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Louisiana Tech 30 at New Mexico State 33

NMSU
2024 · Week 8 · Oct 15, 2024 · Aggie Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NMSU
modelNMSU aheadLT aheadconfidence bandkey playNMSU scoreLT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2TDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDFGFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:46 · George Eberle punt for 37 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2Play 5Pregame prior−33.5Home team on offense+0.0Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Time remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 4:54: Tru Edwards 15 Yd pass from Evan Bullock (Buck Buchanan Kick) — LT win probability +27.1 pts (now 91%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 1:41: Brandon Nunez run for 4 yds for a TD (Abraham Montano KICK) — NMSU win probability +45.0 pts (now 66%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  3. FG · OT 0:00: Abraham Montano 38 Yd Field Goal — NMSU win probability +15.8 pts (now 79%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  4. FG · OT 0:00: Buck Buchanan 37 Yd Field Goal — LT win probability +26.5 pts (now 50%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  5. TD · OT2 0:00: Mike Washington 4 Yd Run for a TD — NMSU win probability +44.1 pts (now 85%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NMSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6LT made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 13:46NMSU 4th & 6 at NMSU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.4%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:22LT 4th & 21 at LT 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.0%−0.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:52NMSU 4th & 3 at LT 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.2%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    26.0%−0.2
    40% to make
    Punt
    26.0%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:21LT 4th & 5 at LT 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.3%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:50NMSU 4th & 13 at LT 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.1%−0.4
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    29.1%−0.5
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    29.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:04LT 4th & 3 at LT 15, tied
    Close callPunted · 68.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:32NMSU 4th & 6 at NMSU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.6%−0.6
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 14:16LT 4th & 10 at LT 37, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.2%−1.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:52LT 4th & 13 at LT 17, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.6%−3.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:16LT 4th & 13 at NMSU 43, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.0%−1.7
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    48.2%−1.5
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    49.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:40NMSU 4th & 5 at NMSU 30, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.8%−0.9
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.7%
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:11LT 4th & 3 at NMSU 23, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 43.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.9%−0.7
    70% to make
    Punt
    30.8%−12.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:41NMSU 4th & 3 at NMSU 42, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 50.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.1%−1.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:41LT 4th & 3 at NMSU 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    54.0%−2.3
    70% to make
    Punt
    36.4%−20.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:03LT 4th & 4 at NMSU 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.1%−14.0
    43% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.1%
    89% to make
    Punt
    22.9%−34.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NMSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3LT made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q2 11:44NMSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:59LT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:12LT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:26NMSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 4:54LT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.8%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.3%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:41NMSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.4%−1.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NMSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1416% → 17%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
16.2%
Seth McGowan run for 2 yds to the NMSU 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
16.2%
Seth McGowan run for 5 yds to the NMSU 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
16.2%
Parker Awad run for 2 yds to the NMSU 34Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-5
16.2%
New Mexico State Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the NMSU 29Similar
Q1 13:46
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
