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MTSU

Middle Tennessee 7 at Memphis 24

MEM
2024 · Week 5 · Sep 28, 2024 · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
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Win probability · MEM
modelMEM aheadMTSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMEM scoreMTSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:45 · Joshua Sloan punt for 40 yds, downed at the MTSU 7
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+46.0+23.00−23.0−46.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 129Pregame prior+10.3Home team on offense+25.8Score differential+14.1Garbage-time factor+12.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+2.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:53: Mario Anderson Jr. run for 4 yds for a TD (Caden Costa KICK) — MEM win probability +2.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:45: Terry Wilkins run for 5 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK) — MTSU win probability +6.3 pts (now 14%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 10:35: Mario Anderson Jr. run for 5 yds to the MTSU 45 — MEM win probability +4.2 pts (now 91%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:13: Brandon Thomas run for 1 yd for a TD (Caden Costa KICK) — MEM win probability +3.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q3 7:12: Jaiden Credle run for no gain to the MTSU 25 — MTSU win probability +1.5 pts (now 6%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 8MTSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 13:17MEM 4th & 7 at MTSU 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.8%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:09MTSU 4th & 16 at MTSU 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.3%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:45MTSU 4th & 4 at MTSU 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:10MEM 4th & 9 at MTSU 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.4%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.5%
    80% to make
    Punt
    92.0%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:58MEM 4th & 12 at MTSU 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.9%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    90.8%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    91.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:44MTSU 4th & 2 at MTSU 33, down 7
    Close callPunted · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:01MEM 4th & 9 at MTSU 34, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 91.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.4%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    91.4%
    47% to make
    Punt
    91.2%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:54MTSU 4th & 4 at MEM 45, down 14
    Close callPunted · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    6.4%−0.4
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    6.5%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:51MEM 4th & 10 at MEM 46, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.2%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:37MTSU 4th & 12 at midfield, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.7%−0.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:21MEM 4th & 8 at MTSU 29, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.5%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.7%
    58% to make
    Punt
    93.2%−2.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:02MTSU 4th & 7 at MEM 42, down 17
    Close callPunted · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    3.0%−0.5
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    3.3%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:45MEM 4th & 12 at MTSU 47, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.2%−0.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:31MTSU 4th & 26 at MTSU 45, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%−0.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:45MEM 4th & 6 at MEM 44, up 17
    Close callPunted · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:40MTSU 4th & 10 at MTSU 40, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.4%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.4%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MTSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 13:41MEM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:53MEM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:45MTSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:13MEM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MEMDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:4096% → 96%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+18
95.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Anthony Landphere for 18 yds to the MEM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
95.7%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 3 yds to the MTSU 48Similar
Q1 13:59
2ND & 7
OPP 48
0
95.7%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:54
3RD & 7
OPP 48
0
95.7%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Anthony Landphere for no gain to the MTSU 48Similar
Q1 13:17
4TH & 7
OPP 48
0
95.5%
Joshua Sloan punt for 36 ydsSimilar
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-6
95.5%
(13:12) VATTIATO, Nicholas pass to the left incomplete intended for BUTLER, Myles broken up by ROSS, Davion at the MTSU20, clock 13:10. PENALTY MTSU Holding on BYARD, Muaaz enforced half the distance from the goal, 6 yards from the MTSU12 to the MTSU6 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:595% → 5%
Q1 13:08
1ST & 16
OWN 6
0
95.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:01
2ND & 16
OWN 6
0
95.5%
Jaiden Credle run for no gain to the MTSU 6Similar
Q1 12:19
3RD & 16
OWN 6
0
95.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:09
4TH & 16
OWN 6
+34
95.4%
Grant Chadwick punt for 34 yds , Koby Drake returns for no gain to the MTSU 39 , returns for no gain to the MTSU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 2:175% → 5%
Q1 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
95.2%
Jaiden Credle run for 4 yds to the MTSU 43Similar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+5
95.1%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Gamarion Carter for 5 yds to the MTSU 48Similar
Q1 10:48
3RD & 1
OWN 48
-5
94.9%
Middle Tennessee Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MTSU 43Similar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+2
94.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jaiden Credle for 2 yds to the MTSU 45Similar
Q1 9:45
4TH & 4
