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TLSA

Tulsa 23 at Louisiana Tech 20

LT
2024 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2024 · Joe Aillet Stadium
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Win probability · LT
modelLT aheadTLSA aheadconfidence bandkey playLT scoreTLSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDTDFGTDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:34 · Patrick Rea punt for 39 yds , Kamdyn Benjamin returns for no gain to the TLSA 29 , returns for no gain to the TLSA 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+25.0+12.50−12.5−25.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 91Home team on offense−2.8Score differential−1.1Garbage-time factor−1.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5Time remaining−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 0:03: Kirk Francis pass complete to Corey Smith for 38 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK) — TLSA win probability +21.1 pts (now 78%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 12:08: Blake Baker run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — LT win probability +17.3 pts (now 45%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  3. TD · Q4 3:14: Evan Bullock pass complete to Eli Finley for 24 yds for a TD (Buck Buchanan KICK) — LT win probability +45.2 pts (now 80%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 0:32: Seth Morgan 45 yd FG GOOD — TLSA win probability +22.9 pts (now 56%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  5. FG · OT 0:00: Seth Morgan 34 yd FG GOOD — TLSA win probability +29.1 pts (now 88%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LT made the numbers' call on 7 of 10TLSA made the numbers' call on 8 of 12
  1. Q1 14:24LT 4th & 10 at LT 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.7%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:58TLSA 4th & 6 at LT 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 42.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    42.1%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    42.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:54TLSA 4th & 2 at TLSA 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 42.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.3%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:21LT 4th & 12 at LT 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%−0.4
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:23TLSA 4th & 25 at TLSA 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.5%−2.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:50LT 4th & 1 at TLSA 1, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    48.7%−2.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    42.2%−9.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:52TLSA 4th & 4 at TLSA 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.9%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:24LT 4th & 17 at LT 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.8%−1.6
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:50TLSA 4th & 3 at LT 14, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.3%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.7%−0.5
    84% to make
    Punt
    39.4%−5.9
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:41LT 4th & 7 at TLSA 43, down 3
    Close callPunted · 53.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    52.2%−0.9
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    52.5%−0.6
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:30TLSA 4th & 5 at TLSA 33, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.3%−1.7
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:53TLSA 4th & 8 at TLSA 27, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.3%−1.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:34LT 4th & 8 at LT 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.7%−1.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.2%
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:49TLSA 4th & 15 at TLSA 47, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.5%−3.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.6%
    average punt
  15. Q3 6:20LT 4th & 1 at TLSA 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    47.9%−4.0
    average punt
  16. Q3 5:50TLSA 4th & 10 at TLSA 47, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.4%−1.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.3%
    average punt
  17. Q3 3:18LT 4th & 4 at LT 46, down 3
    Close callPunted · 49.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.3%−0.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 10:13TLSA 4th & 3 at TLSA 32, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.9%−0.4
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.3%
    average punt
  19. Q4 8:03LT 4th & 17 at TLSA 49, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.5%−3.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.6%
    average punt
