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UTEP

UTEP 42 at New Mexico State 35

NMSU
2024 · Week 14 · Nov 30, 2024 · Aggie Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NMSU
modelNMSU aheadUTEP aheadconfidence bandkey playNMSU scoreUTEP score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:33 · Parker Awad pass complete to Jordan Smith for 13 yds to the NMSU 27 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingBlowout margin
+41.5+20.80−20.8−41.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 177Home team on offense−23.9Garbage-time factor−11.4Score differential−9.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.2Blowout margin−1.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:36: Parker Awad pass complete to TJ Pride for 35 yds for a TD (Abraham Montano KICK) — NMSU win probability +18.2 pts (now 78%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:41: Jevon Jackson run for 3 yds for a TD (Buzz Flabiano KICK) — UTEP win probability +19.8 pts (now 45%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q3 5:45: Skyler Locklear pass complete to Kenny Odom for 30 yds for a TD (Buzz Flabiano KICK) — UTEP win probability +19.9 pts (now 64%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:12: Bryton Thompson 5 Yd Fumble Return (Buzz Flabiano Kick) — UTEP win probability +11.5 pts (now 93%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:22: PJ Johnson III 30 Yd pass from Parker Awad (Mike Washington Run for Two-Point Conversion) — NMSU win probability +13.4 pts (now 19%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NMSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 9UTEP made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 14:16UTEP 4th & 8 at UTEP 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.6%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:09NMSU 4th & 6 at UTEP 42, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 57.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.8%−0.3
    30% to make
    Punt
    58.0%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:41UTEP 4th & 10 at UTEP 41, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.6%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:31UTEP 4th & 1 at NMSU 38, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    37.8%−1.0
    38% to make
    Punt
    37.8%−1.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:10UTEP 4th & 1 at UTEP 46, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    32.9%−1.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:24NMSU 4th & 10 at NMSU 38, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.0%−1.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:44UTEP 4th & 14 at UTEP 37, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.0%−1.3
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:00NMSU 4th & 8 at UTEP 40, up 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 74.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.0%
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.2%−0.8
    34% to make
    Punt
    74.0%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:36NMSU 4th & 2 at UTEP 28, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 77.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.6%−1.4
    60% to make
    Punt
    69.8%−7.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:41NMSU 4th & 7 at UTEP 34, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    65.7%−0.3
    47% to make
    Punt
    64.7%−1.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:00NMSU 4th & 7 at UTEP 16, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.2%−1.0
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.2%
    81% to make
    Punt
    33.0%−11.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:53UTEP 4th & 21 at UTEP 9, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.4%−6.4
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:23NMSU 4th & 10 at NMSU 48, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.0%−1.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:58NMSU 4th & 9 at NMSU 49, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.0%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:14UTEP 4th & 2 at NMSU 41, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    95.0%−1.3
    32% to make
    Punt
    95.1%−1.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:33UTEP 4th & 1 at UTEP 47, up 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsPunted · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.4%−2.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:33NMSU 4th & 9 at NMSU 14, down 8
    Close callWent for it · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.0%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NMSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4UTEP made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 11:45UTEP Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:02NMSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:57NMSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:36NMSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 10:13UTEP Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:41UTEP Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 5:45UTEP Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 13:12UTEP Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 7:22NMSU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    11.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    10.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTEPDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4449% → 49%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
