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SHSU

Sam Houston 41 at UTEP 21

UTEP
2024 · Week 6 · Oct 3, 2024 · Sun Bowl
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Win probability · UTEP
modelUTEP aheadSHSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUTEP scoreSHSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFUMBLEFGTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of GameFG-2.1UTEP 25.8%Christian Pavon 19 yd FG GOODAWAY 17 - HOME 7 · Q2 0:17
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:17 · Christian Pavon 19 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+55.0+27.50−27.5−55.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 105Home team on offense−12.3Pregame prior−13.6Score differential−5.0Garbage-time factor−1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:24: DJ McKinney run for 23 yds for a TD (Christian Pavon KICK) — SHSU win probability +14.1 pts (now 85%) (top driver: SHSU has the ball).
  2. FUMBLE · Q2 3:12: Hunter Watson run for a loss of 1 yard Hunter Watson fumbled, recovered by UTEP Kory Chapman K. Chapman return for 0 yds for a TD (Buzz Flabiano KICK) — UTEP win probability +15.9 pts (now 31%) (top driver: SHSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:17: Christian Pavon 19 yd FG GOOD — SHSU win probability +2.1 pts (now 74%) (top driver: SHSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 13:23: Hunter Watson pass complete to Qua'Vez Humphreys for 33 yds for a TD (Christian Pavon KICK) — SHSU win probability +9.6 pts (now 87%) (top driver: SHSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 5:48: Hunter Watson pass complete to Michael Phoenix II for 34 yds for a TD (Christian Pavon KICK) — SHSU win probability +6.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: SHSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UTEP made the numbers' call on 8 of 9SHSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 9:36UTEP 4th & 6 at UTEP 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.8%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:35SHSU 4th & 1 at SHSU 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    71.9%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:35SHSU 4th & 14 at SHSU 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.9%−0.6
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:37UTEP 4th & 14 at UTEP 5, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.8%−1.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:59SHSU 4th & 12 at UTEP 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.3%−0.3
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    71.2%−0.4
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    71.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:59UTEP 4th & 10 at UTEP 10, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.6%−0.5
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:58SHSU 4th & 6 at UTEP 43, up 7
    Close callPunted · 71.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    71.4%−0.6
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    71.8%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:40UTEP 4th & 6 at UTEP 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.1%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:22SHSU 4th & 4 at SHSU 18, up 7
    Close callPunted · 69.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.6%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.5%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:51UTEP 4th & 17 at SHSU 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.4%−0.9
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    27.8%−0.5
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    28.3%
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:27UTEP 4th & 11 at UTEP 33, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.7%−0.9
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.7%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:17SHSU 4th & 2 at UTEP 2, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 74.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.9%−0.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    69.1%−5.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 14:10UTEP 4th & 9 at UTEP 26, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.6%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:07UTEP 4th & 13 at UTEP 22, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.5%−1.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:02SHSU 4th & 9 at SHSU 35, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.4%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:12SHSU 4th & 15 at SHSU 2, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.7%−0.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.3%
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:17SHSU 4th & 1 at UTEP 36, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    96.3%−0.8
    42% to make
    Punt
    96.1%−1.0
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:07SHSU 4th & 5 at UTEP 25, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.2%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.3%
    66% to make
