2024 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2024 · Elliott T. Bowers Stadium
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Win probability · SHSU
modelSHSU aheadNMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playSHSU scoreNMSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:39 · J.Ducker rushed for 1 yards. TOUCHDOWN.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 0:39: J.Ducker rushed for 1 yards. TOUCHDOWN. — SHSU win probability +2.0 pts (now 87%) (top driver: SHSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 6:34: H.Watson rushed for 8 yards. TOUCHDOWN. — SHSU win probability +3.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: SHSU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 10:35: J.Ducker rushed for 4 yards. Tackled by T.Martinez at SHS 48. — SHSU win probability +2.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: SHSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 13:35: J.Bauer pass complete. Catch made by S.Evans for 20 yards. TOUCHDOWN. — SHSU win probability +1.8 pts (now 100%) (top driver: SHSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 8:41: S.Marucci pass complete. Catch made by J.Lydiatt for 3 yards. TOUCHDOWN. — NMSU win probability +3.3 pts (now 4%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
SHSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8NMSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
- Q1 13:55SHSU 4th & 5 at SHSU 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 83.8% before the snapGo for it83.8%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call83.8%average punt
- Q1 12:09NMSU 4th & 8 at NMSU 29, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 16.6% before the snapGo for it16.6%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.6%average punt
- Q1 11:13SHSU 4th & 5 at SHSU 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 83.0% before the snapGo for it83.0%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call83.0%average punt
- Q1 6:41NMSU 4th & 10 at SHSU 15, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.6% before the snapGo for it18.4%−0.227% to convertField goalTheir call18.6%83% to makePunt17.8%−0.8average punt
- Q1 4:17NMSU 4th & 4 at NMSU 21, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.6% before the snapGo for it17.6%−0.247% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.8%average punt
- Q1 0:39SHSU 4th & 1 at NMSU 1, up 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call80.7%59% to convertField goal80.0%−0.794% to makePunt78.1%−2.6average punt
- Q2 14:57NMSU 4th & 5 at NMSU 40, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.0% before the snapGo for it16.0%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.0%average punt
- Q2 9:39SHSU 4th & 1 at NMSU 32, up 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call85.1%71% to convertField goal83.8%−1.351% to makePunt83.4%−1.7average punt
- Q2 1:55SHSU 4th & 7 at SHSU 49, up 18Close callPunted · 90.5% before the snapGo for it90.1%37% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call90.0%−0.1average punt
- Q3 13:27NMSU 4th & 5 at NMSU 32, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.3% before the snapGo for it8.2%−0.741% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.9%average punt
- Q3 12:11SHSU 4th & 4 at SHSU 41, up 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.8% before the snapGo for it94.1%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.3%average punt
- Q3 10:42NMSU 4th & 7 at NMSU 14, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.6% before the snapGo for it7.2%−0.735% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.9%average punt
- Q3 6:55SHSU 4th & 16 at NMSU 47, up 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.8% before the snapGo for it94.3%−1.116% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.4%average punt
- Q3 5:18NMSU 4th & 7 at NMSU 36, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.3% before the snapGo for it5.2%−0.537% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.7%average punt
- Q4 11:31NMSU 4th & 4 at NMSU 48, down 25Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.7%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.7%−0.1average punt
- Q4 1:56SHSU 4th & 10 at NMSU 29, up 17Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.5% before the snapGo for it98.3%−0.129% to convertField goalTheir call98.4%58% to makePunt97.7%−0.7average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SHSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4NMSU made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
- Q1 5:40SHSU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.3%97% to makeGo for two82.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:39SHSU Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call83.8%97% to makeGo for two83.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:34SHSU Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.4%97% to makeGo for two90.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:35SHSU Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.0%97% to makeGo for two99.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:41NMSU Touchdown, down 19 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick2.1%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call2.1%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSHSUDrive 1PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0588% → 88%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
88.3%
H.Watson steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for N.Smith.Similar