51.3%
Jevon Jackson run for 2 yds to the UTEP 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
51.3%
Skyler Locklear pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
51.3%
Skyler Locklear pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:16
4TH & 8
OWN 27
-16
51.5%
Adam Jacklin punt for 43 yds , TJ Pride returns for a loss of 16 yards to the NMSU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 2FUMBLE RETURN TD
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:3152% → 51%
Q1 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+12
51.5%
Parker Awad pass complete to Kordell David for 12 yds to the NMSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
51.5%
Seth McGowan run for 5 yds to the NMSU 32Similar
Q1 14:16
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+15
51.5%
Seth McGowan run for 15 yds to the NMSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-4
51.6%
Parker Awad sacked by KD Johnson for a loss of 4 yards to the NMSU 43Similar
Q1 14:16
2ND & 14
OWN 43
0
51.5%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:45
3RD & 14
OWN 43
+33
50.7%
Bryton Thompson 33 Yd Fumble Return (Buzz Flabiano Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 3FG
10 plays · 33 yds · 3:3651% → 51%
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
50.7%
Mike Washington run for 4 yds to the NMSU 29Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+12
50.8%
Parker Awad run for 12 yds to the NMSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
50.9%
Mike Washington run for 3 yds to the NMSU 44Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+6
51.0%
Parker Awad pass complete to PJ Johnson III for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:45
3RD & 1
50
+4
51.1%
Seth McGowan run for 4 yds to the UTEP 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
51.1%
Seth McGowan run for 4 yds to the UTEP 42Similar
Q1 8:17
2ND & 6
OPP 42
0
50.3%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:17
3RD & 6
OPP 42
0
50.2%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:09
4TH & 6
OPP 42
+59
51.4%
Abraham Montano 59 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 1:2849% → 49%
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
51.1%
Skyler Locklear pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
51.2%
Jevon Jackson run for 7 yds to the UTEP 32Similar
Q1 8:09
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+9
51.0%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Ashton Nickelberry for 9 yds to the UTEP 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
50.6%
Skyler Locklear pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:09
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
50.7%
Skyler Locklear pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:09
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
50.9%
Skyler Locklear pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:41
4TH & 10
OWN 41
0
51.2%
Adam Jacklin punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 5TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:3951% → 55%
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+54
50.5%
Parker Awad pass complete to PJ Johnson III for 54 yds to the UTEP 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
54.8%
Parker Awad pass complete to Seth McGowan for 21 yds for a TD (Carson Zilmer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 6DOWNS
8 plays · 37 yds · 2:3146% → 46%
Q1 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
53.8%
Skyler Locklear run for 3 yds to the UTEP 28Similar
Q1 6:02
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
53.7%
Jevon Jackson run for 6 yds to the UTEP 34Similar
Q1 6:02
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
53.5%
Skyler Locklear run for 4 yds to the UTEP 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
53.3%
LOCKLEAR, Skyler pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for ODOM, Kenny thrown to the NMSU35. PENALTY NMSU Pass Interference on GLINTON, Keonte enforced 15 yards to the NMSU47 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
52.8%
Skyler Locklear pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:02
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+4
52.9%
Jevon Jackson run for 4 yds to the NMSU 43Similar
Q1 6:02
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+5
52.9%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Marcus Vinson for 5 yds to the NMSU 38Similar
Q1 3:31
4TH & 1
OPP 38
0
53.8%
Skyler Locklear pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 7TD
7 plays · 62 yds · 2:3455% → 59%
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
54.9%
