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UNM

New Mexico 50 at New Mexico State 40

NMSU
2024 · Week 5 · Sep 28, 2024 · Aggie Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NMSU
modelNMSU aheadUNM aheadconfidence bandkey playNMSU scoreUNM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 13:02 · George Eberle punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Javen Jacobs at the UNM 13
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 49Home team on offense+0.6Pregame prior−17.6Score differential−0.3Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:44: Devon Dampier run for 11 yds for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK) — UNM win probability +8.2 pts (now 75%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:22: Devon Dampier run for 2 yds for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK) — UNM win probability +8.4 pts (now 87%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:53: Devon Dampier run for 24 yds for a TD New Mexico Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (McKenzie Agnello) to the NMSU 0 (Two-Point Conversion failed) — UNM win probability +9.4 pts (now 87%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 1:27: Luke Drzewiecki 20 yd FG GOOD — UNM win probability +10.0 pts (now 89%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:13: NaQuari Rogers run for 4 yds for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki PAT MISSED) — UNM win probability +10.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NMSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8UNM made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 13:30NMSU 4th & 7 at NMSU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:30UNM 4th & 1 at NMSU 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    70.6%−0.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    70.2%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:46UNM 4th & 7 at UNM 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.8%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:06NMSU 4th & 10 at UNM 40, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 35.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.8%
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.7%−0.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    34.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:43UNM 4th & 10 at UNM 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.6%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:02NMSU 4th & 4 at NMSU 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.9%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:15UNM 4th & 9 at UNM 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.2%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:51NMSU 4th & 13 at NMSU 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.7%−1.0
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:04NMSU 4th & 6 at NMSU 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%−0.5
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:06NMSU 4th & 2 at UNM 25, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    14.9%−0.9
    66% to make
    Punt
    10.1%−5.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:27UNM 4th & 3 at NMSU 3, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 79.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.8%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.1%−1.7
    93% to make
    Punt
    68.5%−11.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:53NMSU 4th & 12 at UNM 12, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.4%−1.1
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.5%
    86% to make
    Punt
    11.9%−4.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:30NMSU 4th & 3 at NMSU 39, down 16
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.3%−1.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:21UNM 4th & 6 at UNM 27, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.5%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NMSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5UNM made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 9:42UNM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:25NMSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:44UNM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:22UNM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:53UNM Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    85.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    85.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:06NMSU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:13UNM Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    92.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 6:09NMSU Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    12.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    11.4%−0.9
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 5:14UNM Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 2:34NMSU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.9%−0.4
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 1:46UNM Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 0:52NMSU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NMSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:3027% → 27%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
26.8%
Santino Marucci pass complete to Seth McGowan for 4 yds to the NMSU 29Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
27.2%
Seth McGowan run for 5 yds to the NMSU 34Similar
Q1 14:15
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-3