  20. Q4 5:04TLSA 4th & 3 at TLSA 38, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 72.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.8%−1.7
    average punt
  21. Q4 3:14LT 4th & 4 at TLSA 24, down 4
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.2 ptsWent for it · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.5%−2.2
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    31.6%
    68% to make
    Punt
    16.8%−14.8
    average punt
  22. Q4 0:32TLSA 4th & 1 at LT 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.6%−3.9
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.5%
    62% to make
    Punt
    8.5%−21.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LT made the numbers' call on 2 of 3TLSA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 4:05TLSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:50LT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 0:03TLSA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 12:08LT Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    39.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    39.3%−0.5
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 3:14LT Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.8%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LTDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2949% → 49%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
49.3%
Jack Turner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
49.3%
Jack Turner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:53
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
49.3%
Jack Turner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:24
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
49.4%
Patrick Rea punt for 14 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2651% → 50%
Q1 14:24
1ST & 10
50
-4
49.4%
Lloyd Avant run for a loss of 4 yards to the TLSA 46Similar
Q1 13:57
2ND & 14
OWN 46
0
49.5%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 14
OWN 46
+8
49.5%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Lloyd Avant for 8 yds to the LT 46Similar
Q1 12:58
4TH & 6
OPP 46
0
49.6%
Angus Davies punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Cedric Woods at the LT 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 3FUMBLE
7 plays · 56 yds · 3:1350% → 51%
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+1
49.7%
Jack Turner run for 1 yd to the LT 6Similar
Q1 12:23
2ND & 9
OWN 6
+2
49.8%
Jack Turner pass complete to Tru Edwards for 2 yds to the LT 8Similar
Q1 11:38
3RD & 7
OWN 8
+15
49.7%
(11:38) TURNER, Jack pass deep to the right incomplete intended for WILKERSON, Jay thrown to the LATECH34, clock 11:34. PENALTY TULSA Pass Interference on PARKER, Keuan enforced 15 yards to the LATECH23 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
50.0%
Omiri Wiggins run for 7 yds to the LT 30Similar
Q1 10:53
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+6
50.3%
Omiri Wiggins run for 6 yds to the LT 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+14
50.4%
Jack Turner pass complete to Omiri Wiggins for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
50
+11
50.9%
Omiri Wiggins run for 11 yds to the TLSA 39 Omiri Wiggins fumbled, recovered by TLSA Malachai Jones M. Jones return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4350% → 50%
Q1 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
49.9%
Lloyd Avant run for 3 yds to the TLSA 42Similar
Q1 9:19
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+3
49.8%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Zion Steptoe for 3 yds to the TLSA 45Similar
Q1 8:38
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+2
49.8%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Lloyd Avant for 2 yds to the TLSA 47Similar
Q1 7:54
4TH & 2
OWN 47
0
50.2%
Angus Davies punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Cedric Woods at the LT 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:4051% → 50%
Q1 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
50.5%
Jack Turner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:39
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+3
50.4%
Donerio Davenport run for 3 yds to the LT 13Similar
Q1 7:02
3RD & 7
OWN 13
-5
50.1%
Jack Turner sacked by R.J. Jackson Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the LT 8Similar
Q1 6:21
4TH & 12
OWN 8
0
50.0%
Patrick Rea punt for 32 ydsSimilar
Q1 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
49.7%
(06:11) FRANCIS, Kirk pass up the middle complete for 30 yards to BENJAMIN, Kamdyn caught at the LATECH28 and advanced to the LATECH10 (THOMPSON, Blake;WOODS, Cedric), clock 06:09. PENALTY TULSA Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on YOUNG BEAR, Walter enforced 5 yards from the LATECH40 to the LATECH45 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 6TD
5 plays · 40 yds · 1:4550% → 54%
Q1 5:50
1ST & 15
OPP 45
+4
50.1%
Anthony Watkins run for 4 yds to the LT 41Similar
Q1 5:32
2ND & 11
OPP 41
+13
49.8%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 13 yds to the LT 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
