Try the model
LIB

Liberty 18 at Sam Houston 20

SHSU
2024 · Week 14 · Nov 29, 2024 · Elliott T. Bowers Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · SHSU
modelSHSU aheadLIB aheadconfidence bandkey playSHSU scoreLIB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGSAFETYTDTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:20 · Jadon Cardell punt for 45 yds , Brylan Green returns for 20 yds to the LIB 47
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+25.0+12.50−12.5−25.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 22Home team on offense+0.3Pregame prior−9.2Garbage-time factor+0.1Score differential−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Time remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:14: Simeon Evans 17 Yd pass from Hunter Watson (Christian Pavon Kick) — SHSU win probability +8.5 pts (now 56%) (top driver: SHSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:45: Hunter Watson pass complete to Simeon Evans for 2 yds for a TD (Christian Pavon KICK) — SHSU win probability +10.9 pts (now 68%) (top driver: SHSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:14: Elijah Canion 10 Yd pass from Kaidon Salter (Colin Karhu Kick) — LIB win probability +10.1 pts (now 43%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 5:13: Christian Pavon 38 Yd Field Goal — SHSU win probability +6.9 pts (now 78%) (top driver: SHSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:10: Kaidon Salter 33 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — LIB win probability +23.6 pts (now 31%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SHSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 11LIB made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 10:30SHSU 4th & 4 at LIB 22, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 46.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.8%−<0.1
    72% to make
    Punt
    46.1%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:17LIB 4th & 3 at LIB 42, down 3
    Close callPunted · 52.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:20SHSU 4th & 4 at SHSU 28, up 3
    Close callPunted · 47.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.7%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:34LIB 4th & 4 at SHSU 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    51.2%−0.4
    42% to make
    Punt
    51.0%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:14SHSU 4th & 7 at SHSU 39, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.5%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.7%
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:15LIB 4th & 8 at LIB 26, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.3%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.8%
    average punt
  7. Q1 0:04LIB 4th & 11 at LIB 49, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.5%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 15:00SHSU 4th & 1 at LIB 38, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    49.8%−0.9
    38% to make
    Punt
    49.7%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:16LIB 4th & 15 at LIB 26, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.4%−1.9
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.4%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:44SHSU 4th & 6 at SHSU 39, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.2%−1.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 14:52LIB 4th & 1 at LIB 41, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    31.5%−2.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:52LIB 4th & 5 at SHSU 42, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.0%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    29.8%−2.2
    30% to make
    Punt
    31.1%−0.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:13SHSU 4th & 8 at LIB 21, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.2%−1.3
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.6%
    74% to make
    Punt
    67.6%−9.0
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:44LIB 4th & 2 at LIB 33, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.6%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00SHSU 4th & 7 at LIB 31, up 11
    Close callWent for it · 84.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.8%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    84.9%
    54% to make
    Punt
    83.6%−1.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:10SHSU 4th & 8 at LIB 14, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.0%−0.9
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.8%
    84% to make
    Punt
    79.9%−5.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:00SHSU 4th & 3 at LIB 23, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    89.0%−0.6
    70% to make
    Punt
    84.1%−5.5
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:20LIB 4th & 23 at SHSU 25, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.1%−1.3
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.3%
    66% to make
    Punt
    6.6%−2.7
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:24SHSU 4th & 10 at SHSU 26, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.1%−1.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.7%
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:38LIB 4th & 13 at SHSU 20, down 8
    Numbers favored field goal by 3.0 ptsWent for it · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.0%−3.0
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    10.0%
    75% to make
    Punt
    3.8%−6.2
    average punt
  21. Q4 2:16SHSU 4th & 4 at SHSU 26, up 8
    Close callPunted · 93.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.4%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.3%−0.2
    average punt
