2024 · Week 12 · Nov 16, 2024 · Fifth Third Stadium
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Win probability · KENN
modelKENN aheadSHSU aheadconfidence bandkey playKENN scoreSHSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
OT 0:00 · Hunter Watson run for 10 yds for a TD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 3:01: Michael Benefield run for 1 yd for a TD (Austin Welch KICK) — KENN win probability +19.2 pts (now 44%) (top driver: KENN has the ball).
- TD · Q4 1:54: Jay Ducker run for 17 yds for a TD (Christian Pavon KICK) — SHSU win probability +31.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: SHSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 0:25: Davis Bryson pass complete to Carson Kent for 9 yds for a TD (Austin Welch KICK) — KENN win probability +42.7 pts (now 64%) (top driver: KENN has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · OT 0:00: Jay Ducker run for 15 yds to the KENN 10 for a 1ST down — SHSU win probability +18.5 pts (now 59%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
- TD · OT 0:00: Hunter Watson run for 10 yds for a TD — SHSU win probability +31.3 pts (now 90%) (top driver: SHSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
KENN made the numbers' call on 5 of 9SHSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 8
- Q1 12:43KENN 4th & 17 at KENN 20, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 11.2% before the snapGo for it11.1%−0.213% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.2%average punt
- Q1 11:22SHSU 4th & 9 at SHSU 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 88.1% before the snapGo for it88.0%−0.131% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call88.2%average punt
- Q1 9:26SHSU 4th & 5 at KENN 47, tiedClose callPunted · 87.4% before the snapGo for it87.4%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call87.4%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 8:16KENN 4th & 1 at KENN 29, tiedClose callPunted · 13.1% before the snapGo for it13.2%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.1%−0.1average punt
- Q1 5:44SHSU 4th & 3 at KENN 41, tiedClose callPunted · 85.7% before the snapGo for it85.8%52% to convertField goal85.6%−0.232% to makePuntTheir call85.6%−0.2average punt
- Q2 10:17KENN 4th & 4 at SHSU 7, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 21.6% before the snapGo for it21.5%41% to convertField goalTheir call21.3%−0.291% to makePunt19.3%−2.2average punt
- Q2 5:40SHSU 4th & 8 at KENN 39, down 3Close callPunted · 74.2% before the snapGo for it74.1%34% to convertField goal73.6%−0.536% to makePuntTheir call73.6%−0.4average punt
- Q2 4:11KENN 4th & 8 at KENN 8, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.3% before the snapGo for it24.9%−1.231% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call26.2%average punt
- Q2 1:56SHSU 4th & 12 at KENN 12, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.8% before the snapGo for it68.7%−1.319% to convertField goalTheir call70.1%86% to makePunt64.6%−5.5average punt
- Q2 0:37KENN 4th & 11 at SHSU 48, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 27.4% before the snapGo for it27.0%−0.226% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call27.2%average punt
- Q3 7:28KENN 4th & 1 at KENN 34, down 7Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 19.8% before the snapGo for it21.0%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.8%−1.2average punt
- Q3 4:49SHSU 4th & 10 at SHSU 31, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.8% before the snapGo for it78.9%−2.629% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call81.5%average punt
- Q3 3:45KENN 4th & 6 at KENN 28, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.7% before the snapGo for it20.0%−0.839% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.8%average punt
- Q3 1:18SHSU 4th & 3 at SHSU 25, tiedClose callPunted · 59.8% before the snapGo for it61.3%51% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call61.0%−0.3average punt
- Q4 13:25KENN 4th & 5 at SHSU 46, tiedClose callPunted · 45.2% before the snapGo for it46.4%41% to convertField goal42.2%−4.223% to makePuntTheir call45.7%−0.7average punt
- Q4 8:13SHSU 4th & 3 at SHSU 42, tiedNumbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 55.5% before the snapGo for it56.9%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.6%−1.3average punt
- Q4 6:00KENN 4th & 3 at KENN 27, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 48.2% before the snapGo for it48.6%−0.352% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call48.9%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KENN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2SHSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
- Q3 9:27SHSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call79.0%97% to makeGo for two78.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:01KENN Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call36.1%97% to makeGo for two35.9%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 1:54SHSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call84.2%−0.497% to makeGo for two84.7%45% to convert
