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TXST

Texas State 39 at Sam Houston 40

SHSU
2024 · Week 5 · Sep 28, 2024 · NRG Stadium
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Win probability · SHSU
modelSHSU aheadTXST aheadconfidence bandkey playSHSU scoreTXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 14:39 · Jadon Cardell punt for 44 yds , Kole Wilson returns for no gain to the TXST 31
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+28.5+14.30−14.3−28.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 105Pregame prior−14.3Home team on offense−10.3Score differential−4.8Garbage-time factor−2.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:51: Hunter Watson run for 3 yds for a TD (Christian Pavon KICK) — SHSU win probability +9.1 pts (now 28%) (top driver: SHSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:57: Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kole Wilson for 4 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK) — TXST win probability +11.9 pts (now 91%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:30: Hunter Watson run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — SHSU win probability +9.9 pts (now 23%) (top driver: SHSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:51: Jay Ducker run for 1 yd for a TD (Christian Pavon KICK) — SHSU win probability +15.7 pts (now 37%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. FG · Q4 0:06: Christian Pavon 24 yd FG GOOD — SHSU win probability +70.1 pts (now 91%) (top driver: SHSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SHSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7TXST made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 7:55SHSU 4th & 14 at SHSU 21, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.5%−1.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:20TXST 4th & 2 at SHSU 2, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    76.9%−0.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    72.8%−5.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 9:42TXST 4th & 15 at TXST 19, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.2%−1.9
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:42SHSU 4th & 1 at TXST 30, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    21.2%−1.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    20.6%−1.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:21SHSU 4th & 3 at SHSU 13, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.1%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.3%
    average punt
  6. Q3 14:39SHSU 4th & 10 at SHSU 25, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.6%−1.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.6%
    average punt
  7. Q3 8:38SHSU 4th & 6 at TXST 37, down 18
    Close callKicked a field goal · 12.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.5%−0.7
    40% to make
    Punt
    12.3%−0.9
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:55TXST 4th & 1 at SHSU 37, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    88.3%−2.4
    40% to make
    Punt
    88.1%−2.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:41TXST 4th & 1 at TXST 24, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    84.1%−1.0
    average punt
  10. Q4 13:59TXST 4th & 7 at TXST 28, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.7%−2.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.9%
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:28SHSU 4th & 16 at TXST 29, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.4%−5.0
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.4%
    58% to make
    Punt
    19.8%−11.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:49TXST 4th & 6 at SHSU 19, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.3%−0.9
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.3%
    77% to make
    Punt
    41.8%−20.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:06SHSU 4th & 7 at TXST 8, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.7%−52.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.8%
    90% to make
    Punt
    11.2%−62.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SHSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5TXST made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 11:08TXST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:21TXST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    74.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    74.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:20TXST Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:14SHSU Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:16SHSU Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 3:19TXST Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:51SHSU Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 11:57TXST Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 4:30SHSU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    17.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    17.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 0:51SHSU Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1TD
12 plays · 77 yds · 3:4676% → 76%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
23.9%
Ismail Mahdi run for 1 yd to the TXST 24Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+13
23.9%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Jaden Williams for 13 yds to the TXST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
23.9%
Ismail Mahdi run for 11 yds to the TXST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
23.8%
Ismail Mahdi run for 4 yds to the SHSU 48Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+6
23.8%
Ismail Mahdi run for 6 yds to the SHSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+16
23.8%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Jaden Williams for 16 yds to the SHSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
23.8%
Ismail Mahdi run for no gain to the SHSU 26Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+1
23.8%
Ismail Mahdi run for 1 yd to the SHSU 27Similar
Q1 11:40
3RD & 11
OPP 27
+21
25.1%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Joey Hobert for 21 yds to the SHSU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
24.1%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Joey Hobert for 6 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 2FUMBLE RETURN TD
8 plays · 4 yds · 1:4725% → 24%
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
24.5%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Ife Adeyi for 8 yds to the SHSU 33Similar
Q1 11:08
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
24.7%
Jay Ducker run for 1 yd to the SHSU 32Similar
Q1 11:08
