Try the model
ECU

East Carolina 24 at Liberty 35

LIB
2024 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2024 · Williams Stadium (VA)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · LIB
modelLIB aheadECU aheadconfidence bandkey playLIB scoreECU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-5.3LIB 48.6%Andrew Conrad 35 yd FG GOODAWAY 17 - HOME 0 · Q2 11:52
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:52 · Andrew Conrad 35 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTimeout advantage
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 56Pregame prior+16.2Home team on offense−13.0Score differential−4.9Garbage-time factor−3.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.3Timeout advantage+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:16: Kaidon Salter pass complete to Reese Smith for 17 yds for a TD (Colin Karhu KICK) — LIB win probability +15.4 pts (now 61%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  2. TD · Q3 2:52: Kaidon Salter pass complete to Reese Smith for 14 yds for a TD (Colin Karhu KICK) — LIB win probability +24.8 pts (now 75%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:41: Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK) — ECU win probability +20.6 pts (now 57%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:10: Kaidon Salter pass complete to Reese Smith for 15 yds for a TD (Colin Karhu KICK) — LIB win probability +27.5 pts (now 73%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:00: Quinton Cooley run for 21 yds for a TD (Colin Karhu KICK) — LIB win probability +10.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LIB made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ECU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 14:27ECU 4th & 4 at ECU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.7%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:33LIB 4th & 8 at LIB 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.0%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:41LIB 4th & 15 at LIB 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.0%−0.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:16ECU 4th & 9 at LIB 39, up 7
    Close callPunted · 35.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.7%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    35.6%−0.2
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    35.6%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:36LIB 4th & 4 at LIB 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.1%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:52ECU 4th & 15 at LIB 17, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.6%−2.4
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.0%
    80% to make
    Punt
    41.0%−7.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:28ECU 4th & 7 at LIB 7, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.0%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    47.5%−9.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:22ECU 4th & 4 at LIB 31, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    46.5%−1.3
    54% to make
    Punt
    44.5%−3.4
    average punt
  9. Q4 2:33LIB 4th & 2 at ECU 38, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    82.8%−4.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    81.6%−5.3
    average punt
  10. Q4 0:59ECU 4th & 2 at ECU 44, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.8%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LIB made the numbers' call on 5 of 5ECU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 9:52ECU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:18ECU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:53LIB Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:16LIB Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:52LIB Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:41ECU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.8%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:10LIB Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:00LIB Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ECUDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:3227% → 27%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
73.0%
Winston Wright Jr. run for 6 yds to the ECU 31Similar
Q1 14:37
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
72.9%
Jake Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:32
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
72.9%
Jake Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:27
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
72.9%
Luke Larsen punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Brylan Green at the LIB 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4873% → 73%
Q1 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
72.9%
Billy Lucas run for 2 yds to the LIB 22Similar
Q1 13:46
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
72.8%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:40
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
72.7%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:33
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
72.6%
Max Morgan punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 3TD
11 plays · 68 yds · 3:3327% → 30%
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
72.7%
Jake Garcia run for 7 yds to the ECU 39Similar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+42
72.5%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Chase Sowell for 42 yds to the LIB 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
72.3%
Winston Wright Jr. run for 4 yds to the LIB 15Similar
Q1 12:16
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+7
72.2%
Jake Garcia run for 7 yds to the LIB 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
72.0%
Jake Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
72.0%
Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the LIB 6Similar
Q1 10:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
71.8%
Liberty Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Joseph Carter) to the LIB 4Similar
Q1 10:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
71.6%
Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the LIB 3Similar
Q1 10:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
71.5%
Jake Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
71.6%
East Carolina Penalty, False Start (Casey Kelly) to the LIB 8Similar
Q1 9:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
70.0%
Jake Garcia run for 8 yds for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 2:0470% → 68%
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