Mike Washington run for 8 yds to the NMSU 46Similar
Q1 3:31
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+23
55.5%
Mike Washington run for 23 yds to the UTEP 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
55.8%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:31
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+16
55.7%
Parker Awad pass complete to Seth McGowan for 16 yds to the UTEP 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
55.8%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:31
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+6
55.8%
Mike Washington run for 6 yds to the UTEP 9Similar
Q1 0:57
3RD & 4
OPP 9
+9
59.4%
Mike Washington run for 9 yds for a TD (Abraham Montano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 8DOWNS
5 plays · 21 yds · 1:4741% → 40%
Q1 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
59.5%
Skyler Locklear run for 12 yds to the UTEP 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
58.9%
Ezell Jolly run for no gain to the UTEP 37Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+4
59.7%
Ezell Jolly run for 4 yds to the UTEP 41Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+5
59.4%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Trey Goodman for 5 yds to the UTEP 46Similar
Q2 14:10
4TH & 1
OWN 46
0
60.0%
Jevon Jackson run for no gain to the UTEP 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 9TD
4 plays · 46 yds · 1:3461% → 78%
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
60.9%
Seth McGowan run for no gain to the UTEP 46Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+3
60.7%
Parker Awad pass complete to TJ Pride for 3 yds to the UTEP 43Similar
Q2 14:10
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+8
60.2%
Parker Awad pass complete to Seth McGowan for 8 yds to the UTEP 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
78.3%
Parker Awad pass complete to TJ Pride for 35 yds for a TD (Abraham Montano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 10TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:2329% → 40%
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
70.7%
Jevon Jackson run for 4 yds to the UTEP 29Similar
Q2 12:36
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+18
70.2%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Trey Goodman for 18 yds to the UTEP 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
69.6%
Skyler Locklear pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:36
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
69.8%
Skyler Locklear pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:36
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+11
70.1%
Skyler Locklear run for 11 yds to the NMSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
68.8%
LOCKLEAR, Skyler pass deep up the middle incomplete dropped by ODOM, Kenny thrown to the NMSU0. PENALTY NMSU Personal Foul on TA'ASE, Malaki enforced 15 yards from the NMSU42 to the NMSU27 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+20
68.1%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Trey Goodman for 20 yds to the NMSU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
68.1%
Jevon Jackson run for 5 yds to the NMSU 2Similar
Q2 10:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
59.8%
Jevon Jackson run for 2 yds for a TD (Buzz Flabiano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 11PUNT
13 plays · 13 yds · 5:4962% → 64%
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
61.8%
Mike Washington run for 5 yds to the NMSU 30Similar
Q2 10:13
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-10
62.1%
QB Keeper AWAD, Parker rush to the right for a gain of 22 yards to the UTEP48, End of Play. PENALTY NMSU Holding on CANEPA, Louie enforced 10 yards from the NMSU30 to the NMSU20 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 10:13
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+8
61.5%
Mike Washington run for 8 yds to the NMSU 28Similar
Q2 10:13
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-6
61.0%
Parker Awad sacked by Maurice Westmoreland for a loss of 6 yards to the NMSU 22Similar
Q2 7:50
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+15
62.0%
EBERLE, George punt 43 yards to the UTEP35, fair catch by THOMAS, Kam, clock 07:50. PENALTY UTEP Personal Foul on MOORE, Oscar enforced 15 yards from the NMSU22 to the NMSU37 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [FAKE PUNT]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
64.3%
Parker Awad run for 3 yds to the NMSU 40Similar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 7
OWN 40
-7
64.9%
Parker Awad sacked by Kyran Duhon for a loss of 7 yards to the NMSU 33Similar
Q2 7:50
3RD & 14
OWN 33
-10
62.7%
MCGOWAN, Seth rush up the middle for a gain of 17 yards, MCGOWAN, Seth fumbled at NMSU49 forced by SHELTON, Jaylon, recovered by NMSU VAIPULU, AJ at the NMSU50, returned 0 yards to the NMSU50, End of Play. PENALTY NMSU Holding on JACKSON, Shamarr enforced 10 yards from the NMSU33 to the NMSU23 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 7:50
3RD & 24
OWN 23
+15
62.6%