    Punt
    96.1%−1.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:26UTEP 4th & 26 at SHSU 46, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    1.0%
    23% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTEP made the numbers' call on 2 of 2SHSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 12:45SHSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:24SHSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 13:23SHSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:48SHSU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:03SHSU Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:23UTEP Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:25UTEP Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.2%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SHSUDrive 1TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:1575% → 74%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
25.3%
Jay Ducker run for 2 yds to the SHSU 27Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-5
25.6%
Sam Houston Penalty, False Start (Ethan Hagler) to the SHSU 22Similar
Q1 14:19
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+3
25.7%
Hunter Watson run for 3 yds to the SHSU 25Similar
Q1 13:51
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+12
25.9%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Ife Adeyi for 12 yds to the SHSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
26.1%
(13:19) WATSON, Hunter pass deep to the left incomplete intended for HUMPHREYS, Qua'Vez broken up by BOYD-MATTHEWS, Amier at the UTEP38, clock 13:14. PENALTY UTEP Pass Interference on BOYD-MATTHEWS, Amier enforced 15 yards to the UTEP48 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
26.0%
Noah Smith run for 9 yds to the UTEP 39Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+39
25.6%
Jay Ducker run for 39 yds for a TD (Christian Pavon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 3:0426% → 26%
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
25.6%
Kam Thomas run for no gain to the UTEP 12Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+5
25.7%
Kam Thomas run for 5 yds to the UTEP 17Similar
Q1 11:43
3RD & 5
OWN 17
+6
25.8%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Kam Thomas for 6 yds to the UTEP 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
26.0%
Kam Thomas run for 3 yds to the UTEP 26Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 7
OWN 26
-10
26.0%
UTEP Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UTEP 16Similar
Q1 10:21
2ND & 17
OWN 16
+11
26.0%
Kam Thomas run for 11 yds to the UTEP 27Similar
Q1 9:41
3RD & 6
OWN 27
0
26.2%
Cade McConnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:36
4TH & 6
OWN 27
0
26.0%
Adam Jacklin punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 3DOWNS
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:5574% → 74%
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
25.8%
(09:30) WATSON, Hunter pass deep to the left complete for 28 yards to HUMPHREYS, Qua'Vez caught at the UTEP32 and advanced to the UTEP32 (BOYD-MATTHEWS, Amier), out of bounds, clock 09:24. PENALTY SHSU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on HAGLER, Ethan enforced 5 yards from the SHSU40 to the SHSU35 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 9:16
1ST & 15
OWN 35
+5
26.3%
Hunter Watson run for 5 yds to the SHSU 40Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+9
25.8%
DJ McKinney run for 9 yds to the SHSU 49Similar
Q1 8:16
3RD & 1
OWN 49
0
25.8%
Hunter Watson run for no gain to the SHSU 49Similar
Q1 7:35
4TH & 1
OWN 49
0
26.2%
Jay Ducker run for no gain to the SHSU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 4INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q1 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
27.1%
Trey Goodman pass intercepted Caleb Weaver return for no gain to the SHSU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:4874% → 73%
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
26.4%
Hunter Watson run for 3 yds to the SHSU 23Similar
Q1 6:53
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+19
26.4%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Noah Smith for 19 yds to the SHSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
26.0%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Michael Phoenix II for 3 yds to the SHSU 45Similar
Q1 5:54
2ND & 7
OWN 45
-3
26.1%
Hunter Watson sacked by Bryton Thompson and KD Johnson for a loss of 3 yards to the SHSU 42Similar
Q1 5:14
3RD & 10
OWN 42
-4
26.5%
Hunter Watson sacked by Kory Chapman and Devin Goree for a loss of 4 yards to the SHSU 38Similar
Q1 4:35
4TH & 14
OWN 38
0
27.2%
Jadon Cardell punt for 53 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:4827% → 26%
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-7
26.7%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Kam Thomas for a loss of 7 yards to the UTEP 2Similar
Q1 3:56
2ND & 17
OWN 2
0
26.7%
Cade McConnell run for no gain to the UTEP 2Similar
Q1 3:17
3RD & 17
OWN 2
+3
26.5%
Jevon Jackson run for 3 yds to the UTEP 5Similar
Q1 2:37
4TH & 14
OWN 5
0
26.2%
Adam Jacklin punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:2774% → 73%
