2024 · Week 3 · Sep 14, 2024 · CEFCU Stadium
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Win probability · SJSU
modelSJSU aheadKENN aheadconfidence bandkey playSJSU scoreKENN score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:44 · Jacob Ulrich punt for 47 yds , Matthew Coleman returns for 11 yds to the SJSU 18
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 14:30: Emmett Brown pass complete to Nick Nash for 24 yds for a TD (Kyler Halvorsen KICK) — SJSU win probability +2.5 pts (now 86%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 10:38: Kyler Halvorsen 28 yd FG GOOD — SJSU win probability +1.6 pts (now 86%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:15: Nick Nash 3 Yd pass from Emmett Brown (Kyler Halvorsen Kick) — SJSU win probability +4.4 pts (now 89%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 5:05: Emmett Brown pass complete to Nick Nash for 20 yds to the KENN 35 for a 1ST down — SJSU win probability +6.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:31: Justin Lockhart 35 Yd pass from Emmett Brown (Kyler Halvorsen Kick) — KENN win probability +1.2 pts (now 6%) (top driver: SJSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
SJSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6KENN made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
- Q1 8:38KENN 4th & 4 at SJSU 14, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 14.8% before the snapGo for it14.7%46% to convertField goalTheir call14.7%−<0.184% to makePunt14.2%−0.5average punt
- Q1 7:22SJSU 4th & 11 at KENN 42, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.5% before the snapGo for it84.6%−<0.127% to convertField goal84.5%−0.130% to makePuntTheir call84.6%average punt
- Q1 5:20KENN 4th & 8 at KENN 3, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.6% before the snapGo for it15.4%−0.329% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.7%average punt
- Q1 2:37KENN 4th & 27 at KENN 18, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.0% before the snapGo for it16.5%−0.76% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.2%average punt
- Q2 12:27KENN 4th & 15 at KENN 27, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.4% before the snapGo for it16.0%−0.716% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.6%average punt
- Q2 10:38SJSU 4th & 9 at KENN 11, up 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.3% before the snapGo for it81.9%−0.227% to convertField goalTheir call82.2%87% to makePunt79.9%−2.2average punt
- Q2 7:08KENN 4th & 5 at SJSU 35, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call16.1%42% to convertField goal15.7%−0.445% to makePunt15.3%−0.8average punt
- Q2 4:44KENN 4th & 20 at KENN 46, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.1% before the snapGo for it14.0%−1.310% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.3%average punt
- Q3 2:39KENN 4th & 6 at KENN 34, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.8% before the snapGo for it7.8%−0.540% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.3%average punt
- Q3 1:35SJSU 4th & 2 at KENN 47, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call94.8%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt93.9%−0.9average punt
- Q4 13:42SJSU 4th & 2 at KENN 19, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call95.1%56% to convertField goal94.5%−0.677% to makePunt90.3%−4.8average punt
- Q4 11:41KENN 4th & 10 at KENN 48, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.8% before the snapGo for it6.2%−0.329% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.4%average punt
- Q4 5:11SJSU 4th & 13 at KENN 43, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.7% before the snapGo for it96.4%−0.221% to convertField goal96.4%−0.228% to makePuntTheir call96.6%average punt
- Q4 1:53SJSU 4th & 12 at KENN 46, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snapGo for it99.4%−<0.123% to convertField goal99.4%−0.123% to makePuntTheir call99.4%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SJSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
- Q2 14:30SJSU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call83.6%97% to makeGo for two83.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:15SJSU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.5%97% to makeGo for two89.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 3:07SJSU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%−<0.197% to makeGo for two99.5%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSJSUDrive 1FUMBLE2 plays · 30 yds · 0:0489% → 89%
