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NMSU

New Mexico State 0 at Fresno State 48

FRES
2024 · Week 3 · Sep 14, 2024 · Valley Children's Stadium
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Win probability · FRES
modelFRES aheadNMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playFRES scoreNMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:53 · Parker Awad pass intercepted, touchback. Justin Houston return for no gain
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+44.0+22.00−22.0−44.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 146Pregame prior+7.1Home team on offense+35.4Score differential+29.7Blowout margin+18.8Garbage-time factor+8.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 12:04: Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 69 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK) — FRES win probability +0.1 pts (now 93%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 9:55: Elijah Gilliam run for 4 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK) — FRES win probability +0.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 11:08: Malik Sherrod run for 7 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK) — FRES win probability +2.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 4:20: Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 13 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK) — FRES win probability +1.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 12:14: Joshua Wood run for 1 yd for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK) — FRES win probability +0.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FRES made the numbers' call on 8 of 9NMSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 12
  1. Q1 12:43NMSU 4th & 7 at NMSU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.7%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:13NMSU 4th & 2 at NMSU 33, down 7
    Close callPunted · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:47NMSU 4th & 14 at FRES 42, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.9%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    10.0%−0.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    10.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:13FRES 4th & 10 at FRES 10, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.9%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:22NMSU 4th & 12 at FRES 45, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.8%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    9.7%−0.3
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    10.0%
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:52FRES 4th & 5 at FRES 7, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.8%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.1%
    average punt
  7. Q1 1:09NMSU 4th & 25 at NMSU 48, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.6%−0.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.3%
    average punt
  8. Q1 0:54FRES 4th & 10 at FRES 30, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.9%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 14:09NMSU 4th & 3 at NMSU 26, down 14
    Close callPunted · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.3%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 12:24FRES 4th & 1 at FRES 41, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    90.1%−0.6
    average punt
  11. Q2 7:56FRES 4th & 4 at NMSU 41, up 21
    Close callPunted · 94.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    94.4%−0.6
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.5%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q2 6:35NMSU 4th & 11 at NMSU 19, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.7%−0.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.1%
    average punt
  13. Q2 3:18NMSU 4th & 11 at NMSU 23, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−1.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.0%
    average punt
  14. Q2 0:59FRES 4th & 6 at NMSU 18, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.9%
    79% to make
    Punt
    97.7%−1.2
    average punt
  15. Q3 9:44FRES 4th & 5 at NMSU 22, up 38
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.5%
    72% to make
    Punt
    99.1%−0.4
    average punt
  16. Q3 8:56NMSU 4th & 7 at NMSU 28, down 41
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  17. Q3 2:39NMSU 4th & 27 at NMSU 7, down 48
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  18. Q3 0:12FRES 4th & 13 at NMSU 42, up 48
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−<0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  19. Q4 11:28NMSU 4th & 1 at NMSU 48, down 48
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    -0.0%−0.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 6:53NMSU 4th & 5 at FRES 22, down 48
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    72% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.2
    average punt
  21. Q4 2:23FRES 4th & 2 at NMSU 40, up 48
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FRES made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 12:04FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:55FRES Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:08FRES Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:20FRES Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 12:14FRES Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:15FRES Touchdown, up 47 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NMSUDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:176% → 7%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
