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NMSU

New Mexico State 36 at Middle Tennessee 21

MTSU
2024 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2024 · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
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Win probability · MTSU
modelMTSU aheadNMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMTSU scoreNMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:40 · Nicholas Vattiato run for no gain to the NMSU 36
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+45.5+22.80−22.8−45.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 57Home team on offense−1.8Pregame prior+10.8Score differential−1.0Garbage-time factor−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:55: Brandon Nunez pass complete to Seth McGowan for 12 yds for a TD (Abraham Montano KICK) — NMSU win probability +15.6 pts (now 71%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 3:56: Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Holden Willis for 12 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK) — MTSU win probability +18.2 pts (now 52%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  3. TD · Q3 1:22: Mike Washington run for 11 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — NMSU win probability +15.2 pts (now 80%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:41: Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Omari Kelly for 19 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK) — MTSU win probability +18.4 pts (now 43%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. TD · Q4 7:43: Brandon Nunez pass complete to Cooper Sheehan for 4 yds for a TD (Abraham Montano KICK) — NMSU win probability +15.4 pts (now 91%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MTSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6NMSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 9:56MTSU 4th & 17 at MTSU 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.0%−0.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:22NMSU 4th & 11 at MTSU 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.8%−0.6
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.3%
    68% to make
    Punt
    42.6%−2.8
    average punt
  3. Q2 7:21NMSU 4th & 2 at NMSU 47, up 3
    Close callPunted · 45.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.9%−1.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 2:40MTSU 4th & 1 at NMSU 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    53.1%−2.6
    42% to make
    Punt
    52.1%−3.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:35NMSU 4th & 5 at MTSU 9, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.2%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.5%
    89% to make
    Punt
    42.3%−6.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:18MTSU 4th & 4 at MTSU 46, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.8%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.9%
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:59NMSU 4th & 14 at NMSU 10, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.6%−2.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.8%
    average punt
  8. Q4 12:41MTSU 4th & 5 at NMSU 19, down 12
    Close callWent for it · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.2%−1.0
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    22.2%
    77% to make
    Punt
    14.6%−7.6
    average punt
  9. Q4 5:57MTSU 4th & 6 at NMSU 38, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    10.1%−0.7
    38% to make
    Punt
    8.9%−1.9
    average punt
  10. Q4 1:55NMSU 4th & 4 at MTSU 4, up 12
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.7%−0.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    93.3%−2.7
    average punt
  11. Q4 0:40MTSU 4th & 2 at MTSU 43, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.2%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MTSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3NMSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 12:46NMSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:56MTSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:55NMSU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:56MTSU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:22NMSU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    78.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    78.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:41MTSU Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:43NMSU Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.1%−0.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MTSUDrive 1INT TD
4 plays · 14 yds · 2:0170% → 69%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
69.7%
Terry Wilkins run for 5 yds to the MTSU 20Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+2
69.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Cam'ron Lacy for 2 yds to the MTSU 22Similar
Q1 13:25
3RD & 3
OWN 22
+7
69.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jekail Middlebrook for 7 yds to the MTSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-30
68.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass intercepted Dylan Early return for 30 yds for a TD (Abraham Montano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 2:4569% → 67%
Q1 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
68.7%
Jaiden Credle run for 3 yds to the MTSU 38Similar
Q1 12:05
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+13
68.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Hayes Sutton for 13 yds to the NMSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
68.5%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 5 yds to the NMSU 44Similar
Q1 11:07
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+3
68.3%
Jaiden Credle run for 3 yds to the NMSU 41Similar
Q1 10:25
3RD & 2
OPP 41
-15
68.0%
(10:25) VATTIATO, Nicholas pass to the left complete for 14 yards to KELLY, Omari caught at the NMS35 and advanced to the NMS27 (BARNES, Tayden), clock 10:26. PENALTY MTSU Face mask on JAMES, Markel enforced 15 yards from the NMS41 to the MTSU44 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 9:59
