Try the model
SHSU

Sam Houston 34 at Rice 14

RICE
2024 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2024 · Rice Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · RICE
modelRICE aheadSHSU aheadconfidence bandkey playRICE scoreSHSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGEnd of GameFG-5.6RICE 61.4%Christian Pavon 52 yd FG GOODAWAY 17 - HOME 0 · Q1 3:37
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 3:37 · Christian Pavon 52 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+55.5+27.80−27.8−55.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 31Home team on offense−7.2Score differential−3.2Pregame prior+20.0Garbage-time factor−1.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 3:37: Christian Pavon 52 yd FG GOOD — SHSU win probability +5.6 pts (now 39%) (top driver: SHSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:53: Ife Adeyi 32 Yd pass from Hunter Watson (Christian Pavon Kick) — SHSU win probability +19.7 pts (now 69%) (top driver: SHSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:17: John Gentry run for 1 yd for a TD (Christian Pavon KICK) — SHSU win probability +19.3 pts (now 88%) (top driver: SHSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:31: Dean Connors run for 15 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK) — RICE win probability +15.3 pts (now 29%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 3:38: Christian Pavon 26 yd FG GOOD — SHSU win probability +13.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: SHSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
RICE made the numbers' call on 8 of 9SHSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 13:27RICE 4th & 8 at RICE 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.9%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:21SHSU 4th & 1 at SHSU 33, tied
    Close callPunted · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.4%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:54RICE 4th & 7 at RICE 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.9%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:20RICE 4th & 6 at RICE 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.9%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:37SHSU 4th & 5 at RICE 35, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.5%−0.4
    45% to make
    Punt
    35.0%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:54RICE 4th & 7 at SHSU 19, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.4%−0.5
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.0%
    77% to make
    Punt
    54.5%−4.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:57SHSU 4th & 6 at SHSU 24, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.0%−1.0
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:32SHSU 4th & 17 at SHSU 41, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.0%−1.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:03RICE 4th & 10 at RICE 21, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.2%−1.5
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.7%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:53RICE 4th & 3 at RICE 32, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.6%−0.9
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:38SHSU 4th & 5 at RICE 8, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.3%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.5%
    90% to make
    Punt
    70.9%−10.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:10RICE 4th & 20 at RICE 25, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.6%−4.4
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:58SHSU 4th & 13 at RICE 49, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.9%−1.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:10RICE 4th & 15 at RICE 47, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.7%−0.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:07SHSU 4th & 7 at RICE 36, up 20
    Close callPunted · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    97.5%−0.2
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.3%−0.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:14RICE 4th & 14 at RICE 4, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.6
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.8%
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:07SHSU 4th & 3 at RICE 28, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    98.4%−0.2
    60% to make
    Punt
    97.1%−1.5
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:37SHSU 4th & 11 at RICE 11, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.1%
    87% to make
    Punt
    98.1%−0.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
RICE made the numbers' call on 2 of 2SHSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 9:42SHSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:52SHSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:17RICE Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:53SHSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:17SHSU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:31RICE Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
RICEDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5874% → 74%
Q1 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
74.4%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Matt SykesSimilar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+2
74.3%
Dean Connors run for 2 yds to the RICE 41Similar
Q1 13:27
4TH & 8
OWN 41
0
74.1%
Alex Bacchetta punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Emon Allen at the SHSU 24Similar
Q1 13:27
3RD & 8
OWN 41
0
74.2%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4426% → 26%
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
74.1%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Noah SmithSimilar
Q1 12:37
2ND & 8
OWN 26
-6
74.0%
Hunter Watson sacked by Charlie Looes for a loss of 6 yards to the SHSU 20Similar
Q1 11:54
3RD & 14
OWN 20
+13
74.0%
Hunter Watson run for 13 yds to the SHSU 33Similar
Q1 11:21
4TH & 1
OWN 33
+2
73.8%
