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LT

Louisiana Tech 3 at Sam Houston 9

SHSU
2024 · Week 10 · Oct 29, 2024 · Elliott T. Bowers Stadium
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Win probability · SHSU
modelSHSU aheadLT aheadconfidence bandkey playSHSU scoreLT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGSAFETYTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · J. Bauer takes a knee
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:38: Timeout Louisiana Tech, clock 00:38 — SHSU win probability +11.1 pts (now 71%) (top driver: SHSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:40: Jay Ducker run for 40 yds for a TD (Christian Pavon KICK) — SHSU win probability +11.1 pts (now 79%) (top driver: SHSU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 12:45: Omiri Wiggins run for 3 yds to the SHSU 29 — LT win probability +14.6 pts (now 33%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 10:20: Jay Ducker run for no gain to the SHSU 5 — SHSU win probability +14.0 pts (now 84%) (top driver: SHSU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 3:58: Jay Ducker run for 1 yd to the SHSU 4 — SHSU win probability +14.6 pts (now 89%) (top driver: SHSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SHSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 10LT made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 9:42LT 4th & 1 at SHSU 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.8%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    24.6%−0.2
    91% to make
    Punt
    24.1%−0.8
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:48SHSU 4th & 1 at SHSU 16, tied
    Close callPunted · 74.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.4%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:24LT 4th & 5 at SHSU 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.4%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.5%
    91% to make
    Punt
    25.7%−1.7
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:08SHSU 4th & 9 at SHSU 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.2%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:49SHSU 4th & 11 at LT 44, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.2%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    70.0%−0.5
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    70.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:41LT 4th & 1 at SHSU 29, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    32.3%−1.9
    58% to make
    Punt
    28.9%−5.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:05SHSU 4th & 18 at LT 42, down 1
    Numbers favored punt by 2.3 ptsWent for it · 63.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.2%−2.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    62.2%−1.3
    30% to make
    Punt
    63.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:48LT 4th & 7 at LT 28, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.5%−1.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:09SHSU 4th & 6 at LT 25, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.7%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.7%
    66% to make
    Punt
    70.8%−7.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:44LT 4th & 9 at LT 26, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.7%−2.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:22SHSU 4th & 2 at SHSU 43, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 77.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.4%−1.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:25LT 4th & 17 at LT 21, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.5%−4.9
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:00SHSU 4th & 2 at SHSU 43, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 80.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.0%−1.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:54LT 4th & 6 at LT 32, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.9%−1.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:13SHSU 4th & 1 at SHSU 14, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.8 ptsPunted · 83.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.3%−2.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:58LT 4th & 3 at SHSU 3, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.9%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    19.8%−7.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    7.9%−19.0
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:04SHSU 4th & 4 at SHSU 9, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.6%−0.5
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.1%
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:04SHSU 4th & 4 at SHSU 9, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.6%−0.5
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.1%
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:01LT 4th & 9 at SHSU 34, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.2%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    7.5%−5.7
    47% to make
    Punt
    6.3%−6.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SHSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q3 11:40SHSU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LTDrive 1FUMBLE