49.4%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:49
2ND & 10
OPP 28
-2
49.5%
Anthony Watkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the LT 30Similar
Q1 4:05
3RD & 12
OPP 30
+30
45.7%
Anthony Watkins run for 30 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 7INT
7 plays · 23 yds · 2:1747% → 45%
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
47.0%
Donerio Davenport run for 9 yds to the LT 38Similar
Q1 3:22
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+1
47.8%
Donerio Davenport run for 1 yd to the LT 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
47.1%
Blake Baker run for no gain to the LT 39Similar
Q1 2:10
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+13
46.5%
Blake Baker pass complete to Hunter Tipton for 13 yds to the TLSA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
47.5%
Blake Baker pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-10
47.3%
Blake Baker pass intercepted NuNu Campbell return for 10 yds to the TLSA 48Similar
Q1 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-10
44.5%
(01:37) JACKSON, Bill rush to the right for a gain of 2 yards to the TULSA50 (BLAY, David;GRIFFIN-TAYLOR, Demarcus), clock 01:33. PENALTY TULSA Holding on BURNETT, Reynard enforced 10 yards from the TULSA48 to the TULSA38 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 8PUNT
6 plays · -15 yds · 1:5455% → 54%
Q1 1:17
1ST & 20
OWN 38
0
45.1%
Bill Jackson run for no gain to the TLSA 38Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 20
OWN 38
-5
45.1%
Tulsa Penalty, False Start (Kamdyn Benjamin) to the TLSA 33Similar
Q1 0:40
2ND & 25
OWN 33
+1
45.4%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Bill Jackson for 1 yd to the TLSA 34Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 24
OWN 34
-5
45.7%
Tulsa Penalty, False Start (Braylin Presley) to the TLSA 29Similar
Q2 14:58
3RD & 29
OWN 29
+4
45.7%
Bill Jackson run for 4 yds to the TLSA 33Similar
Q2 14:23
4TH & 25
OWN 33
+49
45.8%
Angus Davies punt for 41 yds , Cedric Woods returns for 49 yds to the TLSA 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 9TD
5 plays · 25 yds · 2:1548% → 53%
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+19
47.9%
Fred Robertson run for 19 yds to the TLSA 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
47.8%
Blake Baker run for 4 yds to the TLSA 2Similar
Q2 13:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
47.8%
Blake Baker run for 1 yd to the TLSA 1Similar
Q2 12:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
46.9%
Hunter Tipton run for no gain to the TLSA 1Similar
Q2 11:50
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
53.3%
Jimmy Holiday run for 1 yd for a TD (Buck Buchanan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5549% → 48%
Q2 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
51.3%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Lloyd Avant for 5 yds to the TLSA 30Similar
Q2 11:26
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
50.9%
Lloyd Avant run for 1 yd to the TLSA 31Similar
Q2 10:59
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
51.5%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:52
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
52.5%
Angus Davies punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Tru Edwards at the LT 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 1:2153% → 52%
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
53.1%
Fred Robertson run for no gain to the LT 32Similar
Q2 10:14
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-7
53.0%
Blake Baker sacked by Gavin Potter for a loss of 7 yards to the LT 25Similar
Q2 9:32
3RD & 17
OWN 25
0
52.0%
Blake Baker pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:24
4TH & 17
OWN 25
+26
51.5%
Patrick Rea punt for 43 yds , Kamdyn Benjamin returns for 26 yds to the LT 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 12FG
10 plays · 28 yds · 4:2351% → 53%
Q2 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
49.2%
Kirk Francis run for 8 yds to the LT 34Similar
Q2 8:43
2ND & 2
OPP 34
-1
48.4%
Anthony Watkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the LT 35Similar
Q2 8:07
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+3
48.3%
Anthony Watkins run for 3 yds to the LT 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
47.4%
Bill Jackson run for 2 yds to the LT 30Similar
Q2 6:48
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+9
47.1%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 9 yds to the LT 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-5
47.1%
(06:27) JACKSON, Bill rush to the left for a gain of 2 yards to the LATECH19 (BLAY, David), clock 06:24. PENALTY Before the snap, TULSA Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the LATECH21 to the LATECH26. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:02
1ST & 15
OPP 26
+8
47.7%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 8 yds to the LT 18Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 7