3RD & 17
OWN 44
0
67.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:56
4TH & 17
OWN 44
+17
67.1%
Trey Turk punt for 47 yds , TJ Pride returns for 17 yds to the NMSU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 3FG
15 plays · 50 yds · 7:1433% → 38%
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
67.0%
Mike Washington run for 5 yds to the NMSU 31Similar
Q1 9:09
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+12
66.5%
Parker Awad pass complete to Seth McGowan for 12 yds to the NMSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
65.8%
Parker Awad run for 5 yds to the NMSU 48Similar
Q1 7:55
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+1
65.5%
Seth McGowan run for 1 yd to the NMSU 49Similar
Q1 7:32
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+4
65.2%
Parker Awad pass complete to TJ Pride for 4 yds to the MTSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-3
64.7%
Parker Awad run for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 6:22
2ND & 13
50
+12
64.6%
Seth McGowan run for 12 yds to the MTSU 38Similar
Q1 5:41
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+4
63.9%
Mike Washington run for 4 yds to the MTSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
63.5%
Mike Washington run for no gain to the MTSU 34Similar
Q1 4:38
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+2
63.1%
Mike Washington run for 2 yds to the MTSU 32Similar
Q1 3:58
3RD & 8
OPP 32
+9
62.9%
Parker Awad pass complete to TJ Pride for 9 yds to the MTSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-1
62.3%
Mike Washington run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTSU 24Similar
Q1 3:08
2ND & 11
OPP 24
0
62.1%
Parker Awad run for no gain to the MTSU 24Similar
Q1 2:28
3RD & 11
OPP 24
0
61.8%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:22
4TH & 11
OPP 24
+42
61.7%
Abraham Montano 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 4TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 6:2361% → 67%
Q1 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
60.9%
Jekail Middlebrook run for 4 yds to the MTSU 29Similar
Q1 1:37
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
60.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Evan Poticher for 4 yds to the MTSU 33Similar
Q1 0:58
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+12
60.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Holden Willis for 12 yds to the MTSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
60.3%
VATTIATO, Nicholas pass short to the left incomplete dropped by WILLIS, Holden thrown to the MTSU47, clock 00:23. PENALTY MTSU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on MILLER, Marcus enforced 5 yards from the MTSU45 to the MTSU40 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 0:18
1ST & 15
OWN 40
+18
59.7%
Jekail Middlebrook run for 18 yds to the NMSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
60.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Javonte Sherman for 15 yds to the NMSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:19
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
60.8%
Jekail Middlebrook run for 4 yds to the NMSU 23Similar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 6
OPP 23
0
60.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:35
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+8
59.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Omari Kelly for 8 yds to the NMSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
59.6%
Jekail Middlebrook run for 3 yds to the NMSU 12Similar
Q2 12:17
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+2
59.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Myles Butler for 2 yds to the NMSU 10Similar
Q2 11:32
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+7
57.2%
Jaiden Credle run for 7 yds to the NMSU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
66.8%
Jaiden Credle run for 3 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 33 yds · 3:2137% → 40%
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+14
63.5%
Parker Awad pass complete to Seth McGowan for 14 yds to the NMSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
63.0%
Seth McGowan run for 5 yds to the NMSU 33Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+6
61.9%
Seth McGowan run for 6 yds to the NMSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
61.3%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:46
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+7
61.5%
Parker Awad run for 7 yds to the NMSU 46Similar
Q2 8:02
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+1
59.5%
Seth McGowan run for 1 yd to the NMSU 47Similar
Q2 7:21
4TH & 2
OWN 47
+10
60.0%
George Eberle punt for 50 yds , Kellen Stewart returns for 10 yds to the MTSU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 6DOWNS
10 plays · 51 yds · 4:3760% → 60%
Q2 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+9
60.1%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Evan Poticher for 9 yds to the MTSU 22Similar
Q2 6:36
2ND & 1
OWN 22
0
60.2%
Terry Wilkins run for no gain to the MTSU 22Similar
Q2 5:58
3RD & 1
OWN 22
+2
59.0%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 2 yds to the MTSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
59.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Gamarion Carter for 8 yds to the MTSU 32Similar
Q2 4:46
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+23
61.2%
Terry Wilkins run for 23 yds to the NMSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
62.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:53
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+1
62.1%
Jekail Middlebrook run for 1 yd to the NMSU 44Similar
Q2 3:06
3RD & 9
OPP 44
+8
60.9%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 8 yds to the NMSU 36Similar
Q2 2:40
4TH & 1
OPP 36
0
59.9%
Nicholas Vattiato run for no gain to the NMSU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 7FG
8 plays · 55 yds · 0:3644% → 52%
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
55.6%
Seth McGowan run for 12 yds to the NMSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+38