AWAD, Parker pass short to the left complete for 3 yards to MCGOWAN, Seth caught at the NMSU26 and advanced to the NMSU26 (CHAPMAN, Kory). PENALTY UTEP Personal Foul on CHAPMAN, Kory enforced 15 yards from the NMSU23 to the NMSU38 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
64.8%
Parker Awad run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMSU 37Similar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+1
63.9%
Seth McGowan run for 1 yd to the NMSU 38Similar
Q2 7:50
3RD & 10
OWN 38
0
63.5%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:24
4TH & 10
OWN 38
+16
64.2%
George Eberle punt for 52 yds , Kam Thomas returns for 16 yds to the UTEP 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 2:4033% → 29%
Q2 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
66.8%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Trey Goodman for 1 yd to the UTEP 27Similar
Q2 4:24
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+14
67.1%
Skyler Locklear run for 14 yds to the UTEP 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
65.8%
Jevon Jackson run for 5 yds to the UTEP 46 UTEP Penalty, Offensive Holding (Marcus Vinson) to the UTEP 36Similar
Q2 4:24
1ST & 15
OWN 36
+2
67.0%
Skyler Locklear run for 2 yds to the UTEP 38Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 13
OWN 38
-1
69.6%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Kenny Odom for a loss of 1 yard to the UTEP 37Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 14
OWN 37
0
70.4%
Skyler Locklear pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:44
4TH & 14
OWN 37
+17
71.1%
Adam Jacklin punt for 45 yds , TJ Pride returns for 17 yds to the NMSU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 13FUMBLE
6 plays · 10 yds · 0:4072% → 73%
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
71.8%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+6
71.5%
Mike Washington run for 6 yds to the NMSU 41Similar
Q2 1:44
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+9
71.9%
Parker Awad pass complete to Mike Washington for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
50
0
73.5%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 10
50
0
73.2%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:04
3RD & 10
50
-25
73.0%
Parker Awad pass intercepted Kory Chapman return for 25 yds to the NMSU 45 Kory Chapman fumbled, recovered by NMSU Parker Awad P. Awad return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 14MISSED FG
9 plays · 15 yds · 1:0674% → 73%
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
74.1%
Tim Gans run for 6 yds to the UTEP 49Similar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 4
OPP 49
0
74.2%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+7
76.9%
Tim Gans run for 7 yds to the UTEP 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
78.1%
Mike Washington run for 1 yd to the UTEP 41 Mike Washington fumbled, recovered by NMSUSimilar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 9
OPP 41
0
77.8%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:03
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+1
74.3%
Mike Washington run for 1 yd to the UTEP 40Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 8
OPP 40
+57
73.4%
Abraham Montano 57 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 15MISSED FG
9 plays · 47 yds · 3:2471% → 74%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
71.4%
Mike Washington run for 4 yds to the NMSU 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
71.5%
Mike Washington run for 1 yd to the NMSU 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+17
70.7%
Parker Awad pass complete to Jordan Smith for 17 yds to the NMSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
72.9%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+17
72.7%
Parker Awad pass complete to Kordell David for 17 yds to the UTEP 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
73.1%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+8
73.0%
Mike Washington run for 8 yds to the UTEP 28Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 28
0
72.3%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:36
4TH & 2
OPP 28
+45
74.3%
Abraham Montano 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 16TD
4 plays · 72 yds · 0:5527% → 45%
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
73.1%
Jevon Jackson run for no gain to the UTEP 28Similar
Q3 11:36
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
73.6%
Skyler Locklear pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:36
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+69
74.4%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Kam Thomas for 69 yds to the NMSU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
54.6%
Jevon Jackson run for 3 yds for a TD (Buzz Flabiano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 17DOWNS
9 plays · 41 yds · 3:0061% → 62%
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
60.8%
Mike Washington run for 1 yd to the NMSU 26Similar
Q3 10:41
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+10
60.6%
Parker Awad run for 10 yds to the NMSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
61.8%
PJ Johnson III run for 7 yds to the NMSU 43Similar