93.7%
Seth McGowan run for 3 yds to the NMSU 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
93.7%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+10
93.7%
Parker Awad pass complete to Jordan Smith for 10 yds to the NMSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
93.7%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+3
93.7%
Seth McGowan run for 3 yds to the NMSU 41Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 41
0
93.7%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:43
4TH & 7
OWN 41
+12
93.2%
George Eberle punt for 43 yds , Jalen Moss returns for 12 yds to the FRES 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2TD
2 plays · 72 yds · 0:3993% → 93%
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
93.2%
Malik Sherrod run for 3 yds to the FRES 31Similar
Q1 12:04
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+69
93.3%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 69 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:517% → 7%
Q1 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
93.3%
Mike Washington run for 2 yds to the NMSU 27Similar
Q1 12:04
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
93.3%
Parker Awad pass complete to Monte Watkins for 5 yds to the NMSU 32Similar
Q1 12:04
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+1
93.3%
Mike Washington run for 1 yd to the NMSU 33Similar
Q1 10:13
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
93.0%
George Eberle punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Jalen Moss at the FRES 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4TD
2 plays · 70 yds · 0:1893% → 94%
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
93.1%
Elijah Gilliam run for 10 yds to the NMSU 4 Elijah Gilliam fumbled, recovered by FRES Raylen Sharpe R. Sharpe return for 56 yds for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
93.6%
Elijah Gilliam run for 4 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 33 yds · 4:087% → 7%
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
93.4%
Seth McGowan run for 20 yds to the NMSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
93.4%
Seth McGowan run for 2 yds to the NMSU 47Similar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+15
93.3%
MCGOWAN, Seth rush to the right for a loss of 7 yards to the NMS40 (CLARK, Dean;JACKSON, Phoenix). PENALTY FST Unsportsmanlike Conduct on CLARK, Dean enforced 15 yards from the NMS47 to the FST38 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-6
93.3%
Deuce Hogan pass complete to Seth McGowan for a loss of 6 yards to the FRES 44Similar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 16
OPP 44
-10
93.4%
HOGAN, Deuce pass up the middle complete for -2 yards to WASHINGTON, Mike caught at the FST45 and advanced to the FST46 (BRACHA, Camryn), out of bounds. PENALTY NMS Holding on JACKSON, Shamarr enforced 10 yards from the FST44 to the NMS46 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 26
OWN 46
+7
93.4%
Mike Washington run for 7 yds to the FRES 47Similar
Q1 6:38
3RD & 19
OPP 47
+5
93.4%
Deuce Hogan pass complete to Latrell Neville for 5 yds to the FRES 42Similar
Q1 5:47
4TH & 14
OPP 42
0
93.3%
George Eberle punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jalen Moss at the FRES 10Similar
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-5
93.4%
KEENE, Mikey pass deep to the left incomplete intended for DONELSON, Bryson thrown to the FST27. PENALTY FST Holding on PENRIGHT, Toreon enforced half the distance from the goal, 5 yards from the FST10 to the FST5 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:2593% → 93%
Q1 5:38
1ST & 15
OWN 5
+1
93.4%
Bryson Donelson run for 1 yd to the FRES 6Similar
Q1 5:38
2ND & 14
OWN 6
+4
93.3%
Bryson Donelson run for 4 yds to the FRES 10Similar
Q1 4:31
3RD & 10
OWN 10
0
93.3%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:13
4TH & 10
OWN 10
0
93.1%
Clay Lawrence punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Jordan Smith at the FRES 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:517% → 7%
Q1 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
92.8%
Deuce Hogan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:13
2ND & 10
OPP 43
-2
92.8%
Seth McGowan run for a loss of 2 yards to the FRES 45Similar
Q1 4:13
3RD & 12
OPP 45
0
92.9%
Deuce Hogan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:22
4TH & 12
OPP 45
0
93.1%
George Eberle punt for 43 yds, downed at the FRES 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1993% → 93%
Q1 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
93.0%
Mikey Keene run for 1 yd to the FRES 3Similar
Q1 2:34
2ND & 9
OWN 3
0
93.0%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:34
3RD & 9
OWN 3
+4
92.9%
Elijah Gilliam run for 4 yds to the FRES 7Similar
Q1 1:52
4TH & 5
OWN 7
0
92.7%
Clay Lawrence punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jordan Smith at the NMSU 48Similar
Q1 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
92.5%