27.2%
Mike Washington run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMSU 28 Mike Washington fumbled, recovered by NMSU Seth McGowanSimilar
Q1 13:30
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
27.4%
George Eberle punt for 36 yds, downed at the UNM 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 2TD
10 plays · 64 yds · 3:4873% → 73%
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
27.5%
Devon Dampier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-10
27.5%
SANDERS, Eli rush to the right for a gain of 1 yard to the UNM37 (PELETI, Buddha). PENALTY UNM Holding on BECKETT, Baraka enforced 10 yards from the UNM36 to the UNM26 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 20
OWN 26
0
27.6%
Devon Dampier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 20
OWN 26
+44
27.6%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Caleb Medford for 44 yds to the NMSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
27.4%
Javen Jacobs run for 5 yds to the NMSU 25Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+4
27.3%
NaQuari Rogers run for 4 yds to the NMSU 21Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 1
OPP 21
0
27.4%
NaQuari Rogers run for no gain to the NMSU 21Similar
Q1 13:30
4TH & 1
OPP 21
+3
27.4%
Javen Jacobs run for 3 yds to the NMSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+15
27.3%
Luke Wysong run for 15 yds to the NMSU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
27.1%
NaQuari Rogers run for 3 yds for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 3TD
1 play · 84 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+84
29.5%
Larenzo McMillan run for 84 yds for a TD (Abraham Montano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 24 yds · 2:3971% → 70%
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
29.4%
NaQuari Rogers run for 4 yds to the UNM 29Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+6
29.3%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Luke Wysong for 6 yds to the UNM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
29.3%
NaQuari Rogers run for 6 yds to the UNM 41Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+5
29.0%
NaQuari Rogers run for 5 yds to the UNM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
29.0%
Devon Dampier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+3
29.1%
Eli Sanders run for 3 yds to the UNM 49Similar
Q1 9:25
3RD & 7
OWN 49
0
29.1%
Devon Dampier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:46
4TH & 7
OWN 49
0
30.5%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 5MISSED FG
14 plays · 58 yds · 5:4031% → 33%
Q1 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
30.5%
Mike Washington run for 3 yds to the NMSU 5Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 7
OWN 5
+1
31.0%
Mike Washington run for 1 yd to the NMSU 6Similar
Q1 5:15
3RD & 6
OWN 6
+8
30.7%
Santino Marucci pass complete to TJ Pride for 8 yds to the NMSU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+11
31.3%
Mike Washington run for 11 yds to the NMSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
31.3%
Santino Marucci run for 11 yds to the NMSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
31.6%
Santino Marucci pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+6
31.5%
Santino Marucci pass complete to PJ Johnson III for 6 yds to the NMSU 42Similar
Q1 5:15
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+5
31.8%
Santino Marucci pass complete to TJ Pride for 5 yds to the NMSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+13
32.2%
Santino Marucci pass complete to Seth McGowan for 13 yds to the UNM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
32.4%
Mike Washington run for no gain to the UNM 40Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
32.3%
Santino Marucci pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:15
3RD & 10
OPP 40
0
31.9%
Santino Marucci pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:06
4TH & 10
OPP 40
+57
33.3%
Abraham Montano 57 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2368% → 67%
Q1 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
31.7%
Devon Dampier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:06
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
32.0%
Devon Dampier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:06
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
32.4%
Devon Dampier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:43
4TH & 10
OWN 40
0
33.4%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 56 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 42 yds · 1:5834% → 35%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+8
33.8%
Seth McGowan run for 8 yds to the NMSU 12Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 12
-10
34.0%
New Mexico State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the NMSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
35.1%
Monte Watkins run for 3 yds to the NMSU 43Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+3
35.4%
Monte Watkins run for 3 yds to the NMSU 46Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 46
0
34.9%
Santino Marucci pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:02
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
35.2%
George Eberle punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Javen Jacobs at the UNM 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:4766% → 64%
Q2 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
34.0%
Javen Jacobs run for 2 yds to the UNM 15Similar
Q2 13:02
2ND & 8