Q3 10:41
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+15
63.4%
UTEP Penalty, Personal Foul (Maurice Westmoreland) to the UTEP 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
64.2%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:41
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
63.9%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:46
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+3
64.0%
Tim Gans run for 3 yds to the UTEP 34Similar
Q3 7:41
4TH & 7
OPP 34
0
62.4%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 18TD
5 plays · 66 yds · 1:5641% → 64%
Q3 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+20
58.6%
Jevon Jackson run for 20 yds to the NMSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
55.4%
Skyler Locklear run for 3 yds to the NMSU 43Similar
Q3 7:41
2ND & 7
OPP 43
0
55.6%
Jevon Jackson run for no gain to the NMSU 43Similar
Q3 7:41
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+13
56.0%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Kam Thomas for 13 yds to the NMSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
36.1%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Kenny Odom for 30 yds for a TD (Buzz Flabiano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 19MISSED FG
11 plays · 59 yds · 4:4544% → 42%
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
43.5%
Mike Washington run for 1 yd to the NMSU 26Similar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+25
43.2%
Parker Awad pass complete to TJ Pride for 25 yds to the UTEP 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-3
48.4%
Mike Washington run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMSU 48Similar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 13
OWN 48
+20
45.3%
Parker Awad pass complete to Adam Parks for 20 yds to the UTEP 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
50.7%
Parker Awad pass complete to Tim Gans for 9 yds to the UTEP 23Similar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+4
50.7%
Tim Gans run for 4 yds to the UTEP 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-5
50.6%
New Mexico State Penalty, False Start (AJ Vaipulu) to the UTEP 24Similar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 15
OPP 24
+8
50.1%
Mike Washington run for 8 yds to the UTEP 16Similar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 7
OPP 16
0
50.6%
Mike Washington run for no gain to the UTEP 16Similar
Q3 5:45
3RD & 7
OPP 16
0
48.2%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:00
4TH & 7
OPP 16
+33
42.4%
Carson Zilmer 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -11 yds · 1:0764% → 61%
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
36.3%
Jevon Jackson run for 1 yd to the UTEP 21Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
36.7%
Skyler Locklear pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 9
OWN 21
-12
37.4%
Skyler Locklear sacked by Noah Arinze for a loss of 12 yards to the UTEP 9Similar
Q4 14:53
4TH & 21
OWN 9
0
39.5%
Adam Jacklin punt for 43 yds, fair catch by TJ Pride at the NMSU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 21PUNT RETURN TD
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:3045% → 19%
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
44.7%
Mike Washington run for 4 yds to the UTEP 48Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 6
OPP 48
0
45.4%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 6
OPP 48
-4
44.2%
Parker Awad sacked by Kyran Duhon for a loss of 4 yards to the NMSU 48Similar
Q4 13:23
4TH & 10
OWN 48
+93
19.0%
George Eberle punt for 45 yds , Kam Thomas returns for 93 yds for a TD (Buzz Flabiano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 22FUMBLE RETURN TD
2 plays · -12 yds · 0:0819% → 7%
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-5
19.0%
New Mexico State Penalty, False Start (Adam Parks) to the NMSU 12Similar
Q4 13:12
1ST & 15
OWN 12
+5
7.4%
Bryton Thompson 5 Yd Fumble Return (Buzz Flabiano Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 23DOWNS
10 plays · 24 yds · 3:148% → 5%
Q4 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
7.6%
Mike Washington run for 1 yd to the NMSU 26Similar
Q4 13:12
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
7.5%
Parker Awad pass complete to TJ Pride for 1 yd to the NMSU 27Similar
Q4 13:12
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+8
7.4%
Parker Awad pass complete to TJ Pride for 8 yds to the NMSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
7.7%
Parker Awad sacked by Sione Tonga'uiha for a loss of 5 yards to the NMSU 30Similar
Q4 13:12
2ND & 15
OWN 30
+3
7.4%
Mike Washington run for 3 yds to the NMSU 33Similar
Q4 13:12
3RD & 12
OWN 33
+15
7.4%
AWAD, Parker pass deep to the right incomplete intended for JOHNSON III, PJ thrown to the UTEP35. PENALTY UTEP Pass Interference on ALLEN, Josiah enforced 15 yards to the NMSU48 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
8.1%
Parker Awad run for 3 yds to the UTEP 49Similar
Q4 13:12
2ND & 7
OPP 49
0
8.3%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:12
3RD & 7
OPP 49
-2
8.2%
Parker Awad pass complete to Mike Washington for a loss of 2 yards to the NMSU 49Similar
