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LIB

Liberty 37 at Middle Tennessee 17

MTSU
2024 · Week 11 · Nov 9, 2024 · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
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Win probability · MTSU
modelMTSU aheadLIB aheadconfidence bandkey playMTSU scoreLIB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:14 · Grant Chadwick punt for 48 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+54.0+27.00−27.0−54.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 33Home team on offense+0.1Pregame prior−25.8Score differential−0.3Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:00: Quinton Cooley run for 4 yds for a TD (Colin Karhu KICK) — LIB win probability +5.3 pts (now 79%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:09: Julian Gray run for 41 yds for a TD (Colin Karhu PAT MISSED) — LIB win probability +4.3 pts (now 84%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:32: Kaidon Salter pass complete to Jacob Jenkins for 4 yds for a TD (Colin Karhu KICK) — LIB win probability +8.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:53: Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Terry Wilkins for 17 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK) — MTSU win probability +8.9 pts (now 11%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:42: Kaidon Salter pass complete to Julian Gray for 34 yds for a TD (Colin Karhu KICK) — LIB win probability +3.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MTSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7LIB made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 12:29MTSU 4th & 17 at LIB 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.7%−0.1
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    22.8%−<0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    22.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:42MTSU 4th & 1 at MTSU 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.9%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:14MTSU 4th & 15 at MTSU 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.1%−0.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:48MTSU 4th & 9 at MTSU 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.3%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.0%
    average punt
  5. Q3 13:42LIB 4th & 10 at LIB 35, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.1%−1.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.1%
    average punt
  6. Q3 10:22MTSU 4th & 4 at LIB 44, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    8.7%−1.8
    27% to make
    Punt
    9.8%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q3 5:04MTSU 4th & 1 at LIB 5, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.1%
    67% to convert
    Field goal
    6.8%−2.4
    92% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−8.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 1:49LIB 4th & 6 at MTSU 16, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.4%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.7%
    81% to make
    Punt
    93.1%−3.7
    average punt
  9. Q4 4:47MTSU 4th & 20 at LIB 31, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.1%
    54% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MTSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2LIB made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 9:16MTSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:53LIB Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:00LIB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:09LIB Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    80.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:32LIB Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:53MTSU Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:42LIB Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MTSUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 34 yds · 2:2919% → 20%
Q1 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+30
18.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Cam'ron Lacy for 30 yds to the LIB 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
19.1%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jekail Middlebrook for 11 yds to the LIB 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-4
19.5%
Jekail Middlebrook run for a loss of 4 yards to the LIB 38Similar
Q1 13:08
2ND & 14
OPP 38
0
19.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:03
3RD & 14
OPP 38
-3
19.7%
Nicholas Vattiato sacked by Eliyt Nairne and Chris Boti for a loss of 3 yards to the LIB 41Similar
Q1 12:29
4TH & 17
OPP 41
0
19.9%
Grant Chadwick punt for 30 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 2FUMBLE
5 plays · 31 yds · 1:5880% → 79%
Q1 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+16
20.1%
Julian Gray run for 16 yds to the LIB 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
20.2%
Quinton Cooley run for 6 yds to the LIB 33Similar
Q1 11:22
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+13
20.4%
Kaidon Salter run for 13 yds to the LIB 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
20.5%
Quinton Cooley run for 1 yd to the LIB 47Similar
Q1 10:21
2ND & 9
OWN 47
-5
20.7%
Julian Gray run for a loss of 5 yards to the LIB 42 Julian Gray fumbled, recovered by MTSU Brandon Buckner B. Buckner return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 3TD
4 plays · 42 yds · 0:4222% → 24%
Q1 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+14
21.7%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 14 yds to the LIB 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+15
22.0%
(09:36) VATTIATO, Nicholas pass up the middle complete for 17 yards to SHERMAN, Javonte caught at the LIB15 and advanced to the LIB11 (WILLIAMS, Amarian;JONES, A'Khori), clock 09:25. PENALTY LIB Roughing the Passer enforced 15 yards from the LIB00 to the MTSU15 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 9:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