12 plays · 68 yds · 5:1823% → 25%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
76.9%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Fred Robertson for 4 yds to the LT 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+9
76.9%
Fred Robertson run for 9 yds to the LT 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
76.9%
Evan Bullock run for 8 yds to the LT 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+5
76.9%
Fred Robertson run for 5 yds to the SHSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
76.9%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Tru Edwards for 15 yds to the SHSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
76.9%
Omiri Wiggins run for no gain to the SHSU 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+19
76.9%
Jimmy Holiday run for 19 yds to the SHSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-7
76.9%
Evan Bullock sacked by Briceon Hayes for a loss of 7 yards to the SHSU 22Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 17
OPP 22
+11
76.9%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Tru Edwards for 11 yds to the SHSU 11Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 11
+5
76.9%
Evan Bullock run for 5 yds to the SHSU 6Similar
Q1 9:42
4TH & 1
OPP 6
+1
75.4%
Fred Robertson run for 1 yd to the SHSU 7 Fred Robertson fumbled, recovered by SHSU Seth MasonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5476% → 75%
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+1
75.7%
Jay Ducker run for 1 yd to the SHSU 8Similar
Q1 9:42
2ND & 9
OWN 8
+2
75.6%
Jay Ducker run for 2 yds to the SHSU 10Similar
Q1 9:42
3RD & 7
OWN 10
+6
75.5%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Elijah Sohn for 6 yds to the SHSU 16Similar
Q1 7:48
4TH & 1
OWN 16
0
74.7%
Jadon Cardell punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 3FG
13 plays · 48 yds · 5:2425% → 28%
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
74.6%
Amani Givens run for 2 yds to the LT 44Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 12
OWN 44
+8
74.8%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Eli Finley for 8 yds to the SHSU 48Similar
Q1 7:48
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+7
74.6%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Jimmy Holiday for 7 yds to the SHSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-2
74.5%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Tru Edwards for a loss of 2 yards to the SHSU 43Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 12
OPP 43
+6
74.6%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Abdul-Fatai Ibrahim for 6 yds to the SHSU 37Similar
Q1 7:48
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+14
74.6%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Eli Finley for 14 yds to the SHSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
74.3%
Amani Givens run for 7 yds to the SHSU 16Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 3
OPP 16
+1
74.3%
Amani Givens run for 1 yd to the SHSU 15Similar
Q1 7:48
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+4
74.5%
Amani Givens run for 4 yds to the SHSU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
74.3%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Tru Edwards for 5 yds to the SHSU 6Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 5
OPP 6
0
74.3%
Evan Bullock pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:48
3RD & 5
OPP 6
0
74.5%
Evan Bullock pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:24
4TH & 5
OPP 6
+24
72.0%
Buck Buchanan 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:1672% → 71%
Q1 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
72.2%
Hunter Watson run for 5 yds to the SHSU 30Similar
Q1 2:24
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
72.5%
DJ McKinney run for 6 yds to the SHSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
72.6%
Hunter Watson run for no gain to the SHSU 36Similar
Q1 2:24
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
72.4%
Hunter Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:24
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+1
71.9%
Hunter Watson run for 1 yd to the SHSU 37Similar
Q1 0:08
4TH & 9
OWN 37
0
70.6%
Jadon Cardell punt for 57 yds , Solo Lewis returns for no gain to the LT 3 Solo Lewis fumbled, recovered by LT Colton DeckardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 5SF
1 play · -3 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 3
-3
71.7%
Kendrick DuJour SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 28 yds · 3:0672% → 71%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
72.1%
Jay Ducker run for 6 yds to the SHSU 34Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+23
72.9%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Michael Phoenix II for 23 yds to the LT 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
73.5%
Jay Ducker run for 2 yds to the LT 41Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+8
73.5%
Hunter Watson run for 8 yds to the LT 49 Hunter Watson fumbled, recovered by SHSU Hunter WatsonSimilar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 16
OPP 49
+5
72.0%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Jay Ducker for 5 yds to the LT 44Similar
Q2 11:49
4TH & 11
OPP 44
0