70.3%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Tyson Mobley for 9 yds to the LIB 31Similar
Q1 9:16
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+2
70.3%
Quinton Cooley run for 2 yds to the LIB 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
69.6%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:35
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-5
69.4%
Vaughn Blue run for a loss of 5 yards to the LIB 28 Vaughn Blue fumbled, recovered by LIB Treon Sibley T. Sibley return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q1 7:49
3RD & 15
OWN 28
0
68.6%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:41
4TH & 15
OWN 28
0
68.4%
Max Morgan punt for 56 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 5PUNT
11 plays · 45 yds · 3:1431% → 34%
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+11
69.0%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 11 yds to the ECU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
68.6%
Rahjai Harris run for 7 yds to the ECU 34Similar
Q1 6:35
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+4
67.8%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Tyler Savage for 4 yds to the ECU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
67.1%
Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the ECU 39Similar
Q1 5:50
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
66.9%
Jake Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:42
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+21
67.1%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 21 yds to the LIB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
66.2%
Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the LIB 38Similar
Q1 4:54
2ND & 8
OPP 38
-1
66.0%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the LIB 39Similar
Q1 4:22
3RD & 9
OPP 39
0
65.6%
Jake Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:16
4TH & 9
OPP 39
0
66.1%
Luke Larsen punt for 38 yds, downed at the LIB 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 6FUMBLE
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:3865% → 65%
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
65.3%
Billy Lucas run for 2 yds to the LIB 3Similar
Q1 3:29
2ND & 8
OWN 3
-2
64.8%
Kaidon Salter run for a loss of 2 yards to the LIB 1 Kaidon Salter fumbled, recovered by ECU DJ Johnson Jr. D. Johnson Jr. return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 7TD
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q1 3:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
60.5%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:3658% → 56%
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-10
58.4%
Liberty Penalty, Illegal Block (Treon Sibley) to the LIB 15Similar
Q1 2:42
1ST & 14
OWN 15
0
57.7%
Quinton Cooley run for no gain to the LIB 15Similar
Q1 2:15
2ND & 14
OWN 15
+10
57.3%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Treon Sibley for 10 yds to the LIB 25Similar
Q1 1:39
3RD & 4
OWN 25
0
56.6%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:36
4TH & 4
OWN 25
+33
56.4%
Max Morgan punt for 48 yds , Brock Spalding returns for 33 yds to the LIB 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 9FG
11 plays · 23 yds · 4:3042% → 51%
Q1 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
58.4%
Jake Garcia run for 1 yd to the LIB 39Similar
Q1 1:04
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+5
58.2%
Javious Bond run for 5 yds to the LIB 34Similar
Q1 0:33
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+7
57.5%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Desirrio Riles for 7 yds to the LIB 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:58
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
56.5%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Jhari Patterson for 3 yds to the LIB 24Similar
Q2 14:37
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+3
56.1%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Jhari Patterson for 3 yds to the LIB 21Similar
Q2 14:12
3RD & 4
OPP 21
+9
55.7%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Kelan Robinson for 9 yds to the LIB 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-10
54.6%
(13:39) BOND, Javious rush up the middle for a loss of 2 yards to the LU14 (BAZILE, JR., CJ), clock 13:37. PENALTY ECU Holding on BELL, Darius enforced 10 yards from the LU12 to the LU22 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 13:19
1ST & 20
OPP 22
0
54.3%
Jake Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:16
2ND & 20
OPP 22
-3
54.3%
Jake Garcia sacked by Quinton Reese for a loss of 3 yards to the LIB 25Similar
Q2 12:32
3RD & 23
OPP 25
+8
53.8%
Javious Bond run for 8 yds to the LIB 17Similar
Q2 11:52
4TH & 15
OPP 17
+35
48.6%
Andrew Conrad 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 10INT
5 plays · 10 yds · 1:4752% → 43%
Q2 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
52.0%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Tyson Mobley for 7 yds to the LIB 17Similar
Q2 11:20
2ND & 3
OWN 17
+2
53.1%
Billy Lucas run for 2 yds to the LIB 19Similar
Q2 10:51
3RD & 1
OWN 19
+1
59.6%
Kaidon Salter run for 1 yd to the LIB 20 Kaidon Salter fumbled, recovered by LIB Tyson Mobley T. Mobley return for 0 yds for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-35
43.1%
Kaidon Salter pass intercepted Isaiah Brown-Murray return for 35 yds to the ECU 45 Liberty Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Jordan White) to the LIB 7Similar
Q2 9:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
43.4%
East Carolina Penalty, False Start (Darius Bell) to the LIB 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 11MISSED FG
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2657% → 56%
Q2 9:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 12
+5
43.5%
Rahjai Harris run for 5 yds to the LIB 7Similar
Q2 9:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
42.9%
Jake Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
43.0%
Jake Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:28
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
44.3%
Andrew Conrad 25 Yard Field Goal MissedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 12TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 6:3142% → 49%
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+25
41.6%
Quinton Cooley run for 25 yds to the LIB 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
42.0%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Elijah Canion for 7 yds to the ECU 48Similar
Q2 8:06
2ND & 3
OPP 48
-2
44.0%
Quinton Cooley run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:27