HOGAN, Deuce pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for DAVID, Kordell thrown to the FST31. PENALTY FST Pass Interference on HAMILTON, Al'zillion enforced 15 yards to the FST37 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:438% → 7%
Q1 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
92.4%
Deuce Hogan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:41
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-15
92.4%
New Mexico State Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the NMSU 48Similar
Q1 1:09
2ND & 25
OWN 48
0
92.7%
Deuce Hogan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:09
3RD & 25
OWN 48
0
92.7%
Deuce Hogan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:09
4TH & 25
OWN 48
0
92.8%
George Eberle punt for 41 yds, downed at the FRES 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:1593% → 93%
Q1 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
93.0%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 4 yds to the FRES 15Similar
Q1 1:09
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+15
93.0%
New Mexico State Penalty, Personal Foul (Tayden Barnes) to the FRES 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
93.1%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for no gain to the FRES 30Similar
Q1 1:09
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
93.0%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:09
3RD & 10
OWN 30
0
92.9%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:54
4TH & 10
OWN 30
0
92.8%
Clay Lawrence punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jordan Smith at the NMSU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:517% → 7%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
92.6%
Seth McGowan run for 1 yd to the NMSU 20Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+6
92.7%
Deuce Hogan pass complete to Latrell Neville for 6 yds to the NMSU 26Similar
Q2 14:32
3RD & 3
OWN 26
0
92.4%
Deuce Hogan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:09
4TH & 3
OWN 26
0
92.6%
George Eberle punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jalen Moss at the FRES 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 12TD
6 plays · 68 yds · 2:5493% → 96%
Q2 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
93.0%
Malik Sherrod run for 6 yds to the FRES 38Similar
Q2 14:02
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+3
93.2%
Elijah Gilliam run for 3 yds to the FRES 41Similar
Q2 14:02
3RD & 1
OWN 41
0
93.0%
Malik Sherrod run for no gain to the FRES 41Similar
Q2 12:24
4TH & 1
OWN 41
+4
92.8%
Elijah Gilliam run for 4 yds to the FRES 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+48
93.2%
Malik Sherrod run for 48 yds to the NMSU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
96.0%
Malik Sherrod run for 7 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 13INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:064% → 4%
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
95.7%
Mike Washington run for 1 yd to the NMSU 26 Mike Washington fumbled, recovered by NMSU return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q2 11:08
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
95.7%
Seth McGowan run for 2 yds to the NMSU 28Similar
Q2 11:02
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+15
95.8%
Fresno State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Camryn Bracha) to the NMSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 3:0696% → 96%
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
96.2%
Joshua Wood run for 1 yd to the NMSU 46Similar
Q2 11:02
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+5
96.2%
Malik Sherrod run for 5 yds to the NMSU 41Similar
Q2 11:02
3RD & 4
OPP 41
0
96.1%
Malik Sherrod run for no gain to the NMSU 41Similar
Q2 7:56
4TH & 4
OPP 41
0
96.4%
Clay Lawrence punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 2:574% → 4%
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
95.8%
Deuce Hogan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:32
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
95.9%
Deuce Hogan pass complete to TJ Pride for 3 yds to the NMSU 23Similar
Q2 9:32
3RD & 7
OWN 23
-4
95.9%
Deuce Hogan sacked by Korey Foreman for a loss of 4 yards to the NMSU 19Similar
Q2 6:35
4TH & 11
OWN 19
0
96.0%
George Eberle punt for 54 yds , Jalen Moss returns for no gain to the FRES 19 Fresno State Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the FRES 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 16TD
7 plays · 81 yds · 2:1597% → 99%
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+22
96.7%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 22 yds to the FRES 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+32
97.2%
Malik Sherrod run for 32 yds to the NMSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
97.2%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:31
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+12
97.2%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 12 yds to the NMSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
97.1%
Malik Sherrod run for 2 yds to the NMSU 13Similar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+13
98.6%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 13 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:571% → 1%
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
98.7%
