemond Jr. at the MRMK 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRMKDrive 18FUMBLE
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:514% → 3%
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
96.0%
Malakai Anthony run for 5 yds to the MRMK 15Similar
Q4 12:34
2ND & 5
OWN 15
0
96.4%
Malakai Anthony pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:43
3RD & 5
OWN 15
+4
96.8%
Malakai Anthony pass complete to Jermaine Corbett for 4 yds Jermaine Corbett fumbled, recovered by AFA Luke Fisher L. Fisher return for 5 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 19TD
6 plays · 14 yds · 3:1299% → 100%
Q4 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
98.9%
Owen Allen run for 4 yds to the MRMK 10Similar
Q4 11:43
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+5
98.8%
Owen Allen run for 5 yds to the MRMK 5Similar
Q4 11:43
3RD & 1
OPP 5
0
98.8%
John Busha run for no gain to the MRMK 5Similar
Q4 11:43
4TH & 1
OPP 5
+3
98.6%
John Busha run for 3 yds to the MRMK 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
98.8%
Owen Allen run for 1 yd to the MRMK 1Similar
Q4 8:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.8%
Aiden Calvert run for 1 yd for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRMKDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:341% → 0%
Q4 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
99.4%
Malakai Anthony pass complete to Donovan Wadley for a loss of 3 yards to the MRMK 22Similar
Q4 8:31
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+8
99.4%
Malakai Anthony pass complete to Jalen McDonald for 8 yds to the MRMK 30Similar
Q4 8:31
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
99.4%
Malakai Anthony pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:57
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
99.5%
Cole Peterson punt for 68 yds, downed at the AFA 2Similar
Q4 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+5
99.9%
Merrimack Penalty, Offsides (Jay Thompson) to the AFA 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 3:17100% → 100%
Q4 6:57
1ST & 5
OWN 7
+3
99.8%
Owen Allen run for 3 yds to the AFA 10Similar
Q4 5:29
2ND & 2
OWN 10
+10
99.8%
Owen Allen run for 10 yds to the AFA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
99.8%
Darius Stone run for 3 yds to the AFA 23Similar
Q4 5:29
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+4
99.8%
Darius Stone run for 4 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q4 3:50
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
99.9%
Darius Stone run for no gain to the AFA 27Similar
Q4 3:40
4TH & 3
OWN 27
+14
99.9%
Carson Bay punt for 37 yds , Jalen McDonald returns for 14 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRMKDrive 22TD
17 plays · 50 yds · 3:400% → 1%
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
50
0
99.7%
Ayden Pereira pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:40
2ND & 10
50
+8
99.7%
Ayden Pereira pass complete to Matthias Latham for 8 yds to the AFA 42Similar
Q4 3:40
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+1
99.7%
Ayden Pereira run for 1 yd to the AFA 41Similar
Q4 2:00
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+2
99.7%
Matthias Latham run for 2 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
99.7%
Ayden Pereira run for 8 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 2
OPP 31
0
99.6%
Ayden Pereira pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+10
99.7%
Ayden Pereira pass complete to LJ Robinson for 10 yds to the AFA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
99.6%
Ayden Pereira pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+4
99.6%
Matthias Latham run for 4 yds to the AFA 17Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 6
OPP 17
+4
99.6%
Ayden Pereira run for 4 yds to the AFA 13Similar
Q4 2:00
4TH & 2
OPP 13
+2
99.6%
Ayden Pereira run for 2 yds to the AFA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
99.6%
Ayden Pereira pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
99.6%
Ayden Pereira pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:05
3RD & 10
OPP 11
0
99.9%
Ayden Pereira pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 10
OPP 11
+11
99.4%
Ayden Pereira pass complete to Jalen McDonald for 11 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q3 4:05
Timeout Air Force, clock 04:05
+3.4
KEY PLAY · Q4 12:34
Timeout Air Force, clock 12:34
-2.5
TD · Q2 0:16
Cade Harris run for 4 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)
+2.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com