OWN 15
-5
34.1%
DAMPIER, Devon pass to the left complete for 7 yards to DAVIS, Ryan caught at the UNM22 and advanced to the UNM22 (CHARLES, Josiah). PENALTY Before the snap, UNM Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the UNM15 to the UNM10. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 13:02
2ND & 13
OWN 10
+4
34.2%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Trace Bruckler for 4 yds to the UNM 14Similar
Q2 13:02
3RD & 9
OWN 14
0
34.7%
Devon Dampier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:15
4TH & 9
OWN 14
+5
36.1%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 42 yds , TJ Pride returns for 5 yds to the NMSU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:2438% → 36%
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-2
37.8%
Mike Washington run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMSU 47Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 12
OWN 47
-1
36.9%
Santino Marucci run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMSU 46Similar
Q2 11:15
3RD & 13
OWN 46
0
35.7%
Santino Marucci pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:51
4TH & 13
OWN 46
0
36.0%
George Eberle punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 10TD
8 plays · 95 yds · 3:0765% → 75%
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
35.4%
Javen Jacobs run for 3 yds to the UNM 8Similar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 7
OWN 8
+1
37.2%
Javen Jacobs run for 1 yd to the UNM 9Similar
Q2 8:33
3RD & 6
OWN 9
+11
37.9%
Devon Dampier run for 11 yds to the UNM 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+41
36.4%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Nic Trujillo for 41 yds to the NMSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
33.7%
Javen Jacobs run for 6 yds to the NMSU 33Similar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+12
32.8%
JACOBS, Javen rush to the left for a gain of 12 yards to the NMSU21 (EARLY, Dylan). PENALTY NMSU Personal Foul on EARLY, Dylan enforced half the distance from the goal, 11 yards from the NMSU22 to the NMSU11 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
24.6%
Devon Dampier run for 11 yds for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3229% → 28%
Q2 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
28.5%
Seth McGowan run for no gain to the NMSU 15Similar
Q2 6:36
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+4
28.5%
Seth McGowan run for 4 yds to the NMSU 19Similar
Q2 6:36
3RD & 6
OWN 19
0
28.0%
Santino Marucci pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:04
4TH & 6
OWN 19
0
27.8%
George Eberle punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 12TD
12 plays · 67 yds · 4:4274% → 87%
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
26.5%
Eli Sanders run for 7 yds to the UNM 40Similar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+13
25.7%
Devon Dampier run for 13 yds to the NMSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
25.2%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Luke Wysong for 3 yds to the NMSU 44Similar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 7
OPP 44
0
25.0%
Devon Dampier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:04
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+8
25.3%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Luke Wysong for 8 yds to the NMSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
24.8%
NaQuari Rogers run for 8 yds to the NMSU 28Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 2
OPP 28
+1
21.9%
NaQuari Rogers run for 1 yd to the NMSU 27Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+6
22.2%
NaQuari Rogers run for 6 yds to the NMSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
21.9%
New Mexico State Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Tyler Martinez) to the NMSU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
21.9%
NaQuari Rogers run for 6 yds to the NMSU 2Similar
Q2 0:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
13.5%
Devon Dampier run for 2 yds for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 13FG
5 plays · 35 yds · 0:1118% → 26%
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
17.9%
Santino Marucci run for 11 yds to the NMSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+24
18.8%
Monte Watkins run for 24 yds to the UNM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+47
25.7%
Abraham Montano 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 14TD
9 plays · 60 yds · 3:0177% → 87%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
23.5%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Luke Wysong for 16 yds to the UNM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
22.4%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Ryan Davis for 10 yds to the NMSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
22.3%
Devon Dampier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+4
22.3%
Sol-Jay Maiava-Peters run for 4 yds to the NMSU 45Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+6
22.6%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Sol-Jay Maiava-Peters for 6 yds to the NMSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+11
22.3%
Sol-Jay Maiava-Peters run for 11 yds to the NMSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
22.2%
Sol-Jay Maiava-Peters run for 4 yds to the NMSU 24Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 6
OPP 24
0
22.2%
Devon Dampier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:53
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+24
12.7%