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+11
24.5%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Noah Smith for 11 yds to the SHSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
24.8%
Hunter Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:08
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-5
24.7%
PENALTY SHSU False Start (Hagler,Ethan) 5 yards from SHSU43 to SHSU38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:21
2ND & 15
OWN 38
+29
24.4%
Kenny Haynes 29 Yd Fumble Return (Mason Shipley Pass to David Nunez for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:2624% → 23%
Q1 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
24.3%
Hunter Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
24.3%
Noah Smith run for 6 yds to the SHSU 31Similar
Q1 9:21
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-10
24.3%
Hunter Watson sacked by Brice Bass for a loss of 10 yards to the SHSU 21Similar
Q1 7:55
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
23.1%
Jadon Cardell punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TXST 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 4TD
15 plays · 58 yds · 5:3577% → 83%
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
22.6%
Ismail Mahdi run for 4 yds to the TXST 46Similar
Q1 7:55
2ND & 6
OWN 46
-5
22.7%
PENALTY TXST False Start (Todd,Chayse) 5 yards from TXST46 to TXST41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:55
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+7
22.7%
Ismail Mahdi run for 7 yds to the TXST 48Similar
Q1 7:55
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+5
22.7%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Jaden Williams for 5 yds to the SHSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+12
22.6%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Jaden Williams for 12 yds to the SHSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
22.5%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kole Wilson for 7 yds to the SHSU 28Similar
Q1 7:55
2ND & 3
OPP 28
0
22.6%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:55
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+3
22.7%
Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the SHSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
22.6%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Konner Fox for 6 yds to the SHSU 19Similar
Q1 7:55
2ND & 4
OPP 19
0
22.6%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:55
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+10
22.6%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Chris Dawn Jr. for 10 yds to the SHSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
22.6%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
22.6%
Joey Hobert run for 7 yds to the SHSU 2Similar
Q1 7:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
22.7%
Lincoln Pare run for no gain to the SHSU 2Similar
Q1 2:20
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
16.6%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Joey Hobert for 2 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 5TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 6:0618% → 22%
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
18.3%
Hunter Watson sacked by Kalil Alexander for a loss of 3 yards to the SHSU 22Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+10
18.2%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Jyzaiah Rockwell for 10 yds to the SHSU 32Similar
Q1 2:20
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+8
18.5%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Jyzaiah Rockwell for 8 yds to the SHSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
17.9%
Hunter Watson run for no gain to the SHSU 40Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+11
17.7%
Hunter Watson run for 11 yds to the TXST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
18.2%
Hunter Watson run for 3 yds to the TXST 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+28
18.2%
DJ McKinney run for 28 yds to the TXST 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
18.8%
DJ McKinney run for 1 yd to the TXST 17Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+6
18.8%
Hunter Watson pass complete to DJ McKinney for 6 yds to the TXST 11Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 11
+3
18.6%
Hunter Watson run for 3 yds to the TXST 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
18.8%
Hunter Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
18.8%
Texas State Penalty, (7 Yards) to the TXST 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
21.8%
Jay Ducker run for 1 yd for a TD (Christian Pavon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:2681% → 80%
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
19.5%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:08
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+8
19.6%
Ismail Mahdi run for 8 yds to the TXST 16Similar
Q2 11:08
3RD & 18
OWN 16
+3
19.9%
Jordan McCloud run for 3 yds to the TXST 19Similar
Q2 9:42
4TH & 15
OWN 19
0
19.9%
Lars Rau punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Ife Adeyi at the SHSU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 7TD
8 plays · 58 yds · 3:2621% → 27%
Q2 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+19
21.0%
Hunter Watson run for 19 yds to the TXST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
21.2%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Elijah Sohn for 9 yds to the TXST 30Similar
Q2 9:42
2ND & 1
OPP 30
0
21.5%
Hunter Watson run for no gain to the TXST 30Similar
Q2 9:42
3RD & 1
OPP 30
0
21.1%
Hunter Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:42
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+2
20.9%
Hunter Watson run for 2 yds to the TXST 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+11
21.5%
Jay Ducker run for 11 yds to the TXST 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
21.5%
Jay Ducker run for 3 yds to the TXST 14Similar
Q2 6:16
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+14
26.6%
Jay Ducker run for 14 yds for a TD (Christian Pavon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 8TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 2:5777% → 85%
Q2 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
23.0%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Jaden Williams for 12 yds to the TXST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+20
22.2%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Konner Fox for 20 yds to the SHSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
21.6%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Jaden Williams for 5 yds to the SHSU 28Similar
Q2 6:16
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+5
