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SEMO

Southeast Missouri State 16 at New Mexico State 23

NMSU
2024 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2024 · Aggie Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NMSU
modelNMSU aheadSEMO aheadconfidence bandkey playNMSU scoreSEMO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4Q3Q4TDTDFGFGFGFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:13 · Logan Leftrick punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Darrell Smith at the NMSU 18
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Q3Q4Play 13Pregame prior+22.4Home team on offense−0.3Score differential−0.2Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:03: Paxton DeLaurent pass complete to Dorian Anderson for 51 yds for a TD (DC Pippin KICK) — SEMO win probability +5.9 pts (now 35%) (top driver: SEMO has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:04: Seth McGowan run for 14 yds for a TD (Abraham Montano KICK) — NMSU win probability +7.8 pts (now 71%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:40: Abraham Montano 24 yd FG GOOD — NMSU win probability +5.9 pts (now 67%) (top driver: NMSU down 3 timeouts).
  4. FG · Q4 14:56: DC Pippin 48 yd FG GOOD — SEMO win probability +8.6 pts (now 65%) (top driver: SEMO has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:57: Seth McGowan 3 Yd Run (Parker Awad Run for Two-Point Conversion) — NMSU win probability +46.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NMSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8SEMO made the numbers' call on 5 of 10
  1. Q1 13:45NMSU 4th & 14 at NMSU 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.2%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:45SEMO 4th & 1 at SEMO 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    25.5%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:13SEMO 4th & 6 at SEMO 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 10:22NMSU 4th & 8 at NMSU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.3%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 9:08SEMO 4th & 1 at SEMO 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 26.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.6%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q1 4:48NMSU 4th & 14 at NMSU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.7%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:08SEMO 4th & 4 at NMSU 19, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.9%−0.2
    77% to make
    Punt
    29.6%−4.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:40NMSU 4th & 5 at SEMO 6, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.3%−0.9
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.2%
    91% to make
    Punt
    56.3%−6.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:26SEMO 4th & 10 at SEMO 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.6%−1.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:22SEMO 4th & 6 at NMSU 35, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.3%−0.8
    45% to make
    Punt
    37.1%−2.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:22SEMO 4th & 2 at SEMO 23, up 3
    Close callWent for it · 42.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.6%−0.5
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    43.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:29SEMO 4th & 10 at NMSU 28, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.9%−1.6
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.5%
    60% to make
    Punt
    38.0%−10.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:32NMSU 4th & 22 at NMSU 16, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.6%−6.9
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:56SEMO 4th & 3 at NMSU 30, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 51.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.2%−2.3
    56% to make
    Punt
    46.9%−5.5
    average punt
  15. Q3 8:22NMSU 4th & 7 at NMSU 36, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.2%−1.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:54NMSU 4th & 7 at SEMO 41, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 43.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    40.2%−2.4
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    40.8%−1.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:07NMSU 4th & 16 at SEMO 33, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.3%−4.2
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.5%
    49% to make
    Punt
    30.6%−4.8
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:09SEMO 4th & 1 at SEMO 34, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    57.4%−5.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NMSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2SEMO made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 2:03SEMO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:04NMSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 1:57NMSU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    82.6%−0.7
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    83.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NMSUDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:1574% → 74%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
73.8%
Mike Washington run for 1 yd to the NMSU 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-5