Devon Dampier run for 24 yds for a TD New Mexico Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (McKenzie Agnello) to the NMSU 0 (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 15TD
10 plays · 60 yds · 4:4716% → 24%
Q3 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
16.1%
TJ Pride run for 1 yd to the NMSU 41Similar
Q3 11:53
2ND & 9
OWN 41
-3
16.2%
Santino Marucci sacked by Jayden Wilson for a loss of 3 yards to the NMSU 38Similar
Q3 11:53
3RD & 12
OWN 38
+12
15.2%
Santino Marucci pass complete to Kordell David for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:53
1ST & 10
50
+7
16.5%
Seth McGowan run for 7 yds to the UNM 43Similar
Q3 11:53
2ND & 3
OPP 43
0
17.0%
Santino Marucci pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:53
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+10
16.8%
Santino Marucci run for 10 yds to the UNM 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
17.2%
Mike Washington run for 5 yds to the UNM 28Similar
Q3 11:53
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+1
17.4%
Mike Washington run for 1 yd to the UNM 27Similar
Q3 11:53
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+2
17.0%
Seth McGowan run for 2 yds to the UNM 25Similar
Q3 7:06
4TH & 2
OPP 25
+25
23.8%
Santino Marucci pass complete to Mike Washington for 25 yds for a TD (Abraham Montano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 16FG
13 plays · 72 yds · 5:3977% → 89%
Q3 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
22.8%
DAMPIER, Devon pass deep to the left incomplete intended for WYSONG, Luke thrown to the NMSU50. PENALTY NMSU Pass Interference on HOBBS, Dakerric enforced 15 yards to the UNM40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
21.4%
Devon Dampier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:06
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+9
21.7%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Ryan Davis for 9 yds to the UNM 49Similar
Q3 7:06
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+3
21.8%
NaQuari Rogers run for 3 yds to the NMSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-15
21.4%
DAMPIER, Devon pass to the left complete for 10 yards to DAVIS, Ryan to the NMSU38 (COX, Josiah), out of bounds. PENALTY UNM Pass Interference on WYSONG, Luke enforced 15 yards to the UNM37. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 7:06
1ST & 25
OWN 37
+40
22.7%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Ryan Davis for 40 yds to the NMSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
20.9%
Sol-Jay Maiava-Peters run for 4 yds to the NMSU 19Similar
Q3 7:06
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+4
20.9%
Devon Dampier run for 4 yds to the NMSU 15Similar
Q3 7:06
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+6
21.7%
NaQuari Rogers run for 6 yds to the NMSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
20.9%
NaQuari Rogers run for 1 yd to the NMSU 8Similar
Q3 7:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
20.9%
Devon Dampier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
21.5%
Devon Dampier run for 5 yds to the NMSU 3Similar
Q3 1:27
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
11.5%
Luke Drzewiecki 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 17FG
6 plays · 63 yds · 1:3417% → 20%
Q3 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
16.7%
WATKINS, Monte rush up the middle for no gain to the NMSU25 (TUITELE, Moso'oipala). PENALTY UNM Face mask on TUITELE, Moso'oipala enforced 15 yards from the NMSU25 to the NMSU40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+50
17.7%
Santino Marucci pass complete to TJ Pride for 50 yds to the UNM 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
20.2%
Santino Marucci pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-2
20.0%
Seth McGowan run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNM 12Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
0
17.8%
Santino Marucci pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+30
19.5%
Abraham Montano 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 18TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 2:4080% → 94%
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
20.0%
Javen Jacobs run for 5 yds to the UNM 30Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+14
19.6%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Luke Wysong for 14 yds to the UNM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+47
18.1%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Caleb Medford for 47 yds to the NMSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
17.1%
Javen Jacobs run for 5 yds to the NMSU 4Similar
Q4 12:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
6.3%
NaQuari Rogers run for 4 yds for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:3610% → 10%
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
10.3%
Santino Marucci pass complete to Kordell David for 7 yds to the NMSU 39Similar
Q4 12:06
2ND & 3
OWN 39
0
10.9%
Santino Marucci pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:06
3RD & 3
OWN 39
0
10.8%
Santino Marucci pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:30
4TH & 3
OWN 39
0
10.2%
George Eberle punt for 61 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 3:0994% → 95%
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+8
6.5%
NaQuari Rogers run for 8 yds to the UNM 18Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 2
OWN 18
+5
6.5%
NaQuari Rogers run for 5 yds to the UNM 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
6.5%
