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TNTC

Tennessee Tech 25 at Middle Tennessee 32

MTSU
2024 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2024 · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
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Win probability · MTSU
modelMTSU aheadTNTC aheadconfidence bandkey playMTSU scoreTNTC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDSAFETYFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:48 · Grant Chadwick punt for 33 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+24.5+12.30−12.3−24.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 137Home team on offense+17.5Pregame prior+1.4Garbage-time factor+11.9Score differential+1.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.7Time remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:43: Jaiden Credle run for 10 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK) — MTSU win probability +9.1 pts (now 90%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 1:46: Jordyn Potts pass complete to Ashton Maples for 33 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — TNTC win probability +10.8 pts (now 20%) (top driver: TNTC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 4:38: Jordyn Potts pass complete to Ashton Maples for 15 yds for a TD (Hayden Olsen KICK) — TNTC win probability +20.0 pts (now 28%) (top driver: TNTC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:06: Jordyn Potts pass complete to Jordan Yates for 13 yds for a TD (Hayden Olsen KICK) — TNTC win probability +54.2 pts (now 80%) (top driver: TNTC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:16: Frank Peasant run for 30 yds for a TD (Nicholas Vattiato pass to Kellen Stewart for Two-Point Conversion) — MTSU win probability +40.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MTSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7TNTC made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 3:16TNTC 4th & 8 at MTSU 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.9%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    43.8%−0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    43.7%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:09MTSU 4th & 3 at TNTC 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    57.2%−0.3
    70% to make
    Punt
    54.5%−3.0
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:29TNTC 4th & 9 at TNTC 26, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.6%−1.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:51MTSU 4th & 2 at TNTC 21, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    69.1%−1.0
    74% to make
    Punt
    62.5%−7.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:38TNTC 4th & 8 at MTSU 48, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.8%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:22TNTC 4th & 2 at MTSU 20, down 19
    Close callWent for it · 20.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.8%−0.7
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    20.4%
    75% to make
    Punt
    13.9%−6.6
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:57TNTC 4th & 8 at TNTC 21, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.7%−1.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:24TNTC 4th & 3 at MTSU 27, down 16
    Close callKicked a field goal · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.0%−0.6
    62% to make
    Punt
    15.9%−4.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:45MTSU 4th & 2 at TNTC 31, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    87.5%−1.5
    54% to make
    Punt
    86.2%−2.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:12TNTC 4th & 4 at MTSU 46, down 16
    Close callPunted · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    13.5%−2.0
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    14.9%−0.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:41MTSU 4th & 6 at MTSU 20, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.4%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.8%
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:04MTSU 4th & 1 at TNTC 16, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 87.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.9%−1.8
    81% to make
    Punt
    80.7%−7.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:48MTSU 4th & 8 at MTSU 24, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.2%−2.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:26MTSU 4th & 5 at MTSU 44, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    19.3%−8.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MTSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4TNTC made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 6:56MTSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:55MTSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:43MTSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:46TNTC Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    20.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    20.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 4:38TNTC Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:06TNTC Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.7%−4.4