  22. Q4 2:00LIB 4th & 2 at LIB 44, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.1%−2.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SHSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2LIB made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 10:14SHSU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:45SHSU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:14LIB Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 1:10LIB Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    22.5%−3.6
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    26.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SHSUDrive 1FG
11 plays · 53 yds · 4:3040% → 42%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
39.5%
Simeon Evans run for 6 yds to the SHSU 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+15
39.5%
Jay Ducker run for 15 yds to the SHSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
39.5%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Ife Adeyi for 15 yds to the LIB 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-6
39.5%
Hunter Watson sacked by Joseph Carter for a loss of 6 yards to the LIB 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 16
OPP 45
+10
39.5%
Jay Ducker run for 10 yds to the LIB 35Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+7
39.5%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Simeon Evans for 7 yds to the LIB 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
39.5%
Hunter Watson run for 4 yds to the LIB 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 24
0
39.5%
Jay Ducker run for no gain to the LIB 24Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+2
39.5%
Hunter Watson run for 2 yds to the LIB 22Similar
Q1 10:30
4TH & 4
OPP 22
+39
41.7%
Christian Pavon 39 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:1359% → 58%
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
41.4%
Quinton Cooley run for 3 yds to the LIB 38Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+4
41.2%
Quinton Cooley run for 4 yds to the LIB 42Similar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 3
OWN 42
0
41.2%
Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to Reese SmithSimilar
Q1 9:17
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
42.2%
Max Morgan punt for 46 yds , Simeon Evans returns for no gain to the SHSU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:5742% → 42%
Q1 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
42.0%
Jay Ducker run for 5 yds to the SHSU 17Similar
Q1 9:17
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+5
42.0%
Jay Ducker run for 5 yds to the SHSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
42.1%
Hunter Watson pass incomplete to Ife AdeyiSimilar
Q1 9:17
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+6
42.0%
Jay Ducker run for 6 yds to the SHSU 28Similar
Q1 9:17
3RD & 4
OWN 28
0
41.9%
Hunter Watson pass incomplete to Simeon EvansSimilar
Q1 7:20
4TH & 4
OWN 28
+20
42.3%
Jadon Cardell punt for 45 yds , Brylan Green returns for 20 yds to the LIB 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 4DOWNS
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:4658% → 57%
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
42.4%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Reese Smith for 9 yds to the SHSU 44Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+2
42.2%
Quinton Cooley run for 2 yds to the SHSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
42.3%
Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to Vaughn BlueSimilar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+6
42.3%
Quinton Cooley run for 6 yds to the SHSU 36Similar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+4
42.3%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Quinton Cooley for 4 yds Quinton Cooley fumbled, recovered by LIB for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:34
4TH & 4
OPP 36
0
43.5%
Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to Tyson MobleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2044% → 44%
Q1 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
43.8%
Hunter Watson run for 3 yds to the SHSU 39Similar
Q1 5:34
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
44.1%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Jay Ducker for no gain to the SHSU 39Similar
Q1 5:34
3RD & 7
OWN 39
0
43.5%
Hunter Watson pass incomplete to Qua'Vez HumphreysSimilar
Q1 4:14
4TH & 7
OWN 39
+7
43.6%
Jadon Cardell punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LIB 24 , Brylan Green returns for 7 yds to the LIB 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5956% → 54%
Q1 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
44.5%
Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to Elijah CanionSimilar
Q1 4:14
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+2
44.6%
Quinton Cooley run for 2 yds to the LIB 26Similar
Q1 4:14
3RD & 8
OWN 26
0
44.9%
Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to Donte Lee Jr.Similar
Q1 3:15
4TH & 8
OWN 26
0
45.8%
Max Morgan punt for 67 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 7SF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:4144% → 44%
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
44.4%
Jay Ducker run for 2 yds to the SHSU 3Similar
Q1 2:34
2ND & 8
OWN 3
0
44.3%
Hunter Watson pass incomplete to Jay Ducker for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 2:2556% → 54%
Q1 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
44.1%
Billy Lucas run for 5 yds to the LIB 41Similar
Q1 2:29
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+3
43.4%
Billy Lucas run for 3 yds to the LIB 44Similar
Q1 2:29
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+6
43.5%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Elijah Canion for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:29
1ST & 10
50
-1
43.2%