16.7%
George Eberle punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -11 yds · 2:2483% → 82%
Q1 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
16.8%
Evan Bullock pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:46
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-13
16.8%
Evan Bullock sacked by Kale Edwards for a loss of 13 yards to the LT 21Similar
Q1 13:46
3RD & 23
OWN 21
+2
16.8%
Omiri Wiggins run for 2 yds to the LT 23Similar
Q1 11:22
4TH & 21
OWN 23
+47
18.1%
Patrick Rea punt for 47 yds , TJ Pride returns for no gain to the NMSU 41 , returns for no gain to the NMSU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 3Uncategorized
5 plays · 12 yds · 11:2282% → 77%
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
17.8%
Marlion Jackson run for 3 yds to the LT 47Similar
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-7
17.7%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Tru Edwards for a loss of 7 yards to the LT 49Similar
Q1 11:22
2ND & 17
OWN 49
0
17.9%
Evan Bullock pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:05
3RD & 17
OWN 49
-9
18.6%
Evan Bullock sacked by Kale Edwards for a loss of 9 yards to the NMSU 42Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+9
22.7%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Omiri Wiggins for 9 yds to the NMSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 4DOWNS
6 plays · 22 yds · 3:1319% → 21%
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
18.9%
Parker Awad run for 9 yds to the LT 49Similar
Q1 10:05
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+5
19.0%
Louisiana Tech Penalty, Offsides (David Blay) to the LT 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
19.0%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:05
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+7
19.0%
Seth McGowan run for 7 yds to the LT 37Similar
Q1 10:05
3RD & 3
OPP 37
0
19.0%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:52
4TH & 3
OPP 37
+1
20.5%
Parker Awad pass complete to Kordell David for 1 yd to the LT 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3180% → 79%
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
20.0%
Fred Robertson run for 1 yd to the LT 37Similar
Q1 6:52
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+4
20.0%
Jimmy Holiday run for 4 yds to the LT 41Similar
Q1 6:52
3RD & 5
OWN 41
0
19.8%
Evan Bullock pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:21
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
21.1%
Patrick Rea punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 6PUNT
13 plays · 42 yds · 5:3121% → 24%
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+10
21.0%
Isaiah Rudison run for 10 yds to the NMSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+10
21.1%
Seth McGowan run for 10 yds to the NMSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
21.2%
Seth McGowan run for 2 yds to the NMSU 34Similar
Q1 5:21
2ND & 8
OWN 34
0
21.2%
Parker Awad pass complete to Jerry Lydiatt for no gain to the NMSU 34Similar
Q1 5:21
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+12
20.9%
Parker Awad pass complete to PJ Johnson III for 12 yds to the NMSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
21.7%
Tim Gans run for 5 yds to the LT 49Similar
Q1 5:21
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+3
21.8%
Tim Gans run for 3 yds to the LT 46Similar
Q1 5:21
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+3
21.7%
Seth McGowan run for 3 yds to the LT 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
21.8%
New Mexico State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the LT 48Similar
Q1 5:21
1ST & 15
OPP 48
0
21.5%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 15
OPP 48
+2
25.0%
Parker Awad pass complete to PJ Johnson III for 2 yds to the LT 46Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 46
0
24.6%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:50
4TH & 13
OPP 46
0
23.9%
George Eberle punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jimmy Holiday at the LT 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:4676% → 74%
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
23.9%
Omiri Wiggins run for 3 yds to the LT 11Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+3
23.9%
Omiri Wiggins run for 3 yds to the LT 14Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 4
OWN 14
+1
24.2%
Omiri Wiggins run for 1 yd to the LT 15Similar
Q2 13:04
4TH & 3
OWN 15
0
25.8%
Patrick Rea punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 8TD
3 plays · 56 yds · 1:2027% → 32%
Q2 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
26.7%
Seth McGowan run for 1 yd to the NMSU 45Similar
Q2 13:04
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+2
26.5%
Seth McGowan run for 2 yds to the NMSU 47Similar
Q2 11:44
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+53
32.2%
Parker Awad pass complete to TJ Pride for 53 yds for a TD (Abraham Montano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 9TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 6:4569% → 74%
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
31.2%
Fred Robertson run for 6 yds to the LT 31Similar
Q2 11:44
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-6
30.5%
Evan Bullock sacked by Kale Edwards and Justin Beadles for a loss of 6 yards to the LT 25Similar
Q2 11:44
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+14