21.5%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Ismail Mahdi for 5 yds to the SHSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+18
21.5%
Ismail Mahdi run for 18 yds to the SHSU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
21.5%
Ismail Mahdi run for 2 yds to the SHSU 3Similar
Q2 3:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
15.5%
Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:5418% → 19%
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+1
18.2%
Hunter Watson run for 1 yd to the SHSU 7Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 9
OWN 7
+1
18.1%
DJ McKinney run for 1 yd to the SHSU 8Similar
Q2 2:35
3RD & 8
OWN 8
+5
17.5%
John Gentry run for 5 yds to the SHSU 13Similar
Q2 2:21
4TH & 3
OWN 13
+58
19.2%
Jadon Cardell punt for 52 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 10TD
11 plays · 29 yds · 1:3022% → 28%
Q2 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
22.0%
Hunter Watson run for 9 yds to the TXST 20Similar
Q2 2:21
2ND & 1
OPP 20
0
22.0%
Jay Ducker run for no gain to the TXST 20Similar
Q2 1:59
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+8
18.5%
Jay Ducker run for 8 yds to the TXST 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
22.8%
Jay Ducker run for 5 yds to the TXST 7Similar
Q2 1:59
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+1
19.7%
Jay Ducker run for 1 yd to the TXST 6Similar
Q2 1:59
3RD & 4
OPP 6
0
19.1%
Hunter Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:59
4TH & 4
OPP 6
+3
18.9%
PENALTY TXST UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Eaton,Joshua) 3 yards from TXST06 to TXST03, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
28.0%
Hunter Watson run for 3 yds for a TD (Christian Pavon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 11FG
6 plays · 48 yds · 0:4177% → 82%
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
23.3%
Lincoln Pare run for 4 yds to the TXST 14Similar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+9
23.3%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Joey Hobert for 9 yds to the TXST 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
23.1%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 11 yds to the TXST 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+24
22.2%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Jaden Williams for 24 yds to the SHSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+60
18.2%
Mason Shipley 60 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:2122% → 21%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
21.9%
Hunter Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
21.8%
Hunter Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
21.8%
Hunter Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:39
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
21.3%
Jadon Cardell punt for 44 yds , Kole Wilson returns for no gain to the TXST 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 13TD
9 plays · 69 yds · 2:4278% → 91%
Q3 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+13
22.0%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Jaden Williams for 13 yds to the TXST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
21.2%
Ismail Mahdi run for 3 yds to the TXST 47Similar
Q3 14:39
2ND & 7
OWN 47
0
21.2%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:39
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+22
21.4%
Jordan McCloud run for 7 yds to the SHSU 46 for a 1ST down Sam Houston Penalty, (15 Yards) to the SHSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:39
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+14
21.1%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Jaden Williams for 29 yds to the SHSU 2 for a 1ST down Texas State Penalty, (-15 Yards) to the SHSU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:39
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
21.0%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Joey Hobert for 4 yds to the SHSU 13Similar
Q3 14:39
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+9
21.0%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Chris Dawn Jr. for 9 yds to the SHSU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
21.0%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
9.1%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kole Wilson for 4 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 14MISSED FG
9 plays · 38 yds · 3:1913% → 13%
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
12.6%
Hunter Watson run for 1 yd to the SHSU 24Similar
Q3 11:57
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+11
12.4%
DJ McKinney run for 11 yds to the SHSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
12.8%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Simeon Evans for 7 yds to the SHSU 42Similar
Q3 11:57
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+15
13.5%
Texas State Penalty, (15 Yards) to the TXST 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
13.9%
Hunter Watson run for 3 yds to the TXST 38Similar
Q3 11:57
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+1
14.0%
DJ McKinney run for 1 yd to the TXST 37Similar
Q3 11:57
3RD & 6
OPP 37
0
13.7%
Hunter Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:38
4TH & 6
OPP 37
+54
12.5%
Christian Pavon 54 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 15DOWNS
6 plays · 26 yds · 1:4391% → 92%
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+17
8.8%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Beau Sparks for 17 yds to the SHSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
8.4%
Jordan McCloud run for 4 yds to the SHSU 42Similar
Q3 8:38
2ND & 6
OPP 42
0
8.4%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:38
3RD & 6
OPP 42
-5
8.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun McCloud,Jordan pass complete short right to Hobert,Joey caught at SHSU40, for 8 yards to the SHSU34 (Cash,Isaiah), out of bounds PENALTY TXST Illegal Formation 5 yards from SHSU42 to SHSU47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:38
3RD & 11
OPP 47
+10
8.6%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Joey Hobert for 10 yds to the SHSU 37Similar
Q3 6:55
4TH & 1
OPP 37
0
8.3%
Lincoln Pare run for no gain to the SHSU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 16TD
7 plays · 63 yds · 2:2511% → 23%
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
11.2%
Noah Smith run for 15 yds to the TXST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+28
12.0%
Ife Adeyi run for 28 yds to the TXST 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
12.9%
Hunter Watson run for 1 yd to the TXST 21Similar
Q3 6:55
2ND & 11
OPP 21
+15