Q1 14:26
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-2
88.2%
J.Ducker rushed for -2 yards. Pushed out of bounds by T.Martinez at SHS 30.Similar
Q1 13:55
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+42
88.0%
J.Cardell punts 42 yards to NMS 28, Center-Z.Stricker. J.Smith returned punt from the NMS 28. Tackled by C.Johnson at NMS 37. PENALTY on NMS-J.White, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, accepted.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3312% → 12%
SHSUDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:4388% → 87%
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
87.5%
H.Watson steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for I.Adeyi.Similar
Q1 11:18
3RD & 5
OWN 32
0
87.2%
H.Watson steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for Q.Humphreys.Similar
Q1 11:13
4TH & 5
OWN 32
+41
87.1%
J.Cardell punts 41 yards to NMS 27, Center-Z.Stricker. Fair catch by J.Smith.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 4FG13 plays · 58 yds · 4:2513% → 15%
Q1 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
87.2%
S.Marucci pass complete. Catch made by T.Pride for 15 yards. Tackled by I.Cash at NMS 42.Similar
Q1 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
86.8%
S.Marucci steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for P.Johnson.Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+6
86.7%
S.Marucci pass complete. Catch made by J.Lydiatt for 6 yards. Tackled by I.Cash at SHS 46.Similar
Q1 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
86.4%
S.Marucci pass complete. Catch made by L.Neville for 2 yards. Tackled by B.Hayes at SHS 44.Similar
Q1 8:53
2ND & 8
OPP 44
-1
86.1%
M.Watkins rushed for -1 yards. Tackled by D.Fisher; K.DuJour at SHS 45.Similar
Q1 8:16
3RD & 9
OPP 45
+15
86.0%
S.Marucci pass complete. Catch made by J.Lydiatt for 15 yards. Tackled by D.Fisher at SHS 30.Similar
Q1 7:21
2ND & 9
OPP 29
-1
85.4%
S.Marucci pass complete. Catch made by M.Washington for -1 yards. Tackled by I.Cash at SHS 30. PENALTY on SHS-K.Gaither, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, accepted.Similar
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
85.2%
S.Marucci steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for P.Johnson.Similar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
85.1%
S.Marucci steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for K.David.Similar
Q1 6:45
3RD & 10
OPP 15
0
85.4%
S.Marucci steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for P.Johnson.Similar
Q1 6:41
4TH & 10
OPP 15
+32
85.3%
A.Montano 32 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-C.Eberle, Holder-G.Eberle.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 5TD4 plays · 75 yds · 0:5685% → 87%
NMSUDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0814% → 14%
Q1 4:17
4TH & 4
OWN 21
+49
86.2%
G.Eberle punts 49 yards to SHS 30, Center-C.Eberle. I.Adeyi returned punt from the SHS 30. Tackled by A.Munoz at SHS 45.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 7INT2 plays · 13 yds · 0:2286% → 86%
NMSUDrive 8INT3 plays · 14 yds · 1:0214% → 15%
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
85.7%
S.McGowan rushed for 7 yards. Tackled by J.Jimmerson; K.DuJour at NMS 22.Similar
Q1 3:09
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+7
85.4%
S.Marucci pass complete. Catch made by S.McGowan for 7 yards. Tackled by T.Fields at NMS 29.Similar
Q1 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-8
85.1%
S.Marucci pass INTERCEPTED at SHS 43. Intercepted by I.Cash at SHS 43. Tackled by S.McGowan at NMS 35.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 9TD9 plays · 35 yds · 1:4686% → 87%
NMSUDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:3813% → 13%
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
87.0%
S.Marucci steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for J.Smith.Similar
Q2 14:57
4TH & 5
OWN 40
+43
87.2%
G.Eberle punts 43 yards to SHS 17, Center-C.Eberle. I.Adeyi returned punt from the SHS 17. Pushed out of bounds by J.Cox at SHS 30. PENALTY on SHS-SHS, Defensive Illegal Blindside Block, 10 yards, accepted.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 11TD18 plays · 80 yds · 8:1287% → 92%
Q2 13:16
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+13
87.7%
H.Watson pass complete. Catch made by I.Adeyi for 13 yards. Tackled by D.Early at SHS 47.Similar
Q2 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
88.3%
H.Watson steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for I.Adeyi.Similar
Q2 12:38
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
88.2%
H.Watson steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for J.Gentry.Similar
Q2 12:31
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+7
87.7%
H.Watson rushed for 7 yards. H.Watson FUMBLES, forced by N.Session. Fumble RECOVERED by SHS-J.Gentry at NMS 46. Tackled by NMS at NMS 46.Similar
Q2 11:51
4TH & 3
OPP 46
+5
87.6%
PENALTY on NMS-S.Aupiu, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
88.3%
H.Watson pass complete. Catch made by S.Evans for 1 yards. Tackled by N.Session at NMS 40.Similar
Q2 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-2
88.5%
J.Ducker rushed for -2 yards. Tackled by D.Hobbs; T.Martinez at NMS 29.Similar
Q2 8:22
2ND & 12
OPP 29
0
88.4%
H.Watson steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for N.Smith.Similar
Q2 8:17
3RD & 12
OPP 29
+13
88.1%
H.Watson pass complete. Catch made by N.Smith for 13 yards. Pushed out of bounds by D.Early at NMS 16.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 12INT5 plays · 13 yds · 1:2692% → 92%