Billy Lucas run for a loss of 1 yard to the LIB 49Similar
Q1 2:29
2ND & 11
OWN 49
0
43.7%
Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to Donte Lee Jr.Similar
Q1 2:29
3RD & 11
OWN 49
0
44.1%
Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to Tyson MobleySimilar
Q1 0:04
4TH & 11
OWN 49
0
45.9%
Max Morgan punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Ife Adeyi at the SHSU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 9TD
14 plays · 87 yds · 4:4646% → 56%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
45.5%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Zach Hrbacek for 2 yds to the SHSU 15Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+3
45.5%
Zach Hrbacek run for 3 yds to the SHSU 18Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 18
+22
44.9%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Simeon Evans for 32 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down Sam Houston Penalty, (-10 Yards) to the SHSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
46.6%
Hunter Watson pass incomplete to Noah SmithSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
46.1%
Hunter Watson pass incomplete to Simeon EvansSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+13
45.5%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Noah Smith for 13 yds to the LIB 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
47.2%
Hunter Watson pass incomplete to Qua'Vez HumphreysSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+8
47.0%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Noah Smith for 8 yds to the LIB 39Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+1
46.9%
Hunter Watson run for 1 yd to the LIB 38Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 38
+1
46.1%
Hunter Watson run for 1 yd to the LIB 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-5
47.3%
PENALTY SHSU False Start (Larson,Rhett) 5 yards from LU37 to LU42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 42
+21
46.5%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Michael Phoenix II for 21 yds to the LIB 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
47.6%
Hunter Watson run for 4 yds to the LIB 17Similar
Q2 10:14
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+17
56.1%
Simeon Evans 17 Yd pass from Hunter Watson (Christian Pavon Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 10INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
55.2%
Liberty Penalty, (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 10:14
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+3
55.4%
Quinton Cooley run for 3 yds to the LIB 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 11TD
5 plays · 31 yds · 2:2957% → 68%
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+10
57.1%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Noah Smith for 10 yds to the LIB 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
57.1%
Jay Ducker run for no gain to the LIB 21Similar
Q2 9:14
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+17
57.1%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Jay Ducker for 17 yds to the LIB 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
57.1%
Jay Ducker run for 2 yds to the LIB 2Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
68.0%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Simeon Evans for 2 yds for a TD (Christian Pavon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:2335% → 33%
Q2 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
65.0%
Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to Donte Lee Jr.Similar
Q2 6:39
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
65.3%
Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to Julian GraySimilar
Q2 6:39
3RD & 10
OWN 31
-5
65.9%
PENALTY LU False Start (Hall,Jordan) 5 yards from LU31 to LU26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:39
3RD & 15
OWN 26
0
66.1%
Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to Reese SmithSimilar
Q2 6:16
4TH & 15
OWN 26
0
66.8%
Max Morgan punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Ife Adeyi at the SHSU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 13INT
5 plays · 24 yds · 2:5268% → 73%
Q2 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
68.2%
Jay Ducker run for 6 yds to the SHSU 34Similar
Q2 6:16
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+2
68.5%
Jay Ducker run for 2 yds to the SHSU 36Similar
Q2 6:16
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+13
68.1%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Simeon Evans for 13 yds to the SHSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
69.2%
Jay Ducker run for 3 yds to the LIB 48Similar
Q2 3:24
2ND & 7
OPP 48
0
73.3%
Hunter Watson pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 14TD
8 plays · 51 yds · 2:1031% → 43%
Q2 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
68.6%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Reese Smith for 11 yds to the SHSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
68.4%
Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to Donte Lee Jr.Similar
Q2 3:24
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+16
68.4%
Quinton Cooley run for 16 yds to the SHSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
67.0%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Elijah Canion for 4 yds to the SHSU 20Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+5
65.8%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Treon Sibley for 5 yds to the SHSU 15Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+5
66.7%
Quinton Cooley run for 5 yds to the SHSU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
56.6%
Elijah Canion 10 Yd pass from Kaidon Salter (Colin Karhu Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 0:3063% → 65%
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