OWN 45
0
94.8%
Grant Chadwick punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Koby Drake at the MEM 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 4MISSED FG
12 plays · 69 yds · 5:3295% → 93%
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
94.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Demeer Blankumsee for 2 yds to the MEM 16Similar
Q1 9:08
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+4
94.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Brendan Doyle for 4 yds to the MEM 20Similar
Q1 8:33
3RD & 4
OWN 20
+22
94.4%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 22 yds to the MEM 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
94.5%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:53
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+11
94.4%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 11 yds to the MTSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
94.4%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:12
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+4
94.3%
Roc Taylor run for 4 yds to the MTSU 43Similar
Q1 6:35
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+25
94.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 25 yds to the MTSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-3
94.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for a loss of 3 yards to the MTSU 21Similar
Q1 5:26
2ND & 13
OPP 21
0
94.0%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for no gain to the MTSU 21Similar
Q1 4:48
3RD & 13
OPP 21
+4
93.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Mario Anderson Jr. for 4 yds to the MTSU 17Similar
Q1 4:10
4TH & 9
OPP 17
+35
93.4%
Caden Costa 35 Yard Field Goal MissedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 5FUMBLE
4 plays · 80 yds · 1:317% → 7%
Q1 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
93.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Omari Kelly for 7 yds to the MTSU 27Similar
Q1 3:42
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+2
93.0%
Terry Wilkins run for 2 yds to the MTSU 29Similar
Q1 3:12
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
93.0%
Terry Wilkins run for 2 yds to the MTSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+69
92.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Omari Kelly for 69 yds Omari Kelly fumbled, recovered by MEM TEAM return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 36 yds · 2:2793% → 92%
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
92.9%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:19
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+20
92.8%
Brandon Thomas run for 20 yds to the MEM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+18
92.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Marcello Bussey for 18 yds to the MTSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-2
92.9%
Seth Henigan run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTSU 44Similar
Q1 0:21
2ND & 12
OPP 44
0
92.5%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:18
3RD & 12
OPP 44
0
92.3%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:10
4TH & 12
OPP 44
+36
92.0%
(00:10) SLOAN, Joshua punt 36 yards to the MTSU8 downed by MATHENA, Donovan, clock 00:00. PENALTY Before the snap, MEM Illegal Formation MTSU Offsides , Offsetting penalties [FAKE PUNT]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 14:58
4TH & 12
OPP 44
0
91.9%
Joshua Sloan punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 7FUMBLE
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
91.7%
Nicholas Vattiato sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the MTSU 12 Nicholas Vattiato fumbled, recovered by MEM Chandler Martin , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 8TD
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:5893% → 94%
Q2 14:39
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+11
92.5%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 11 yds to the MTSU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
92.4%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTSU 2Similar
Q2 13:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
93.6%
Brandon Thomas run for 2 yds for a TD (Caden Costa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:527% → 7%
Q2 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
93.1%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Cam'ron Lacy for 4 yds to the MTSU 29Similar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
92.8%
Jaiden Credle run for 4 yds to the MTSU 33Similar
Q2 12:26
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
92.7%
Jaiden Credle run for no gain to the MTSU 33Similar
Q2 11:44
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
92.7%
Grant Chadwick punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Koby Drake at the MEM 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 10TD
17 plays · 70 yds · 5:4593% → 94%
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
92.8%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 5 yds to the MEM 35Similar
Q2 11:02
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+7
92.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 7 yds to the MEM 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
93.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 7 yds to the MEM 49Similar
Q2 10:34
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+16
93.0%
Brandon Thomas run for 16 yds to the MTSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
93.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Brandon Thomas for no gain to the MTSU 35Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
93.0%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:26
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+6
92.7%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 6 yds to the MTSU 29Similar
Q2 9:02
4TH & 4
OPP 29
-5
92.4%
Memphis Penalty, False Start (Demeer Blankumsee) to the MTSU 34Similar
Q2 9:01
4TH & 9
OPP 34
+16
92.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Demeer Blankumsee for 16 yds to the MTSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-10
92.6%
(08:36) ANDERSON JR., Mario rush to the left for a gain of 12 yards to the MTSU6 (WILLIAMS, Xavier), clock 08:30. PENALTY MEM Holding on HILL, Xavier enforced 10 yards from the MTSU18 to the MTSU28 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 8:20
1ST & 20
OPP 28
+8
92.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Mario Anderson Jr. for 8 yds to the MTSU 20Similar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 12
OPP 20
0
92.5%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:35
3RD & 12
OPP 20
+10
