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NICH

Nicholls 17 at Louisiana Tech 25

LT
2024 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2024 · Joe Aillet Stadium
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Win probability · LT
modelLT aheadNICH aheadconfidence bandkey playLT scoreNICH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4SAFETYTDTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:23 · Kylan Dupre punt for 47 yds , Tru Edwards returns for 34 yds to the NICH 16
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+28.0+14.00−14.0−28.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 60Pregame prior+14.2Home team on offense+2.9Garbage-time factor+0.1Score differential−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:27: Blake Baker pass complete to Marlion Jackson for 14 yds for a TD (Buck Buchanan PAT BLOCKED) — LT win probability +5.0 pts (now 78%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:56: Gabe Showalter 38 yd FG GOOD — NICH win probability +1.7 pts (now 26%) (top driver: NICH has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 12:41: Buck Buchanan 24 yd FG GOOD — LT win probability +9.2 pts (now 87%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:12: Jimmy Holiday run for 6 yds for a TD (Buck Buchanan KICK) — LT win probability +5.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:17: Pat McQuaide pass complete to Quincy Brown for 27 yds for a TD (Ray Vallee KICK) — NICH win probability +11.7 pts (now 16%) (top driver: NICH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LT made the numbers' call on 6 of 8NICH made the numbers' call on 8 of 13
  1. Q1 13:09LT 4th & 12 at LT 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.1%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:29NICH 4th & 15 at LT 18, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.3%−0.6
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.9%
    79% to make
    Punt
    45.2%−1.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:00LT 4th & 8 at NICH 42, up 2
    Close callPunted · 52.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.0%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    52.8%−0.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    53.0%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:26NICH 4th & 5 at NICH 25, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.6%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:05LT 4th & 3 at LT 30, up 2
    Close callPunted · 53.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.2%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:23NICH 4th & 9 at NICH 3, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.1%−1.6
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:11NICH 4th & 15 at NICH 20, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.8%−2.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:33NICH 4th & 1 at LT 1, down 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.8%−3.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    21.6%−11.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:56NICH 4th & 10 at LT 21, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.5%−2.0
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.5%
    74% to make
    Punt
    25.5%−7.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:41NICH 4th & 9 at NICH 26, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.0%−2.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:41LT 4th & 10 at LT 29, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.9%−1.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:03NICH 4th & 5 at LT 43, down 5
    Close callPunted · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.1%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    37.8%−2.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    39.2%−0.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:30LT 4th & 7 at LT 9, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.2%−1.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.3%
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:41NICH 4th & 11 at LT 38, down 5
    Close callPunted · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.3%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    36.5%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    36.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:43NICH 4th & 8 at NICH 42, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.4%−2.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:41LT 4th & 7 at NICH 7, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.8%−1.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.9%
    91% to make
    Punt
    57.1%−14.8
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:30NICH 4th & 2 at NICH 33, down 8
    Close callPunted · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.9%−0.7
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:07NICH 4th & 4 at NICH 31, down 15