OPP 18
0
47.0%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:20
3RD & 7
OPP 18
+4
48.0%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 4 yds to the LT 14Similar
Q2 4:50
4TH & 3
OPP 14
+32
46.8%
Seth Morgan 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 13PUNT
10 plays · 36 yds · 2:5848% → 50%
Q2 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
48.2%
Blake Baker pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:35
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+8
48.1%
Donerio Davenport run for 8 yds to the LT 29Similar
Q2 4:01
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+2
47.8%
Donerio Davenport run for 2 yds to the LT 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
48.6%
Donerio Davenport run for 12 yds to the LT 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
50.6%
Blake Baker pass complete to Donerio Davenport for 11 yds to the TLSA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
51.3%
Fred Robertson run for no gain to the TLSA 46Similar
Q2 2:03
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+3
51.1%
Fred Robertson run for 3 yds to the TLSA 43Similar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 7
OPP 43
0
50.6%
Donerio Davenport run for no gain to the TLSA 43Similar
Q2 1:41
4TH & 7
OPP 43
0
50.1%
Patrick Rea punt for 34 yds, downed at the TLSA 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 1:0352% → 52%
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
48.1%
Anthony Watkins run for 2 yds to the TLSA 11Similar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 8
OWN 11
+17
47.2%
Anthony Watkins run for 17 yds to the TLSA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
46.6%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
46.9%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:36
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+5
47.6%
Viron Ellison Jr. run for 5 yds to the TLSA 33Similar
Q2 0:30
4TH & 5
OWN 33
0
48.0%
Angus Davies punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · -3 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-3
49.2%
Blake Baker pass complete to Donerio Davenport for a loss of 3 yards to the LT 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:0054% → 52%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
46.0%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Lloyd Avant for 3 yds to the TLSA 28Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-1
45.6%
Lloyd Avant run for a loss of 1 yard to the TLSA 27Similar
Q3 13:58
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
47.0%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:53
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
48.2%
Angus Davies punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1548% → 45%
Q3 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-6
47.8%
Jack Turner sacked by R.J. Jackson Jr. and Myles Jackson for a loss of 6 yards to the LT 28Similar
Q3 13:17
2ND & 16
OWN 28
+8
46.8%
Jack Turner pass complete to Tru Edwards for 8 yds to the LT 36Similar
Q3 12:45
3RD & 8
OWN 36
0
46.5%
Jack Turner pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:34
4TH & 8
OWN 36
+39
45.2%
Patrick Rea punt for 39 yds , Kamdyn Benjamin returns for no gain to the TLSA 29 , returns for no gain to the TLSA 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:4355% → 54%
Q3 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
45.5%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Anthony Watkins for 4 yds to the TLSA 33Similar
Q3 12:04
2ND & 6
OWN 33
0
45.1%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:02
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+19
46.2%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 19 yds to the LT 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
43.3%
Anthony Watkins run for no gain to the LT 48Similar
Q3 11:09
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-11
43.3%
Kirk Francis sacked by J'Dan Burnett for a loss of 11 yards to the TLSA 41Similar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 21
OWN 41
+6
46.3%
Anthony Watkins run for 6 yds to the TLSA 47Similar
Q3 9:49
4TH & 15
OWN 47
0
46.3%
Angus Davies punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 19DOWNS
8 plays · 38 yds · 3:1946% → 49%
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
46.4%
Omiri Wiggins run for 2 yds to the LT 17Similar
Q3 9:13
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+10
46.4%
Jack Turner pass complete to Omiri Wiggins for 10 yds to the LT 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
46.9%
Jack Turner pass complete to Tru Edwards for 1 yd to the LT 28Similar
Q3 8:01
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+15
46.8%
Tulsa Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Chris Thompson) to the LT 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
50.0%
Jimmy Holiday run for 9 yds to the TLSA 47Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 1
OPP 47
0
51.3%
Jack Turner pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:57
3RD & 1
OPP 47