92.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Koby Drake for 10 yds to the MTSU 10Similar
Q2 6:52
4TH & 2
OPP 10
+5
91.9%
(06:52) ANDERSON JR., Mario rush up the middle for a gain of 1 yard to the MTSU9 (SMITH, Damonte), clock 06:48. PENALTY MTSU Offsides on LOWE, Jayson enforced 5 yards from the MTSU10 to the MTSU5 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
92.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Anthony Landphere for 1 yd to the MTSU 4Similar
Q2 5:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
94.3%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 4 yds for a TD (Caden Costa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 30 yds · 2:586% → 7%
Q2 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.7%
Nicholas Vattiato run for no gain to the MTSU 25Similar
Q2 5:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
93.7%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 4 yds to the MTSU 29Similar
Q2 4:37
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+20
93.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Omari Kelly for 20 yds to the MTSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
93.0%
Terry Wilkins run for 7 yds to the MEM 44Similar
Q2 3:43
2ND & 3
OPP 44
-1
92.6%
Nicholas Vattiato run for a loss of 1 yard to the MEM 45Similar
Q2 3:02
3RD & 4
OPP 45
0
92.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:54
4TH & 4
OPP 45
0
93.0%
Grant Chadwick punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 12PUNT
10 plays · 26 yds · 1:5394% → 94%
Q2 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
94.4%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Mario Anderson Jr. for 1 yd to the MEM 21Similar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+3
94.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Jyaire Shorter for 3 yds to the MEM 24Similar
Q2 1:58
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+11
94.4%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Jyaire Shorter for 11 yds to the MEM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
94.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Mario Anderson Jr. for 5 yds to the MEM 40Similar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+6
94.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Marcello Bussey for 6 yds to the MEM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
95.0%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
95.0%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:57
3RD & 10
OWN 46
0
94.7%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:51
4TH & 10
OWN 46
0
94.4%
Joshua Sloan punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Omari Kelly at the MTSU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · 4 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
93.3%
Jaiden Credle run for 4 yds to the MTSU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 14TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 4:136% → 14%
Q3 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.3%
Nicholas Vattiato run for no gain to the MTSU 25Similar
Q3 14:24
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
94.3%
Jaiden Credle run for 11 yds to the MTSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
93.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Cam'ron Lacy for 7 yds to the MTSU 43Similar
Q3 13:04
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+37
93.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Omari Kelly for 37 yds to the MEM 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
92.8%
Jaiden Credle run for 6 yds to the MEM 14Similar
Q3 11:54
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+4
92.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Terry Wilkins for 4 yds to the MEM 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
92.8%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 5 yds to the MEM 5Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
86.4%
Terry Wilkins run for 5 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 15TD
7 plays · 50 yds · 3:2291% → 95%
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
50
+5
90.6%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 5 yds to the MTSU 45Similar
Q3 9:56
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+13
91.2%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 13 yds to the MTSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
91.2%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 2 yds to the MTSU 30Similar
Q3 8:35
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+16
91.1%
Seth Henigan run for 16 yds to the MTSU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
91.5%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:57
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+13
91.4%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Anthony Landphere for 13 yds to the MTSU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.4%
Brandon Thomas run for 1 yd for a TD (Caden Costa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 3:356% → 6%
Q3 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.9%
Jaiden Credle run for no gain to the MTSU 25Similar
Q3 6:41
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
93.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:38
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+16
94.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Holden Willis for 16 yds to the MTSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
93.2%
Jaiden Credle run for 11 yds to the MEM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
92.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Holden Willis for 6 yds to the MEM 42Similar
Q3 4:59
2ND & 4
OPP 42
-1
92.8%
Jaiden Credle run for a loss of 1 yard to the MEM 43Similar
Q3 4:18
3RD & 5
OPP 43
-7
93.1%
Nicholas Vattiato sacked by Elijah Herring and Matt Hudson for a loss of 7 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 3:37
4TH & 12
50
0
94.4%
Grant Chadwick punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Koby Drake at the MEM 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 17FG
6 plays · 44 yds · 2:0895% → 97%
Q3 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
95.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 11 yds to the MEM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+31
95.4%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 31 yds to the MTSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
96.3%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 2 yds to the MTSU 29Similar
Q3 1:34
2ND & 8
OPP 29
0
96.5%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:30
3RD & 8
OPP 29
0