31.9%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Tru Edwards for 14 yds to the LT 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-10
30.2%
BULLOCK, Evan scrambles to the right for a gain of 3 yards to the TECH42 (EARLY, Dylan), out of bounds. PENALTY TECH Holding on FINLEY, Eli enforced 10 yards from the TECH39 to the TECH29 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:44
1ST & 20
OWN 29
0
31.2%
Louisiana Tech Penalty, Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on MCGILL, Zarian (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 11:44
2ND & 20
OWN 29
+11
31.6%
Fred Robertson run for 11 yds to the LT 40Similar
Q2 11:44
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+20
30.9%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Jimmy Holiday for 20 yds to the NMSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
29.4%
Evan Bullock pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:44
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+8
29.5%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Jimmy Holiday for 8 yds to the NMSU 32Similar
Q2 11:44
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+2
29.3%
Fred Robertson run for 2 yds to the NMSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
28.6%
Evan Bullock pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:44
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+2
28.7%
Marlion Jackson run for 2 yds to the NMSU 28Similar
Q2 11:44
3RD & 8
OPP 28
+19
29.6%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Tru Edwards for 19 yds to the NMSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
28.4%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Dakota Williams for 2 yds to the NMSU 7Similar
Q2 11:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
28.4%
Evan Bullock pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
25.7%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Tru Edwards for 7 yds for a TD (Buck Buchanan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2731% → 30%
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
30.9%
Mike Washington run for no gain to the NMSU 25Similar
Q2 4:59
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
30.6%
Mike Washington run for 4 yds to the NMSU 29Similar
Q2 4:59
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
30.2%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:32
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+14
30.1%
George Eberle punt for 40 yds , Solo Lewis returns for 14 yds to the LT 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 11TD
8 plays · 40 yds · 2:2473% → 83%
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
27.0%
Amani Givins run for 13 yds to the NMSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
26.5%
Amani Givins run for 6 yds to the NMSU 36Similar
Q2 3:32
2ND & 4
OPP 36
0
26.2%
Evan Bullock pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+6
26.3%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Tru Edwards for 6 yds to the NMSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
25.6%
Amani Givins run for 1 yd to the NMSU 29Similar
Q2 1:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
17.4%
Omiri Wiggins run for 1 yd for a TD Louisiana Tech Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Hunter Tipton) to the NMSU 0 (Buck Buchanan KICK)Similar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+28
17.5%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Eli Finley for 28 yds to the NMSU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 12FG
11 plays · 39 yds · 1:0822% → 32%
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
21.8%
Seth McGowan run for 10 yds to the NMSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
23.0%
Parker Awad run for 5 yds to the NMSU 45Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+5
23.5%
Parker Awad pass complete to Seth McGowan for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
50
-5
24.4%
New Mexico State Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the NMSU 45Similar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 15
OWN 45
+13
22.7%
Louisiana Tech Penalty, Personal Foul (Sifa Leota) to the LT 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
24.6%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+9
26.5%
Parker Awad pass complete to TJ Pride for 9 yds to the LT 31Similar
Q2 0:04
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+48
31.8%
Abraham Montano 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
25.6%
Kneel down by BULLOCK, Evan at TECH24 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:4474% → 72%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
26.5%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Tru Edwards for 12 yds to the LT 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
25.7%
Evan Bullock pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
26.0%
Evan Bullock pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
27.1%
Evan Bullock pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:16
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
28.2%
Patrick Rea punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 15TD
12 plays · 88 yds · 5:5028% → 50%
Q3 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-2
27.9%
Seth McGowan run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMSU 10Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 12
OWN 10
+3
27.7%
Parker Awad pass complete to TJ Pride for 3 yds to the NMSU 13Similar
Q3 14:16