    Close callPunted · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.1%−0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:07LT 4th & 11 at LT 32, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.6%−0.7
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.3%
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:55LT 4th & 15 at LT 49, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.8%−0.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.4%
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:36NICH 4th & 10 at NICH 19, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.0%
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.3%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3NICH made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 11:22NICH Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:14LT Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:27LT Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    64.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 7:12LT Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.0%−0.5
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:17NICH Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.0%−0.6
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LTDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 1:4771% → 71%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
71.4%
Jack Turner run for 2 yds to the LT 20Similar
Q1 14:28
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+11
71.3%
Jack Turner pass complete to Eli Finley for 11 yds to the LT 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
71.3%
Louisiana Tech Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the LT 26Similar
Q1 13:53
1ST & 15
OWN 26
+3
71.2%
Donerio Davenport run for 3 yds to the LT 29Similar
Q1 13:19
2ND & 12
OWN 29
0
71.1%
Jack Turner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:15
3RD & 12
OWN 29
0
71.1%
Jack Turner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:09
4TH & 12
OWN 29
0
71.0%
Patrick Rea punt for 70 yds, downed at the NICH 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 2SF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
71.3%
Team SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 3INT TD
3 plays · -7 yds · 1:2771% → 70%
Q1 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-4
71.3%
Marquis Crosby run for a loss of 4 yards to the LT 33Similar
Q1 12:13
2ND & 14
OWN 33
-3
71.1%
Jack Turner sacked by Kershawn Fisher for a loss of 3 yards to the LT 30Similar
Q1 11:22
3RD & 17
OWN 30
-25
70.1%
Jack Turner pass intercepted Rasheed Lovelace return for 25 yds for a TD (Ray Vallee KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 4TD
3 plays · 59 yds · 0:5871% → 72%
Q1 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
70.5%
Jack Turner pass complete to Solo Lewis for 8 yds to the LT 49Similar
Q1 10:52
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+23
70.5%
Jack Turner pass complete to Marlion Jackson for 23 yds to the NICH 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
71.6%
Jack Turner pass complete to Solo Lewis for 28 yds for a TD (Buck Buchanan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 5MISSED FG
15 plays · 57 yds · 5:4029% → 29%
Q1 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
70.9%
Jaylon Spears run for a loss of 6 yards to the NICH 19Similar
Q1 9:38
2ND & 16
OWN 19
0
70.9%
Pat McQuaide pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:36
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+29
71.2%
Pat McQuaide pass complete to Jaylon Spears for 29 yds to the NICH 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
70.4%
Pat McQuaide run for no gain to the NICH 48Similar
Q1 7:57
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+19
70.4%
Pat McQuaide pass complete to Quincy Brown for 19 yds to the LT 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-10
69.9%
(07:24) SPEARS, Jaylon rush to the left for a gain of 5 yards to the LAT28 (MCELVANE, Isaiah), clock 07:21. PENALTY NIC Holding on HEBB, Nathan enforced 10 yards from the LAT33 to the LAT43 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 7:08
1ST & 20
OPP 43
-7
70.3%
Pat McQuaide sacked by Jessie Evans for a loss of 7 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 6:31
2ND & 27
50
+17
70.4%
Pat McQuaide pass complete to Quincy Brown for 17 yds to the LT 33Similar
Q1 6:02
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+20
69.9%
Pat McQuaide pass complete to Terry Matthews for 20 yds to the LT 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
69.5%
Collin Guggenheim run for 5 yds to the LT 8Similar
Q1 5:03
2ND & 5
OPP 8
0
69.4%
Pat McQuaide pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:57
3RD & 5
OPP 8
-10
69.7%