22.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
23.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Hayes Sutton for 6 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 4TD
7 plays · 93 yds · 3:1177% → 77%
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+11
23.3%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Elijah Canion for 11 yds to the LIB 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
23.6%
Kaidon Salter run for 9 yds to the LIB 27Similar
Q1 8:09
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+14
23.9%
Kaidon Salter run for 14 yds to the LIB 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
24.2%
Quinton Cooley run for 10 yds to the MTSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
24.4%
Quinton Cooley run for 5 yds to the MTSU 44Similar
Q1 6:35
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+3
24.6%
Vaughn Blue run for 3 yds to the MTSU 41Similar
Q1 5:53
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+41
22.6%
Kaidon Salter run for 41 yds for a TD (Colin Karhu KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:0723% → 24%
Q1 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
23.4%
Jaiden Credle run for a loss of 5 yards to the MTSU 20Similar
Q1 5:08
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+5
23.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jaiden Credle for 5 yds to the MTSU 25Similar
Q1 4:28
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+9
23.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Javonte Sherman for 9 yds to the MTSU 34Similar
Q1 3:42
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
24.2%
Grant Chadwick punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 6FUMBLE
3 plays · 14 yds · 1:0576% → 76%
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
23.8%
Quinton Cooley run for 5 yds to the LIB 49Similar
Q1 3:03
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+7
23.9%
Quinton Cooley run for 7 yds to the MTSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
23.8%
Kaidon Salter run for 2 yds to the MTSU 42 Kaidon Salter fumbled, recovered by MTSU Xavier Williams X. Williams return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 2:0226% → 26%
Q1 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-6
26.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jekail Middlebrook for a loss of 6 yards to the MTSU 36Similar
Q1 1:37
2ND & 16
OWN 36
+7
26.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Myles Butler for 7 yds to the MTSU 43Similar
Q1 0:53
3RD & 9
OWN 43
-6
26.5%
Nicholas Vattiato sacked by CJ Bazile Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the MTSU 37Similar
Q1 0:14
4TH & 15
OWN 37
0
25.9%
Grant Chadwick punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 8TD
17 plays · 85 yds · 6:0674% → 79%
Q1 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
26.1%
James Jointer Jr. run for 6 yds to the LIB 21Similar
Q2 14:59
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+7
26.0%
James Jointer Jr. run for 7 yds to the LIB 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
26.3%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:17
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+4
26.5%
James Jointer Jr. run for 4 yds to the LIB 32Similar
Q2 13:42
3RD & 6
OWN 32
0
26.9%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:29
4TH & 6
OWN 32
+5
27.7%
MORGAN, Max punt 18 yards to the MTSU50 out of bounds, clock 13:29. PENALTY Before the snap, MTSU Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the LIB32 to the LIB37. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 13:26
4TH & 1
OWN 37
+5
27.2%
(13:26) TEAM rush up the middle for no gain, fumbled at LIB37 , recovered by LIB COOLEY, Quinton at the LIB37, returned 0 yards to the LIB37, End of Play, clock 13:24. PENALTY MTSU Offsides enforced 5 yards from the LIB38 to the LIB43 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
26.1%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Jacob Jenkins for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 12:46
2ND & 3
50
+3
25.8%
Quinton Cooley run for 3 yds to the MTSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
26.2%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Tyson Mobley for 7 yds to the MTSU 40Similar
Q2 11:42
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+15
26.3%
Kaidon Salter run for 15 yds to the MTSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
26.1%
Quinton Cooley run for 3 yds to the MTSU 22Similar
Q2 10:38
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+3
26.3%
Kaidon Salter run for 3 yds to the MTSU 19Similar
Q2 9:55
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+8
26.5%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Elijah Canion for 8 yds to the MTSU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+7
26.0%
Quinton Cooley run for 7 yds to the MTSU 4Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 3
OPP 4
+4
20.7%
Quinton Cooley run for 4 yds for a TD (Colin Karhu KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:1023% → 22%
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
22.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jaiden Credle for 6 yds to the MTSU 31Similar
Q2 8:22
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
23.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:16
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+6
22.6%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 6 yds to the MTSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
22.8%
Jaiden Credle run for 1 yd to the MTSU 38Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
23.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:54
3RD & 9
OWN 38
0
22.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:48
4TH & 9
OWN 38
0
21.6%