63.2%
Jay Ducker run for no gain to the SHSU 35Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+4
62.4%
Hunter Watson run for 4 yds to the SHSU 39Similar
Q2 1:04
3RD & 6
OWN 39
-9
65.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Watson,Hunter pass complete short right to Adksim,Lonnie caught at SHSU48, for 9 yards to the SHSU48 (Sweeney,Jayden) PENALTY SHSU Illegal Touch-Pass (Adksim,Lonnie). NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:44
4TH & 6
OWN 39
+8
64.5%
Jadon Cardell punt for 50 yds , Julian Gray returns for 8 yds to the LIB 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:4437% → 37%
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
62.6%
Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to Elijah CanionSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+2
63.4%
Billy Lucas run for 2 yds to the LIB 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 17DOWNS
10 plays · 26 yds · 5:0037% → 33%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
63.5%
Quinton Cooley run for 1 yd to the LIB 33Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+7
63.9%
Ryan Burger run for 7 yds to the LIB 40Similar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+1
62.2%
Ryan Burger run for 1 yd to the LIB 41Similar
Q3 14:52
4TH & 1
OWN 41
+1
64.2%
Quinton Cooley run for 1 yd to the LIB 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
62.8%
Quinton Cooley run for 11 yds to the SHSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
61.3%
Quinton Cooley run for 1 yd to the SHSU 46Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+5
61.3%
Ryan Burger run for 5 yds to the SHSU 41Similar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 4
OPP 41
-1
61.7%
Quinton Cooley run for a loss of 1 yard to the SHSU 42Similar
Q3 9:52
4TH & 5
OPP 42
0
66.7%
Ryan Burger pass incomplete to Reese SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 18FG
9 plays · 36 yds · 4:3972% → 78%
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
71.7%
Jay Ducker run for 4 yds to the SHSU 46Similar
Q3 9:52
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+9
71.8%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Noah Smith for 9 yds to the LIB 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
72.2%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Noah Smith for 7 yds to the LIB 38Similar
Q3 9:52
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+15
72.2%
Jay Ducker run for 15 yds to the LIB 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
72.5%
Jay Ducker run for 4 yds to the LIB 19Similar
Q3 9:52
2ND & 6
OPP 19
0
72.5%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Noah Smith for no gain to the LIB 19Similar
Q3 9:52
3RD & 6
OPP 19
-4
71.3%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Simeon Evans for 1 yd to the LIB 18 Sam Houston Penalty, (-5 Yards) to the LIB 23Similar
Q3 9:52
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+2
71.1%
Hunter Watson run for 2 yds to the LIB 21Similar
Q3 5:13
4TH & 8
OPP 21
+38
77.9%
Christian Pavon 38 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2924% → 20%
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
76.3%
Ryan Burger pass incomplete to Julian GraySimilar
Q3 5:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
76.5%
Billy Lucas run for 8 yds to the LIB 33Similar
Q3 5:13
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
75.8%
Ryan Burger run for no gain to the LIB 33Similar
Q3 3:44
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
79.9%
Max Morgan punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 20MISSED FG
17 plays · 56 yds · 6:3480% → 86%
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
80.3%
Hunter Watson pass incomplete to Noah SmithSimilar
Q3 3:44
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+4
80.2%
Jay Ducker run for 4 yds to the SHSU 34Similar
Q3 3:44
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+12
79.6%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Simeon Evans for 12 yds to the SHSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
81.6%
Hunter Watson run for 1 yd to the SHSU 47Similar
Q3 3:44
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+9
81.4%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Noah Smith for 9 yds to the LIB 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
81.6%
Noah Smith run for 2 yds to the LIB 42Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+3
85.7%
Jay Ducker run for 3 yds to the LIB 39Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 39
0
85.1%
Hunter Watson pass incomplete to Qua'Vez HumphreysSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 39
+5
84.1%
PENALTY LU Offside (Bush,TJ) 5 yards from LU39 to LU34, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-5
85.8%
Michael Phoenix II run for a loss of 5 yards to the LIB 39Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 39
+8
85.5%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Ife Adeyi for 8 yds to the LIB 31Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 31
0
85.2%
Hunter Watson pass incomplete to Jay DuckerSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 31
+15
84.1%
Hunter Watson run for 15 yds to the LIB 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
85.8%
Jay Ducker run for 2 yds to the LIB 14Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 14
0
85.8%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Michael Phoenix IISimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 14
0
85.3%
Hunter Watson pass incomplete to Noah SmithSimilar
Q4 12:10
4TH & 8
OPP 14
+32
85.7%
Christian Pavon 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 21INT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:4216% → 13%
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
