2024 · Week 11 · Nov 9, 2024 · Sun Bowl
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Win probability · UTEP
modelUTEP aheadKENN aheadconfidence bandkey playUTEP scoreKENN score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:16 · Jacob Ulrich punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Trey Goodman at the UTEP 10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseTime remainingScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsDefense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 0:25: Michael Benefield 5 Yd Run (Davis Bryson Pass to Carson Kent for Two-Point Conversion) — KENN win probability +31.8 pts (now 52%) (top driver: KENN has the ball).
- TD · Q4 2:43: Davis Bryson 14 Yd Run (Austin Welch Kick) — UTEP win probability +18.6 pts (now 39%) (top driver: KENN has the ball).
- TD · OT 0:00: Qua Ashley 25 Yd pass from Davis Bryson (Austin Welch Kick) — KENN win probability +40.5 pts (now 76%) (top driver: KENN has the ball).
- TD · OT 0:00: Kenny Odom 2 Yd pass from Skyler Locklear (Buzz Flabiano Kick) — UTEP win probability +36.9 pts (now 66%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
- TD · OT2 0:00: Kenny Odom 16 Yd pass from Skyler Locklear (Skyler Locklear Pass to Jevon Jackson for Two-Point Conversion) — UTEP win probability +23.6 pts (now 87%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UTEP made the numbers' call on 8 of 10KENN made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
- Q1 12:19UTEP 4th & 7 at UTEP 44, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 63.1% before the snapGo for it63.1%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call63.2%average punt
- Q1 10:55KENN 4th & 6 at KENN 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 36.7% before the snapGo for it36.7%−0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call36.8%average punt
- Q1 5:24UTEP 4th & 5 at UTEP 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 62.0% before the snapGo for it62.1%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call62.2%average punt
- Q1 3:30KENN 4th & 5 at KENN 43, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 37.5% before the snapGo for it37.6%−0.241% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.8%average punt
- Q2 15:00UTEP 4th & 5 at KENN 42, tiedClose callPunted · 62.9% before the snapGo for it63.1%42% to convertField goal62.7%−0.430% to makePuntTheir call62.9%−0.2average punt
- Q2 13:09KENN 4th & 11 at KENN 13, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 37.4% before the snapGo for it36.9%−1.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call38.0%average punt
- Q2 10:09UTEP 4th & 1 at KENN 1, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call62.7%59% to convertField goal61.5%−1.294% to makePunt58.5%−4.2average punt
- Q2 9:01KENN 4th & 1 at KENN 10, tiedNumbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 37.8% before the snapGo for it38.5%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.2%−1.3average punt
- Q2 6:23UTEP 4th & 4 at KENN 14, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call62.4%46% to convertField goal62.2%−0.284% to makePunt57.0%−5.3average punt
- Q2 1:10KENN 4th & 8 at KENN 32, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.6% before the snapGo for it26.4%−1.433% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call27.7%average punt
- Q2 0:35UTEP 4th & 6 at UTEP 22, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.2% before the snapGo for it68.1%−2.038% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call70.0%average punt
- Q2 0:16KENN 4th & 2 at KENN 48, down 7Close callPunted · 29.7% before the snapGo for it29.5%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call29.3%−0.2average punt
- Q3 12:06UTEP 4th & 1 at KENN 41, up 1Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call65.6%70% to convertField goal61.9%−3.732% to makePunt62.4%−3.2average punt
- Q3 6:13KENN 4th & 8 at UTEP 31, down 8Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.2% before the snapGo for it21.6%−0.434% to convertField goalTheir call22.0%54% to makePunt20.1%−1.9average punt
- Q3 4:01UTEP 4th & 15 at UTEP 26, up 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.6% before the snapGo for it78.2%−4.216% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.5%average punt
- Q3 3:02KENN 4th & 11 at KENN 34, down 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.0% before the snapGo for it15.9%−3.326% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.2%average punt
- Q4 5:52KENN 4th & 12 at UTEP 47, up 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.2% before the snapGo for it56.7%−3.723% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call60.4%average punt
- Q4 3:31UTEP 4th & 12 at UTEP 12, down 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.6% before the snapGo for it28.6%−2.322% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.9%average punt