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:16MTSU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    81.7%−1.4
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    83.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MTSUDrive 1TD
15 plays · 72 yds · 7:5171% → 73%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
71.2%
Frank Peasant run for no gain to the MTSU 28Similar
Q1 14:11
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+4
71.1%
Jaiden Credle run for 4 yds to the MTSU 32Similar
Q1 13:32
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+25
71.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Holden Willis for 25 yds to the TNTC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
71.2%
Jaiden Credle run for 6 yds to the TNTC 37Similar
Q1 12:06
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+3
71.1%
Jaiden Credle run for 3 yds to the TNTC 34Similar
Q1 11:45
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+2
71.1%
Jaiden Credle run for 2 yds to the TNTC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-3
71.1%
Jekail Middlebrook run for a loss of 3 yards to the TNTC 35Similar
Q1 10:32
2ND & 13
OPP 35
0
70.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:17
3RD & 13
OPP 35
+15
70.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Myles Butler for 15 yds to the TNTC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
71.1%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:31
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+5
71.1%
Frank Peasant run for 5 yds to the TNTC 15Similar
Q1 8:49
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+8
70.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jacob Coleman for 8 yds to the TNTC 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
70.8%
Terry Wilkins run for 1 yd to the TNTC 6Similar
Q1 7:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
70.7%
Terry Wilkins run for 3 yds to the TNTC 3Similar
Q1 6:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
72.9%
Frank Peasant run for 3 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNTCDrive 2DOWNS
10 plays · 5 yds · 3:3628% → 27%
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
72.4%
Jalen Mitchell run for 3 yds to the TNTC 28Similar
Q1 6:18
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
72.3%
Dylan Laible pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:15
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+18
72.6%
Jalen Mitchell run for 18 yds to the TNTC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-3
71.9%
Jalen Mitchell run for a loss of 3 yards to the TNTC 43Similar
Q1 5:09
2ND & 13
OWN 43
0
72.5%
Dylan Laible pass complete to Jay Parker for no gain to the TNTC 43Similar
Q1 4:35
3RD & 13
OWN 43
+18
72.8%
Dylan Laible pass complete to Tremel Jones for 18 yds to the MTSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
71.7%
Jalen Mitchell run for 2 yds to the MTSU 37Similar
Q1 3:26
2ND & 8
OPP 37
0
71.8%
Dylan Laible pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:18
3RD & 8
OPP 37
0
71.9%
Dylan Laible pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:16
4TH & 8
OPP 37
-42
72.7%
Dylan Laible pass intercepted John Howse IV return for 42 yds to the TNTC 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 3TD
7 plays · 30 yds · 3:1074% → 79%
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
74.0%
Jaiden Credle run for 1 yd to the TNTC 29Similar
Q1 2:26
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+6
73.9%
Frank Peasant run for 6 yds to the TNTC 23Similar
Q1 1:47
3RD & 3
OPP 23
0
73.6%
Frank Peasant run for no gain to the TNTC 23Similar
Q1 1:09
4TH & 3
OPP 23
+10
73.1%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Gamarion Carter for 10 yds to the TNTC 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
74.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:20
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+6
74.3%
Terry Wilkins run for 6 yds to the TNTC 7Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 4
OPP 7
+7
79.1%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Myles Butler for 7 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNTCDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:5423% → 20%
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
77.1%
Dylan Laible pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-7
77.2%
Dylan Laible sacked by James Gillespie for a loss of 7 yards to the TNTC 18Similar
Q2 14:15
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+8
77.6%
Jalen Mitchell run for 8 yds to the TNTC 26Similar
Q2 13:29
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
78.2%
Spencer Ashby punt for 33 ydsSimilar
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
79.9%
(13:24) VATTIATO, Nicholas pass short to the left complete for 4 yards to BUTLER, Myles to the MTS45 (MOSS, Ty;GARCIA, Angel), clock 13:20. PENALTY TTU Offsides on CRAWFORD, A.J. enforced 5 yards from the MTS41 to the MTS46 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:58
1ST & 5
OWN 46
-8
80.2%
(12:58) PEASANT, Frank rush up the middle for a gain of 11 yards to the TTU43 (MOSS, Ty), clock 12:56. PENALTY MTS Holding on CLAYTON, Zach enforced 8 yards from the MTS46 to the MTS38 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 5TD
11 plays · 59 yds · 3:5180% → 90%
Q2 12:34
1ST & 13
OWN 38
0
