2024 · Week 14 · Nov 30, 2024 · Joe Aillet Stadium
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Win probability · LT
modelLT aheadKENN aheadconfidence bandkey playLT scoreKENN score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:15 · Patrick Rea punt for 42 yds, downed at the KENN 2
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 14:16: Omiri Wiggins run for 6 yds for a TD (Buck Buchanan KICK) — LT win probability +3.7 pts (now 84%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:57: Buck Buchanan 55 yd FG GOOD — LT win probability +2.9 pts (now 89%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 0:38: Evan Bullock pass complete to Jimmy Holiday for 10 yds to the LT 32 for a 1ST down — LT win probability +3.1 pts (now 91%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 1:58: Evan Bullock pass complete to Tru Edwards for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down — LT win probability +3.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 0:07: Omiri Wiggins run for 35 yds for a TD (Buck Buchanan KICK) — LT win probability +1.6 pts (now 100%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
LT made the numbers' call on 6 of 7KENN made the numbers' call on 12 of 12
- Q1 13:52KENN 4th & 5 at KENN 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 22.0% before the snapGo for it22.0%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.1%average punt
- Q1 10:19KENN 4th & 8 at KENN 27, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.6% before the snapGo for it21.6%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.7%average punt
- Q1 8:26LT 4th & 4 at LT 42, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.2% before the snapGo for it78.3%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call78.4%average punt
- Q1 7:26KENN 4th & 8 at KENN 22, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.3% before the snapGo for it21.3%−0.232% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.5%average punt
- Q1 5:19LT 4th & 7 at LT 33, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.9% before the snapGo for it77.9%−0.336% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call78.2%average punt
- Q1 4:05KENN 4th & 5 at KENN 32, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.4% before the snapGo for it21.4%−0.241% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.6%average punt
- Q2 11:15KENN 4th & 7 at KENN 38, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.4% before the snapGo for it17.2%−0.337% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.4%average punt
- Q2 9:03LT 4th & 7 at midfield, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.0% before the snapGo for it83.9%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call83.9%average punt
- Q2 4:32KENN 4th & 10 at LT 26, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.7% before the snapGo for it15.0%−0.429% to convertField goalTheir call15.4%64% to makePunt12.9%−2.5average punt
- Q2 0:57LT 4th & 19 at KENN 37, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.0% before the snapGo for it85.4%−0.912% to convertField goalTheir call86.3%40% to makePunt85.5%−0.8average punt
- Q2 0:45KENN 4th & 2 at KENN 33, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.5% before the snapGo for it10.9%−0.757% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.5%average punt
- Q3 11:40LT 4th & 1 at LT 45, up 17Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 90.5% before the snapGo for it90.9%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call89.4%−1.5average punt
- Q3 8:46KENN 4th & 6 at KENN 46, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.0% before the snapGo for it9.2%−0.340% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.5%average punt
- Q3 2:15LT 4th & 9 at KENN 44, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.5% before the snapGo for it94.5%−0.132% to convertField goal94.1%−0.627% to makePuntTheir call94.6%average punt
- Q4 14:49KENN 4th & 12 at KENN 23, down 26Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.422% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
- Q4 9:03KENN 4th & 14 at KENN 8, down 33Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.116% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 7:13LT 4th & 14 at LT 45, up 33Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.118% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 5:43KENN 4th & 4 at KENN 23, down 33Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 2:45KENN 4th & 2 at LT 20, down 33Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%57% to convertField goal0.1%−<0.175% to makePunt-0.0%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LT made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 11:41LT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call78.0%97% to makeGo for two78.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:16LT Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call81.9%97% to makeGo for two81.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:07LT Touchdown, up 25 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.3%97% to makeGo for two99.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:50LT Touchdown, up 32 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartKENNDrive 1PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0820% → 21%
Q1 13:52
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+49
79.4%
Jacob Ulrich punt for 45 yds , Solo Lewis returns for 49 yds to the KENN 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 2TD5 plays · 26 yds · 1:5980% → 80%
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+8
79.5%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Tru Edwards for 8 yds to the KENN 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2020% → 20%
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
79.6%
Davis Bryson pass complete to Gabriel Benyard for 4 yds to the KENN 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:4880% → 80%
Q1 9:42
2ND & 4
OWN 42
-5
80.1%
Evan Bullock sacked by Jamar Rucks for a loss of 5 yards to the LT 37Similar
Q1 9:09
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+5
79.7%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Jimmy Holiday for 5 yds to the LT 42Similar
Q1 8:26
4TH & 4
OWN 42
+1
79.6%
Patrick Rea punt for 39 yds , Gabriel Benyard returns for 1 yd to the KENN 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5520% → 20%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:5680% → 79%
KENNDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0621% → 20%
Q1 4:05
4TH & 5
OWN 32
0
79.7%
Jacob Ulrich punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Tru Edwards at the LT 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 8TD9 plays · 84 yds · 4:4279% → 84%
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
79.4%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Jimmy Holiday for 8 yds to the LT 24Similar
Q1 3:24
2ND & 2
OWN 24
+5
79.5%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Abdul-Fatai Ibrahim for 5 yds to the LT 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+17
79.4%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Jimmy Holiday for 17 yds to the LT 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:47
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+2
80.0%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Tru Edwards for 2 yds to the KENN 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 9PUNT7 plays · 13 yds · 3:0218% → 17%
Q2 11:15
4TH & 7
OWN 38
+23
82.7%