73.8%
Parker Awad pass complete to Kordell David for a loss of 5 yards to the NMSU 21Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
73.8%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:45
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+5
73.5%
George Eberle punt for 56 yds , Khalani Riddick returns for 5 yds to the SEMO 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SEMODrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 2:3226% → 27%
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
73.6%
Paxton DeLaurent pass complete to Cam Pedro for a loss of 1 yard to the SEMO 27Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 11
OWN 27
-2
73.6%
Jr. Brandon Epton run for a loss of 2 yards to the SEMO 25Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 13
OWN 25
+12
73.6%
Paxton DeLaurent pass complete to Kyron Downing for 12 yds to the SEMO 37Similar
Q1 13:45
4TH & 1
OWN 37
+1
73.6%
Jr. Brandon Epton run for 1 yd to the SEMO 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
73.1%
Paxton DeLaurent pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:58
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+4
73.1%
Paxton DeLaurent pass complete to Kyron Downing for 4 yds to the SEMO 42Similar
Q1 11:58
3RD & 6
OWN 42
0
73.0%
Paxton DeLaurent pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:13
4TH & 6
OWN 42
0
73.0%
Logan Leftrick punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Darrell Smith at the NMSU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5173% → 73%
Q1 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
73.0%
Mike Washington pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:13
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+2
73.0%
Mike Washington run for 2 yds to the NMSU 20Similar
Q1 11:13
3RD & 8
OWN 20
0
72.9%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:22
4TH & 8
OWN 20
+2
72.5%
George Eberle punt for 45 yds , Khalani Riddick returns for 2 yds to the SEMO 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SEMODrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1427% → 28%
Q1 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
72.6%
Payton Brown run for 4 yds to the SEMO 41Similar
Q1 10:22
2ND & 6
OWN 41
0
72.5%
Paxton DeLaurent pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:22
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+5
72.6%
Paxton DeLaurent pass complete to Jr. Brandon Epton for 5 yds to the SEMO 46Similar
Q1 9:08
4TH & 1
OWN 46
0
72.3%
Logan Leftrick punt for 45 yds , Jordan Smith returns for no gain to the NMSU 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 5PUNT
11 plays · 42 yds · 4:2073% → 71%
Q1 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+7
72.5%
TJ Pride run for 7 yds to the NMSU 12Similar
Q1 9:08
2ND & 3
OWN 12
+5
72.6%
AWAD, Parker scrambles to the left for a gain of 1 yard to the NMS13 (CASEY, McCoy). PENALTY SEM Offsides on WILLIAMS, JaQori enforced 5 yards from the NMS12 to the NMS17 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
72.6%
Monte Watkins run for 2 yds to the NMSU 19Similar
Q1 9:08
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+20
72.6%
Seth McGowan run for 20 yds to the NMSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
72.9%
Seth McGowan run for 4 yds to the NMSU 43Similar
Q1 9:08
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+8
73.1%
TJ Pride run for 8 yds to the SEMO 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-5
73.2%
Parker Awad sacked by Jeremy Walton for a loss of 5 yards to the NMSU 46Similar
Q1 9:08
2ND & 15
OWN 46
+1
72.8%
Monte Watkins run for 1 yd to the NMSU 47Similar
Q1 9:08
3RD & 14
OWN 47
0
72.6%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:48
4TH & 14
OWN 47
0
71.0%
George Eberle punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SEMODrive 6TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 2:4529% → 35%
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
71.1%
Paxton DeLaurent pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:48
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+6
71.2%
Jr. Brandon Epton run for 6 yds to the SEMO 26Similar
Q1 4:48
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+15
71.2%
DELAURENT, Paxton pass short to the left incomplete intended for PEDRO, Cam broken up by CHARLES, Josiah at the SEM30. PENALTY NMS Roughing the Passer on PELETI, Buddha enforced 15 yards from the SEM26 to the SEM41 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 4:48
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+2
70.1%
Jr. Brandon Epton run for 2 yds to the NMSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
70.4%
Paxton DeLaurent pass complete to Donnie Cheers for 8 yds to the SEMO 49Similar
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-15
70.1%
Southeast Missouri State Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the SEMO 37Similar
Q1 4:48
2ND & 24
OWN 37
+12
71.1%
Paxton DeLaurent pass complete to Dorian Anderson for 12 yds to the SEMO 49Similar
Q1 2:03
3RD & 12
OWN 49
+51
65.2%
Paxton DeLaurent pass complete to Dorian Anderson for 51 yds for a TD (DC Pippin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 7TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:5966% → 71%
Q1 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
65.9%
Mike Washington run for 5 yds to the NMSU 30Similar
Q1 2:03