80.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 13
OWN 38
+12
80.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Myles Butler for 12 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:56
3RD & 1
50
+4
80.2%
Jekail Middlebrook run for 4 yds to the TNTC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
81.0%
Jekail Middlebrook run for 2 yds to the TNTC 44Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 8
OPP 44
0
81.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:39
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+15
80.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Gamarion Carter for 15 yds to the TNTC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
81.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:49
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+9
81.5%
Jaiden Credle run for 9 yds to the TNTC 20Similar
Q2 9:31
3RD & 1
OPP 20
-1
81.3%
Jaiden Credle run for a loss of 1 yard to the TNTC 21Similar
Q2 8:51
4TH & 2
OPP 21
0
81.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
90.1%
Jaiden Credle run for 10 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNTCDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 3:5511% → 10%
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
88.6%
Jalen Mitchell run for no gain to the TNTC 26Similar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+9
88.6%
Jordyn Potts pass complete to Kyron Cumby for 9 yds to the TNTC 35Similar
Q2 7:20
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+2
88.4%
Jalen Mitchell run for 2 yds to the TNTC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
88.6%
Jordyn Potts pass complete to D.J. Linkins for 7 yds to the TNTC 44Similar
Q2 6:07
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+6
88.6%
Jordyn Potts pass complete to Tremel Jones for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
50
0
88.8%
Jordyn Potts pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:28
2ND & 10
50
0
89.3%
Jordyn Potts pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:18
3RD & 10
50
+2
89.5%
Jordyn Potts pass complete to Obie Sanni for 2 yds to the MTSU 48Similar
Q2 4:38
4TH & 8
OPP 48
0
89.9%
Spencer Ashby punt for 47 yds, downed at the MTSU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 7SF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
86.5%
Team SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNTCDrive 8FG
18 plays · 46 yds · 4:2013% → 17%
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
86.6%
Jalen Mitchell run for a loss of 2 yards to the TNTC 24Similar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 12
OWN 24
+12
87.1%
Jordyn Potts pass complete to Tyler Nix for 12 yds to the TNTC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
86.6%
Jordyn Potts run for 6 yds to the TNTC 42Similar
Q2 2:23
2ND & 4
OWN 42
-10
86.5%
(02:23) MITCHELL, Jalen rush up the middle for no gain to the TTU42 (WILLIAMS, Alex), clock 02:21. PENALTY TTU Illegal Block in the Back on DIXON, J.D. enforced 10 yards from the TTU42 to the TTU32 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:03
2ND & 14
OWN 32
0
87.2%
Jordyn Potts pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:58
3RD & 14
OWN 32
+22
87.3%
Jordyn Potts pass complete to Hunter Barnhart for 22 yds to the MTSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
84.7%
Jordyn Potts pass complete to Jay Parker for a loss of 5 yards to the TNTC 49Similar
Q2 1:42
2ND & 15
OWN 49
+23
86.9%
Jordyn Potts pass complete to D.J. Linkins for 23 yds to the MTSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
84.0%
Jordyn Potts pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
84.5%
Jordyn Potts pass complete to D.J. Linkins for no gain to the MTSU 28Similar
Q2 0:29
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+8
85.6%
Jordyn Potts pass complete to Tremel Jones for 8 yds to the MTSU 20Similar
Q2 0:22
4TH & 2
OPP 20
+7
84.8%
Jordyn Potts pass complete to Jalen Mitchell for 7 yds to the MTSU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
84.1%
Jordyn Potts pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 10
OPP 13
-15
84.2%
Tennessee Tech Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jalen Mitchell) to the MTSU 28Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 25
OPP 28
+46
82.9%
Hayden Olsen 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNTCDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5415% → 14%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
84.8%
Jalen Mitchell run for 2 yds to the TNTC 21Similar
Q3 14:09
2ND & 8
OWN 21
0
85.1%
Jordyn Potts pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:07
3RD & 8
OWN 21
0
85.4%
Jordyn Potts pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:57
4TH & 8
OWN 21
0
85.8%
Spencer Ashby punt for 45 yds , Omari Kelly returns for no gain to the MTSU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 10INT
3 plays · -6 yds · 1:0387% → 87%
Q3 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
86.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Omari Kelly for 4 yds to the MTSU 38Similar
Q3 13:13
2ND & 6
OWN 38
-10
87.5%
(13:13) PEASANT, Frank rush up the middle for a gain of 7 yards to the MTS45 (COUTRAS, Tim), clock 13:11. PENALTY MTS Holding on COLEMAN, Jacob enforced 10 yards from the MTS38 to the MTS28 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:48