Jacob Ulrich punt for 41 yds , Solo Lewis returns for 23 yds to the LT 39 Louisiana Tech Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the LT 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 10PUNT6 plays · 40 yds · 2:0384% → 84%
Q2 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+17
83.7%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Solo Lewis for 17 yds to the LT 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
84.8%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Abdul-Fatai Ibrahim for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 9:03
4TH & 7
50
0
84.0%
Patrick Rea punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Gabriel Benyard at the KENN 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 11MISSED FG10 plays · 62 yds · 4:1817% → 16%
Q2 8:21
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+15
83.5%
Davis Bryson run for no gain to the KENN 15 for a 1ST down Louisiana Tech Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the KENN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+26
82.7%
Davis Bryson pass complete to Gabriel Benyard for 26 yds to the LT 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 6
OPP 22
-4
81.8%
Davis Bryson run for a loss of 4 yards to the LT 26 Davis Bryson fumbled, recovered by KENN Davis Bryson D. Bryson return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 12FG9 plays · 37 yds · 3:3684% → 89%
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+21
84.1%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Jimmy Holiday for 21 yds to the LT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:40
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+7
85.4%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Tru Edwards for 7 yds to the KENN 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 8
OPP 26
-11
86.2%
Evan Bullock sacked by Milon Jones for a loss of 11 yards to the KENN 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:1312% → 12%
LTDrive 14MISSED FG7 plays · 41 yds · 0:3891% → 90%
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+10
91.4%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Jimmy Holiday for 10 yds to the LT 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
91.6%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Omiri Wiggins for 8 yds to the LT 40Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+11
90.1%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Abdul-Fatai Ibrahim for 11 yds to the KENN 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+12
89.5%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Jimmy Holiday for 12 yds to the KENN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 15PUNT10 plays · 31 yds · 3:1790% → 90%
KENNDrive 16PUNT9 plays · 34 yds · 2:5010% → 10%
Q3 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
90.3%
Davis Bryson pass complete to Gabriel Benyard for no gain to the KENN 24Similar
Q3 9:56
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+14
90.7%
Davis Bryson pass complete to Tykeem Wallace for 14 yds to the KENN 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
89.9%
Davis Bryson pass complete to Blake Bohannon for 9 yds to the LT 49Similar
Q3 8:49
3RD & 1
OPP 49
-5
89.4%
QB Keeper BRYSON, Davis rush up the middle for no gain to the LAT49 (ZIMOS, Zach), clock 08:49. PENALTY Before the snap, KSU False Start on KETTELS, Jacob enforced 5 yards from the LAT49 to the KSU46. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:46
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
90.5%
Jacob Ulrich punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Tru Edwards at the LT 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 17PUNT14 plays · 37 yds · 6:3293% → 94%
Q3 7:34
3RD & 7
OWN 22
+8
93.2%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Amani Givens for 8 yds to the LT 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+14
93.8%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Tru Edwards for 14 yds to the LT 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:21
2ND & 7
OWN 47
-1
94.4%
Evan Bullock run for a loss of 1 yard to the LT 46 Jessie Evans fumbled, recovered by LT Evan Bullock E. Bullock return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q3 4:45
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+9
94.4%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Tru Edwards for 9 yds to the KENN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
94.8%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Tru Edwards for 5 yds to the KENN 40Similar
Q3 2:25
4TH & 4
OPP 39
-5
96.5%
Louisiana Tech Penalty, Delay Of Game (Evan Bullock) to the KENN 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 18SF1 play · -1 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q3 2:04
1ST & 11
OWN 1
0
94.3%
Davis Bryson run for a loss of 1 yard for a SAFETY Davis Bryson fumbled, recovered by KENN Davis Bryson D. Bryson return for 0 yds for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 19TD4 plays · 63 yds · 1:5198% → 100%
KENNDrive 20PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 0:190% → 0%
Q4 14:49
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+10
99.6%
Jacob Ulrich punt for 56 yds , Solo Lewis returns for 10 yds to the LT 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 21TD8 plays · 69 yds · 3:49100% → 100%
Q4 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
99.7%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Tru Edwards for 15 yds to the KENN 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:21
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+10
99.8%
Kennesaw State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jalen Barnum) to the KENN 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
99.8%
(10:57) BULLOCK, Evan pass to the left incomplete intended for EDWARDS, Tru thrown to the KSU2, clock 10:54. PENALTY KSU Pass Interference on REDDING, Markell enforced 8 yards to the KSU2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 22PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 1:470% → 0%
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-10
99.9%
Davis Bryson sacked by Sifa Leota for a loss of 10 yards to the KENN 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 23PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 1:37100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 24PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:220% → 0%
Q4 5:43
4TH & 4
OWN 23
+26
99.9%
Jacob Ulrich punt for 43 yds , Solo Lewis returns for 26 yds to the KENN 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 25DOWNS9 plays · 33 yds · 2:420% → 0%
Q4 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
99.9%
Davis Bryson pass complete to Gabriel Benyard for 9 yds to the KENN 49Similar
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
99.9%
Davis Bryson pass complete to Jaden Robinson for 3 yds to the LT 40Similar
Q4 4:07
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+12
99.9%
Davis Bryson pass complete to Navelle Dean for 12 yds to the LT 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:45
4TH & 2
OPP 20
-7
99.9%
Davis Bryson sacked by David Blay for a loss of 7 yards to the LT 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 26END OF GAME4 plays · 6 yds · 2:01100% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 14:16
Omiri Wiggins run for 6 yds for a TD (Buck Buchanan KICK)
+3.7
KEY PLAY · Q3 1:58
Evan Bullock pass complete to Tru Edwards for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
+3.5
KEY PLAY · Q2 0:38
Evan Bullock pass complete to Jimmy Holiday for 10 yds to the LT 32 for a 1ST down
+3.1