54.4%
Parker Awad pass complete to Kordell David for 38 yds to the MTSU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
51.6%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+5
51.5%
PJ Johnson III run for 5 yds to the MTSU 9Similar
Q2 1:41
3RD & 5
OPP 9
0
52.7%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:35
4TH & 5
OPP 9
+26
48.0%
Abraham Montano 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:1252% → 52%
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
52.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
51.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jaiden Credle for 9 yds to the MTSU 34Similar
Q2 1:03
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+6
52.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Omari Kelly for 6 yds to the MTSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
53.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+6
52.1%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Myles Butler for 6 yds to the MTSU 46Similar
Q2 0:21
3RD & 4
OWN 46
0
52.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:18
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
51.7%
Grant Chadwick punt for 37 yds, fair catch by TJ Pride at the NMSU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 9END OF HALF
1 play · -9 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-9
49.8%
Mike Washington run for a loss of 9 yards to the NMSU 8 Mike Washington fumbled, recovered by NMSU Mike Washington M. Washington return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:4949% → 49%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-1
50.7%
Parker Awad pass complete to Seth McGowan for a loss of 1 yard to the NMSU 13Similar
Q3 14:08
2ND & 11
OWN 13
+4
50.6%
Parker Awad pass complete to TJ Pride for 4 yds to the NMSU 17Similar
Q3 13:26
3RD & 7
OWN 17
-7
50.8%
Parker Awad sacked by James Stewart for a loss of 7 yards to the NMSU 10Similar
Q3 12:59
4TH & 14
OWN 10
0
51.4%
George Eberle punt for 48 yds , Kellen Stewart returns for no gain to the MTSU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 11INT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:3254% → 51%
Q3 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
54.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Myles Butler for 7 yds to the MTSU 49Similar
Q3 12:13
2ND & 3
OWN 49
-10
54.5%
CREDLE, Jaiden rush to the left for a gain of 14 yards to the NMS37 (MARTINEZ, Tyler), clock 12:13. PENALTY MTSU Holding on POTICHER, Evan enforced 10 yards from the MTSU49 to the MTSU39 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 11:52
2ND & 13
OWN 39
+4
51.4%
Jaiden Credle run for 4 yds to the MTSU 43Similar
Q3 11:16
3RD & 9
OWN 43
0
50.8%
Nicholas Vattiato pass intercepted Sone Aupiu return for no gain to the MTSU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 12TD
3 plays · 49 yds · 1:1555% → 71%
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
44.7%
Seth McGowan run for 3 yds to the MTSU 46Similar
Q3 10:34
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+34
44.3%
Parker Awad pass complete to TJ Pride for 34 yds to the MTSU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
28.6%
Brandon Nunez pass complete to Seth McGowan for 12 yds for a TD (Abraham Montano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 13TD
13 plays · 78 yds · 5:4836% → 52%
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-10
36.0%
(09:44) MIDDLEBROOK, Jekail rush to the right for a gain of 22 yards to the MTSU44 (CROSBY, Da'Marcus), out of bounds, clock 09:43. PENALTY MTSU Holding on WILSON, Simon enforced 10 yards from the MTSU22 to the MTSU12 [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 20
OWN 12
+10
35.6%
Jekail Middlebrook run for 10 yds to the MTSU 22Similar
Q3 8:56
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+4
34.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jekail Middlebrook for 4 yds to the MTSU 26Similar
Q3 8:15
3RD & 6
OWN 26
+10
32.6%
(08:15) VATTIATO, Nicholas pass to the left incomplete intended for KELLY, Omari broken up by HOBBS, Dakerric at the MTSU35, clock 08:17. PENALTY NMS Pass Interference on HOBBS, Dakerric enforced at the spot of the foul for 10 yards to the MTSU36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+17
34.2%
Terry Wilkins run for 17 yds to the NMSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
35.1%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:14
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+11
34.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Omari Kelly for 11 yds to the NMSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
34.7%
Terry Wilkins run for 3 yds to the NMSU 33Similar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+8
36.1%
Jaiden Credle run for 8 yds to the NMSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
34.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:10
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+14
33.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Omari Kelly for 14 yds to the NMSU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-1
33.5%
Jaiden Credle run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMSU 12Similar
Q3 3:56
2ND & 11
OPP 12
+12
51.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Holden Willis for 12 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 14TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 2:2660% → 80%
Q3 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
40.2%
Larenzo McMillan run for 13 yds to the NMSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+43
37.6%
Parker Awad pass complete to Seth McGowan for 43 yds to the MTSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-9
34.9%
Parker Awad sacked by Anthony Bynum for a loss of 9 yards to the MTSU 28Similar
Q3 2:06
2ND & 19
OPP 28
+17
35.2%
Parker Awad run for 17 yds to the MTSU 11Similar
Q3 1:22
3RD & 2
OPP 11
+11
20.1%
Mike Washington run for 11 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 15TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:3626% → 43%
Q3 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
25.7%
Jekail Middlebrook run for 7 yds to the MTSU 32Similar