2ND & 16
OWN 28
-10
87.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass intercepted Caldra Williford return for 10 yds to the MTSU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNTCDrive 11MISSED FG
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1417% → 15%
Q3 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-2
83.2%
Jordyn Potts pass complete to Reece Perkins for a loss of 2 yards to the MTSU 36Similar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 12
OPP 36
+9
85.0%
Jordyn Potts pass complete to D.J. Linkins for 9 yds to the MTSU 27Similar
Q3 11:29
3RD & 3
OPP 27
0
84.3%
Jordyn Potts pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:24
4TH & 3
OPP 27
+44
85.1%
Hayden Olsen 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 12DOWNS
8 plays · 42 yds · 4:3488% → 92%
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
87.7%
Jekail Middlebrook run for 5 yds to the MTSU 32Similar
Q3 10:36
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+2
88.6%
Jaiden Credle run for 2 yds to the MTSU 34Similar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+15
88.5%
Tennessee Tech Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Jeremiah Sandiford) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
50
+11
89.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jaiden Credle for 11 yds to the TNTC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-7
90.0%
Nicholas Vattiato sacked by Aaron Swafford for a loss of 7 yards to the TNTC 46Similar
Q3 8:22
2ND & 17
OPP 46
+6
89.9%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 6 yds to the TNTC 40Similar
Q3 7:35
3RD & 11
OPP 40
+9
91.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Myles Butler for 9 yds to the TNTC 31Similar
Q3 6:45
4TH & 2
OPP 31
0
91.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNTCDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 23 yds · 1:3012% → 11%
Q3 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+17
87.9%
Jalen Mitchell run for 17 yds to the TNTC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
87.7%
Jordyn Potts pass complete to Tremel Jones for 6 yds to the MTSU 46Similar
Q3 5:23
2ND & 4
OPP 46
0
87.1%
Jordyn Potts pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:16
3RD & 4
OPP 46
0
88.0%
Jordyn Potts pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:12
4TH & 4
OPP 46
0
88.6%
Spencer Ashby punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Omari Kelly at the MTSU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2392% → 92%
Q3 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
92.4%
Jekail Middlebrook run for no gain to the MTSU 16Similar
Q3 4:28
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+4
92.5%
Jekail Middlebrook run for 4 yds to the MTSU 20Similar
Q3 3:45
3RD & 6
OWN 20
0
92.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:41
4TH & 6
OWN 20
0
92.1%
Grant Chadwick punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jordan Yates at the TNTC 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNTCDrive 15TD
4 plays · 58 yds · 1:4310% → 20%
Q3 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
90.3%
Torin Baker run for 7 yds to the TNTC 49Similar
Q3 3:13
2ND & 3
OWN 49
0
89.8%
Torin Baker run for no gain to the TNTC 49Similar
Q3 2:30
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+18
90.7%
Jordyn Potts pass complete to Jay Parker for 18 yds to the MTSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
79.9%
Jordyn Potts pass complete to Ashton Maples for 33 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 16FG
15 plays · 59 yds · 7:3985% → 94%
Q3 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
85.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jekail Middlebrook for 10 yds to the MTSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
85.2%
Middle Tennessee Penalty, False Start (Jacob Coleman) to the MTSU 30Similar
Q3 1:12
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+8
85.2%
Terry Wilkins run for 8 yds to the MTSU 38Similar
Q3 0:33
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+8
86.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Gamarion Carter for 8 yds to the MTSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
87.2%
Frank Peasant run for 1 yd to the MTSU 47Similar
Q4 14:26
2ND & 9
OWN 47
-10
86.7%
(14:26) VATTIATO, Nicholas pass short to the right complete for 4 yards to PEASANT, Frank caught at the MTS49 and advanced to the TTU49 (SWAFFORD, Aaron), clock 14:24. PENALTY MTS Holding on GUEVARA, Mateo enforced 10 yards from the MTS47 to the MTS37 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 19
OWN 37
+11
85.8%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jekail Middlebrook for 11 yds to the MTSU 48Similar
Q4 13:27
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+15
86.5%
(13:27) VATTIATO, Nicholas pass short to the right intercepted by GAINES, Theron at the MTS49 intended for STEWART, Kellen. Gaines return for 49 yards to the MTS0; QB hurried by GAINES, Theron, TOUCHDOWN TTU, score nullified by penalty, clock 13:21 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY TTU Targeting on GAINES, Theron enforced 15 yards from the MTS48 to the TTU37 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
87.7%