Jadon Cardell punt for 44 yds , Sean Fresch returns for 2 yds to the RICE 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2774% → 73%
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
73.8%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Braylen WalkerSimilar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+4
73.7%
Dean Connors run for 4 yds to the RICE 28Similar
Q1 11:21
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
73.6%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:54
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
73.1%
Alex Bacchetta punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Emon Allen at the SHSU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 4TD
1 play · 67 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+67
71.6%
Qua'Vez Humphreys 67 Yd pass from Hunter Watson (Christian Pavon Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 5INT TD
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:5072% → 69%
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
71.8%
Taji Atkins run for 1 yd to the RICE 26Similar
Q1 8:52
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-30
69.3%
David Fisher 30 Yd Interception Return (Christian Pavon Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2569% → 68%
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
69.2%
Dean Connors run for 1 yd to the RICE 27Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 11
OWN 27
+5
69.2%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Boden GroenSimilar
Q1 8:45
3RD & 6
OWN 32
0
69.2%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:20
4TH & 6
OWN 32
0
68.1%
Alex Bacchetta punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Emon Allen at the SHSU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 7FG
9 plays · 42 yds · 3:4333% → 39%
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
67.3%
John Gentry run for 7 yds to the SHSU 30Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 3
OWN 30
0
67.1%
Hunter Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+10
67.4%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Qua'Vez Humphreys for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
66.9%
John Gentry run for 4 yds to the SHSU 44Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+16
66.9%
Hunter Watson run for 16 yds to the RICE 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
66.9%
John Gentry run for 1 yd to the RICE 39Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+4
66.9%
DJ McKinney run for 4 yds to the RICE 35Similar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 5
OPP 35
0
67.0%
Hunter Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:37
4TH & 5
OPP 35
+52
61.4%
Christian Pavon 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 8MISSED FG
9 plays · 61 yds · 3:3661% → 58%
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+26
61.2%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Braylen Walker for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
62.1%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Dean ConnorsSimilar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+3
62.2%
Dean Connors run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 3:30
3RD & 6
50
+28
62.1%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Matt Sykes for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
62.6%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Tyson ThompsonSimilar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+1
62.6%
E.J. Warner run for 1 yd to the SHSU 19Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 19
0
58.1%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:54
4TH & 7
OPP 19
+37
58.0%
Tim Horn 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5745% → 46%
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
55.5%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Ife AdeyiSimilar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
55.4%
Hunter Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
55.8%
Hunter Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:57
4TH & 6
OWN 24
+20
54.0%
Jadon Cardell punt for 46 yds , Sean Fresch returns for 20 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 10TD
5 plays · 50 yds · 2:4057% → 62%
Q2 13:57
1ST & 10
50
+4
57.1%
Dean Connors run for 4 yds to the SHSU 46Similar
Q2 13:57
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+10
57.1%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Matt Sykes for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
57.1%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Dean Connors for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
57.5%
Taji Atkins run for 3 yds to the SHSU 22Similar
Q2 11:17
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+22
61.9%
Kobie Campbell 22 Yd pass from E.J. Warner (Tim Horn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 11PUNT
10 plays · 16 yds · 4:4539% → 44%
Q2 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
61.1%
Hunter Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
61.2%
Noah Smith run for 6 yds to the SHSU 31Similar
Q2 11:17
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+16
61.9%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Qua'Vez Humphreys for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
60.4%
Ife Adeyi run for 9 yds to the SHSU 46Similar
Q2 11:17
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+2
59.9%
Jay Ducker run for 2 yds to the SHSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
60.0%
Jay Ducker run for 1 yd to the SHSU 49Similar
Q2 11:17
2ND & 9
OWN 49
-6
60.0%
Hunter Watson sacked by Ty Morris for a loss of 6 yards to the SHSU 43Similar
Q2 11:17
3RD & 15
OWN 43
-2
61.2%
Hunter Watson sacked by Myron Morrison for a loss of 2 yards to the SHSU 41Similar
Q2 6:32
4TH & 17
OWN 41
+9
56.2%
Jadon Cardell punt for 47 yds , Sean Fresch returns for 9 yds to the RICE 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 2:2955% → 51%
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
54.8%
Dean Connors run for 2 yds to the RICE 23Similar
Q2 6:32
2ND & 8
OWN 23
-10
54.9%
PENALTY Rice Holding (Groen,Boden) 10 yards from Rice23 to Rice13. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:32