84.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun Salter,Kaidon pass incomplete short right to Smith,Reese thrown to LU26 PENALTY LU Pass Interference (Lee Jr.,Donte) 10 yards from LU20 to LU10. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:10
1ST & 20
OWN 10
0
84.6%
Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to Donte Lee Jr.Similar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 20
OWN 10
+6
84.9%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Reese Smith for 6 yds to the LIB 16Similar
Q4 11:28
3RD & 14
OWN 16
0
87.0%
Kaidon Salter pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 22DOWNS
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2888% → 89%
Q4 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
87.5%
Hunter Watson run for 4 yds to the LIB 26Similar
Q4 11:28
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+3
87.5%
Jay Ducker run for 3 yds to the LIB 23Similar
Q4 11:28
3RD & 3
OPP 23
0
87.0%
Hunter Watson pass incomplete to Ife AdeyiSimilar
Q4 10:00
4TH & 3
OPP 23
0
89.1%
Hunter Watson pass incomplete to Simeon EvansSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 23FG
11 plays · 48 yds · 2:4012% → 13%
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+12
88.2%
Billy Lucas run for 12 yds to the LIB 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
87.0%
Billy Lucas run for 6 yds to the LIB 41Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 4
OWN 41
0
86.1%
Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to Elijah CanionSimilar
Q4 10:00
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+9
86.6%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Jacob Jenkins for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
50
0
85.2%
Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to Jacob JenkinsSimilar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 10
50
+16
85.6%
Billy Lucas run for 16 yds to the SHSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+10
84.2%
Sam Houston Penalty, (10 Yards) to the SHSU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-6
83.7%
Ryan Burger run for a loss of 6 yards to the SHSU 18Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 16
OPP 18
-7
84.6%
Liberty Penalty, (Yards) to the SHSU 25Similar
Q4 10:00
3RD & 23
OPP 25
0
86.6%
Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to Tyson MobleySimilar
Q4 7:20
4TH & 23
OPP 25
+43
87.0%
Colin Karhu 43 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:4989% → 91%
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
89.3%
Jay Ducker run for a loss of 2 yards to the SHSU 24Similar
Q4 7:13
2ND & 12
OWN 24
+2
89.0%
Jay Ducker run for 2 yds to the SHSU 26Similar
Q4 7:13
3RD & 10
OWN 26
0
88.4%
Hunter Watson pass incomplete to Simeon EvansSimilar
Q4 5:24
4TH & 10
OWN 26
0
90.7%
Jadon Cardell punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 25DOWNS
10 plays · 42 yds · 2:4614% → 12%
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
86.3%
Quinton Cooley run for 9 yds to the LIB 47Similar
Q4 5:24
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+10
84.1%
Quinton Cooley run for 10 yds to the SHSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
84.6%
Quinton Cooley run for 5 yds to the SHSU 38Similar
Q4 5:24
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+5
83.5%
Quinton Cooley run for 5 yds to the SHSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
82.8%
Sam Houston Penalty, (15 Yards) to the SHSU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
82.0%
Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to Reese SmithSimilar
Q4 3:24
2ND & 10
OPP 17
-3
82.9%
Kaidon Salter sacked for a loss of 3 yards to the SHSU 20Similar
Q4 3:24
3RD & 13
OPP 20
0
86.0%
Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to Elijah CanionSimilar
Q4 2:38
4TH & 13
OPP 20
0
88.3%
Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to Jacob JenkinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 0:2294% → 95%
Q4 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
94.4%
Jay Ducker run for 4 yds to the SHSU 24Similar
Q4 2:34
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+1
95.1%
Jay Ducker run for 1 yd to the SHSU 25Similar
Q4 2:31
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+1
95.9%
Hunter Watson run for 1 yd to the SHSU 26Similar
Q4 2:16
4TH & 4
OWN 26
+7
94.9%
Jadon Cardell punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LIB 36 , Julian Gray returns for 7 yds to the LIB 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 27TD
7 plays · 64 yds · 1:065% → 31%
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
94.7%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Tyson Mobley for 5 yds to the LIB 41Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 5
OWN 41
0
93.4%
Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to Reese SmithSimilar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+3
94.0%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Tyson Mobley for 3 yds to the LIB 44Similar
Q4 2:00
4TH & 2
OWN 44
+6
94.3%
Quinton Cooley run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
50
+17
93.0%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Treon Sibley for 17 yds to the SHSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
69.4%
Kaidon Salter 33 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 28END OF GAME
3 plays · -4 yds · 1:0990% → 95%
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
89.8%
H. Watson takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 46
-2
95.1%
H. Watson takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:10
Kaidon Salter 33 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
-23.6
TD · Q2 6:45
Hunter Watson pass complete to Simeon Evans for 2 yds for a TD (Christian Pavon KICK)
+10.9
TD · Q2 1:14
Elijah Canion 10 Yd pass from Kaidon Salter (Colin Karhu Kick)
-10.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com