Seth McGowan run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMSU 23Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 11
OWN 23
0
98.7%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:15
3RD & 11
OWN 23
0
98.7%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:18
4TH & 11
OWN 23
0
98.7%
George Eberle punt for 48 yds, downed at the FRES 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 18FG
10 plays · 53 yds · 2:1999% → 99%
Q2 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+20
98.6%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 20 yds to the FRES 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
98.7%
New Mexico State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Tayden Barnes) to the NMSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
98.7%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jake Boust for 9 yds to the NMSU 27Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 1
OPP 27
0
98.7%
Malik Sherrod run for no gain to the NMSU 27Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+5
98.7%
Elijah Gilliam run for 5 yds to the NMSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
98.7%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+4
98.7%
Malik Sherrod run for 4 yds to the NMSU 18Similar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 6
OPP 18
0
99.0%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:59
4TH & 6
OPP 18
+36
99.0%
Dylan Lynch 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 19END OF HALF
4 plays · 11 yds · 0:111% → 1%
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+17
99.1%
Seth McGowan run for 17 yds to the NMSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.1%
New Mexico State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NMSU 20Similar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-1
99.1%
Deuce Hogan sacked by Jacob Holmes for a loss of 1 yard to the NMSU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 20TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:4699% → 100%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.2%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+22
99.2%
Raylen Sharpe run for 22 yds to the FRES 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+49
99.3%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 49 yds to the NMSU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
99.3%
Malik Sherrod run for 1 yd to the NMSU 3Similar
Q3 13:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
99.3%
Malik Sherrod run for 2 yds to the NMSU 1Similar
Q3 12:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.6%
Joshua Wood run for 1 yd for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 21INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:251% → 0%
Q3 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
99.5%
Seth McGowan run for no gain to the NMSU 24Similar
Q3 11:42
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-18
99.6%
Deuce Hogan pass intercepted Cam Lockridge return for 18 yds to the NMSU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 22FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:25100% → 100%
Q3 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
99.6%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jordan Brown for 2 yds to the NMSU 25Similar
Q3 11:09
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+3
99.6%
Malik Sherrod run for 3 yds to the NMSU 22Similar
Q3 10:02
3RD & 5
OPP 22
0
99.6%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:44
4TH & 5
OPP 22
+40
99.6%
Dylan Lynch 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:480% → 0%
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.7%
Parker Awad run for 3 yds to the NMSU 28Similar
Q3 9:21
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
99.7%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:02
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
99.7%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:56
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+20
99.7%
George Eberle punt for 37 yds , Jalen Moss returns for 20 yds to the NMSU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 24TD
8 plays · 45 yds · 3:29100% → 100%
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
99.6%
Bryson Donelson run for 10 yds to the NMSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
99.7%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jake Boust for 6 yds to the NMSU 29Similar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+15
99.7%
Joshua Wood pass complete to Johnathan Arceneaux for 15 yds to the NMSU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-4
99.7%
Raylen Sharpe run for a loss of 4 yards to the NMSU 18Similar
Q3 6:22
3RD & 14
OPP 18
+15
99.7%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Elijah Gilliam for 15 yds to the NMSU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
99.7%
Elijah Gilliam run for 1 yd to the NMSU 2Similar
Q3 6:04
2ND & 14
OPP 18
0
99.7%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.8%
Joshua Wood run for 2 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · -17 yds · 2:270% → 0%
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-10
99.8%
(05:06) QB Keeper AWAD, Parker rush to the left for a gain of 22 yards to the NMS46 (THOMAS, Tim). PENALTY NMS Holding on JACKSON, Shamarr enforced 10 yards from the NMS24 to the NMS14 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 4:56