96.4%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:21
4TH & 8
OPP 29
+47
96.8%
Caden Costa 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 33 yds · 2:174% → 3%
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
96.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Myles Butler for 12 yds to the MTSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
96.5%
Terry Wilkins run for 1 yd to the MTSU 38Similar
Q3 0:14
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+17
96.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Holden Willis for 17 yds Holden Willis fumbled, recovered by MTSU Omari Kelly O. Kelly return for 0 yds for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
96.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+3
96.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Terry Wilkins for 3 yds to the MEM 42Similar
Q4 14:11
3RD & 7
OPP 42
0
96.8%
Middle Tennessee Penalty, Illegal Shift (TEAM) declinedSimilar
Q4 14:02
4TH & 7
OPP 42
0
96.9%
Grant Chadwick punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Koby Drake at the MEM 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 19PUNT
10 plays · 42 yds · 5:1497% → 98%
Q4 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
97.3%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 2 yds to the MEM 13Similar
Q4 13:16
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+13
97.4%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Marcello Bussey for 13 yds to the MEM 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
97.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Mario Anderson Jr. for 2 yds to the MEM 28Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+4
97.6%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 4 yds to the MEM 32Similar
Q4 11:20
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+23
97.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Mario Anderson Jr. for 23 yds to the MTSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
97.7%
Demeer Blankumsee run for 1 yd to the MTSU 44Similar
Q4 9:46
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+2
97.8%
Brandon Thomas run for 2 yds to the MTSU 42Similar
Q4 9:00
3RD & 7
OPP 42
0
97.7%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:55
4TH & 7
OPP 42
-5
97.5%
(08:55) SLOAN, Joshua punt 35 yards to the MTSU7, fair catch by KELLY, Omari, clock 08:50. PENALTY Before the snap, MEM Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the MTSU42 to the MTSU47. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 8:45
4TH & 12
OPP 47
0
97.5%
Joshua Sloan punt for 40 yds, downed at the MTSU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 20PUNT
11 plays · 38 yds · 3:062% → 2%
Q4 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
97.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:31
2ND & 10
OWN 7
-2
97.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Holden Willis for a loss of 2 yards to the MTSU 5Similar
Q4 7:50
3RD & 12
OWN 5
+13
97.7%
(07:50) VATTIATO, Nicholas pass to the left incomplete intended for KELLY, Omari thrown to the MTSU20, clock 07:49. PENALTY MEM Pass Interference on RA-EL, Tahj enforced at the spot of the foul for 13 yards to the MTSU18 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
97.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jaiden Credle for 2 yds to the MTSU 20Similar
Q4 7:24
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+4
97.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Omari Kelly for 4 yds to the MTSU 24Similar
Q4 6:45
3RD & 4
OWN 24
+37
97.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Omari Kelly for 37 yds to the MEM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
97.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Terry Wilkins for 7 yds to the MEM 32Similar
Q4 5:47
2ND & 3
OPP 32
0
97.1%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:46
3RD & 3
OPP 32
-15
97.4%
Middle Tennessee Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (TEAM) to the MEM 47Similar
Q4 5:43
3RD & 18
OPP 47
-8
97.8%
Nicholas Vattiato sacked by Chandler Martin for a loss of 8 yards to the MTSU 45Similar
Q4 5:31
4TH & 26
OWN 45
0
97.9%
Grant Chadwick punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Koby Drake at the MEM 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 21PUNT
10 plays · 31 yds · 3:3898% → 99%
Q4 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
98.0%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 5 yds to the MEM 18Similar
Q4 4:39
2ND & 5
OWN 18
+12
98.1%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 12 yds to the MEM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
98.2%
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 3 yds to the MEM 33Similar
Q4 3:08
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+7
98.4%
Brandon Thomas run for 7 yds to the MEM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
98.5%
Ja'Koby Banks run for 4 yds to the MEM 44Similar
Q4 1:59
2ND & 6
OWN 44
-3
98.8%
Ja'Koby Banks run for a loss of 3 yards to the MEM 41Similar
Q4 1:50
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+3
98.8%
Ja'Koby Banks run for 3 yds to the MEM 44Similar
Q4 1:45
4TH & 6
OWN 44
0
99.4%
Joshua Sloan punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Omari Kelly at the MTSU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 22DOWNS
7 plays · 11 yds · 1:002% → 2%
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
98.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Terry Wilkins for 1 yd to the MTSU 15Similar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+25
98.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Holden Willis for 25 yds to the MTSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
98.1%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:51
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
98.1%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:48
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
98.1%
Nicholas Vattiato run for no gain to the MTSU 40Similar
Q4 0:40
4TH & 10
OWN 40
-15
98.1%
Nicholas Vattiato sacked by Elijah Herring for a loss of 15 yards to the MTSU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 23END OF GAME
1 play · -3 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-3
99.4%
(00:35) [NHSG] Kneel down by HENIGAN, Seth at MTSU28 (team loss of 3), clock 00:27.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:45
Terry Wilkins run for 5 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK)
-6.3
KEY PLAY · Q3 10:35
Mario Anderson Jr. run for 5 yds to the MTSU 45
+4.2
TD · Q3 7:13
Brandon Thomas run for 1 yd for a TD (Caden Costa KICK)
+3.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com