2ND & 18
OWN 13
+3
54.7%
Dean Connors run for 3 yds to the RICE 16Similar
Q2 6:32
3RD & 15
OWN 16
+5
53.8%
Christian Francisco run for 5 yds to the RICE 21Similar
Q2 4:03
4TH & 10
OWN 21
0
50.8%
Alex Bacchetta punt for 40 yds , Emon Allen returns for no gain to the SHSU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 13TD
6 plays · 56 yds · 2:1049% → 69%
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
51.4%
John Gentry run for 2 yds to the SHSU 46Similar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 8
OWN 46
0
51.4%
Hunter Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:03
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+11
51.9%
Hunter Watson run for 11 yds to the RICE 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
51.3%
John Gentry run for 6 yds to the RICE 37Similar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+5
51.1%
DJ McKinney run for 5 yds to the RICE 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
31.4%
Ife Adeyi 32 Yd pass from Hunter Watson (Christian Pavon Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:0039% → 38%
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
39.2%
E.J. Warner sacked by Jaylon Jimmerson for a loss of 8 yards to the RICE 17Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+5
38.6%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Boden GroenSimilar
Q2 1:53
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+10
38.4%
Dean Connors run for 10 yds to the RICE 32Similar
Q2 0:53
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+2
38.2%
Alex Bacchetta punt for 48 yds , Emon Allen returns for 2 yds to the SHSU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:5369% → 68%
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-3
31.1%
Hunter Watson sacked for a loss of 3 yards to the SHSU 19Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 13
OWN 19
+5
31.9%
John Gentry run for 5 yds to the SHSU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 16TD
11 plays · 76 yds · 4:3966% → 88%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
33.8%
Hunter Watson pass complete to John GentrySimilar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+2
33.4%
John Gentry run for 2 yds to the SHSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
33.7%
John Gentry run for 2 yds to the SHSU 36Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 8
OWN 36
-2
33.1%
Hunter Watson sacked by Michael Larbie for a loss of 2 yards to the SHSU 34Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+13
34.3%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Simeon Evans for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+31
32.3%
Hunter Watson run for 31 yds to the RICE 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
31.3%
DJ McKinney run for 4 yds to the RICE 18Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+15
31.3%
DJ McKinney run for 15 yds to the RICE 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
31.1%
Hunter Watson run for 2 yds to the RICE 1Similar
Q3 10:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
11.8%
John Gentry run for 1 yd for a TD (Christian Pavon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 17TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 2:4615% → 29%
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
14.9%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Matt Sykes for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
15.5%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Dean Connors for 9 yds to the SHSU 44Similar
Q3 10:17
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+4
16.3%
Dean Connors run for 4 yds to the SHSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+16
16.0%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Kobie Campbell for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
16.9%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+9
13.6%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Dean ConnorsSimilar
Q3 7:31
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+15
28.8%
Dean Connors run for 15 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 18FG
11 plays · 67 yds · 3:5378% → 94%
Q3 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
21.8%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Noah Smith Noah Smith fumbled, recovered by SHSU Jyzaiah RockwellSimilar
Q3 7:31
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+11
21.6%
Jay Ducker run for 11 yds to the SHSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+21
20.7%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Elijah Sohn for 21 yds to the RICE 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-6
20.1%
Hunter Watson sacked by Elroyal Morris III for a loss of 6 yards to the RICE 40Similar
Q3 7:31
2ND & 16
OPP 40
+6
20.5%
Hunter Watson run for 6 yds to the RICE 34Similar
Q3 7:31
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+21
20.5%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Ife Adeyi for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
19.8%
Malik Phillips run for 4 yds to the RICE 9Similar
Q3 7:31
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+1
19.8%
Jay Ducker run for 1 yd to the RICE 8Similar
Q3 7:31
3RD & 5
OPP 8
0
20.1%
Hunter Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:38
4TH & 5
OPP 8
+26
6.5%
Christian Pavon 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 1:2810% → 8%
Q3 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-7
9.7%
E.J. Warner sacked by Matthew Aribisala for a loss of 7 yards to the RICE 28Similar
Q3 3:38
2ND & 17
OWN 28
0
9.3%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:38
3RD & 17
OWN 28
-3
9.2%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Dean ConnorsSimilar
Q3 2:10
4TH & 20
OWN 25
0
8.3%
Alex Bacchetta punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Emon Allen at the SHSU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 20PUNT
11 plays · 26 yds · 5:1294% → 96%
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
5.6%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Ife AdeyiSimilar