KENNDrive 2FG15 plays · 27 yds · 6:0611% → 14%
SJSUDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 33 yds · 1:1586% → 86%
Q1 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+34
86.3%
Emmett Brown pass complete to Nick Nash for 34 yds to the KENN 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:5514% → 14%
Q1 5:20
4TH & 8
OWN 3
+22
85.6%
Jacob Ulrich punt for 54 yds , Matthew Coleman returns for 22 yds to the KENN 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 5PUNT7 plays · -17 yds · 2:3115% → 16%
Q1 4:39
2ND & 14
OWN 31
-5
84.9%
Kennesaw State Penalty, False Start (Blake Bohannon) to the KENN 26Similar
Q1 3:39
3RD & 18
OWN 27
-10
84.6%
(03:39) BRYSON, Davis scrambles to the left for a gain of 12 yards to the KSU39, out of bounds, clock 03:32. PENALTY KSU Holding on NORCROSS, Jacob enforced 10 yards from the KSU27 to the KSU17 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 2:37
4TH & 27
OWN 18
0
84.2%
Jacob Ulrich punt for 50 yds , Matthew Coleman returns for no gain to the SJSU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 6TD9 plays · 77 yds · 2:5383% → 86%
Q1 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+14
83.3%
Emmett Brown pass complete to Nick Nash for 14 yds to the SJSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-10
83.3%
(02:00) BROWN, Emmett scrambles up the middle for a gain of 28 yards to the KSU35, out of bounds, clock 01:54. PENALTY SJS Holding on LAPUAHO, Peseti enforced 10 yards from the SJS37 to the SJS27 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 0:22
2ND & 13
OPP 45
+8
82.8%
Emmett Brown pass complete to Matthew Coleman for 8 yds to the KENN 37Similar
Q2 14:59
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+13
83.0%
Emmett Brown pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 13 yds to the KENN 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
85.5%
Emmett Brown pass complete to Nick Nash for 24 yds for a TD (Kyler Halvorsen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 7PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 1:5516% → 15%
Q2 13:07
3RD & 14
OWN 28
-5
84.5%
Qua Ashley run for 5 yds to the KENN 33 Kennesaw State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Michael Benefield) to the KENN 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 8FG5 plays · 50 yds · 1:4084% → 86%
KENNDrive 9DOWNS6 plays · 38 yds · 3:2715% → 15%
SJSUDrive 10FUMBLE3 plays · 7 yds · 0:3986% → 86%
Q2 6:24
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+4
85.7%
Emmett Brown pass complete to TreyShun Hurry for 4 yds TreyShun Hurry fumbled, recovered by KENN JeRico Washington Jr. J. Washington Jr. return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 11PUNT4 plays · -10 yds · 1:3216% → 14%
Q2 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-7
83.6%
Davis Bryson sacked by Quincy Likio for a loss of 7 yards to the KENN 49Similar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 17
OWN 49
-5
84.7%
Khalib Johnson sacked by Jordan Pollard for a loss of 5 yards to the KENN 44Similar
Q2 4:44
4TH & 20
OWN 46
+11
85.6%
Jacob Ulrich punt for 47 yds , Matthew Coleman returns for 11 yds to the SJSU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 12TD14 plays · 82 yds · 4:1885% → 89%
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
85.2%
Emmett Brown pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 9 yds to the SJSU 27Similar
Q2 3:52
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+15
84.7%
(03:52) BROWN, Emmett pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for NASH, Nick thrown to the KSU35; QB hurried by MILES, Jordan, clock 03:46. PENALTY KSU Pass Interference on HALLUM, Tyler enforced 15 yards to the SJS42 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
86.2%
Emmett Brown pass complete to Floyd Chalk IV for 3 yds to the SJSU 45Similar
Q2 3:08
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+23
86.1%
Emmett Brown pass complete to Nick Nash for 23 yds to the KENN 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
86.3%
Emmett Brown pass complete to Nick Nash for 15 yds to the KENN 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 13END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
89.6%
(00:12) [NHSG] Kneel down by KSU at KSU24 (team loss of 1), clock 00:06.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 14TD23 plays · 75 yds · 9:459% → 11%
Q3 14:27
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
90.5%
Davis Bryson pass complete to Blake Bohannon for 5 yds to the KENN 33Similar