(04:57) MCQUAIDE, Pat pass to the right complete for 7 yards to GUGGENHEIM, Collin caught at the LAT1 and advanced to the LAT1 (GRIFFIN-TAYLOR, Demarcus;FIELDS, Kolbe), clock 04:56. PENALTY NIC Holding on ROUSSEL, Evan enforced 10 yards from the LAT8 to the LAT18 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 4:37
3RD & 15
OPP 18
0
70.1%
Pat McQuaide pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:29
4TH & 15
OPP 18
+35
70.7%
Ray Vallee 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 38 yds · 2:2471% → 71%
Q1 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
70.7%
Jimmy Holiday run for 3 yds to the LT 23Similar
Q1 3:53
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
70.6%
Jack Turner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:53
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+12
71.0%
Blake Baker pass complete to Jimmy Holiday for 12 yds to the LT 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+21
71.5%
Blake Baker pass complete to Jimmy Holiday for 21 yds to the NICH 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
72.4%
Blake Baker run for a loss of 2 yards to the NICH 46Similar
Q1 2:42
2ND & 12
OPP 46
+4
71.9%
Blake Baker pass complete to Donerio Davenport for 4 yds to the NICH 42Similar
Q1 2:04
3RD & 8
OPP 42
0
71.4%
Blake Baker pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:00
4TH & 8
OPP 42
0
70.6%
Patrick Rea punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:2729% → 28%
Q1 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
70.6%
Jaylon Spears run for 5 yds to the NICH 25Similar
Q1 1:17
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
70.3%
Pat McQuaide pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:14
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
72.0%
Nicholls Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jackson Dufrene) declinedSimilar
Q1 0:48
4TH & 5
OWN 25
-47
72.4%
(00:48) DUPRE, Kylan punt 54 yards to the LAT21, LATULAS, Dedrick returned 47 yards to the NIC32 (HEBB, Nathan), clock 00:37. PENALTY LAT Holding on OKEKE, Obinna Before the snap, NIC Illegal Formation , Offsetting penalties [FAKE PUNT]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 0:26
4TH & 5
OWN 25
+60
72.4%
Kylan Dupre punt for 60 yds , Dedrick Latulas returns for no gain to the LT 10 , returns for no gain to the LT 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:1871% → 70%
Q1 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
70.5%
Blake Baker pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:22
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+8
70.4%
Marquis Crosby run for 8 yds to the LT 18Similar
Q2 14:59
3RD & 2
OWN 18
+5
70.0%
Jimmy Holiday run for 5 yds to the LT 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
70.5%
Marquis Crosby run for 5 yds to the LT 28Similar
Q2 13:48
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+2
70.6%
Donerio Davenport run for 2 yds to the LT 30Similar
Q2 13:10
3RD & 3
OWN 30
0
70.1%
Blake Baker pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:05
4TH & 3
OWN 30
0
69.8%
Patrick Rea punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 9FUMBLE
1 play · -3 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-3
71.6%
Pat McQuaide run for a loss of 3 yards to the NICH 21 Pat McQuaide fumbled, recovered by LT Demarcus Griffin-Taylor D. Griffin-Taylor return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 10FUMBLE
3 plays · 19 yds · 1:2272% → 72%
Q2 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
72.4%
Marquis Crosby run for 7 yds to the NICH 14Similar
Q2 12:07
2ND & 3
OPP 14
+3
72.4%
Marquis Crosby run for 3 yds to the NICH 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+9
72.4%
Marquis Crosby run for 9 yds to the NICH 2 Marquis Crosby fumbled, recovered by NICH Eli Ennis E. Ennis return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:5928% → 27%
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
72.3%
Collin Guggenheim run for 2 yds to the NICH 4Similar
Q2 10:48
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+2
72.4%
Collin Guggenheim run for 2 yds to the NICH 6Similar
Q2 10:11
3RD & 6
OWN 6
0
73.0%
Collin Guggenheim run for no gain to the NICH 6Similar
Q2 9:32
4TH & 6
OWN 6
-3
73.3%
(09:32) DUPRE, Kylan punt 31 yards to the NIC37 return muffed by LATULAS, Dedrick at the NIC37, recovered by NIC LOGIUDICE, Dominic at the NIC37, returned 0 yards to the NIC37, End of Play, clock 09:26. PENALTY Before the snap, NIC Illegal Formation enforced half the distance from the goal, 3 yards from the NIC6 to the NIC3. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 9:23
4TH & 9
OWN 3
+34
73.4%
Kylan Dupre punt for 47 yds , Tru Edwards returns for 34 yds to the NICH 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 12TD
2 plays · 16 yds · 0:4073% → 78%
Q2 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
72.6%
Donerio Davenport run for 2 yds to the NICH 14Similar
Q2 8:27
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+14
77.6%
Blake Baker pass complete to Marlion Jackson for 14 yds for a TD (Buck Buchanan PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:1624% → 22%
