2024 · Week 1 · Aug 24, 2024 · University Stadium (NM)
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Win probability · UNM
modelUNM aheadMTST aheadconfidence bandkey playUNM scoreMTST score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:25 · Aaron Rodriguez punt for 40 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialTimeout advantage
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 13:45: Devon Dampier pass complete to Trace Bruckler for 12 yds for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK) — UNM win probability +12.0 pts (now 48%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 13:03: Noah Avinger 13 Yd Fumble Return (Luke Drzewiecki Kick) — UNM win probability +17.7 pts (now 73%) (top driver: MTST has the ball).
- TD · Q4 13:39: Tommy Mellott run for 15 yds for a TD (Myles Sansted KICK) — MTST win probability +15.6 pts (now 27%) (top driver: MTST has the ball).
- TD · Q4 4:35: Adam Jones run for 93 yds for a TD (Myles Sansted KICK) — MTST win probability +26.1 pts (now 37%) (top driver: MTST has the ball).
- TD · Q4 0:10: Scottre Humphrey run for 4 yds for a TD (Myles Sansted KICK) — MTST win probability +63.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MTST has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UNM made the numbers' call on 4 of 7MTST made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
- Q1 13:25UNM 4th & 7 at MTST 40, tiedClose callPunted · 24.6% before the snapGo for it24.6%37% to convertField goal24.5%−0.134% to makePuntTheir call24.5%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 8:09MTST 4th & 7 at UNM 44, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.8% before the snapGo for it70.8%−<0.137% to convertField goal70.7%−0.227% to makePuntTheir call70.9%average punt
- Q1 4:49UNM 4th & 11 at MTST 28, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.0% before the snapGo for it31.7%−0.326% to convertField goalTheir call32.0%60% to makePunt30.3%−1.6average punt
- Q1 2:14MTST 4th & 8 at UNM 32, down 10Close callWent for it · 65.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call64.7%−0.134% to convertField goal64.8%51% to makePunt64.3%−0.6average punt
- Q2 9:29UNM 4th & 6 at UNM 29, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.0% before the snapGo for it41.7%−0.539% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call42.2%average punt
- Q2 0:51MTST 4th & 7 at MTST 39, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.6% before the snapGo for it42.2%−1.037% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call43.1%average punt
- Q3 8:18MTST 4th & 1 at UNM 25, down 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call22.1%71% to convertField goal18.2%−4.066% to makePunt6.7%−15.5average punt
- Q3 4:12UNM 4th & 4 at MTST 18, up 17Close callKicked a field goal · 87.8% before the snapGo for it87.6%47% to convertField goalTheir call87.3%−0.379% to makePunt80.3%−7.3average punt
- Q4 9:33UNM 4th & 7 at MTST 25, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.5% before the snapGo for it83.5%−0.136% to convertField goalTheir call83.6%66% to makePunt77.9%−5.7average punt
- Q4 6:17MTST 4th & 3 at MTST 43, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call10.5%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt10.4%−0.1average punt
- Q4 5:16UNM 4th & 5 at MTST 37, up 10Close callPunted · 90.3% before the snapGo for it90.0%42% to convertField goal89.4%−0.640% to makePuntTheir call89.1%−0.9average punt
- Q4 1:59UNM 4th & 11 at UNM 37, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.4% before the snapGo for it79.0%−4.226% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call83.2%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNM made the numbers' call on 4 of 4MTST made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 10:37UNM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call27.0%97% to makeGo for two27.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:45UNM Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call43.9%97% to makeGo for two43.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:36MTST Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call55.5%97% to makeGo for two55.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:37MTST Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call59.4%97% to makeGo for two59.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:33UNM Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call55.4%97% to makeGo for two55.2%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 13:03UNM Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call71.0%97% to makeGo for two70.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:39MTST Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call18.5%97% to makeGo for two18.3%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 4:35MTST Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call23.9%97% to makeGo for two22.3%−1.645% to convert
- Q4 0:10MTST Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.0%97% to makeGo for two80.9%−1.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUNMDrive 1PUNT8 plays · 35 yds · 1:3520% → 21%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
20.3%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Luke Wysong for 14 yds to the UNM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:14
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+15
20.7%
(14:14) DAMPIER, Devon pass deep to the right incomplete intended for TRUJILLO, Nic broken up by JACKSON, Miles at the MSU20, clock 14:07. PENALTY MSU Pass Interference on JACKSON, Miles enforced 15 yards to the MSU43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSTDrive 2FUMBLE RETURN TD6 plays · 21 yds · 2:3979% → 77%
Q1 11:28
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+6
21.8%
Tommy Mellott pass complete to Lonyatta Alexander Jr. for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSTDrive 3PUNT6 plays · 26 yds · 2:1676% → 74%
UNMDrive 4FG9 plays · 67 yds · 3:1126% → 29%
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+11
25.8%
(08:00) DAMPIER, Devon scrambles to the left for a gain of 11 yards to the UNM5 (JOHNSON, Jon), 1ST DOWN, clock 07:50. PENALTY UNM Holding MSU Holding , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+12
26.1%
(07:38) DAMPIER, Devon pass to the right incomplete intended for DAVIS, Ryan thrown to the UNM17, clock 07:34. PENALTY MSU Pass Interference on POWDRELL, Andrew enforced at the spot of the foul for 12 yards to the UNM17 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 6:13
3RD & 7
OWN 20
+53