3RD & 5
50
+12
41.5%
Quinton Cooley run for 12 yds to the ECU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
41.6%
Quinton Cooley run for 5 yds to the ECU 33Similar
Q2 6:04
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+6
44.6%
Kaidon Salter run for 6 yds to the ECU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
43.1%
Billy Lucas run for 3 yds to the ECU 24Similar
Q2 4:50
2ND & 7
OPP 24
0
44.2%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:42
3RD & 7
OPP 24
+10
42.2%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Reese Smith for 10 yds to the ECU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
43.8%
Quinton Cooley run for 2 yds to the ECU 12Similar
Q2 3:36
2ND & 8
OPP 12
-2
44.0%
Billy Lucas run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECU 14Similar
Q2 2:53
3RD & 10
OPP 14
+14
48.5%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Elijah Canion for 14 yds for a TD (Colin Karhu KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 13Uncategorized
10 plays · 20 yds · 2:4445% → 51%
Q2 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
54.6%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 2 yds to the ECU 41Similar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+2
57.1%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 2 yds to the ECU 43Similar
Q2 2:11
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+12
57.4%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Casey Kelly for 12 yds to the LIB 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
59.4%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 1 yd to the LIB 44Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 9
OPP 44
0
59.3%
Jake Garcia run for no gain to the LIB 44Similar
Q2 0:54
3RD & 9
OPP 44
+3
59.1%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 3 yds to the LIB 41Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 6
OPP 41
-5
49.2%
East Carolina Penalty, Delay Of Game (Devon King) to the LIB 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 14TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:4347% → 61%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
46.5%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
46.3%
Quinton Cooley run for 7 yds to the LIB 32Similar
Q3 14:20
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+17
45.8%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Reese Smith for 17 yds to the LIB 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-10
47.2%
(13:37) SALTER, Kaidon pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for LEE JR., Donte thrown to the ECU1, clock 13:29. PENALTY LU Holding on WHITE, Jordan enforced 10 yards from the LU49 to the LU39 [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 13:27
1ST & 20
OWN 39
-3
45.2%
Vaughn Blue run for a loss of 3 yards to the LIB 36Similar
Q3 12:39
2ND & 23
OWN 36
+16
43.6%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Donte Lee Jr. for 16 yds to the ECU 48Similar
Q3 11:59
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+7
44.9%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Reese Smith for 7 yds to the ECU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
45.5%
Kaidon Salter run for 9 yds to the ECU 32Similar
Q3 11:01
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+10
46.6%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Tyson Mobley for 10 yds to the ECU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
46.2%
Quinton Cooley run for 2 yds to the ECU 20Similar
Q3 9:53
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+3
45.4%
Kaidon Salter run for 3 yds to the ECU 17Similar
Q3 9:16
3RD & 5
OPP 17
+17
60.8%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Reese Smith for 17 yds for a TD (Colin Karhu KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 15DOWNS
8 plays · 44 yds · 1:5346% → 48%
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
53.7%
Javious Bond run for 13 yds to the ECU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+25
51.1%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Rahjai Harris for 10 yds to the LIB 48 for a 1ST down Liberty Penalty, Roughing the Passer on BOTI, Chris enforced (Chris Boti) to the LIB 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
49.6%
Jake Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:23
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-2
49.7%
Rahjai Harris run for a loss of 2 yards to the LIB 39Similar
Q3 7:51
3RD & 12
OPP 39
+5
50.9%
(07:51) GARCIA, Jake pass to the left incomplete intended for KELLY, Casey thrown to the LU30, clock 07:46. PENALTY LU Offsides on BAZILE, JR., CJ enforced 5 yards from the LU39 to the LU34 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 7:45
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+3
49.6%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Chase Sowell for 3 yds to the LIB 31Similar
Q3 7:22
4TH & 4
OPP 31
0
51.7%
Jake Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 16TD
10 plays · 69 yds · 4:2655% → 75%
Q3 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
54.8%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Treon Sibley for 6 yds to the LIB 37Similar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+3
57.2%
Billy Lucas run for 3 yds to the LIB 40Similar
Q3 5:57
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+2
56.4%
Billy Lucas run for 2 yds to the LIB 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+14
57.4%
Billy Lucas run for 14 yds to the ECU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
58.3%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:54
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+28
57.8%
Billy Lucas run for 28 yds to the ECU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
59.3%
Kaidon Salter run for 5 yds to the ECU 11Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 5
OPP 11
-3
59.1%
Kaidon Salter sacked by Elijah Morris for a loss of 3 yards to the ECU 14Similar
Q3 2:52
3RD & 8
OPP 14
+14
75.1%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Reese Smith for 14 yds for a TD (Colin Karhu KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 17TD
9 plays · 52 yds · 2:0135% → 57%
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
65.2%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Chase Sowell for 8 yds to the LIB 44Similar
Q3 2:28
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+3
63.6%
Rahjai Harris run for 3 yds to the LIB 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
64.1%
Jake Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:03
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+16
64.2%