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
76.4%
Pat McQuaide sacked by Kolbe Fields for a loss of 7 yards to the NICH 18Similar
Q2 7:37
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+2
76.9%
Jaylon Spears run for 2 yds to the NICH 20Similar
Q2 7:12
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
78.0%
Pat McQuaide pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:11
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+42
78.3%
Kylan Dupre punt for 42 yds , Tru Edwards returns for a loss of 1 yard to the LT 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 14MISSED FG
13 plays · 36 yds · 4:2325% → 24%
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
75.4%
Jaylon Spears run for 3 yds to the LT 34Similar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+3
74.4%
Collin Guggenheim run for 3 yds to the LT 31Similar
Q2 5:54
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+5
75.4%
Louisiana Tech Penalty, Offsides (Kells Bush) to the LT 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
74.5%
Pat McQuaide pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:42
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+5
74.7%
Collin Guggenheim run for 5 yds to the LT 21Similar
Q2 5:31
3RD & 5
OPP 21
+7
75.4%
Pat McQuaide pass complete to Christian McNees for 7 yds to the LT 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
75.0%
Collin Guggenheim run for 7 yds to the LT 7Similar
Q2 4:32
2ND & 3
OPP 7
+6
75.1%
Collin Guggenheim run for 6 yds to the LT 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
75.2%
(03:59) MCQUAIDE, Pat pass short to the left incomplete intended for BROWN, Quincy thrown to the LAT0, clock 03:53. PENALTY LAT Pass Interference on RICHARD, Michael enforced half the distance from the goal, 0 yards to the LAT1 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 3:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
75.2%
Collin Guggenheim run for no gain to the LT 1Similar
Q2 3:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
75.3%
Collin Guggenheim run for no gain to the LT 1Similar
Q2 2:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
75.8%
Pat McQuaide pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:33
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+18
76.4%
Ray Vallee 18 Yard Field Goal MissedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 15INT
5 plays · 38 yds · 1:0279% → 80%
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+21
78.8%
Blake Baker run for 21 yds to the LT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
80.2%
Omiri Wiggins run for no gain to the LT 41Similar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+15
79.3%
(01:57) BAKER, Blake pass deep to the left incomplete intended for LEWIS, Solomon thrown to the NIC27, clock 01:51. PENALTY NIC Pass Interference on SULLIVAN JR., Laurence enforced 15 yards to the NIC44 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
80.1%
Donerio Davenport run for 2 yds to the NICH 42Similar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 8
OPP 42
-49
80.2%
Blake Baker pass intercepted Malik Woodery return for 49 yds to the LT 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 16FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2325% → 26%
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
74.6%
Pat McQuaide run for no gain to the LT 21Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
74.9%
Pat McQuaide pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:05
3RD & 10
OPP 21
0
76.1%
Pat McQuaide pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:56
4TH & 10
OPP 21
+38
74.3%
Gabe Showalter 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 17END OF HALF
3 plays · 13 yds · 0:1473% → 74%
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
73.3%
Donerio Davenport run for 10 yds to the LT 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+3
73.5%
Donerio Davenport run for 3 yds to the LT 38Similar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
73.6%
Blake Baker pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:1629% → 27%
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
71.1%
Pat McQuaide run for no gain to the NICH 25Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
71.2%
Collin Guggenheim run for 1 yd to the NICH 26Similar
Q3 13:51
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
72.0%
Pat McQuaide pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:41
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+18
72.8%
Kylan Dupre punt for 63 yds , Tru Edwards returns for 18 yds to the LT 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5273% → 71%
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
73.2%
Blake Baker run for 1 yd to the LT 30Similar
Q3 13:13
2ND & 9
OWN 30
-1
73.2%
Donerio Davenport run for a loss of 1 yard to the LT 29Similar
Q3 12:45
3RD & 10
OWN 29
0
71.6%