Frank Peasant run for no gain to the TNTC 37Similar
Q4 12:39
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+5
88.1%
Frank Peasant run for 5 yds to the TNTC 32Similar
Q4 11:49
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+7
88.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Frank Peasant for 7 yds to the TNTC 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
88.7%
Jaiden Credle run for a loss of 1 yard to the TNTC 26Similar
Q4 10:29
2ND & 11
OPP 26
+3
88.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Omari Kelly for 3 yds to the TNTC 23Similar
Q4 9:54
3RD & 8
OPP 23
+7
88.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jaiden Credle for 7 yds to the TNTC 16Similar
Q4 9:04
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+33
94.1%
Zeke Rankin 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNTCDrive 17TD
8 plays · 82 yds · 4:137% → 28%
Q4 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
92.6%
Jordyn Potts pass complete to Hunter Barnhart for 9 yds to the TNTC 27Similar
Q4 8:08
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+5
92.0%
Jalen Mitchell run for 5 yds to the TNTC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
92.5%
Middle Tennessee Penalty, Personal Foul (Brendon Harris) to the MTSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
92.2%
Kyron Cumby run for 6 yds to the MTSU 35Similar
Q4 6:36
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+9
91.4%
Jordyn Potts pass complete to Ashton Maples for 9 yds to the MTSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+12
92.3%
Jordyn Potts pass complete to Torin Baker for 12 yds to the MTSU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
92.4%
Jordyn Potts pass complete to J.D. Dixon for a loss of 1 yard to the MTSU 15Similar
Q4 4:38
2ND & 11
OPP 15
+15
72.4%
Jordyn Potts pass complete to Ashton Maples for 15 yds for a TD (Hayden Olsen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5088% → 88%
Q4 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
88.4%
Middle Tennessee Penalty, False Start (Morgan Scott) to the MTSU 17Similar
Q4 4:34
1ST & 15
OWN 17
0
88.8%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:27
2ND & 15
OWN 17
0
88.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:26
3RD & 15
OWN 17
+7
88.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Holden Willis for 7 yds to the MTSU 24Similar
Q4 3:48
4TH & 8
OWN 24
0
87.8%
Grant Chadwick punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNTCDrive 19TD
7 plays · 57 yds · 2:3423% → 80%
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
77.4%
Kyron Cumby run for 6 yds to the TNTC 49Similar
Q4 3:09
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+7
75.1%
Kyron Cumby run for 7 yds to the MTSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+13
76.1%
Jordyn Potts pass complete to D.J. Linkins for 13 yds to the MTSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
72.0%
Obie Sanni run for 2 yds to the MTSU 29Similar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+3
70.0%
Jordyn Potts pass complete to D'Arious Reed for 3 yds to the MTSU 26Similar
Q4 1:10
3RD & 5
OPP 26
+13
74.3%
(01:10) POTTS, Jordyn pass short to the right incomplete intended for MAPLES, Ashton broken up by DOUGLAS, Jared at the MTS21, clock 01:11. PENALTY MTS Personal Foul on WOODS, Shakai enforced half the distance from the goal, 13 yards from the MTS26 to the MTS13 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
20.1%
Jordyn Potts pass complete to Jordan Yates for 13 yds for a TD (Hayden Olsen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 20TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 0:3944% → 94%
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
43.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
42.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Omari Kelly for 14 yds to the MTSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
44.0%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 5 yds to the MTSU 44Similar
Q4 0:36
2ND & 5
OWN 44
0
46.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:32
3RD & 5
OWN 44
0
43.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:26
4TH & 5
OWN 44
+26
39.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Omari Kelly for 26 yds to the TNTC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
94.3%
Frank Peasant run for 30 yds for a TD (Nicholas Vattiato pass to Kellen Stewart for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TNTCDrive 21END OF GAME
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0713% → 8%
Q4 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
87.5%
Jordyn Potts sacked by Brandon Buckner for a loss of 12 yards to the TNTC 13Similar
Q4 0:04
2ND & 22
OWN 13
0
90.8%
Jordyn Potts pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:01
3RD & 22
OWN 13
+9
91.7%
Jordyn Potts pass complete to Jalen Mitchell for 9 yds to the TNTC 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:06
Jordyn Potts pass complete to Jordan Yates for 13 yds for a TD (Hayden Olsen KICK)
-54.2
TD · Q4 0:16
Frank Peasant run for 30 yds for a TD (Nicholas Vattiato pass to Kellen Stewart for Two-Point Conversion)
+40.2
TD · Q4 4:38
Jordyn Potts pass complete to Ashton Maples for 15 yds for a TD (Hayden Olsen KICK)
-20
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com