12.6%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Michael Phoenix II for 15 yds to the TXST 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
12.9%
DJ McKinney run for 5 yds to the TXST 1Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
22.8%
Hunter Watson run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 17DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4484% → 85%
Q3 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
16.0%
Ismail Mahdi run for 6 yds to the TXST 21Similar
Q3 4:25
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+3
15.7%
Jordan McCloud run for 3 yds to the TXST 24Similar
Q3 4:25
3RD & 1
OWN 24
0
16.1%
Ismail Mahdi run for no gain to the TXST 24Similar
Q3 2:41
4TH & 1
OWN 24
0
14.7%
Lincoln Pare run for no gain to the TXST 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 18TD
5 plays · 24 yds · 1:5021% → 37%
Q3 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
21.0%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Noah Smith for 5 yds to the TXST 19Similar
Q3 2:41
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+7
20.9%
Hunter Watson run for 7 yds to the TXST 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
20.9%
Hunter Watson run for 1 yd to the TXST 11Similar
Q3 2:41
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+10
20.9%
Noah Smith run for 10 yds to the TXST 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
36.6%
Jay Ducker run for 1 yd for a TD (Christian Pavon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:4773% → 71%
Q3 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
26.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun McCloud,Jordan pass complete short middle to Hobert,Joey caught at TXST36, for 15 yards to the TXST40 (Weaver,Caleb) PENALTY TXST Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Jones,Nash) 5 yards from TXST25 to TXST20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+2
27.5%
Ismail Mahdi run for 2 yds to the TXST 18 Ismail Mahdi fumbled, recovered by TXST Ismail MahdiSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 17
OWN 18
0
27.9%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+10
28.9%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Konner Fox for 10 yds to the TXST 28Similar
Q4 13:59
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
29.4%
Lars Rau punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Ife Adeyi at the SHSU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 20FG
10 plays · 35 yds · 4:3130% → 42%
Q4 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
30.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Watson,Hunter pass complete short left to Adeyi,Ife caught at SHSU34, for 2 yards loss to the SHSU34 (Bass,Brice) PENALTY SHSU Illegal Formation 5 yards from SHSU36 to SHSU31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:59
1ST & 15
OWN 31
+25
29.2%
Hunter Watson run for 25 yds to the TXST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:59
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
34.2%
DJ McKinney run for 5 yds to the TXST 39Similar
Q4 13:59
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+16
34.3%
Hunter Watson pass complete to DJ McKinney for 16 yds to the TXST 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:59
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-5
36.3%
PENALTY SHSU False Start (Hagler,Ethan) 5 yards from TXST23 to TXST28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:59
1ST & 15
OPP 28
+1
35.1%
Hunter Watson run for 1 yd to the TXST 27Similar
Q4 13:59
2ND & 14
OPP 27
+3
33.9%
Hunter Watson run for 3 yds to the TXST 24Similar
Q4 13:59
3RD & 11
OPP 24
-5
33.1%
Sam Houston Penalty, (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 9:28
4TH & 16
OPP 29
+46
42.0%
Christian Pavon 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 21MISSED FG
9 plays · 23 yds · 2:3067% → 63%
Q4 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
32.6%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Joey Hobert for 9 yds to the SHSU 33Similar
Q4 9:19
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+2
30.3%
Ismail Mahdi run for 2 yds to the SHSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
30.8%
Ismail Mahdi run for 4 yds to the SHSU 27Similar
Q4 9:19
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+4
30.3%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Chris Dawn Jr. for 19 yds to the SHSU 8 for a 1ST down Texas State Penalty, (-15 Yards) to the SHSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
30.3%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:19
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
31.0%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:19
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+4
33.2%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Jaden Williams for 4 yds to the SHSU 19Similar
Q4 6:49
4TH & 6
OPP 19
+36
36.8%
Mason Shipley 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 22FG
16 plays · 72 yds · 6:4346% → 91%
Q4 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
46.4%
Jay Ducker run for 5 yds to the SHSU 25Similar
Q4 6:49
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+15
47.3%
Jay Ducker run for 15 yds to the SHSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
50.7%
Hunter Watson run for 6 yds to the SHSU 46Similar
Q4 6:49
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+1
51.5%
DJ McKinney run for 1 yd to the SHSU 47Similar
Q4 6:49
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+20
51.1%
Hunter Watson run for 20 yds to the TXST 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+12
56.9%
Hunter Watson run for 12 yds to the TXST 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
56.8%
PENALTY TXST Offside (Alexander,Kalil) 5 yards from TXST21 to TXST16. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:49
1ST & 5
OPP 16
+5
56.8%
Jay Ducker run for 5 yds to the TXST 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
45.5%
Hunter Watson run for 4 yds to the TXST 7Similar
Q4 1:14
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+1
41.3%
Jay Ducker run for 1 yd to the TXST 6Similar
Q4 1:07
3RD & 5
OPP 6
-2
38.3%
H. Watson takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:06
4TH & 7
OPP 8
+24
91.4%
Christian Pavon 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 23END OF GAME
2 plays · 14 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+14
78.2%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Joey Hobert for 14 yds to the TXST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:06
Christian Pavon 24 yd FG GOOD
+70.1
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+21.8
TD · Q3 0:51
Jay Ducker run for 1 yd for a TD (Christian Pavon KICK)
+15.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com