- Q4 1:12UTEP 4th & 1 at UTEP 32, tiedNumbers favored go for it by 3.7 ptsPunted · 55.6% before the snapGo for it57.8%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call54.1%−3.7average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTEP made the numbers' call on 3 of 3KENN made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
- Q1 7:00UTEP Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call65.3%97% to makeGo for two65.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:56UTEP Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call69.8%97% to makeGo for two69.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 14:12KENN Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call36.8%97% to makeGo for two36.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:23UTEP Touchdown, up 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call74.4%97% to makeGo for two74.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:25KENN Touchdown, down 2 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick38.2%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call37.9%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUTEPDrive 1PUNT8 plays · 19 yds · 2:4166% → 66%
Q1 14:36
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
65.8%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Kenny Odom for 3 yds Kenny Odom fumbled, recovered by UTEP Kenny Odom K. Odom return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1535% → 34%
Q1 11:31
3RD & 8
OWN 29
+2
65.6%
Davis Bryson pass complete to Michael Benefield for 2 yds to the KENN 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 3TD9 plays · 89 yds · 3:5565% → 69%
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+9
65.4%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Trey Goodman for 9 yds to the UTEP 20Similar
Q1 10:26
2ND & 1
OWN 20
+11
65.4%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Trey Goodman for 11 yds to the UTEP 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
65.4%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Kenny Odom for 6 yds to the UTEP 37Similar
Q1 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
66.2%
(08:31) JACKSON, Jevon rush to the left for a gain of 4 yards to the KSU41 (HALLUM, Tyler), clock 08:25. PENALTY Before the snap, KSU Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the KSU45 to the KSU40. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
68.8%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Kenny Odom for 32 yds for a TD (Buzz Flabiano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2365% → 64%
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
65.1%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Jevon Jackson for 1 yd to the UTEP 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:4636% → 36%
UTEPDrive 6PUNT10 plays · 46 yds · 3:2465% → 65%
Q1 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+6
64.6%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Ashten Emory for 6 yds to the UTEP 18Similar
Q1 1:18
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+6
64.3%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Ashten Emory for 6 yds to the UTEP 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
65.3%
Kennesaw State Penalty, Personal Foul (Jamar Rucks) to the KENN 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 7PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 1:4337% → 36%
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
63.2%
Davis Bryson pass complete to Gabriel Benyard for 2 yds to the KENN 16Similar
Q2 13:48
3RD & 6
OWN 18
-5
63.6%
Davis Bryson sacked by Kyran Duhon for a loss of 5 yards to the KENN 13Similar
Q2 13:09
4TH & 11
OWN 13
+62
64.1%
Jacob Ulrich punt for 77 yds , Trey Goodman returns for 62 yds to the KENN 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 8DOWNS5 plays · 27 yds · 2:0367% → 65%
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+20
66.5%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Kenny Odom for 20 yds to the KENN 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:0437% → 36%
UTEPDrive 10DOWNS8 plays · 34 yds · 2:3367% → 65%
KENNDrive 11INT7 plays · 33 yds · 3:1740% → 42%
UTEPDrive 12TD4 plays · 14 yds · 0:4867% → 76%
Q2 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
66.9%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Trey Goodman for 2 yds to the KENN 12Similar
Q2 2:10
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+1
67.0%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Jevon Jackson for 1 yd to the KENN 11Similar
Q2 1:56
3RD & 7
OPP 11
+11
76.2%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Marcus Vinson for 11 yds for a TD (Buzz Flabiano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:3926% → 23%
Q2 1:10
4TH & 8
OWN 32
+1
77.5%
Jacob Ulrich punt for 51 yds , Trey Goodman returns for 1 yd to the UTEP 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:2679% → 77%