NMSUDrive 13INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
91.6%
S.Marucci pass INTERCEPTED at SHS 33. Intercepted by C.Weaver at SHS 33. C.Weaver ran out of bounds.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 14PUNT7 plays · 16 yds · 1:1392% → 92%
Q2 2:41
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+6
92.3%
H.Watson pass complete. Catch made by S.Evans for 6 yards. Tackled by D.Early at SHS 46.Similar
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
92.5%
H.Watson steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for I.Adeyi.Similar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+3
92.4%
H.Watson pass complete. Catch made by Z.Hrbacek for 3 yards. Tackled by J.Charles at SHS 49.Similar
Q2 1:55
4TH & 7
OWN 49
+34
92.0%
J.Cardell punts 34 yards to NMS 17, Center-Z.Stricker. Fair catch by J.Smith.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 15END OF HALF8 plays · 3 yds · 1:238% → 8%
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
92.0%
S.Marucci pass complete. Catch made by K.David for yards. Tackled by D.Fisher at NMS 22. PENALTY on NMS-A.Vaipulu, Ineligible Downfield Pass, 5 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 7
OWN 20
0
92.6%
S.Marucci steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for K.David.Similar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
92.4%
S.Marucci pass complete. Catch made by K.David for yards. Pushed out of bounds by J.Jimmerson at NMS 42. PENALTY on NMS-T.Pride, Ineligible Downfield Pass, 5 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 15
OWN 22
+3
92.6%
S.Marucci pass complete. Catch made by T.Pride for 3 yards. Tackled by D.Fisher at NMS 25.Similar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 12
OWN 25
-5
92.5%
S.Marucci steps back to pass. Sacked at NMS 20 for -5 yards (B.Hayes).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 16PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:268% → 7%
Q3 13:59
3RD & 3
OWN 34
-2
92.4%
S.Marucci pass complete. Catch made by J.Lydiatt for -2 yards. Tackled by J.Jimmerson at NMS 32.Similar
Q3 13:27
4TH & 5
OWN 32
+52
92.9%
G.Eberle punts 52 yards to SHS 16, Center-C.Eberle. I.Adeyi returned punt from the SHS 16. Tackled by L.Kelley at SHS 35.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 17PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0694% → 95%
NMSUDrive 18PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:227% → 7%
SHSUDrive 19PUNT7 plays · 9 yds · 3:4095% → 95%
Q3 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-10
95.8%
H.Watson steps back to pass. Sacked at SHS 49 for -10 yards (N.Arinze; B.Peleti).Similar
Q3 7:19
3RD & 19
OPP 0
+3
95.9%
H.Watson pass complete. Catch made by J.Gentry for yards. J.Gentry FUMBLES, forced by S.Aupiu. Fumble RECOVERED by NMS-K.Glinton at SHS 47. TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble and the play was overturned. H.Watson pass complete. Catch made by J.Gentry for 3 yards. Tackled by M.Ta'ase at NMS 47.Similar
Q3 6:55
4TH & 16
OPP 47
+47
95.4%
J.Cardell punts 47 yards to NMS End Zone, Center-C.Whitington. Touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 20PUNT6 plays · 16 yds · 1:315% → 5%
Q3 6:15
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+8
94.5%
S.Marucci pass complete. Catch made by T.Pride for 8 yards. Tackled by E.Allen at NMS 33.Similar
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
94.8%
S.Marucci steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for T.Pride.Similar
Q3 5:52
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+3
94.9%
S.Marucci pass complete. Catch made by K.David for 3 yards. Tackled by K.Gaither at NMS 36.Similar
Q3 5:23
3RD & 7
OWN 36
0
94.9%
S.Marucci steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for P.Johnson.Similar
Q3 5:18
4TH & 7
OWN 36
+53
95.2%
G.Eberle punts 53 yards to SHS 11, Center-C.Eberle. Downed by NMS.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 21TD14 plays · 89 yds · 6:3096% → 100%
NMSUDrive 22TD13 plays · 74 yds · 4:411% → 4%
Q4 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
99.3%
S.Marucci pass complete. Catch made by T.Pride for 9 yards. T.Pride ran out of bounds.Similar
Q4 13:12
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+7
99.2%
M.Washington rushed for 7 yards. Tackled by J.Jimmerson at NMS 42.Similar
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
99.3%
S.Marucci steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for L.Neville.Similar
Q4 12:31
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+7
99.3%
M.Washington rushed for 7 yards. Tackled by B.Hayes; C.Weaver at NMS 49.Similar
Q4 11:31
4TH & 4
OWN 48
+8
99.3%
S.Marucci pass complete. Catch made by J.Smith for 8 yards. Tackled by C.Weaver at SHS 44.Similar
Q4 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
99.5%
S.Marucci steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for J.Smith. PENALTY on SHS-E.Allen, Defensive Pass Interference, 15 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q4 8:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
96.2%
S.Marucci pass complete. Catch made by J.Lydiatt for 3 yards. TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 23FG16 plays · 45 yds · 6:2497% → 99%
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:41
S.Marucci pass complete. Catch made by J.Lydiatt for 3 yards. TOUCHDOWN.
-3.3
TD · Q2 6:34
H.Watson rushed for 8 yards. TOUCHDOWN.
+3.2
TD · Q1 0:39
J.Ducker rushed for 1 yards. TOUCHDOWN.
+2