Q4 9:58
4TH & 9
OWN 49
0
5.4%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 24DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4496% → 97%
Q4 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
3.6%
Jevon Jackson run for no gain to the NMSU 49Similar
Q4 9:58
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+2
3.7%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Kam Thomas for 2 yds to the NMSU 47Similar
Q4 9:58
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+6
3.7%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Kam Thomas for 6 yds to the NMSU 41Similar
Q4 8:14
4TH & 2
OPP 41
0
3.4%
Skyler Locklear pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 25TD
3 plays · 59 yds · 0:525% → 19%
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
5.1%
Mike Washington run for 4 yds to the NMSU 45Similar
Q4 8:14
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+25
5.1%
Parker Awad run for 25 yds to the UTEP 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
18.5%
PJ Johnson III 30 Yd pass from Parker Awad (Mike Washington Run for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 22 yds · 2:4986% → 89%
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
14.0%
Jevon Jackson run for 13 yds to the UTEP 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
12.7%
Jevon Jackson run for 8 yds to the UTEP 46Similar
Q4 7:22
2ND & 2
OWN 46
-1
12.4%
Jevon Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTEP 45Similar
Q4 7:22
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+2
12.9%
Skyler Locklear run for 2 yds to the UTEP 47Similar
Q4 4:33
4TH & 1
OWN 47
0
10.6%
Adam Jacklin punt for 52 yds, downed at the NMSU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 27FG
23 plays · 93 yds · 4:0913% → 21%
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
13.1%
Parker Awad run for 1 yd to the NMSU 2Similar
Q4 4:33
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+2
12.8%
Mike Washington run for 2 yds to the NMSU 4Similar
Q4 4:33
3RD & 7
OWN 4
+9
12.0%
Parker Awad pass complete to TJ Pride for 9 yds to the NMSU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
13.5%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:33
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+1
13.2%
Parker Awad run for 1 yd to the NMSU 14Similar
Q4 4:33
3RD & 9
OWN 14
0
12.4%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:33
4TH & 9
OWN 14
+13
11.6%
Parker Awad pass complete to Jordan Smith for 13 yds to the NMSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-10
14.0%
pass incomplete New Mexico State Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Parker Awad) to the NMSU 17Similar
Q4 4:33
2ND & 20
OWN 17
+13
13.2%
Parker Awad pass complete to Jordan Smith for 13 yds to the NMSU 30Similar
Q4 4:33
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+10
13.0%
Parker Awad run for 10 yds to the NMSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
16.3%
Parker Awad run for 8 yds to the NMSU 48Similar
Q4 4:33
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+16
18.0%
Parker Awad pass complete to Isaiah Rudison for 16 yds to the UTEP 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
18.4%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:33
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
18.2%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:33
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+5
16.7%
AWAD, Parker pass to the right complete for 4 yards to WASHINGTON, Mike caught at the UTEP37 and advanced to the UTEP32 (SHELTON, Jaylon), out of bounds. PENALTY UTEP Offsides enforced 5 yards from the UTEP36 to the UTEP31 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 1:05
3RD & 5
OPP 31
-2
10.1%
Parker Awad sacked by Sione Tonga'uiha and Hunter Rapolla for a loss of 2 yards to the UTEP 33Similar
Q4 1:05
4TH & 7
OPP 33
+10
7.6%
ZILMER, Carson field goal attempt from 51 yards NO GOOD (short middle) [kick was spotted at UTEP41]. PENALTY UTEP Holding on RAPOLLA, Hunter enforced 10 yards from the UTEP33 to the UTEP23 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [FG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
11.6%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:05
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
10.5%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:05
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+17
8.8%
Mike Washington run for 17 yds to the UTEP 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
11.6%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
20.6%
Abraham Montano 23 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 28END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
4.0%
[NHSG] Kneel down by LOCKLEAR, Skyler at NMSU44 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:45
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Kenny Odom for 30 yds for a TD (Buzz Flabiano KICK)
-19.9
TD · Q3 10:41
Jevon Jackson run for 3 yds for a TD (Buzz Flabiano KICK)
-19.8
TD · Q2 12:36
Parker Awad pass complete to TJ Pride for 35 yds for a TD (Abraham Montano KICK)
+18.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com