3RD & 9
OWN 13
+20
26.8%
Parker Awad pass complete to Seth McGowan for 20 yds to the NMSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
28.4%
Seth McGowan run for 3 yds to the NMSU 36Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+4
29.7%
Mike Washington run for 4 yds to the NMSU 40Similar
Q3 14:16
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+5
29.5%
Parker Awad pass complete to Jerry Lydiatt for 5 yds to the NMSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
30.2%
Mike Washington run for no gain to the NMSU 45Similar
Q3 9:54
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
30.6%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:54
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+45
29.5%
Parker Awad pass complete to PJ Johnson III for 45 yds to the LT 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
34.8%
Mike Washington run for 3 yds to the LT 7Similar
Q3 8:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
50.1%
Brandon Nunez 7 Yd Run (Abraham Montano Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:2957% → 52%
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
43.3%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Jimmy Holiday for no gain to the LT 20Similar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-3
43.8%
Evan Bullock sacked by Gabe Jones and Kale Edwards for a loss of 3 yards to the LT 17Similar
Q3 8:21
3RD & 13
OWN 17
0
45.3%
Evan Bullock pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:52
4TH & 13
OWN 17
+43
48.0%
Patrick Rea punt for 43 yds , Jordan Smith returns for no gain to the NMSU 40 , returns for no gain to the NMSU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:3660% → 52%
Q3 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
40.2%
Fred Robertson run for 3 yds to the NMSU 37Similar
Q3 6:52
2ND & 7
OPP 37
-6
40.2%
Evan Bullock run for a loss of 6 yards to the NMSU 43 Jessie Evans fumbled, recovered by LT Evan Bullock E. Bullock return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q3 6:52
3RD & 13
OPP 43
0
43.3%
Evan Bullock pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:16
4TH & 13
OPP 43
0
47.7%
Patrick Rea punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:3648% → 47%
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
48.1%
Seth McGowan run for 3 yds to the NMSU 28Similar
Q3 5:16
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
48.2%
Seth McGowan run for 2 yds to the NMSU 30Similar
Q3 5:16
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
47.2%
AWAD, Parker pass deep to the right incomplete intended for DAVID, Kordell thrown to the TECH45. PENALTY Before the snap, NMSU Illegal Formation on DAVID, Kordell TECH Pass Interference on WOODS, Cedric , Offsetting penalties [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 5:16
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
47.2%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:40
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
46.5%
George Eberle punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Solo Lewis at the LT 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 19FG
15 plays · 46 yds · 6:2953% → 59%
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
47.5%
Amani Givins run for 9 yds to the LT 40Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 1
OWN 40
-1
45.0%
Jimmy Holiday run for a loss of 1 yard to the LT 39Similar
Q3 3:40
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+6
45.3%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Hunter Tipton for 6 yds to the LT 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
49.2%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Solo Lewis for 7 yds to the NMSU 48Similar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 3
OPP 48
-10
46.9%
Louisiana Tech Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the LT 42Similar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 13
OWN 42
-2
52.3%
Evan Bullock run for a loss of 2 yards to the LT 40Similar
Q3 1:15
3RD & 15
OWN 40
+19
54.0%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Tru Edwards for 19 yds to the NMSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
48.6%
Evan Bullock pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+6
48.8%
Amani Givins run for 6 yds to the NMSU 35Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+5
48.4%
Marlion Jackson run for 5 yds to the NMSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
46.9%
Amani Givins run for 2 yds to the NMSU 28Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 28
0
46.3%
Evan Bullock pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 28
+5
49.3%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Eli Finley for 5 yds to the NMSU 23Similar
Q4 12:11
4TH & 3
OPP 23
+41
40.7%
Buck Buchanan 41 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:3048% → 48%
Q4 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
47.8%
Seth McGowan run for 10 yds to the NMSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
48.4%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:11
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+7
48.1%
Parker Awad run for 7 yds to the NMSU 42Similar
Q4 12:11
3RD & 3
OWN 42
0
50.5%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:41
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
48.4%
George Eberle punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Solo Lewis at the LT 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 21TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 5:4756% → 91%