Q1 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
26.1%
Hunter Watson run for 3 yds to the UTEP 38Similar
Q1 1:54
2ND & 7
OPP 38
-10
25.9%
Sam Houston Penalty, Offensive Holding (Isaiah Cash) to the UTEP 46Similar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 15
OPP 46
+3
26.4%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Jay Ducker for 3 yds to the UTEP 43Similar
Q1 1:04
3RD & 12
OPP 43
0
26.4%
Hunter Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:59
4TH & 12
OPP 43
0
27.2%
Jadon Cardell punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Kam Thomas at the UTEP 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5327% → 26%
Q1 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
27.0%
Cade McConnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:48
2ND & 10
OWN 10
0
26.9%
Kam Thomas run for no gain to the UTEP 10 Kam Thomas fumbled, recovered by UTEP Kam Thomas K. Thomas return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q1 0:01
3RD & 10
OWN 10
0
26.6%
Cade McConnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:59
4TH & 10
OWN 10
+8
26.4%
Adam Jacklin punt for 45 yds , Ife Adeyi returns for 8 yds to the UTEP 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:4774% → 73%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
26.1%
Hunter Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:40
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+4
26.1%
Hunter Watson run for 4 yds to the UTEP 43Similar
Q2 14:04
3RD & 6
OPP 43
0
26.3%
Hunter Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:58
4TH & 6
OPP 43
0
26.9%
Jadon Cardell punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Kam Thomas at the UTEP 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 10PUNT
10 plays · 34 yds · 2:1327% → 28%
Q2 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+8
26.9%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Trey Goodman for 8 yds to the UTEP 17Similar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 2
OWN 17
+10
27.4%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Trey Goodman for 10 yds to the UTEP 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
27.5%
Jevon Jackson run for 7 yds to the UTEP 34Similar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 3
OWN 34
0
28.2%
Cade McConnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+5
27.7%
Jevon Jackson run for 5 yds to the UTEP 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
28.2%
Cade McConnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:24
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+4
28.0%
Jevon Jackson run for 4 yds to the UTEP 43Similar
Q2 11:44
3RD & 6
OWN 43
0
28.3%
Cade McConnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:40
4TH & 6
OWN 43
0
27.6%
Adam Jacklin punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Ife Adeyi at the SHSU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1173% → 72%
Q2 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
27.4%
Hunter Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:26
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+1
27.6%
Jay Ducker run for 1 yd to the SHSU 13Similar
Q2 10:48
3RD & 9
OWN 13
+5
28.0%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Noah Smith for 5 yds to the SHSU 18Similar
Q2 10:22
4TH & 4
OWN 18
+10
28.4%
Jadon Cardell punt for 42 yds , Kam Thomas returns for 10 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 7 yds · 2:2029% → 29%
Q2 10:11
1ST & 10
50
+5
29.1%
Ezell Jolly run for 5 yds to the SHSU 45Similar
Q2 9:55
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+4
29.0%
Ezell Jolly run for 4 yds to the SHSU 41Similar
Q2 9:37
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+5
28.8%
Ezell Jolly run for 5 yds to the SHSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-5
29.1%
UTEP Penalty, False Start (Trey Goodman) to the SHSU 41Similar
Q2 8:54
1ST & 15
OPP 41
-2
28.3%
Ezell Jolly run for a loss of 2 yards to the SHSU 43Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 17
OPP 43
0
30.7%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Kenny Odom for no gain to the SHSU 43Similar
Q2 7:58
3RD & 17
OPP 43
0
29.3%
Cade McConnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:51
4TH & 17
OPP 43
0
28.7%
Adam Jacklin punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Noah Smith at the SHSU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 13TD
11 plays · 81 yds · 3:0674% → 85%
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
26.4%
Hunter Watson run for 2 yds to the SHSU 21Similar
Q2 7:17
2ND & 8
OWN 21
0
26.6%
Hunter Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:12
3RD & 8
OWN 21
+13
27.1%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Noah Smith for 13 yds to the SHSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+12
25.6%
Hunter Watson pass complete to DJ McKinney for 12 yds to the SHSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
24.9%
Hunter Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:53
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+12
25.0%
Hunter Watson pass complete to DJ McKinney for 12 yds to the UTEP 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