70.5%
Jadon Cardell punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 7INT
13 plays · 51 yds · 5:0830% → 34%
Q2 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
70.2%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Solo Lewis for 7 yds to the LT 27Similar
Q2 11:49
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+6
69.7%
Omiri Wiggins run for 6 yds to the LT 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
69.8%
Omiri Wiggins run for 5 yds to the LT 38Similar
Q2 11:49
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+9
69.0%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Eli Finley for 9 yds to the LT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
69.0%
Jimmy Holiday run for 6 yds to the SHSU 47Similar
Q2 11:49
2ND & 4
OPP 47
0
68.6%
Evan Bullock pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:49
3RD & 4
OPP 47
-10
69.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Wiggins,Omiri rush middle for 7 yards gain to the SAM40 (Jimmerson,Jaylon) PENALTY TECH Holding (Hale,Bert) 10 yards from SAM47 to TECH43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:49
3RD & 14
OWN 43
+19
70.3%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Tru Edwards for 19 yds to the SHSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
68.7%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Tru Edwards for 9 yds to the SHSU 29Similar
Q2 11:49
2ND & 1
OPP 29
0
68.2%
Evan Bullock pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:49
3RD & 1
OPP 29
0
68.7%
Jimmy Holiday run for no gain to the SHSU 29Similar
Q2 6:41
4TH & 1
OPP 29
0
66.4%
Evan Bullock pass intercepted Caleb Weaver return for 24 yards to the LT 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 8INT
11 plays · 36 yds · 4:3671% → 71%
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
71.3%
Hunter Watson run for 2 yds to the LT 49Similar
Q2 6:41
2ND & 12
OPP 49
+3
70.0%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Noah Smith for 3 yds to the LT 46Similar
Q2 6:41
3RD & 9
OPP 46
+13
70.6%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Simeon Evans for 13 yds to the LT 33 for a 1ST down Louisiana Tech Penalty, (Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
72.3%
Hunter Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:41
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+6
72.2%
Jay Ducker run for 6 yds to the LT 27Similar
Q2 6:41
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+5
71.3%
Hunter Watson run for 5 yds to the LT 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
72.3%
PENALTY TECH Offside (Blay,David) 5 yards from TECH22 to TECH17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:41
1ST & 5
OPP 17
+1
72.3%
Jay Ducker run for 1 yd to the LT 16Similar
Q2 6:41
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+2
72.3%
Hunter Watson run for 2 yds to the LT 14Similar
Q2 6:41
3RD & 2
OPP 14
+3
71.2%
Hunter Watson run for 3 yds to the LT 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
71.1%
Hunter Watson pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 9FUMBLE
9 plays · 36 yds · 1:2735% → 40%
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
65.1%
Marquis Crosby run for 9 yds to the LT 29Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+3
62.8%
Omiri Wiggins run for 3 yds to the LT 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
63.5%
Omiri Wiggins run for 4 yds to the LT 36Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 6
OWN 36
0
62.9%
Evan Bullock pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+9
64.1%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Jimmy Holiday for 9 yds to the LT 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+14
62.1%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Tru Edwards for 14 yds to the SHSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
61.0%
Amani Givens run for 3 yds to the SHSU 38Similar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+6
60.0%
Evan Bullock run for 6 yds to the SHSU 44 Evan Bullock fumbled, recovered by SHSU Kavian GaitherSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 10DOWNS
8 plays · 14 yds · 0:3369% → 61%
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+22
68.6%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Simeon Evans for 22 yds to the LT 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
71.1%
Hunter Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 10
OPP 34
-8
71.0%
Hunter Watson sacked by David Blay for a loss of 8 yards to the LT 42Similar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 18
OPP 42
0
65.5%
Hunter Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:05
4TH & 18
OPP 42
0
61.1%
Hunter Watson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
61.1%
E. Bullock takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 12TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:2065% → 79%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
65.4%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Simeon Evans for 5 yds to the SHSU 30 Sam Houston Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the SHSU 20Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+8
65.1%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Elijah Sohn for 8 yds to the SHSU 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