Q4 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
44.2%
Omiri Wiggins run for 1 yd to the LT 21Similar
Q4 10:41
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+1
44.6%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Omiri Wiggins for 1 yd to the LT 22Similar
Q4 10:41
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+32
46.5%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Jay Wilkerson for 32 yds to the NMSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
38.8%
New Mexico State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Josiah Charles) to the NMSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
37.0%
Fred Robertson run for 1 yd to the NMSU 29Similar
Q4 10:41
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+5
37.2%
Fred Robertson run for 5 yds to the NMSU 24Similar
Q4 10:41
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+1
38.5%
Amani Givins run for 1 yd to the NMSU 23Similar
Q4 10:41
4TH & 3
OPP 23
+3
41.5%
Jimmy Holiday run for 3 yds to the NMSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
36.3%
Amani Givins run for 5 yds to the NMSU 15Similar
Q4 4:54
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+15
9.2%
Tru Edwards 15 Yd pass from Evan Bullock (Buck Buchanan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 22TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:1318% → 66%
Q4 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
18.3%
Brandon Nunez run for 2 yds to the NMSU 27Similar
Q4 4:54
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
18.5%
Brandon Nunez pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:54
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+10
17.2%
Brandon Nunez pass complete to Kordell David for 10 yds to the NMSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
19.7%
Seth McGowan run for 9 yds to the NMSU 46Similar
Q4 4:54
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+4
22.8%
Brandon Nunez pass complete to TJ Pride for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:54
1ST & 10
50
+5
22.5%
Mike Washington run for 5 yds to the LT 45Similar
Q4 4:54
2ND & 5
OPP 45
0
23.5%
Brandon Nunez pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+19
15.0%
Brandon Nunez pass complete to Hunter Talley for 19 yds to the LT 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+9
20.8%
Brandon Nunez run for 9 yds to the LT 4Similar
Q4 1:41
2ND & 1
OPP 4
+4
65.8%
Brandon Nunez run for 4 yds for a TD (Abraham Montano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 23MISSED FG
14 plays · 66 yds · 1:3851% → 54%
Q4 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
49.3%
Omiri Wiggins run for 10 yds to the LT 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
47.6%
Evan Bullock pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:21
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-5
48.3%
Evan Bullock sacked by Kale Edwards for a loss of 5 yards to the LT 30Similar
Q4 1:21
3RD & 15
OWN 30
+17
51.8%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Tru Edwards for 17 yds to the LT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
42.7%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Jimmy Holiday for 5 yds to the NMSU 48Similar
Q4 1:21
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+22
40.6%
Omiri Wiggins run for 22 yds to the NMSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+11
36.1%
Amani Givins run for 11 yds to the NMSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
36.7%
Amani Givins run for 3 yds to the NMSU 12Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+3
36.7%
Omiri Wiggins run for 3 yds to the NMSU 9Similar
Q4 0:03
3RD & 4
OPP 9
0
42.3%
Evan Bullock pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:03
4TH & 4
OPP 9
+27
46.5%
Buck Buchanan 27 yd FG BLOCKED blocked bySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 24FG
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:0066% → 79%
OT 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+6
65.6%
Brandon Nunez run for 6 yds to the LT 17Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 17
-3
63.2%
Seth McGowan run for a loss of 3 yards to the LT 20Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 0
OWN 0
+38
79.0%
Abraham Montano 38 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 25FG
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0029% → 50%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
71.4%
Evan Bullock pass incompleteSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+6
73.4%
Omiri Wiggins run for 6 yds to the NMSU 19Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 19
0
76.7%
Evan Bullock pass incompleteSimilar
OT 0:00
4TH & 4
OPP 19
+37
50.3%
Buck Buchanan 37 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 26FG
1 play · 7 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
41.1%
Omiri Wiggins run for 3 yds to the NMSU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 27TD
1 play · 25 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
OT2 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
85.2%
Mike Washington 4 Yd Run for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:41
Brandon Nunez run for 4 yds for a TD (Abraham Montano KICK)
+45
TD · OT2 0:00
Mike Washington 4 Yd Run for a TD
+44.1
TD · Q4 4:54
Tru Edwards 15 Yd pass from Evan Bullock (Buck Buchanan Kick)
-27.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com