Q3 2:10
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+2
5.7%
DJ McKinney run for 2 yds to the SHSU 26Similar
Q3 2:10
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+14
5.8%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Jay Ducker for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
4.4%
John Gentry run for 1 yd to the SHSU 39Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+7
4.4%
Hunter Watson run for 7 yds to the SHSU 46Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+3
4.4%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Simeon EvansSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+5
4.8%
PENALTY Rice Offside (Arkansas,DJ) 5 yards from SHSU49 to Rice46, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
4.2%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Ife AdeyiSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 39
0
4.2%
Hunter Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 49
0
4.2%
Hunter Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:58
4TH & 13
OPP 49
0
3.7%
Jadon Cardell punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 21DOWNS
11 plays · 45 yds · 2:484% → 3%
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
4.0%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+6
3.9%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Boden GroenSimilar
Q4 11:58
3RD & 4
OWN 17
+10
4.0%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Matt Sykes for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
4.1%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+12
4.0%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Kobie Campbell for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
4.3%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+13
4.2%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Boden Groen for 13 yds to the SHSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
4.5%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Dean ConnorsSimilar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 15
OWN 47
0
4.1%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:58
3RD & 15
OWN 47
0
4.1%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Dean ConnorsSimilar
Q4 9:10
4TH & 15
OWN 47
0
3.2%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Dean ConnorsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:0398% → 98%
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
2.3%
Jay Ducker run for 1 yd to the SHSU 45Similar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+15
2.3%
Rice Penalty, Personal Foul (Blake Boenisch) to the RICE 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
2.2%
Jay Ducker run for 3 yds to the RICE 36Similar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 7
OPP 36
0
2.2%
Hunter Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:10
3RD & 7
OPP 36
0
2.3%
Hunter Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:07
4TH & 7
OPP 36
0
1.9%
Jadon Cardell punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Sean Fresch at the RICE 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:533% → 2%
Q4 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
2.5%
Dean Connors run for no gain to the RICE 8Similar
Q4 7:07
2ND & 10
OWN 8
0
2.4%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:07
3RD & 10
OWN 8
0
2.4%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:07
4TH & 10
OWN 8
-4
2.4%
PENALTY Rice Delay Of Game 4 yards from Rice08 to Rice04. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:14
4TH & 14
OWN 4
0
1.5%
Alex Bacchetta punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 24MISSED FG
13 plays · 24 yds · 4:3799% → 100%
Q4 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
1.5%
DJ McKinney run for 1 yd to the RICE 34Similar
Q4 6:14
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+3
1.5%
Lonnie Adksim run for 3 yds to the RICE 37Similar
Q4 6:14
3RD & 12
OPP 37
+9
1.5%
John Gentry run for 9 yds to the RICE 28Similar
Q4 4:07
4TH & 3
OPP 28
+3
0.7%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Elijah Sohn for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+16
0.7%
John Gentry run for 16 yds to the RICE 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
0.6%
John Gentry run for no gain to the RICE 9Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-4
0.3%
Hunter Watson sacked by Demone Green for a loss of 4 yards to the RICE 13Similar
Q4 1:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
+2
0.4%
John Gentry run for 2 yds to the RICE 11Similar
Q4 1:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+28
0.4%
Christian Pavon 28 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 25INT
9 plays · 36 yds · 1:310% → 0%
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
0.3%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Dean ConnorsSimilar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+10
0.3%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Matt SykesSimilar
Q4 1:37
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+14
0.3%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Boden Groen for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
0.3%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
0.3%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:37
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+10
0.3%
Dean Connors run for 10 yds to the SHSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
0.3%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+3
0.3%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Kobie CampbellSimilar
Q4 0:06
3RD & 7
OPP 44
0
0.3%
E.J. Warner pass intercepted Jaidan Scott return for no gain to the SHSU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 26END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-2
0.4%
Kneel down by Sam Houston at SHSU30 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:53
Ife Adeyi 32 Yd pass from Hunter Watson (Christian Pavon Kick)
-19.7
TD · Q3 10:17
John Gentry run for 1 yd for a TD (Christian Pavon KICK)
-19.3
TD · Q3 7:31
Dean Connors run for 15 yds for a TD (Tim Horn KICK)
+15.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com