Q3 0:45
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+16
26.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Myles Butler for 16 yds to the MTSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
26.4%
Jekail Middlebrook run for 12 yds to the NMSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+16
27.3%
Jekail Middlebrook run for 16 yds to the NMSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
27.7%
Terry Wilkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMSU 25Similar
Q4 13:31
2ND & 11
OPP 25
+6
26.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Terry Wilkins for 6 yds to the NMSU 19Similar
Q4 12:49
3RD & 5
OPP 19
0
24.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:41
4TH & 5
OPP 19
+19
43.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Omari Kelly for 19 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 16TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:5264% → 91%
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
36.1%
Mike Washington run for no gain to the NMSU 25Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
36.0%
Mike Washington run for 4 yds to the NMSU 29Similar
Q4 11:23
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+16
34.5%
Parker Awad pass complete to Seth McGowan for 16 yds to the NMSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-2
30.6%
Parker Awad run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMSU 43Similar
Q4 10:16
2ND & 12
OWN 43
+1
31.1%
Mike Washington run for 1 yd to the NMSU 44Similar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 11
OWN 44
+14
30.5%
Parker Awad run for 14 yds to the MTSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+38
26.7%
Parker Awad pass complete to Adam Parks for 38 yds to the MTSU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
24.5%
Brandon Nunez run for no gain to the MTSU 4Similar
Q4 7:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
9.1%
Brandon Nunez pass complete to Cooper Sheehan for 4 yds for a TD (Abraham Montano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 17DOWNS
6 plays · 37 yds · 1:4212% → 12%
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
12.1%
(07:39) VATTIATO, Nicholas pass to the right incomplete thrown to the MTSU40; QB hurried by BEADLES, Justin, clock 07:34. PENALTY MTSU Holding on ELLIS, Ethan enforced 10 yards from the MTSU25 to the MTSU15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 7:26
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+43
11.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Holden Willis for 43 yds to the NMSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
14.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jaiden Credle for no gain to the NMSU 42Similar
Q4 6:29
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+4
12.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Gamarion Carter for 4 yds to the NMSU 38Similar
Q4 6:06
3RD & 6
OPP 38
0
12.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:57
4TH & 6
OPP 38
0
11.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 18FG
12 plays · 58 yds · 3:5492% → 98%
Q4 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
7.7%
Seth McGowan run for 5 yds to the NMSU 43Similar
Q4 5:06
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+4
7.4%
Seth McGowan run for 4 yds to the NMSU 47Similar
Q4 4:24
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+33
6.9%
Seth McGowan run for 33 yds to the MTSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
5.9%
Seth McGowan run for 1 yd to the MTSU 19Similar
Q4 3:33
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+10
5.3%
Parker Awad pass complete to Isaiah Rudison for 10 yds to the MTSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
3.9%
Mike Washington run for 3 yds to the MTSU 6Similar
Q4 2:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
3.8%
Mike Washington run for 2 yds to the MTSU 4Similar
Q4 2:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
3.7%
Seth McGowan run for no gain to the MTSU 4 Seth McGowan fumbled, recovered by NMSU Parker Awad P. Awad return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q4 1:55
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
2.0%
Abraham Montano 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 19END OF GAME
12 plays · 46 yds · 1:501% → 1%
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
0.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Cam'ron Lacy for 6 yds to the MTSU 31Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
1.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jekail Middlebrook for 4 yds to the MTSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
0.9%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 1 yd to the MTSU 36Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+2
0.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jekail Middlebrook for 2 yds to the MTSU 38Similar
Q4 1:01
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+5
0.9%
Jekail Middlebrook run for 5 yds to the MTSU 43Similar
Q4 0:40
4TH & 2
OWN 43
+5
1.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Hayes Sutton for 5 yds to the MTSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
0.8%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:25
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
0.8%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:17
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+11
0.8%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Cam'ron Lacy for 11 yds to the NMSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+12
0.8%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jekail Middlebrook for 12 yds to the NMSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:41
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Omari Kelly for 19 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK)
+18.4
TD · Q3 3:56
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Holden Willis for 12 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK)
+18.2
TD · Q3 9:55
Brandon Nunez pass complete to Seth McGowan for 12 yds for a TD (Abraham Montano KICK)
-15.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com