Blake Baker pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:41
4TH & 10
OWN 29
0
70.9%
Patrick Rea punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 2:2231% → 31%
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
69.4%
Collin Guggenheim run for 12 yds to the LT 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
67.6%
Collin Guggenheim run for 3 yds to the LT 45Similar
Q3 11:23
2ND & 7
OPP 45
-3
67.5%
Pat McQuaide sacked by Kolbe Fields and Sifa Leota for a loss of 3 yards to the LT 48Similar
Q3 10:54
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+5
69.6%
Pat McQuaide run for 5 yds to the LT 43Similar
Q3 10:03
4TH & 5
OPP 43
0
69.4%
Kylan Dupre punt for 37 yds, downed at the LT 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2772% → 71%
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
72.4%
Blake Baker pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:52
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+1
72.2%
Blake Baker run for 1 yd to the LT 7Similar
Q3 9:14
3RD & 9
OWN 7
+2
71.1%
Donerio Davenport run for 2 yds to the LT 9Similar
Q3 8:30
4TH & 7
OWN 9
+2
70.9%
Patrick Rea punt for 50 yds , Terry Matthews returns for 2 yds to the NICH 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:3931% → 29%
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
68.6%
Louisiana Tech Penalty, Offsides (David Blay) to the NICH 48Similar
Q3 8:13
1ST & 5
OWN 48
+15
67.1%
ALBERT, Marquese rush to the left for a gain of 2 yards to the NIC50 (FIELDS, Kolbe;LEE, Devonta), clock 08:13. PENALTY LAT Personal Foul enforced 15 yards from the NIC48 to the LAT37 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
67.0%
Pat McQuaide pass complete to Marquese Albert for no gain to the LT 37Similar
Q3 7:24
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
67.0%
Pat McQuaide pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:15
3RD & 10
OPP 37
-1
68.3%
Pat McQuaide sacked by Mykol Clark for a loss of 1 yard to the LT 38Similar
Q3 6:41
4TH & 11
OPP 38
0
71.2%
Kylan Dupre punt for 25 yds, fair catch by Tru Edwards at the LT 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 23INT
5 plays · 35 yds · 2:3973% → 75%
Q3 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
73.1%
Dedrick Latulas run for no gain to the LT 13Similar
Q3 6:01
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+5
72.9%
Blake Baker pass complete to Abdul-Fatai Ibrahim for 5 yds to the LT 18Similar
Q3 5:20
3RD & 5
OWN 18
+30
72.0%
Blake Baker pass complete to Fred Robertson for 30 yds to the LT 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
75.6%
Fred Robertson run for no gain to the LT 48Similar
Q3 3:55
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+15
75.2%
Nicholls Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Eli Ennis) to the NICH 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 2:0231% → 28%
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
68.6%
Collin Guggenheim run for 2 yds to the NICH 42Similar
Q3 3:11
2ND & 8
OWN 42
-8
68.4%
Pat McQuaide sacked by Sifa Leota for a loss of 8 yards to the NICH 34Similar
Q3 2:25
3RD & 16
OWN 34
+8
72.4%
Pat McQuaide pass complete to Collin Guggenheim for 8 yds to the NICH 42Similar
Q3 1:43
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
71.7%
Kylan Dupre punt for 44 yds, downed at the LT 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 25FG
10 plays · 79 yds · 3:3473% → 87%
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
73.0%
Blake Baker pass complete to Jay Wilkerson for 5 yds to the LT 19Similar
Q3 1:01
2ND & 5
OWN 19
0
73.1%
Blake Baker pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:54
3RD & 5
OWN 19
+55
71.7%
Blake Baker pass complete to Jay Wilkerson for 55 yds to the NICH 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
77.5%
Blake Baker pass complete to Jay Wilkerson for 4 yds to the NICH 22Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+12
77.5%
Blake Baker pass complete to Eli Finley for 12 yds to the NICH 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
77.6%
Marquis Crosby run for 4 yds to the NICH 6Similar
Q4 13:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
78.8%
Blake Baker sacked by Alex Villavaso for a loss of 1 yard to the NICH 7Similar
Q4 12:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
77.6%
Blake Baker pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
86.8%
Buck Buchanan 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:0916% → 15%
Q4 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
84.5%
Pat McQuaide pass complete to Quincy Brown for 7 yds to the NICH 32Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
82.7%
Collin Guggenheim run for 1 yd to the NICH 33Similar
Q4 11:35
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
84.1%
Pat McQuaide pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:30
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
84.9%