Grant Chadwick punt for 58 yds, downed at the LIB 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 10TD
7 plays · 96 yds · 3:2778% → 84%
Q2 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+13
22.4%
Quinton Cooley run for 13 yds to the LIB 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+12
22.1%
Quinton Cooley run for 12 yds to the LIB 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
21.6%
Quinton Cooley run for 1 yd to the LIB 30Similar
Q2 5:05
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+1
21.7%
Kaidon Salter run for 1 yd to the LIB 31Similar
Q2 4:23
3RD & 8
OWN 31
+17
22.4%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Tyson Mobley for 17 yds to the LIB 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
20.7%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Tyson Mobley for 11 yds to the MTSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
16.4%
Julian Gray run for 41 yds for a TD (Colin Karhu PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 11FUMBLE
4 plays · 28 yds · 1:0018% → 19%
Q2 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+12
18.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Holden Willis for 12 yds to the MTSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
18.3%
Jekail Middlebrook run for 7 yds to the MTSU 43Similar
Q2 1:59
2ND & 3
OWN 43
-9
18.9%
Nicholas Vattiato sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the MTSU 23 Nicholas Vattiato fumbled, recovered by LIB Ethan Crisp , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 12TD
8 plays · 23 yds · 1:1685% → 94%
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
14.9%
Quinton Cooley run for 8 yds to the MTSU 15Similar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 2
OPP 15
+3
14.8%
Quinton Cooley run for 3 yds to the MTSU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-4
14.7%
Kaidon Salter sacked by Aidan Butts for a loss of 4 yards to the MTSU 16Similar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 14
OPP 16
+8
14.9%
(00:51) SALTER, Kaidon pass deep to the right incomplete intended for CANION, Elijah thrown to the MTSU0; QB hurried by STEWART, James, clock 00:43. PENALTY MTSU Holding on RABY, Tyrell enforced half the distance from the goal, 8 yards from the MTSU16 to the MTSU8 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
14.6%
Quinton Cooley run for 4 yds to the MTSU 4Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
6.4%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Jacob Jenkins for 4 yds for a TD (Colin Karhu KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
13.4%
Jaiden Credle run for 3 yds to the MTSU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:1392% → 91%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
8.4%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Bentley Hanshaw for 3 yds to the LIB 38Similar
Q3 14:25
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+2
7.8%
Quinton Cooley run for 2 yds to the LIB 40Similar
Q3 13:48
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
8.3%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:44
4TH & 5
OWN 40
-5
8.6%
Liberty Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the LIB 35Similar
Q3 13:42
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
8.8%
Max Morgan punt for 54 yds, downed at the MTSU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 15DOWNS
19 plays · 84 yds · 8:2712% → 7%
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+11
11.6%
Terry Wilkins run for 11 yds to the MTSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+10
10.8%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Holden Willis for 10 yds to the MTSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+18
10.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Myles Butler for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:38
1ST & 10
50
0
9.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:36
2ND & 10
50
-5
9.6%
Middle Tennessee Penalty, False Start (Simon Wilson) to the MTSU 45Similar
Q3 11:34
2ND & 15
OWN 45
+11
9.2%
Jaiden Credle run for 11 yds to the LIB 44Similar
Q3 10:54
3RD & 4
OPP 44
0
9.7%
Jaiden Credle run for no gain to the LIB 44Similar
Q3 10:22
4TH & 4
OPP 44
+5
9.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Javonte Sherman for 5 yds to the LIB 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
9.7%
Jekail Middlebrook run for 4 yds to the LIB 35Similar
Q3 9:06
2ND & 6
OPP 35
0
9.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:59
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+10
9.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Cam'ron Lacy for 10 yds to the LIB 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
9.8%
Jekail Middlebrook run for 4 yds to the LIB 21Similar
Q3 7:50
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+5
9.5%
Jekail Middlebrook run for 5 yds to the LIB 16Similar
Q3 7:11
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+2
9.1%
Jaiden Credle run for 2 yds to the LIB 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
8.5%
Jaiden Credle run for 3 yds to the LIB 11Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 7
OPP 11
0
8.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:53
3RD & 7
OPP 11
+6
7.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Hayes Sutton for 6 yds to the LIB 5Similar
Q3 5:04
4TH & 1
OPP 5
0
6.9%
Jaiden Credle run for no gain to the LIB 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 16FG
10 plays · 79 yds · 3:1296% → 98%
Q3 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
4.1%
Quinton Cooley run for no gain to the LIB 5Similar
Q3 4:25
2ND & 10
OWN 5
-10
4.0%
Liberty Penalty, Offensive Holding (Treon Sibley) to the LIB 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
3.3%
Vaughn Blue run for 12 yds to the LIB 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
3.1%