29.1%
Hunter Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:28
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+11
29.2%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Jyzaiah Rockwell for 11 yds to the UTEP 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+8
28.9%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Simeon Evans for 8 yds to the UTEP 23Similar
Q2 4:24
2ND & 2
OPP 23
+23
14.8%
DJ McKinney run for 23 yds for a TD (Christian Pavon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 14 yds · 0:5115% → 15%
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+15
15.0%
Sam Houston Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the UTEP 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
15.1%
Cade McConnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:16
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-1
15.0%
Ezell Jolly run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTEP 33Similar
Q2 3:33
3RD & 11
OWN 33
0
15.0%
Cade McConnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:27
4TH & 11
OWN 33
0
15.0%
Adam Jacklin punt for 66 yds, downed at the SHSU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 15FUMBLE TD
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q2 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
30.8%
Hunter Watson run for a loss of 1 yard Hunter Watson fumbled, recovered by UTEP Kory Chapman K. Chapman return for 0 yds for a TD (Buzz Flabiano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 16FG
18 plays · 73 yds · 2:5570% → 74%
Q2 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
30.0%
Sam Houston Penalty, Delay Of Game (Hunter Watson) to the SHSU 20Similar
Q2 3:12
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+4
30.6%
Jay Ducker run for 4 yds to the SHSU 24Similar
Q2 2:39
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+10
30.3%
(02:39) WATSON, Hunter pass to the left incomplete intended for HUMPHREYS, Qua'Vez thrown to the SHSU36; QB hurried by JONES, Jaylin, clock 02:34. PENALTY UTEP Holding on SHELTON, Jaylon enforced 10 yards from the SHSU24 to the SHSU34 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+14
29.2%
Ife Adeyi run for 14 yds to the SHSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
28.3%
Hunter Watson run for 3 yds to the UTEP 49Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+6
27.8%
DJ McKinney run for 6 yds to the UTEP 43Similar
Q2 1:35
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+8
27.8%
DJ McKinney run for 8 yds to the UTEP 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
27.2%
DJ McKinney run for no gain to the UTEP 35Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+14
27.4%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Qua'Vez Humphreys for 14 yds to the UTEP 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
27.0%
Hunter Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+11
27.2%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Simeon Evans for 11 yds to the UTEP 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
27.0%
Hunter Watson run for 7 yds to the UTEP 3Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
25.1%
Hunter Watson run for 1 yd to the UTEP 2Similar
Q2 0:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
27.9%
Hunter Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
25.8%
Christian Pavon 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 17END OF HALF
1 play · 4 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
23.6%
Ezell Jolly run for 4 yds to the UTEP 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5024% → 22%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
23.5%
Ezell Jolly run for 17 yds to the UTEP 42 UTEP Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UTEP 17Similar
Q3 14:42
1ST & 18
OWN 17
+9
23.3%
Ezell Jolly run for 9 yds to the UTEP 26Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
23.4%
Cade McConnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:15
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
22.5%
Cade McConnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:10
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
22.1%
Adam Jacklin punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 19TD
3 plays · 62 yds · 0:3878% → 87%
Q3 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+14
22.5%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Jay Ducker for 14 yds to the UTEP 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
22.8%
UTEP Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the UTEP 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
13.2%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Qua'Vez Humphreys for 33 yds for a TD (Christian Pavon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 20FUMBLE
9 plays · 70 yds · 2:0515% → 16%
Q3 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
15.2%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Ezell Jolly for 5 yds to the UTEP 25Similar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+6
15.4%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Kam Thomas for 6 yds to the UTEP 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