Kylan Dupre punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Tru Edwards at the LT 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 27TD
8 plays · 71 yds · 4:1586% → 97%
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
86.3%
Blake Baker pass complete to Eli Finley for 6 yds to the LT 35Similar
Q4 10:49
2ND & 4
OWN 35
0
87.6%
Blake Baker pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:45
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+39
86.9%
Blake Baker pass complete to Marlion Jackson for 39 yds to the NICH 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
89.5%
Donerio Davenport run for 2 yds to the NICH 24Similar
Q4 9:25
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+6
89.8%
Blake Baker run for 6 yds to the NICH 18Similar
Q4 8:53
3RD & 2
OPP 18
+12
89.4%
Marquis Crosby run for 12 yds to the NICH 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
91.0%
Marquis Crosby run for no gain to the NICH 6Similar
Q4 7:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
96.7%
Jimmy Holiday run for 6 yds for a TD (Buck Buchanan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 28PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:595% → 5%
Q4 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
95.0%
Marquese Albert run for 2 yds to the NICH 27Similar
Q4 6:42
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
94.8%
Pat McQuaide pass complete to Terry Matthews for 4 yds to the NICH 31Similar
Q4 6:13
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
95.1%
Pat McQuaide pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:07
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
95.3%
Kylan Dupre punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Tru Edwards at the LT 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 29PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:5797% → 97%
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
96.8%
Blake Baker run for 4 yds to the LT 37Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 6
OWN 37
0
97.1%
Blake Baker pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:27
3RD & 6
OWN 37
-10
97.2%
Louisiana Tech Penalty, Offensive Holding (Solo Lewis) to the LT 30Similar
Q4 4:54
3RD & 13
OWN 30
+2
96.9%
Omiri Wiggins run for 2 yds to the LT 32Similar
Q4 4:07
4TH & 11
OWN 32
0
97.2%
Patrick Rea punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 30TD
5 plays · 65 yds · 1:454% → 16%
Q4 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
96.2%
Collin Guggenheim run for 13 yds to the NICH 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
96.3%
Collin Guggenheim run for 3 yds to the LT 49Similar
Q4 3:08
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+8
96.3%
Pat McQuaide run for 8 yds to the LT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+14
96.2%
Collin Guggenheim run for 14 yds to the LT 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
84.5%
Pat McQuaide pass complete to Quincy Brown for 27 yds for a TD (Ray Vallee KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 31PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:1695% → 95%
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
95.2%
Jimmy Holiday run for 1 yd to the NICH 45Similar
Q4 2:04
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+2
95.6%
Donerio Davenport run for 2 yds to the NICH 43Similar
Q4 2:01
3RD & 7
OPP 43
-8
95.4%
Blake Baker sacked by Jake Dalmado for a loss of 8 yards to the LT 49Similar
Q4 1:55
4TH & 15
OWN 49
0
95.3%
Patrick Rea punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Terry Matthews at the NICH 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NICHDrive 32DOWNS
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:138% → 5%
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
92.3%
Pat McQuaide pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:46
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
92.5%
Pat McQuaide pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:42
3RD & 10
OWN 19
0
93.1%
Pat McQuaide pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:36
4TH & 10
OWN 19
-6
94.8%
Pat McQuaide sacked by J'Dan Burnett and Zach Zimos for a loss of 6 yards to the NICH 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 33END OF GAME
3 plays · -3 yds · 1:1098% → 98%
Q4 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-1
97.5%
(01:29) [NH] Kneel down by LAT at NIC14 (team loss of 1), clock 01:26.Similar
Q4 1:12
2ND & 11
OPP 14
-1
97.5%
(01:12) [NH] Kneel down by LAT at NIC15 (team loss of 1), clock 00:50.Similar
Q4 0:19
3RD & 12
OPP 15
-1
97.5%
(00:19) [NH] Kneel down by LAT at NIC16 (team loss of 1), clock 00:15.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:17
Pat McQuaide pass complete to Quincy Brown for 27 yds for a TD (Ray Vallee KICK)
-11.7
FG · Q4 12:41
Buck Buchanan 24 yd FG GOOD
+9.2
TD · Q4 7:12
Jimmy Holiday run for 6 yds for a TD (Buck Buchanan KICK)
+5.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com