Q3 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
90.4%
Davis Bryson pass complete to Blake Bohannon for 6 yds to the KENN 42Similar
Q3 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-10
90.3%
(11:46) BRYSON, Davis pass to the left complete for 8 yards to BENEFIELD, Michael caught at the SJS44 and advanced to the SJS44, out of bounds, clock 11:39. PENALTY KSU Holding on KETTELS, Jacob enforced 10 yards from the KSU48 to the KSU38 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 11:22
1ST & 20
OWN 38
-6
91.1%
run for a loss of 6 yards to the KENN 32 fumbled, recovered by KENN Davis Bryson D. Bryson return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 26
OWN 32
+6
91.3%
Davis Bryson pass complete to Jackson Manning for 6 yds to the KENN 38Similar
Q3 9:57
3RD & 20
OWN 38
+15
91.5%
(09:57) BRYSON, Davis pass deep to the right incomplete intended for BOHANNON, Blake broken up by DANSBY, Michael at the SJS34, clock 09:52. PENALTY SJS Pass Interference on DANSBY, Michael enforced 15 yards to the SJS47 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 9:12
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+12
90.6%
Davis Bryson pass complete to Connor Finer for 12 yds to the SJSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
3RD & 9
OPP 32
+17
89.8%
Davis Bryson pass complete to Qua Ashley for 17 yds to the SJSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
88.5%
(07:03) BRYSON, Davis pass to the left incomplete intended for FINER, Connor thrown to the SJS3, clock 06:59. PENALTY KSU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on FINER, Connor enforced 5 yards from the SJS15 to the SJS20 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 15TD2 plays · 55 yds · 0:3495% → 94%
KENNDrive 16PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:4710% → 8%
Q3 3:17
3RD & 6
OWN 34
0
90.9%
Davis Bryson pass complete to Navelle Dean for no gain to the KENN 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 17DOWNS10 plays · 36 yds · 3:4695% → 96%
Q3 1:35
4TH & 2
OPP 47
+4
94.7%
Emmett Brown pass complete to Jackson Canaan for 4 yds to the KENN 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:30
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+13
96.5%
Emmett Brown pass complete to Nick Nash for 13 yds to the KENN 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
96.6%
Emmett Brown pass complete to Jackson Canaan for 5 yds to the KENN 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 18PUNT7 plays · 29 yds · 1:577% → 7%
SJSUDrive 19PUNT12 plays · 37 yds · 6:2397% → 98%
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
97.3%
Emmett Brown pass complete to Nick Nash for 9 yds to the SJSU 41Similar
Q4 9:42
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+4
97.8%
Emmett Brown pass complete to Nick Nash for 4 yds to the SJSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:22
2ND & 2
OPP 47
-3
97.9%
Emmett Brown sacked by Tylon Dunlap for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 7:42
3RD & 5
50
+10
97.9%
Emmett Brown pass complete to Nick Nash for 10 yds to the KENN 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 20INT3 plays · -3 yds · 0:366% → 4%
SJSUDrive 21TD5 plays · 22 yds · 1:1299% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 22FUMBLE1 play · 8 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
99.5%
Khalib Johnson run for 8 yds to the KENN 44 Khalib Johnson fumbled, recovered by SJSU Nate Lewis N. Lewis return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SJSUDrive 23PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 0:54100% → 100%
Q4 1:53
4TH & 12
OPP 46
0
99.8%
Trent Carrizosa punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Jayven Williams at the KENN 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 24INT3 plays · 0 yds · 0:110% → 0%
SJSUDrive 25END OF GAME3 plays · -5 yds · 0:56100% → 100%
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-2
99.8%
(01:25) Kneel down by SJS at SJS37 (team loss of 2), clock 01:15.Similar
Q4 0:46
2ND & 12
OWN 37
-2
99.8%
(00:46) [NH] Kneel down by SJS at SJS35 (team loss of 2), clock 00:39.Similar
Q4 0:29
3RD & 14
OWN 35
-1
99.8%
(00:29) [NH] Kneel down by SJS at SJS34 (team loss of 1), clock 00:24.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q3 5:05
Emmett Brown pass complete to Nick Nash for 20 yds to the KENN 35 for a 1ST down
+6.1
TD · Q2 0:15
Nick Nash 3 Yd pass from Emmett Brown (Kyler Halvorsen Kick)
+4.4
TD · Q2 14:30
Emmett Brown pass complete to Nick Nash for 24 yds for a TD (Kyler Halvorsen KICK)
+2.5