65.6%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Jay Ducker for 4 yds to the SHSU 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+10
65.1%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Ife Adeyi for 10 yds to the SHSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
67.7%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Noah Smith for 7 yds to the SHSU 49Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+11
68.3%
Hunter Watson run for 11 yds to the LT 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
79.4%
Jay Ducker run for 40 yds for a TD (Christian Pavon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5225% → 23%
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
75.3%
Amani Givens run for 3 yds to the LT 28Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
75.0%
Evan Bullock pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:40
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
76.1%
Evan Bullock pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:48
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
76.8%
Patrick Rea punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Ife Adeyi at the SHSU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 14MISSED FG
8 plays · 46 yds · 3:3977% → 78%
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
77.4%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Noah Smith for 6 yds to the SHSU 35Similar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+2
78.4%
DJ McKinney run for 2 yds to the SHSU 37Similar
Q3 10:48
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+22
78.0%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Noah Smith for 22 yds to the LT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+12
79.5%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Noah Smith for 12 yds to the LT 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
79.8%
Jay Ducker run for 6 yds to the LT 23Similar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+2
79.8%
Jay Ducker run for 2 yds to the LT 25Similar
Q3 10:48
3RD & 6
OPP 25
0
79.0%
Hunter Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:09
4TH & 6
OPP 25
+42
77.8%
Christian Pavon 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:2525% → 23%
Q3 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
75.1%
Evan Bullock pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
75.3%
Omiri Wiggins run for 3 yds to the LT 28Similar
Q3 7:09
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-2
76.0%
Evan Bullock sacked by Kendrick DuJour for a loss of 2 yards to the LT 26Similar
Q3 5:44
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
77.0%
Patrick Rea punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Ife Adeyi at the SHSU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2278% → 78%
Q3 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
77.7%
Hunter Watson run for 7 yds to the SHSU 42Similar
Q3 5:44
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+1
79.6%
DJ McKinney run for 1 yd to the SHSU 43Similar
Q3 5:44
3RD & 2
OWN 43
0
78.6%
Hunter Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:22
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
77.5%
Jadon Cardell punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Solo Lewis at the LT 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 2:5725% → 23%
Q3 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-1
74.7%
Evan Bullock sacked by Richard Outland Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the LT 15Similar
Q3 4:22
2ND & 11
OWN 15
+13
75.2%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Eli Finley for 13 yds to the LT 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
74.3%
Fred Robertson run for 1 yd to the LT 29Similar
Q3 4:22
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+1
74.4%
Evan Bullock run for 1 yd to the LT 30Similar
Q3 4:22
3RD & 8
OWN 30
-9
75.7%
Evan Bullock sacked by Chris Murray for a loss of 9 yards to the LT 21Similar
Q3 1:25
4TH & 17
OWN 21
0
77.0%
Patrick Rea punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SHSU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2581% → 80%
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
80.9%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Jay Ducker for 5 yds to the SHSU 40Similar
Q3 1:25
2ND & 5
OWN 40
-3
82.5%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Noah Smith for a loss of 3 yards to the SHSU 37Similar
Q3 0:03
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+6
80.5%
Jase Bauer run for 6 yds to the SHSU 43Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
80.0%
Jadon Cardell punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Solo Lewis at the LT 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:0626% → 24%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+9
74.1%
Jack Turner pass complete to Tru Edwards for 9 yds to the LT 22Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 22
+6
72.7%
Jack Turner pass complete to Solo Lewis for 6 yds to the LT 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
73.1%
Amani Givens run for 4 yds to the LT 32Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 32
0
72.6%
Jack Turner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 32
0
73.8%