KENNDrive 15PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:2125% → 24%
UTEPDrive 16END OF HALF1 play · 4 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 17TD2 plays · 62 yds · 0:4128% → 37%
UTEPDrive 18TD8 plays · 75 yds · 2:4966% → 80%
Q3 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
66.0%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Emari White for 7 yds to the UTEP 32Similar
Q3 13:46
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+18
67.4%
Skyler Locklear run for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
50
+6
68.7%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Trey Goodman for 6 yds to the KENN 44Similar
Q3 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+37
68.7%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Trey Goodman for 37 yds to the KENN 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 19MISSED FG10 plays · 49 yds · 5:0824% → 19%
UTEPDrive 20PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 2:0781% → 81%
Q3 4:01
4TH & 15
OWN 26
0
81.1%
Adam Jacklin punt for 39 yds , Jayven Williams returns for no gain to the KENN 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 21PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 0:5122% → 17%
Q3 3:02
4TH & 11
OWN 34
+24
83.1%
Jacob Ulrich punt for 57 yds , Trey Goodman returns for 24 yds to the UTEP 42 UTEP Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the UTEP 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 22FUMBLE2 plays · 2 yds · 0:2383% → 83%
KENNDrive 23TD4 plays · 22 yds · 1:5824% → 52%
UTEPDrive 24TD8 plays · 75 yds · 4:1553% → 56%
KENNDrive 25PUNT10 plays · 28 yds · 5:1857% → 59%
Q4 10:32
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+11
40.2%
Davis Bryson pass complete to Gabriel Benyard for 11 yds to the KENN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 26PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 2:1042% → 34%
KENNDrive 27TD2 plays · 18 yds · 0:3980% → 62%
UTEPDrive 28PUNT6 plays · 9 yds · 1:2555% → 52%
KENNDrive 29INT7 plays · 27 yds · 0:5050% → 56%
Q4 0:43
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
49.4%
Davis Bryson pass complete to Tykeem Wallace for 3 yds to the KENN 30Similar
Q4 0:41
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+13
50.5%
Davis Bryson pass complete to Tykeem Wallace for 13 yds to the KENN 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
44.8%
Davis Bryson pass complete to Qua Ashley for 8 yds to the UTEP 49Similar
Q4 0:16
3RD & 1
OPP 48
-14
43.6%
Davis Bryson pass intercepted Amier Boyd-Matthews return for 14 yds to the KENN 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 30MISSED FG5 plays · 22 yds · 0:1063% → 64%
Q4 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
63.4%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Trey Goodman for 7 yds to the KENN 38Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+15
63.2%
FLABIANO, Buzz field goal attempt from 55 yards NO GOOD (wide right) [kick was spotted at KSU45], clock 00:00. PENALTY KSU Personal Foul on HALLUM, Tyler enforced 15 yards from the KSU38 to the KSU23 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [FG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 31TD1 play · 25 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 32TD3 plays · 25 yds · 0:0028% → 66%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+23
28.0%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Kenny Odom for 23 yds to the KENN 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 33TD5 plays · 25 yds · 15:0066% → 87%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+12
65.6%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Trey Goodman for 12 yds to the KENN 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 9
-15
65.6%
(00:00) LOCKLEAR, Skyler pass short to the left incomplete intended for ODOM, Kenny thrown to the KSU6. PENALTY UTEP Pass Interference on ODOM, Kenny enforced 15 yards to the KSU24 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 21
OPP 24
+8
62.9%
Skyler Locklear pass complete to Trey Goodman for 8 yds to the KENN 16Similar
OT2 0:00
3RD & 13
OPP 16
+16
86.5%
Kenny Odom 16 Yd pass from Skyler Locklear (Skyler Locklear Pass to Jevon Jackson for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 34END OF GAME11 plays · 16 yds · 0:0013% → 6%
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+6
89.3%
(00:00) BRYSON, Davis pass to the right incomplete intended for BENYARD, Gabriel thrown to the UTEP1. PENALTY UTEP Pass Interference on SHELTON, Jaylon enforced at the spot of the foul for 6 yards to the UTEP7 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · OT 0:00
Qua Ashley 25 Yd pass from Davis Bryson (Austin Welch Kick)
-40.5
TD · OT 0:00
Kenny Odom 2 Yd pass from Skyler Locklear (Buzz Flabiano Kick)
+36.9
TD · Q3 0:25
Michael Benefield 5 Yd Run (Davis Bryson Pass to Carson Kent for Two-Point Conversion)
-31.8