15.2%
(12:43) MCCONNELL, Cade pass to the right incomplete intended for THOMAS, Kam thrown to the UTEP40, clock 12:40. PENALTY UTEP Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on ESCOBAR, Ivan enforced 5 yards from the UTEP31 to the UTEP26 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:36
1ST & 15
OWN 26
+49
14.9%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Kenny Odom for 49 yds to the SHSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
16.9%
Ezell Jolly run for 9 yds to the SHSU 16Similar
Q3 11:53
2ND & 1
OPP 16
-10
16.8%
(11:53) JOLLY, Ezell rush to the left for a gain of 1 yard to the SHSU15 (JIMMERSON, Jaylon;ARMSTEAD, Da'Veawn), clock 11:48. PENALTY UTEP Holding on VINSON, Marcus enforced 10 yards from the SHSU16 to the SHSU26 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 11:36
2ND & 11
OPP 26
+7
16.5%
Kam Thomas run for 7 yds to the SHSU 19Similar
Q3 11:12
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+9
16.3%
Ezell Jolly run for 9 yds to the SHSU 10 Ezell Jolly fumbled, recovered by SHSU Issiah Nixon I. Nixon return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 21TD
12 plays · 90 yds · 4:5287% → 97%
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
13.0%
DJ McKinney run for 1 yd to the SHSU 11Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+7
13.0%
DJ McKinney run for 7 yds to the SHSU 18Similar
Q3 9:42
3RD & 2
OWN 18
+7
13.0%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Simeon Evans for 7 yds to the SHSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
12.4%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Ife Adeyi for 10 yds to the SHSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
12.1%
Jay Ducker run for 8 yds to the SHSU 43Similar
Q3 7:52
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+11
11.1%
Jay Ducker run for 11 yds to the UTEP 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
10.5%
Hunter Watson pass complete to DJ McKinney for 4 yds to the UTEP 42Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+9
10.2%
Hunter Watson run for 9 yds to the UTEP 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
9.7%
Hunter Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 10
OPP 33
-1
9.9%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Simeon Evans for a loss of 1 yard to the UTEP 34Similar
Q3 5:48
3RD & 11
OPP 34
+34
3.1%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Michael Phoenix II for 34 yds for a TD (Christian Pavon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:413% → 2%
Q3 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
2.6%
UTEP Penalty, Delay Of Game (Cade McConnell) to the UTEP 20Similar
Q3 5:48
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
2.6%
Cade McConnell run for no gain to the UTEP 20Similar
Q3 5:14
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+1
2.5%
Ezell Jolly run for 1 yd to the UTEP 21Similar
Q3 4:35
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+1
2.2%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Kam Thomas for 1 yd to the UTEP 22Similar
Q3 4:07
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
2.1%
Adam Jacklin punt for 46 yds , Ife Adeyi returns for no gain to the SHSU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 23TD
3 plays · 68 yds · 0:5397% → 99%
Q3 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
2.9%
DJ McKinney run for 7 yds to the SHSU 39Similar
Q3 3:36
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+2
2.7%
DJ McKinney run for 2 yds to the SHSU 41Similar
Q3 3:03
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+59
0.9%
DJ McKinney run for 59 yds for a TD (Christian Pavon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 24TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:401% → 2%
Q3 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
0.5%
Cade McConnell run for 5 yds to the UTEP 30Similar
Q3 2:41
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
0.4%
Ezell Jolly run for 3 yds to the UTEP 33Similar
Q3 2:11
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-5
0.4%
UTEP Penalty, Illegal Snap on ESCOBAR, Ivan enforced (-5 Yards) to the UTEP 28Similar
Q3 1:57
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+10
0.4%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Kenny Odom for 10 yds to the UTEP 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
0.5%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Kenny Odom for 11 yds to the UTEP 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
0.4%
Cade McConnell sacked by Denver Warren for a loss of 1 yard to the UTEP 48Similar
Q3 0:23
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+52
1.6%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Marcus Vinson for 52 yds for a TD (Buzz Flabiano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:1598% → 98%
Q3 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
2.4%
Jase Bauer run for 1 yd to the SHSU 35Similar
Q4 14:59
2ND & 9
OWN 35
0
2.4%
Jase Bauer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 9
OWN 35
+5
2.4%
Jase Bauer run for 5 yds to the SHSU 40Similar
Q4 14:07
4TH & 4
OWN 40
-5
2.2%
Sam Houston Penalty, False Start (Quan Williams) to the SHSU 35Similar