Jack Turner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:54
4TH & 6
OWN 32
0
75.8%
Patrick Rea punt for 37 yds , Ife Adeyi returns for no gain to the SHSU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 20FUMBLE
1 play · 12 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
81.7%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Michael Phoenix II for 12 yds Michael Phoenix II fumbled, recovered by LT Roderick RobersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 21FUMBLE
5 plays · 27 yds · 2:2533% → 30%
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
67.0%
Omiri Wiggins run for 3 yds to the SHSU 29Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+5
66.3%
Omiri Wiggins run for 5 yds to the SHSU 24Similar
Q4 12:45
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+20
68.5%
Omiri Wiggins run for 15 yds to the SHSU 9 for a 1ST down Sam Houston Penalty, Face Mask (5 yards) (Da'Veawn Armstead) to the SHSU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
66.2%
Omiri Wiggins run for 2 yds to the SHSU 2Similar
Q4 10:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+3
69.6%
Jimmy Holiday run for 3 yds to the SHSU 5 Jimmy Holiday fumbled, recovered by SHSU Trey FieldsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:0784% → 83%
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
83.6%
Jay Ducker run for no gain to the SHSU 5Similar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 10
OWN 5
+3
83.3%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Simeon Evans for 3 yds to the SHSU 8Similar
Q4 10:20
3RD & 7
OWN 8
+6
82.4%
Jase Bauer run for 6 yds to the SHSU 14Similar
Q4 8:13
4TH & 1
OWN 14
+23
83.3%
Jadon Cardell punt for 45 yds , Solo Lewis returns for 23 yds to the SHSU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 23DOWNS
9 plays · 33 yds · 4:1528% → 26%
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
72.2%
Jack Turner pass complete to Jimmy Holiday for 1 yd to the SHSU 35Similar
Q4 8:13
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+5
70.4%
Amani Givens run for 5 yds to the SHSU 30Similar
Q4 8:13
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+7
71.7%
Jack Turner pass complete to Jimmy Holiday for 7 yds to the SHSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
69.4%
Jack Turner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:13
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+16
70.4%
Jack Turner pass complete to Abdul-Fatai Ibrahim for 16 yds to the SHSU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
69.4%
Amani Givens run for 1 yd to the SHSU 8Similar
Q4 8:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
69.4%
Omiri Wiggins run for 3 yds to the SHSU 5Similar
Q4 8:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
71.6%
Jack Turner pass complete to Eli Finley for 2 yds to the SHSU 3Similar
Q4 3:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
0
74.3%
Jack Turner pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 24PUNT
8 plays · 6 yds · 1:5489% → 93%
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+1
88.9%
Jay Ducker run for 1 yd to the SHSU 4Similar
Q4 3:58
2ND & 9
OWN 4
+4
88.6%
Jay Ducker run for 4 yds to the SHSU 8Similar
Q4 3:58
3RD & 5
OWN 8
-4
87.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Bauer,Jase pass complete short right to Smith,Noah caught at SAM11, for 11 yards to the SAM19 (Roberson, Jr.,Roderick) PENALTY SAM Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Beall,MarKendrick) 4 yards from SAM08 to SAM04. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:19
3RD & 9
OWN 4
+5
92.4%
Jay Ducker run for 5 yds to the SHSU 9Similar
Q4 2:04
4TH & 4
OWN 9
+9
92.9%
Jadon Cardell punt for 44 yds , Solo Lewis returns for 9 yds to the SHSU 44Similar
Q4 2:04
4TH & 4
OWN 9
+8
92.9%
Jadon Cardell punt for 44 yds , Solo Lewis returns for 8 yds to the LT 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 25DOWNS
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:0316% → 14%
Q4 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
84.5%
Amani Givens run for 3 yds to the LT 48Similar
Q4 1:59
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+17
83.0%
Jack Turner pass complete to Jimmy Holiday for 17 yds to the SHSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
78.0%
Jack Turner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:59
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+1
78.5%
Jack Turner pass complete to Jimmy Holiday for 1 yd to the SHSU 34Similar
Q4 1:59
3RD & 9
OPP 34
0
81.6%
Jack Turner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:01
4TH & 9
OPP 34
0
86.3%
Jack Turner pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 26END OF GAME
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:0195% → 96%
Q4 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-2
95.3%
J. Bauer takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:56
2ND & 12
OWN 32
-1
96.0%
J. Bauer takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 13
OWN 31
-1
96.0%
J. Bauer takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 12:45
Omiri Wiggins run for 3 yds to the SHSU 29
-14.6
KEY PLAY · Q4 3:58
Jay Ducker run for 1 yd to the SHSU 4
+14.6
KEY PLAY · Q4 10:20
Jay Ducker run for no gain to the SHSU 5
+14
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com