0
50.4%
Omiri Wiggins run for no gain to the TLSA 47Similar
Q3 6:20
4TH & 1
OPP 47
0
48.6%
Marlion Jackson run for no gain to the TLSA 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2459% → 54%
Q3 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
41.3%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:06
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
41.4%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:59
3RD & 10
OWN 47
0
42.8%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:50
4TH & 10
OWN 47
0
45.8%
Angus Davies punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Tru Edwards at the LT 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:2947% → 47%
Q3 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
46.8%
Jack Turner pass complete to Tru Edwards for 4 yds to the LT 33Similar
Q3 5:17
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+7
47.5%
Fred Robertson run for 7 yds to the LT 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
49.7%
Jack Turner run for 4 yds to the LT 44Similar
Q3 3:59
2ND & 6
OWN 44
0
50.3%
Jack Turner pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:59
3RD & 6
OWN 44
-5
48.4%
Louisiana Tech Penalty, False Start (Hayden Christman) to the LT 39Similar
Q3 3:57
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+2
48.4%
Jack Turner pass complete to Omiri Wiggins for 2 yds to the LT 46Similar
Q3 3:56
3RD & 11
OWN 39
+5
45.5%
Tulsa Penalty, Offsides (Owen Ostroski) to the LT 44Similar
Q3 3:18
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
47.1%
Patrick Rea punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Kamdyn Benjamin at the TLSA 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 22TD
6 plays · 85 yds · 3:1257% → 78%
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
43.1%
Bill Jackson run for 3 yds to the TLSA 18Similar
Q3 2:39
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+21
42.9%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 21 yds to the TLSA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
40.0%
Bill Jackson run for 5 yds to the TLSA 44Similar
Q3 1:14
2ND & 5
OWN 44
-10
39.5%
(01:14) JACKSON, Bill rush to the left for no gain to the TULSA44, End of Play, clock 01:11. PENALTY TULSA Holding on HALL, Ethan enforced 10 yards from the TULSA44 to the TULSA34 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 0:52
2ND & 15
OWN 34
+28
42.8%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Luke McGary for 28 yds to the LT 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
21.7%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Corey Smith for 38 yds for a TD (Seth Morgan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 23TD
7 plays · 79 yds · 2:5024% → 45%
Q4 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-8
23.6%
Blake Baker sacked by Amieh Williams for a loss of 8 yards to the LT 13Similar
Q4 14:34
2ND & 18
OWN 13
+14
23.2%
Blake Baker pass complete to Eli Finley for 14 yds to the LT 27Similar
Q4 14:05
3RD & 4
OWN 27
+53
22.0%
Blake Baker pass complete to Eli Finley for 53 yds to the TLSA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+19
28.0%
Blake Baker pass complete to Solo Lewis for 19 yds to the TLSA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
27.6%
Blake Baker run for no gain to the TLSA 1Similar
Q4 12:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
27.3%
Blake Baker run for no gain to the TLSA 1Similar
Q4 12:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
44.6%
Blake Baker run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:5266% → 66%
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
34.5%
Lloyd Avant run for 1 yd to the TLSA 26Similar
Q4 11:26
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-1
34.2%
Lloyd Avant run for a loss of 1 yard to the TLSA 25Similar
Q4 10:53
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+7
34.1%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Corey Smith for 7 yds to the TLSA 32Similar
Q4 10:13
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+21
34.4%
Angus Davies punt for 42 yds , Solo Lewis returns for 21 yds to the LT 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:5944% → 36%
Q4 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
43.8%
Fred Robertson run for 11 yds to the TLSA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
44.3%
Fred Robertson run for a loss of 1 yard to the TLSA 43Similar
Q4 8:59
2ND & 11
OPP 43
-10
43.3%
BAKER, Blake pass deep up the middle complete for 43 yards to LEWIS, Solo caught at the TULSA13 and advanced to the TULSA0, TOUCHDOWN LATECH, score nullified by penalty, clock 08:59 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY LATECH Illegal use of the hands on KEYS, Daniel enforced 10 yards from the TULSA43 to the LATECH47 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 8:56
2ND & 21
OWN 47
-2
39.8%
Blake Baker run for a loss of 2 yards to the LT 45Similar
Q4 8:36
3RD & 23
OWN 45
+6
37.3%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Tru Edwards for 6 yds to the TLSA 49Similar
Q4 8:03