- Q4 0:25KENN Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call49.0%97% to makeGo for two42.8%−6.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartKENNDrive 1PUNT4 plays · -7 yds · 2:059% → 9%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
8.7%
Davis Bryson pass complete to Christian Moss for no gain to the KENN 27Similar
Q1 13:25
3RD & 6
OWN 31
-11
9.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 11 yards to the KENN 20 fumbled, recovered by KENN Blake Bohannon B. Bohannon return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q1 12:43
4TH & 17
OWN 20
0
9.4%
Jacob Ulrich punt for 50 yds , Emon Allen returns for no gain to the SHSU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 1:5291% → 90%
KENNDrive 3INT2 plays · 5 yds · 0:2910% → 10%
SHSUDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:4290% → 89%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3911% → 11%
Q1 9:55
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+4
10.6%
Davis Bryson pass complete to Tykeem Wallace for 4 yds to the KENN 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 6PUNT9 plays · 41 yds · 2:3289% → 88%
Q1 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
11.3%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Noah Smith for 1 yd to the SHSU 19Similar
Q1 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
11.2%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Noah Smith for 6 yds to the SHSU 43Similar
Q1 8:16
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+3
11.1%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Jay Ducker for 3 yds to the KENN 41Similar
Q1 5:44
4TH & 3
OPP 41
0
12.4%
Jadon Cardell punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Jayven Williams at the KENN 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 7FG14 plays · 83 yds · 7:5214% → 20%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+12
17.0%
Davis Bryson pass complete to Preston Daniels for 12 yds to the SHSU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 8PUNT10 plays · 45 yds · 4:3180% → 76%
Q2 10:11
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+11
19.6%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Michael Phoenix II for 11 yds to the SHSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
19.1%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Michael Phoenix II for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 10:11
2ND & 6
50
+9
18.9%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Qua'Vez Humphreys for 9 yds to the KENN 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
18.9%
Hunter Watson pass complete to DJ McKinney for 3 yds to the KENN 38Similar
Q2 10:11
2ND & 7
OPP 38
-1
18.9%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Ife Adeyi for a loss of 1 yard to the KENN 39Similar
Q2 5:40
4TH & 8
OPP 39
0
23.7%
Jadon Cardell punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Jayven Williams at the KENN 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2924% → 24%
Q2 4:11
4TH & 8
OWN 8
0
24.2%
Jacob Ulrich punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Ife Adeyi at the SHSU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 10FG6 plays · 41 yds · 2:1576% → 77%
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+44
23.8%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Qua'Vez Humphreys for 44 yds to the KENN 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
24.9%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Ife Adeyi for 2 yds to the KENN 7Similar
Q2 2:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
25.7%
Hunter Watson sacked by Donelius Johnson for a loss of 5 yards to the KENN 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 11PUNT9 plays · 34 yds · 1:1226% → 25%
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+17
26.1%
Davis Bryson pass complete to Blake Bohannon for 17 yds to the KENN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
26.5%
Davis Bryson pass complete to Tykeem Wallace for 6 yds to the KENN 41Similar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+12
28.0%
Davis Bryson pass complete to Blake Bohannon for 12 yds to the SHSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-1
28.4%
Davis Bryson sacked by Denver Warren for a loss of 1 yard to the SHSU 48Similar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 11
OPP 48
0
26.6%
Kennesaw State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Yards) to the SHSU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 12END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 13TD13 plays · 75 yds · 5:2676% → 84%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
24.3%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Ife Adeyi for 7 yds to the SHSU 32Similar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
23.6%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Ife Adeyi for 6 yds to the SHSU 42Similar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