27.2%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Luke Wysong for 53 yds to the MTST 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSTDrive 5DOWNS6 plays · 43 yds · 2:3572% → 69%
UNMDrive 6TD8 plays · 68 yds · 3:2332% → 48%
Q1 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
32.0%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Ryan Davis for 4 yds to the UNM 36Similar
Q1 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
33.5%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Shawn Miller for 8 yds to the MTST 43Similar
Q1 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+14
34.8%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Luke Wysong for 14 yds to the MTST 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:59
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
35.3%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Trace Bruckler for 11 yds to the MTST 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+12
48.0%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Trace Bruckler for 12 yds for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSTDrive 7TD6 plays · 75 yds · 3:0855% → 64%
UNMDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0739% → 39%
MTSTDrive 9TD10 plays · 76 yds · 4:4159% → 66%
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
41.5%
Tommy Mellott pass complete to Adam Jones for 4 yds to the MTST 39Similar
Q2 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
42.0%
Tommy Mellott pass complete to Taco Dowler for 7 yds to the UNM 47Similar
Q2 6:43
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+6
41.9%
Tommy Mellott pass complete to Ty McCullouch for 6 yds to the UNM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
33.9%
Tommy Mellott pass complete to Ty McCullouch for 17 yds for a TD (Myles Sansted KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 10TD9 plays · 75 yds · 3:0338% → 55%
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
37.8%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Trace Bruckler for 3 yds to the UNM 28Similar
Q2 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
39.3%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Caleb Medford for 7 yds to the UNM 43Similar
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
41.5%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Ryan Davis for 11 yds to the MTST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
42.0%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Luke Wysong for 2 yds to the MTST 38Similar
Q2 2:03
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+8
42.4%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Trace Bruckler for 8 yds to the MTST 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSTDrive 11PUNT8 plays · 14 yds · 0:4148% → 47%
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
51.7%
Tommy Mellott pass complete to Lonyatta Alexander Jr. for 5 yds to the MTST 30Similar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
51.1%
Tommy Mellott pass complete to Rohan Jones for 6 yds to the MTST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
51.3%
Tommy Mellott sacked by Moso'oipala Tuitele for a loss of 2 yards to the MTST 34Similar
Q2 0:51
4TH & 7
OWN 39
0
52.8%
Brendan Hall punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Javen Jacobs at the UNM 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 12END OF HALF1 play · 4 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSTDrive 13FUMBLE RETURN TD4 plays · -5 yds · 1:5146% → 27%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSTDrive 14DOWNS10 plays · 52 yds · 4:3828% → 23%
UNMDrive 15MISSED FG8 plays · 57 yds · 3:5883% → 87%
MTSTDrive 16TD12 plays · 80 yds · 5:3014% → 27%
UNMDrive 17MISSED FG9 plays · 50 yds · 4:0578% → 90%
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
78.1%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Luke Wysong for 8 yds to the UNM 33Similar
Q4 11:53
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+15
82.2%
(11:53) DAMPIER, Devon pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for WYSONG, Luke broken up by STILLWELL, Blake at the MSU13, clock 11:47. PENALTY MSU Pass Interference on STILLWELL, Blake enforced 15 yards MSU Unsportsmanlike Conduct on STILLWELL, Blake enforced 15 yards from the MSU43 to the MSU28 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSTDrive 18DOWNS6 plays · 18 yds · 3:1416% → 12%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 19PUNT6 plays · 5 yds · 1:0496% → 89%
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+2
89.4%
(05:11) QB Keeper MELLOTT, Tommy rush to the right for a gain of 2 yards to the MSU7 (ELLIS, Christian), clock 05:05. PENALTY MSU Holding on LONERGAN, Ryan UNM Horse Collar Tackle on ELLIS, Christian , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSTDrive 20TD1 play · 93 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 21PUNT8 plays · 12 yds · 2:3471% → 80%
MTSTDrive 22TD11 plays · 89 yds · 1:4828% → 96%
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
71.9%
Tommy Mellott pass complete to Lonyatta Alexander Jr. for 5 yds to the MTST 16Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+16
72.1%
Tommy Mellott pass complete to Rohan Jones for 16 yds to the MTST 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:28
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+37
74.5%
Tommy Mellott pass complete to Lonyatta Alexander Jr. for 37 yds to the UNM 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
61.9%
Tommy Mellott pass complete to Lonyatta Alexander Jr. for 5 yds to the UNM 26Similar
Q4 1:16
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+6
59.1%
Tommy Mellott pass complete to Adam Jones for 6 yds to the UNM 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:33
3RD & 6
OPP 16
+12
67.9%
Tommy Mellott pass complete to Ty McCullouch for 12 yds to the UNM 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 23FUMBLE2 plays · -5 yds · 0:0913% → 13%
Q4 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
13.2%
New Mexico Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (Devon Dampier) to the UNM 21Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 14
OWN 21
-1
12.6%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Nic Trujillo for a loss of 1 yard Nic Trujillo fumbled, recovered by MTST Elijah Elliott E. Elliott return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:10
Scottre Humphrey run for 4 yds for a TD (Myles Sansted KICK)
-63.8
TD · Q4 4:35
Adam Jones run for 93 yds for a TD (Myles Sansted KICK)
-26.1
TD · Q3 13:03
Noah Avinger 13 Yd Fumble Return (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)
+17.7