4TH & 17
OPP 49
0
36.1%
Patrick Rea punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Kamdyn Benjamin at the TLSA 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 26PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 2:5069% → 73%
Q4 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
30.8%
Anthony Watkins run for 1 yd to the TLSA 15Similar
Q4 7:13
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+16
28.5%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Anthony Watkins for 16 yds to the TLSA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
26.6%
Lloyd Avant run for 2 yds to the TLSA 33Similar
Q4 5:53
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+5
25.4%
Lloyd Avant run for 5 yds to the TLSA 38Similar
Q4 5:08
3RD & 3
OWN 38
0
23.7%
Kirk Francis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:04
4TH & 3
OWN 38
0
26.7%
Angus Davies punt for 40 yds , Solo Lewis returns for no gain to the TLSA 38 Tulsa Penalty, Illegal Formation (Myles Jackson) to the TLSA 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 27TD
6 plays · 43 yds · 1:3739% → 80%
Q4 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+13
39.2%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Solo Lewis for 13 yds to the TLSA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
41.5%
Donerio Davenport run for no gain to the TLSA 30Similar
Q4 3:59
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
41.3%
Evan Bullock pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:54
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+6
38.1%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Donerio Davenport for 6 yds to the TLSA 24Similar
Q4 3:14
4TH & 4
OPP 24
+24
80.3%
Evan Bullock pass complete to Eli Finley for 24 yds for a TD (Buck Buchanan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 28FG
11 plays · 48 yds · 2:4232% → 56%
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
68.4%
Tulsa Penalty, Delay Of Game (Kirk Francis) to the TLSA 20Similar
Q4 3:11
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+20
68.8%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Luke McGary for 20 yds to the TLSA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
66.6%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Bill Jackson for a loss of 1 yard to the TLSA 39Similar
Q4 2:13
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+4
71.0%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Viron Ellison Jr. for 4 yds to the TLSA 43Similar
Q4 1:55
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+10
71.3%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Bill Jackson for 10 yds to the LT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
66.3%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Corey Smith for 11 yds to the LT 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
66.0%
Kirk Francis run for 3 yds to the LT 33Similar
Q4 1:23
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+5
62.7%
Bill Jackson run for 5 yds to the LT 28Similar
Q4 1:12
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+1
67.0%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 1 yd to the LT 27Similar
Q4 0:32
4TH & 1
OPP 27
+45
44.0%
Seth Morgan 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 29Uncategorized
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:1461% → 58%
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
60.7%
Marlion Jackson run for 3 yds to the LT 43Similar
Q4 0:20
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
61.7%
Evan Bullock pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:11
3RD & 7
OWN 43
-10
57.5%
(00:11) BULLOCK, Evan pass deep to the left complete for 23 yards to FINLEY, Eli caught at the TULSA34 and advanced to the TULSA34 (POTTER, Gavin;HODGE, Dayne), clock 00:00. PENALTY LATECH Holding on CHRISTMAN, Hayden enforced 10 yards from the LATECH43 to the LATECH33 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 30FUMBLE
2 plays · -10 yds · 0:0066% → 65%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
65.6%
Donerio Davenport run for a loss of 1 yard to the TLSA 26Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 26
-9
65.4%
Evan Bullock sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the LT 1 Evan Bullock fumbled, recovered by TLSA Owen Ostroski , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 31FG
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:0059% → 88%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+17
41.1%
Bill Jackson run for 17 yds to the LT 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-6
41.1%
Kirk Francis pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for a loss of 6 yards to the LT 14Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 16
+34
12.0%
Seth Morgan 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:14
Evan Bullock pass complete to Eli Finley for 24 yds for a TD (Buck Buchanan KICK)
+45.2
FG · OT 0:00
Seth Morgan 34 yd FG GOOD
-29.1
FG · Q4 0:32
Seth Morgan 45 yd FG GOOD
-22.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com