Q4 14:02
4TH & 9
OWN 35
+10
2.3%
Jadon Cardell punt for 40 yds , Kam Thomas returns for 10 yds to the UTEP 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 26INT
7 plays · 20 yds · 1:271% → 1%
Q4 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
1.2%
Ezell Jolly run for no gain to the UTEP 35Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+15
1.2%
(13:30) MCCONNELL, Cade pass deep to the left incomplete intended for WHITE, Emari broken up by ARMSTEAD, Da'Veawn at the SHSU25, clock 13:23. PENALTY SHSU Pass Interference on ARMSTEAD, Da'Veawn enforced 15 yards to the UTEP50 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 13:24
1ST & 10
50
+3
1.2%
Cade McConnell run for 3 yds to the SHSU 47Similar
Q4 12:59
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+2
1.3%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Emari White for 2 yds to the SHSU 45Similar
Q4 12:24
3RD & 5
OPP 45
0
1.2%
Cade McConnell pass intercepted Jaylon Jimmerson return for no gain to the SHSU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 2:0399% → 99%
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
1.5%
Michael Phoenix II run for 4 yds to the SHSU 11Similar
Q4 11:33
2ND & 6
OWN 11
+1
1.3%
Jase Bauer run for 1 yd to the SHSU 12Similar
Q4 10:57
3RD & 5
OWN 12
-10
1.3%
Jase Bauer sacked by Bryton Thompson and Maurice Westmoreland for a loss of 10 yards to the SHSU 2Similar
Q4 10:12
4TH & 15
OWN 2
0
1.2%
Jadon Cardell punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Kam Thomas at the SHSU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 28TD
3 plays · 40 yds · 0:401% → 3%
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+26
1.1%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Trey Goodman for 26 yds to the SHSU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+10
1.3%
Ezell Jolly run for 10 yds to the SHSU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
3.3%
Ezell Jolly run for 4 yds for a TD (Buzz Flabiano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 29FG
16 plays · 50 yds · 7:1198% → 100%
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
2.2%
DJ McKinney run for 9 yds to the SHSU 34Similar
Q4 8:42
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
2.0%
DJ McKinney run for 2 yds to the SHSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
1.8%
Jase Bauer run for 5 yds to the SHSU 41Similar
Q4 7:23
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+2
1.7%
DJ McKinney run for 2 yds to the SHSU 43Similar
Q4 6:38
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+12
1.6%
Jase Bauer run for 12 yds to the UTEP 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
1.3%
Jase Bauer run for 5 yds to the UTEP 40Similar
Q4 5:11
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+3
1.0%
DJ McKinney run for 3 yds to the UTEP 37Similar
Q4 4:32
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+1
0.8%
Jase Bauer run for 1 yd to the UTEP 36Similar
Q4 4:17
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+6
0.9%
Jase Bauer run for 6 yds to the UTEP 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
0.8%
Jay Ducker run for 6 yds to the UTEP 24Similar
Q4 2:53
2ND & 4
OPP 24
-1
0.7%
Jay Ducker run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTEP 25Similar
Q4 2:16
3RD & 5
OPP 25
0
0.6%
Jase Bauer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:07
4TH & 5
OPP 25
+42
0.3%
Christian Pavon 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 30DOWNS
9 plays · -23 yds · 1:410% → 0%
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
0.2%
Ezell Jolly run for 10 yds to the UTEP 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+25
0.2%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Kam Thomas for 25 yds to the SHSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-15
0.3%
(01:45) JOLLY, Ezell rush to the right for a gain of 19 yards to the SHSU11 (FIELDS, Trey;WEAVER, Caleb), clock 01:37. PENALTY UTEP Chop Block on WHITEHEAD, RJ enforced 15 yards from the SHSU30 to the SHSU45 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 1:19
1ST & 25
OPP 45
-5
0.2%
Cade McConnell sacked by Chris Murray and Trey Fields for a loss of 5 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 0:56
2ND & 30
50
+4
0.2%
Ezell Jolly run for 4 yds to the SHSU 46Similar
Q4 0:35
3RD & 26
OPP 46
0
0.2%
Cade McConnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:26
4TH & 26
OPP 46
-4
0.2%
Cade McConnell sacked for a loss of 4 yards to the UTEP 12 Cade McConnell fumbled, recovered by SHSU Trey Fields , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 31END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-2
0.3%
(00:17) [NHSG] Kneel down by BAUER, Jase at UTEP14 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FUMBLE · Q2 3:12
Hunter Watson run for a loss of 1 yard Hunter Watson fumbled, recovered by UTEP Kory Chapman K. Chapman return for 0 yds for a TD (Buzz Flabiano KICK)
+15.9
TD · Q2 4:24
DJ McKinney run for 23 yds for a TD (Christian Pavon KICK)
-14.1
TD · Q3 13:23
Hunter Watson pass complete to Qua'Vez Humphreys for 33 yds for a TD (Christian Pavon KICK)
-9.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com