Eli Sanders run for 4 yds to the UNM 27Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 6
OWN 27
0
6.5%
Devon Dampier run for no gain to the UNM 27 Devon Dampier fumbled, recovered by UNM Devon Dampier D. Dampier return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q4 11:30
3RD & 6
OWN 27
0
6.9%
Devon Dampier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:21
4TH & 6
OWN 27
+12
5.4%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 36 yds , TJ Pride returns for 12 yds to the NMSU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 21TD
6 plays · 51 yds · 2:127% → 16%
Q4 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
7.3%
Mike Washington run for 6 yds to the UNM 45Similar
Q4 8:21
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+21
7.8%
Santino Marucci pass complete to Seth McGowan for 21 yds to the UNM 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
8.4%
New Mexico State Penalty, Illegal Substitution (TEAM) to the UNM 29Similar
Q4 8:21
1ST & 15
OPP 29
+15
7.9%
MARUCCI, Santino pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for DAVID, Kordell thrown to the UNM0. PENALTY UNM Pass Interference on POLA-GATES, Noa enforced 15 yards to the UNM14 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
8.3%
Mike Washington run for 4 yds to the UNM 10Similar
Q4 6:09
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+10
16.4%
Mike Washington run for 10 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 22TD
3 plays · 51 yds · 0:5490% → 97%
Q4 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
9.8%
NaQuari Rogers run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:08
2ND & 9
50
0
9.7%
Devon Dampier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:14
3RD & 9
50
+50
3.4%
Javen Jacobs run for 50 yds for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 23TD
11 plays · 76 yds · 2:333% → 10%
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
3.1%
Seth McGowan run for no gain to the NMSU 24Similar
Q4 4:35
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
2.9%
Santino Marucci pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:35
3RD & 10
OWN 24
+14
2.8%
Santino Marucci pass complete to Kordell David for 14 yds to the NMSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
3.0%
Santino Marucci pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:35
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+15
3.0%
MARUCCI, Santino pass up the middle incomplete intended for LOWE, Jahrique; QB hurried by OLORUNFUNMI, Okiki. PENALTY UNM Roughing the Passer on OLORUNFUNMI, Okiki enforced 15 yards from the NMSU38 to the UNM47 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+16
3.2%
Mike Washington run for 16 yds to the UNM 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
3.7%
Santino Marucci pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:35
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+15
3.6%
Seth McGowan run for 15 yds to the UNM 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
3.8%
Santino Marucci pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:34
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+16
9.8%
Santino Marucci run for 16 yds for a TD (Abraham Montano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 24TD
5 plays · 46 yds · 0:1496% → 99%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
4.5%
NaQuari Rogers run for 9 yds to the NMSU 37Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+8
3.6%
NaQuari Rogers run for 8 yds to the NMSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
1.1%
NaQuari Rogers run for 29 yds for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 25TD
7 plays · 49 yds · 0:462% → 7%
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+12
1.9%
Santino Marucci pass complete to PJ Johnson III for 12 yds to the UNM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
2.0%
Santino Marucci pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:38
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+12
1.9%
Santino Marucci pass complete to Allen Ortiz for 12 yds to the UNM 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
2.3%
New Mexico Penalty, Offsides (David Murphy) to the UNM 20Similar
Q4 1:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-2
2.3%
Santino Marucci sacked by Antoineo Harris Jr. and David Murphy for a loss of 2 yards to the UNM 12Similar
Q4 1:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+10
2.2%
MARUCCI, Santino pass to the left incomplete intended for DAVID, Kordell thrown to the UNM0; QB hurried by JOHNSON, Dimitri. PENALTY UNM Pass Interference on MURPHY, David enforced 10 yards to the UNM2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 0:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
7.1%
Mike Washington run for 2 yds for a TD (Abraham Montano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 26END OF GAME
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:5296% → 96%
Q4 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
3.8%
[NH] Kneel down by UNM at UNM38 (team loss of 2).Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 38
-2
3.9%
[NH] Kneel down by DAMPIER, Devon at UNM36 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:13
NaQuari Rogers run for 4 yds for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki PAT MISSED)
-10.8
FG · Q3 1:27
Luke Drzewiecki 20 yd FG GOOD
-10
TD · Q3 11:53
Devon Dampier run for 24 yds for a TD New Mexico Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (McKenzie Agnello) to the NMSU 0 (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-9.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com