1ST & 20
OWN 14
+2
99.8%
Mike Washington run for 2 yds to the NMSU 16Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 18
OWN 16
+3
99.8%
Parker Awad pass complete to Hunter Talley for 3 yds to the NMSU 19Similar
Q3 3:20
3RD & 15
OWN 19
-12
99.8%
Mike Washington run for a loss of 12 yards to the NMSU 7 Mike Washington fumbled, recovered by NMSU AJ Vaipulu A. Vaipulu return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q3 2:39
4TH & 27
OWN 7
0
99.9%
George Eberle punt for 46 yds, downed at the FRES 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 26PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 2:27100% → 100%
Q3 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
99.8%
Bryson Donelson run for 6 yds to the NMSU 47Similar
Q3 2:12
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+8
99.8%
Jayden Mandal pass complete to Nathan Acevedo for 8 yds to the NMSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
99.8%
Johnathan Arceneaux run for 4 yds to the NMSU 35Similar
Q3 1:13
2ND & 6
OPP 35
-7
99.8%
Jayden Mandal sacked by Noah Arinze for a loss of 7 yards to the NMSU 42Similar
Q3 0:38
3RD & 13
OPP 42
0
99.8%
Jayden Mandal pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:12
4TH & 13
OPP 42
0
99.8%
Clay Lawrence punt for 25 yds, fair catch by Jordan Smith at the NMSU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 27INT
15 plays · 61 yds · 8:070% → 0%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
99.9%
Parker Awad run for 5 yds to the NMSU 22Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+5
99.9%
Parker Awad run for 5 yds to the NMSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
99.9%
Parker Awad pass complete to Hunter Talley for 12 yds to the NMSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
99.9%
AWAD, Parker pass to the right complete for 5 yards to NEVILLE, Latrell caught at the NMS45 and advanced to the NMS44, End of Play. PENALTY FST Offsides on SATELE, Jairus enforced 5 yards from the NMS39 to the NMS44 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 5
OWN 44
+4
99.9%
Parker Awad run for 4 yds to the NMSU 48Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 48
0
99.9%
Parker Awad run for no gain to the NMSU 48Similar
Q4 12:15
3RD & 1
OWN 48
0
99.9%
Mike Washington run for no gain to the NMSU 48Similar
Q4 11:28
4TH & 1
OWN 48
+2
99.9%
Mike Washington run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:28
1ST & 10
50
0
99.9%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:23
2ND & 10
50
+2
99.9%
Seth McGowan run for 2 yds to the FRES 48Similar
Q4 9:55
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+21
99.9%
Parker Awad pass complete to Jordan Smith for 21 yds to the FRES 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-3
99.9%
Parker Awad pass complete to PJ Johnson III for a loss of 3 yards to the FRES 30Similar
Q4 8:43
2ND & 13
OPP 30
0
99.9%
Parker Awad sacked by Auckland Asiata and Sione Noa for 0 yards to the FRES 30Similar
Q4 7:57
3RD & 13
OPP 30
+8
99.9%
Parker Awad run for 8 yds to the FRES 22Similar
Q4 6:53
4TH & 5
OPP 22
0
99.9%
Parker Awad pass intercepted, touchback. Justin Houston return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 28DOWNS
11 plays · 40 yds · 4:30100% → 100%
Q4 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
99.9%
Bryson Donelson run for 6 yds to the FRES 26Similar
Q4 6:22
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+5
99.9%
Bryson Donelson run for 5 yds to the FRES 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
99.9%
Johnathan Arceneaux run for 3 yds to the FRES 34Similar
Q4 4:45
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+13
99.9%
Bryson Donelson run for 13 yds to the NMSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:37
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+5
100.0%
Bryson Donelson run for 5 yds to the FRES 39Similar
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
100.0%
Bryson Donelson run for no gain to the NMSU 48Similar
Q4 3:40
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+7
100.0%
Bryson Donelson run for 7 yds to the NMSU 41Similar
Q4 2:57
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+1
100.0%
Bryson Donelson run for 1 yd to the NMSU 40Similar
Q4 2:23
4TH & 2
OPP 40
0
100.0%
Bryson Donelson run for no gain to the NMSU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 29END OF GAME
4 plays · 12 yds · 1:560% → 0%
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
100.0%
Larenzo McMillan run for 4 yds to the NMSU 44Similar
Q4 1:29
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+5
100.0%
Santino Marucci pass complete to Kordell David for 5 yds to the NMSU 49Similar
Q4 0:49
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+3
100.0%
Larenzo McMillan run for 3 yds to the FRES 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
100.0%
Santino Marucci sacked by Mordecai Hines for 0 yards to the FRES 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 11:08
Malik Sherrod run for 7 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)
+2.8
TD · Q2 4:20
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 13 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)
+1.4
TD · Q1 9:55
Elijah Gilliam run for 4 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)
+0.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com