22.4%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Elijah Sohn for 6 yds to the KENN 47Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+7
21.8%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Ife Adeyi for 7 yds to the KENN 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
22.1%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Simeon Evans for 6 yds to the KENN 34Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+4
21.6%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Michael Phoenix II for 4 yds to the KENN 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5918% → 18%
Q3 7:28
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
17.8%
Jacob Ulrich punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Ife Adeyi at the SHSU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 15PUNT7 plays · 10 yds · 2:3983% → 82%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 16PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0419% → 18%
Q3 3:45
4TH & 6
OWN 28
+56
17.7%
Jacob Ulrich punt for 56 yds , Ife Adeyi returns for a loss of 1 yard to the SHSU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 17INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-7
17.4%
Hunter Watson pass intercepted JeRico Washington Jr. return for 7 yds to the SHSU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 18TD2 plays · 7 yds · 0:3824% → 44%
SHSUDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3866% → 62%
Q3 1:18
4TH & 3
OWN 25
+6
38.3%
Jadon Cardell punt for 44 yds , Gabriel Benyard returns for 6 yds to the KENN 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 20PUNT7 plays · 17 yds · 2:5341% → 44%
SHSUDrive 21PUNT9 plays · 38 yds · 5:1261% → 58%
KENNDrive 22PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 2:1348% → 47%
Q4 8:13
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+7
47.7%
Davis Bryson pass complete to Christian Moss for 7 yds to the KENN 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 23TD10 plays · 70 yds · 4:0657% → 96%
Q4 6:00
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-1
44.0%
Hunter Watson sacked by Tylon Dunlap for a loss of 1 yard to the SHSU 29Similar
Q4 6:00
3RD & 11
OWN 29
+13
46.0%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Simeon Evans for 13 yds to the SHSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-10
39.5%
MCKINNEY, DJ rush to the left for a gain of 2 yards to the SHSU44 (PORTER, Sidney). PENALTY SHSU Holding on DIETERICH, Kolt enforced 10 yards from the SHSU42 to the SHSU32 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 20
OWN 32
+2
43.8%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Simeon Evans for 2 yds to the SHSU 34Similar
Q4 6:00
3RD & 15
OWN 37
+15
45.4%
Kennesaw State Penalty, Targeting on REDDING, Markell enforced (Markell Redding) to the KENN 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-5
35.0%
EVANS, Simeon rush to the right for a gain of 9 yards to the KSU7 (JOHNSON, Donelius). PENALTY Before the snap, SHSU Illegal Motion on EVANS, Simeon enforced 5 yards from the KSU16 to the KSU21. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 24TD13 plays · 71 yds · 1:2116% → 64%
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+18
15.8%
Davis Bryson pass complete to Blake Bohannon for 18 yds to the KENN 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+17
18.2%
Davis Bryson pass complete to Christian Moss for 17 yds to the SHSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-10
20.6%
(01:27) BRYSON, Davis pass deep to the left incomplete intended for BOHANNON, Blake thrown to the SHSU19. PENALTY KSU Holding on KETTELS, Jacob enforced 10 yards from the SHSU36 to the SHSU46 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 1:27
2ND & 20
OPP 46
+15
17.3%
BRYSON, Davis pass to the right incomplete intended for WALLACE, Tykeem thrown to the SHSU36. PENALTY SHSU Roughing the Passer on HAYES, Briceon enforced 15 yards from the SHSU46 to the SHSU31 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 1:27
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+10
26.0%
Davis Bryson pass complete to Qua Ashley for 10 yds to the SHSU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
26.0%
Davis Bryson pass complete to Qua Ashley for 4 yds to the SHSU 13Similar
Q4 1:27
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+6
26.0%
Davis Bryson pass complete to Qua Ashley for 6 yds to the SHSU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
64.0%
Davis Bryson pass complete to Carson Kent for 9 yds for a TD (Austin Welch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 25END OF GAME5 plays · 25 yds · 0:2551% → 54%
Q4 0:25
2ND & 10
50
0
43.2%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Jay Ducker for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 26MISSED FG1 play · 7 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:25
Davis Bryson pass complete to Carson Kent for 9 yds for a TD (Austin Welch KICK)
+42.7
TD · OT 0:00
Hunter Watson run for 10 yds for a TD
-31.3
TD · Q4 1:54
Jay Ducker run for 17 yds for a TD (Christian Pavon KICK)
-31.2