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
66.2%
Mike Washington run for 4 yds to the NMSU 34Similar
Q1 2:03
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
66.3%
Parker Awad run for 2 yds to the NMSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
66.3%
Mike Washington run for 2 yds to the NMSU 38Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+1
65.2%
Parker Awad run for 1 yd to the NMSU 39Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+16
64.8%
Parker Awad pass complete to PJ Johnson III for 16 yds to the SEMO 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
66.3%
Seth McGowan run for 1 yd to the SEMO 44Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+6
66.2%
Mike Washington run for 6 yds to the SEMO 38Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+3
66.2%
Mike Washington run for 3 yds to the SEMO 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+13
66.9%
TJ Pride run for 13 yds to the SEMO 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
66.9%
Parker Awad pass complete to TJ Pride for 8 yds to the SEMO 14Similar
Q2 11:11
2ND & 2
OPP 14
0
63.5%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:04
3RD & 2
OPP 14
+14
71.4%
Seth McGowan run for 14 yds for a TD (Abraham Montano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SEMODrive 8FG
10 plays · 56 yds · 3:5632% → 38%
Q2 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
68.3%
Paxton DeLaurent pass complete to Kyron Downing for 20 yds to the SEMO 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+16
66.9%
Paxton DeLaurent pass complete to Dorian Anderson for 16 yds to the NMSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
66.3%
Southeast Missouri State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NMSU 44Similar
Q2 11:04
1ST & 15
OPP 44
0
66.9%
Paxton DeLaurent pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:04
2ND & 15
OPP 44
+5
67.2%
Paxton DeLaurent pass complete to Cam Pedro for 5 yds to the NMSU 39Similar
Q2 11:04
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+14
67.0%
Paxton DeLaurent pass complete to Cam Pedro for 14 yds to the NMSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
65.5%
Payton Brown run for 5 yds to the NMSU 20Similar
Q2 11:04
2ND & 5
OPP 20
0
65.5%
Paxton DeLaurent pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:04
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+1
66.2%
Paxton DeLaurent pass complete to Cam Pedro for 1 yd to the NMSU 19Similar
Q2 7:08
4TH & 4
OPP 19
+37
62.1%
DC Pippin 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 9FG
19 plays · 72 yds · 6:2160% → 67%
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
60.4%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:01
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+8
60.3%
Monte Watkins run for 8 yds to the NMSU 30Similar
Q2 7:01
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+6
60.0%
PJ Johnson III run for 6 yds to the NMSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
61.3%
Mike Washington run for 8 yds to the NMSU 44Similar
Q2 7:01
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+1
63.0%
Mike Washington run for 1 yd to the NMSU 45Similar
Q2 7:01
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+1
62.1%
Mike Washington run for 1 yd to the NMSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
62.7%
AWAD, Parker pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for DAVID, Kordell thrown to the SEM20. PENALTY SEM Pass Interference on DAIGRE, Chris enforced 15 yards to the SEM39 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
63.4%
Parker Awad run for 4 yds to the SEMO 35Similar
Q2 7:01
2ND & 6
OPP 35
0
64.2%
Mike Washington run for no gain to the SEMO 35Similar
Q2 7:01
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+8
63.1%
Parker Awad run for 8 yds to the SEMO 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
62.6%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+7
62.5%
Monte Watkins run for 7 yds to the SEMO 20Similar
Q2 1:54
3RD & 3
OPP 20
+9
60.9%
Seth McGowan run for 9 yds to the SEMO 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
62.6%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
62.5%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:22
3RD & 10
OPP 11
+5
60.8%
Parker Awad run for 5 yds to the SEMO 6Similar
Q2 0:40
4TH & 5
OPP 6
+24
66.7%
Abraham Montano 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SEMODrive 10END OF HALF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
62.5%
Jr. Brandon Epton run for no gain to the SEMO 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SEMODrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:3436% → 36%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
63.6%
Jr. Brandon Epton run for 5 yds to the SEMO 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-6
62.9%
Paxton DeLaurent pass complete to Jr. Brandon Epton for a loss of 6 yards to the SEMO 24Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+15
65.0%
Paxton DeLaurent pass complete to Cam Pedro for 15 yds to the SEMO 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
62.0%
Jr. Brandon Epton run for no gain to the SEMO 39Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
62.4%
Paxton DeLaurent pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 39
0
63.6%
Paxton DeLaurent pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:26
4TH & 10
OWN 39
0