Rahjai Harris run for 16 yds to the LIB 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+15
61.9%
(01:41) GARCIA, Jake pass deep to the left incomplete intended for SMITH, Yannick thrown to the LU0, clock 01:37. PENALTY LU Pass Interference on YATES JR., Charles enforced half the distance from the goal, 15 yards to the LU10 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 1:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
61.8%
Rahjai Harris run for 7 yds to the LIB 3Similar
Q3 1:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
61.7%
Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the LIB 2Similar
Q3 0:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
43.4%
Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 18TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 7:2945% → 73%
Q3 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
45.3%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
44.8%
Quinton Cooley run for a loss of 2 yards to the LIB 23Similar
Q4 14:59
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+12
42.6%
Kaidon Salter run for 12 yds to the LIB 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
45.2%
Quinton Cooley run for 6 yds to the LIB 41Similar
Q4 13:40
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+5
48.8%
Quinton Cooley run for 5 yds to the LIB 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
48.0%
Kaidon Salter sacked by Ryheem Craig for a loss of 2 yards to the LIB 44Similar
Q4 12:18
2ND & 12
OWN 44
+17
43.2%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Donte Lee Jr. for 17 yds to the ECU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
47.6%
Quinton Cooley run for 3 yds to the ECU 36Similar
Q4 11:19
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+5
47.1%
Quinton Cooley run for 5 yds to the ECU 31Similar
Q4 10:55
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+2
44.1%
Quinton Cooley run for 2 yds to the ECU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
44.7%
Billy Lucas run for 3 yds to the ECU 26Similar
Q4 9:36
2ND & 7
OPP 26
0
46.9%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:31
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+12
44.4%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Tyson Mobley for 12 yds to the ECU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
46.5%
Kaidon Salter run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECU 15Similar
Q4 8:19
2ND & 11
OPP 15
0
45.9%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:10
3RD & 11
OPP 15
+15
73.4%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Reese Smith for 15 yds for a TD (Colin Karhu KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 19FUMBLE
8 plays · 58 yds · 1:5432% → 43%
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
67.7%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Tyler Savage for 7 yds to the ECU 32Similar
Q4 7:42
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
64.0%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 4 yds to the ECU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
65.5%
Jake Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:16
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+6
66.3%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 6 yds to the ECU 42Similar
Q4 6:55
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+34
62.7%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Tyler Savage for 34 yds to the LIB 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
57.3%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Chase Sowell for 5 yds to the LIB 19Similar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+2
57.2%
Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the LIB 23 Rahjai Harris fumbled, recovered by LIB A'Khori Jones A. Jones return for 6 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 20TD
15 plays · 77 yds · 4:0380% → 99%
Q4 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+17
80.3%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Donte Lee Jr. for 17 yds to the LIB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
83.5%
Billy Lucas run for 2 yds to the LIB 42Similar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+12
85.4%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Tyson Mobley for 12 yds to the ECU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
87.4%
Quinton Cooley run for 3 yds to the ECU 43Similar
Q4 3:35
2ND & 7
OPP 43
0
87.6%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:26
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+5
84.7%
Kaidon Salter run for 5 yds to the ECU 38Similar
Q4 2:33
4TH & 2
OPP 38
+3
83.0%
Kaidon Salter run for 3 yds to the ECU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
88.0%
Quinton Cooley run for 3 yds to the ECU 32Similar
Q4 2:13
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+5
88.0%
East Carolina Penalty, Offsides (Devon King) to the ECU 27Similar
Q4 2:12
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+6
88.7%
Quinton Cooley run for 6 yds to the ECU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
99.0%
Quinton Cooley run for 21 yds for a TD (Colin Karhu KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 21INT
7 plays · 33 yds · 1:162% → 2%
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
98.1%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 11 yds to the ECU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-6
98.0%
Jake Garcia sacked by TJ Bush Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the ECU 30Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 16
OWN 30
+14
98.2%
Jake Garcia pass complete to Chase Sowell for 14 yds to the ECU 44Similar
Q4 1:02
3RD & 2
OWN 44
0
98.2%
Jake Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:59
4TH & 2
OWN 44
+14
98.3%
Jake Garcia run for 14 yds to the LIB 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
97.8%
Jake Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:43
2ND & 10
OPP 42
-35
97.8%
Jake Garcia pass intercepted Dexter Ricks Jr. return for 35 yds to the ECU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 22END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
99.1%
(00:32) [NHSG] Kneel down by LU at ECU48 (team loss of 1), clock 00:26.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:10
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Reese Smith for 15 yds for a TD (Colin Karhu KICK)
+27.5
TD · Q3 2:52
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Reese Smith for 14 yds for a TD (Colin Karhu KICK)
+24.8
TD · Q3 0:41
Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK)
-20.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com