Middle Tennessee Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Abdul Muhammad) to the MTSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
2.9%
Middle Tennessee Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Abdul Muhammad) to the MTSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
2.7%
James Jointer Jr. run for 3 yds to the MTSU 17Similar
Q3 2:32
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+1
2.7%
Quinton Cooley run for 1 yd to the MTSU 16Similar
Q3 1:59
3RD & 6
OPP 16
0
2.6%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:49
4TH & 6
OPP 16
+35
2.5%
Colin Karhu 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 17TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:513% → 11%
Q3 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
2.8%
Nicholas Vattiato sacked by Bryce Dixon for a loss of 2 yards to the MTSU 23Similar
Q3 1:11
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+8
2.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Ethan Crite for 8 yds to the MTSU 31Similar
Q3 0:41
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-5
2.5%
Middle Tennessee Penalty, False Start (Zach Clayton) to the MTSU 26Similar
Q3 0:15
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+22
2.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Holden Willis for 22 yds to the MTSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
2.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+5
2.5%
Terry Wilkins run for 5 yds to the LIB 47Similar
Q4 14:13
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+27
2.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Hayes Sutton for 27 yds to the LIB 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
2.2%
Terry Wilkins run for 3 yds to the LIB 17Similar
Q4 12:53
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+17
11.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Terry Wilkins for 17 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 18TD
7 plays · 79 yds · 3:0594% → 99%
Q4 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-5
6.1%
Liberty Penalty, Delay Of Game (Kaidon Salter) to the LIB 16Similar
Q4 12:44
1ST & 15
OWN 16
+4
6.2%
Quinton Cooley run for 4 yds to the LIB 20Similar
Q4 12:11
2ND & 11
OWN 20
+17
6.1%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Treon Sibley for 17 yds to the LIB 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
5.4%
Quinton Cooley run for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:04
1ST & 10
50
+10
4.9%
Quinton Cooley run for 10 yds to the MTSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
4.6%
Quinton Cooley run for 6 yds to the MTSU 34Similar
Q4 9:42
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+34
1.2%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Julian Gray for 34 yds for a TD (Colin Karhu KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 19FG
11 plays · 44 yds · 4:532% → 1%
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
1.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Holden Willis for 20 yds to the MTSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-2
1.5%
Nicholas Vattiato sacked by Eldric Griffin for a loss of 2 yards to the MTSU 43Similar
Q4 8:29
2ND & 12
OWN 43
+9
1.4%
Jaiden Credle run for 9 yds to the LIB 48Similar
Q4 7:50
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+17
1.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Holden Willis for 17 yds to the LIB 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+10
1.1%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 10 yds to the LIB 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-10
1.0%
Middle Tennessee Penalty, Offensive Holding (Simon Wilson) to the LIB 28Similar
Q4 6:05
1ST & 17
OPP 28
0
1.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:01
2ND & 17
OPP 28
-10
1.0%
(06:01) VATTIATO, Nicholas scrambles up the middle for a gain of 14 yards to the LIB14 (JACKSON, Teylor), clock 05:54. PENALTY MTSU Holding on WILSON, Simon enforced 10 yards from the LIB28 to the LIB38 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 5:31
2ND & 27
OPP 38
+7
0.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Javonte Sherman for 7 yds to the LIB 31Similar
Q4 4:56
3RD & 20
OPP 31
0
0.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:47
4TH & 20
OPP 31
+48
0.9%
Zeke Rankin 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 20END OF GAME
10 plays · 29 yds · 4:1399% → 100%
Q4 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
1.0%
James Jointer Jr. run for 5 yds to the MTSU 39Similar
Q4 4:04
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+4
0.9%
James Jointer Jr. run for 4 yds to the MTSU 35Similar
Q4 3:27
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+4
0.8%
James Jointer Jr. run for 4 yds to the MTSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
0.8%
Caden Williams run for 4 yds to the MTSU 27Similar
Q4 2:11
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+3
0.7%
Caden Williams run for 3 yds to the MTSU 24Similar
Q4 1:54
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+7
0.6%
Ryan Burger pass complete to Vaughn Blue for 7 yds to the MTSU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
0.5%
Vaughn Blue run for 5 yds to the MTSU 12Similar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 5
OPP 12
-1
0.5%
(00:55) [NHSG] Kneel down by BURGER, Ryan at MTSU13 (team loss of 1), clock 00:52.Similar
Q4 0:21
3RD & 6
OPP 13
-2
0.5%
(00:21) [NHSG] Kneel down by BURGER, Ryan at MTSU15 (team loss of 2), clock 00:15.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:53
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Terry Wilkins for 17 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK)
+8.9
TD · Q2 0:32
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Jacob Jenkins for 4 yds for a TD (Colin Karhu KICK)
-8.6
TD · Q2 9:00
Quinton Cooley run for 4 yds for a TD (Colin Karhu KICK)
-5.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com