64.4%
punt blocked by Dylan Early blocked by Dylan EarlySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 12INT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1869% → 68%
Q3 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
68.8%
Mike Washington run for 6 yds to the SEMO 45Similar
Q3 12:26
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+3
69.4%
Mike Washington run for 3 yds to the SEMO 42Similar
Q3 12:26
3RD & 1
OPP 42
-5
68.8%
New Mexico State Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the SEMO 47Similar
Q3 11:08
3RD & 6
OPP 47
0
68.1%
Parker Awad pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SEMODrive 13FG
7 plays · 25 yds · 1:4640% → 47%
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
59.8%
Paxton DeLaurent pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:08
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
60.6%
Paxton DeLaurent pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:08
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+21
61.7%
Paxton DeLaurent pass complete to Payton Brown for 21 yds to the NMSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
58.4%
Payton Brown run for 1 yd to the NMSU 38Similar
Q3 11:08
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+3
58.6%
Paxton DeLaurent pass complete to Payton Brown for 3 yds to the NMSU 35Similar
Q3 11:08
3RD & 6
OPP 35
0
58.8%
Paxton DeLaurent pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:22
4TH & 6
OPP 35
+53
53.4%
DC Pippin 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SEMODrive 14MISSED FG
10 plays · 57 yds · 4:5346% → 51%
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
54.0%
Paxton DeLaurent pass complete to Danny Joiner for 5 yds to the SEMO 20Similar
Q3 8:22
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+3
53.7%
Jr. Brandon Epton run for 3 yds to the SEMO 23Similar
Q3 8:22
3RD & 2
OWN 23
0
53.9%
Paxton DeLaurent pass complete to Cam Pedro for no gain to the SEMO 23Similar
Q3 8:22
4TH & 2
OWN 23
+27
56.2%
Steven Lewis run for 27 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
50
-1
50.0%
Jr. Brandon Epton run for a loss of 1 yard to the SEMO 49Similar
Q3 8:22
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+23
51.0%
Paxton DeLaurent pass complete to Cam Pedro for 23 yds to the NMSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
48.0%
Jr. Brandon Epton run for no gain to the NMSU 28Similar
Q3 8:22
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
48.7%
Paxton DeLaurent pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:22
3RD & 10
OPP 28
0
50.4%
Paxton DeLaurent pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:29
4TH & 10
OPP 28
+46
48.9%
DC Pippin 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -12 yds · 0:5753% → 48%
Q3 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
52.9%
Mike Washington run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMSU 27Similar
Q3 3:29
2ND & 11
OWN 27
0
51.9%
Deuce Hogan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:29
3RD & 11
OWN 27
-11
50.2%
New Mexico State Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Deuce Hogan) to the NMSU 16Similar
Q3 2:32
4TH & 22
OWN 16
+15
47.9%
George Eberle punt for 48 yds , Khalani Riddick returns for 15 yds to the NMSU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SEMODrive 16FG
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:3655% → 65%
Q3 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
44.8%
Paxton DeLaurent pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:32
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+9
45.1%
Paxton DeLaurent pass complete to Cam Pedro for 9 yds to the NMSU 40Similar
Q3 2:32
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+3
44.5%
Payton Brown run for 3 yds to the NMSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-7
44.8%
Paxton DeLaurent run for a loss of 7 yards to the NMSU 44 Paxton DeLaurent fumbled, recovered by SEMO Paxton DeLaurent P. DeLaurent return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q3 2:32
2ND & 17
OPP 44
+11
46.5%
Paxton DeLaurent pass complete to Donnie Cheers for 11 yds to the NMSU 33Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 33
+3
43.5%
Paxton DeLaurent pass complete to Danny Joiner for 3 yds to the NMSU 30Similar
Q4 14:56
4TH & 3
OPP 30
+48
34.9%
DC Pippin 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 8:0747% → 41%
Q3 8:22
4TH & 7
OWN 36
0
46.9%
George Eberle punt for 57 yds , Khalani Riddick returns for no gain to the SEMO 15Similar
Q3 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
42.3%
Seth McGowan run for 3 yds to the NMSU 36Similar
Q3 0:15
2ND & 7
OWN 36
0
43.9%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:15
3RD & 7
OWN 36
0
41.3%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 34 yds · 3:0241% → 40%
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
41.3%
Deuce Hogan pass complete to PJ Johnson III for 19 yds to the NMSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
45.1%
Seth McGowan run for 8 yds to the SEMO 48Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+4
47.0%
Deuce Hogan pass complete to TJ Pride for 4 yds to the SEMO 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
47.0%
Deuce Hogan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-10
46.3%
WASHINGTON, Mike rush to the right for a loss of 2 yards to the SEM46 lateral to WATKINS, Monte for -8 yards to the SEM40 (DAIGRE, Chris). PENALTY NMS Holding on TALLEY, Hunter enforced 10 yards from the SEM44 to the NMS46 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 20
OWN 46
0
42.3%
Deuce Hogan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 20
OWN 46
+13
40.4%
Deuce Hogan run for 13 yds to the SEMO 41Similar
Q4 11:54
4TH & 7
OPP 41
0
40.2%
George Eberle punt for 40 yds, downed at the SEMO 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 19FG
11 plays · 36 yds · 7:3146% → 46%
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+11
46.0%
Monte Watkins run for 11 yds to the NMSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
49.1%
Seth McGowan run for 6 yds to the NMSU 48Similar
Q4 13:38
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+2
50.1%
Seth McGowan run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:38
3RD & 2
50
+3
49.4%
Mike Washington run for 3 yds to the SEMO 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
50.9%
Mike Washington run for 5 yds to the SEMO 42Similar
Q4 13:38
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+15
51.0%
AWAD, Parker pass deep to the left incomplete intended for DAVID, Kordell thrown to the SEM7. PENALTY SEM Pass Interference on JOHNSON, Justus enforced 15 yards to the SEM27 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-5
53.0%
Jordan Smith run for a loss of 5 yards to the SEMO 32Similar
Q4 13:38
2ND & 15
OPP 32
-5
50.1%
New Mexico State Penalty, False Start (Jerry Lydiatt) to the SEMO 37Similar
Q4 13:38
2ND & 20
OPP 37
+5
48.3%
Parker Awad pass complete to Kordell David for 5 yds to the SEMO 32Similar
Q4 13:38
3RD & 15
OPP 32
-1
47.3%
Parker Awad sacked by Mali Walton and McCoy Casey for a loss of 1 yard to the SEMO 33Similar
Q4 6:07
4TH & 16
OPP 33
+51
46.4%
Abraham Montano 51 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SEMODrive 20SF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q4 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
51.3%
Paxton DeLaurent pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SEMODrive 21DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5859% → 61%
Q4 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
41.4%
Payton Brown run for 5 yds to the SEMO 30Similar
Q4 6:07
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
39.6%
Jr. Brandon Epton run for 4 yds to the SEMO 34Similar
Q4 4:17
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
37.0%
Paxton DeLaurent run for no gain to the SEMO 34 Paxton DeLaurent fumbled, recovered by SEMO Paxton DeLaurent P. DeLaurent return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q4 4:09
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
39.3%
Payton Brown run for no gain to the SEMO 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 22TD
7 plays · 34 yds · 2:1259% → 97%
Q4 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
58.6%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:09
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
58.3%
Mike Washington run for no gain to the SEMO 34Similar
Q4 4:09
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+13
54.8%
Parker Awad pass complete to Kordell David for 13 yds to the SEMO 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
58.5%
Mike Washington run for 1 yd to the SEMO 20Similar
Q4 1:59
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+17
59.2%
Seth McGowan run for 17 yds to the SEMO 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
97.1%
Seth McGowan 3 Yd Run (Parker Awad Run for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SEMODrive 23INT
10 plays · 59 yds · 1:2013% → 24%
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
86.7%
Paxton DeLaurent pass complete to Dorian Anderson for 6 yds to the SEMO 31Similar
Q4 1:57
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+15
84.6%
Paxton DeLaurent pass complete to Dorian Anderson for 15 yds to the SEMO 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
83.3%
Paxton DeLaurent pass complete to Dorian Anderson for 15 yds to the NMSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
81.5%
DELAURENT, Paxton pass short up the middle complete for 1 yard to PEDRO, Cam caught at the NMS37 and advanced to the NMS38 (EARLY, Dylan). PENALTY SEM Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on CLINKENBEARD, Jack enforced 5 yards from the NMS39 to the NMS44 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 1:57
1ST & 15
OPP 44
0
83.1%
Paxton DeLaurent pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:54
2ND & 15
OPP 44
+20
84.3%
Paxton DeLaurent pass complete to Donnie Cheers for 20 yds to the NMSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
77.4%
Paxton DeLaurent pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:41
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+8
75.7%
Paxton DeLaurent pass complete to Cam Pedro for 8 yds to the NMSU 16Similar
Q4 0:37
3RD & 2
OPP 16
0
76.5%
Paxton DeLaurent pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 24END OF 4TH QUARTER
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-1
96.7%
[NH] Kneel down by AWAD, Parker at NMS17 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:57
Seth McGowan 3 Yd Run (Parker Awad Run for Two-Point Conversion)
+46.9
FG · Q4 14:56
DC Pippin 48 yd FG GOOD
-8.6
TD · Q2 11:04
Seth McGowan run for 14 yds for a TD (Abraham Montano KICK)
+7.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com