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LIB

Liberty 30 at New Mexico State 24

NMSU
2024 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2024 · Aggie Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NMSU
modelNMSU aheadLIB aheadconfidence bandkey playNMSU scoreLIB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDFGFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:29 · George Eberle punt for 50 yds , Brylan Green returns for 11 yds to the LIB 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+45.5+22.80−22.8−45.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 93Pregame prior−32.4Home team on offense+8.1Garbage-time factor+3.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.8Score differential+2.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 4:16: Timeout New Mexico State, clock 04:16 — NMSU win probability +8.5 pts (now 35%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 9:45: CJ Bazile Jr. 22 Yd Fumble Return (Kaidon Salter Run for Two-Point Conversion) — LIB win probability +22.4 pts (now 47%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 7:42: Parker Awad run for 2 yds for a TD (Abraham Montano KICK) — NMSU win probability +24.5 pts (now 84%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:12: Quinton Cooley run for 27 yds for a TD (Colin Karhu KICK) — LIB win probability +30.0 pts (now 55%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:05: Quinton Cooley run for 44 yds for a TD (Kaidon Salter pass to Reese Smith for Two-Point Conversion) — LIB win probability +62.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NMSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 10LIB made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 11:39LIB 4th & 3 at NMSU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    89.6%−0.1
    32% to make
    Punt
    89.6%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:23NMSU 4th & 3 at LIB 12, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.4%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.4%−<0.1
    86% to make
    Punt
    11.9%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:51LIB 4th & 8 at LIB 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.0%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:04LIB 4th & 2 at LIB 33, down 14
    Close callPunted · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.9%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:26NMSU 4th & 1 at NMSU 48, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.5 ptsPunted · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.9%−2.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:55LIB 4th & 4 at NMSU 12, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 63.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.0%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.7%−0.3
    86% to make
    Punt
    56.4%−6.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:07LIB 4th & 1 at NMSU 43, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    56.9%−2.5
    28% to make
    Punt
    57.0%−2.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:37LIB 4th & 10 at NMSU 11, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%−1.8
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.6%
    87% to make
    Punt
    50.1%−6.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:33NMSU 4th & 15 at NMSU 15, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.5%−3.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:29NMSU 4th & 16 at NMSU 24, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.8%−3.9
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:34LIB 4th & 2 at LIB 45, down 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 53.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.1%−1.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:52NMSU 4th & 6 at NMSU 15, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.2%−1.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:07LIB 4th & 26 at LIB 20, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.9%−5.6
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:12NMSU 4th & 9 at NMSU 47, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.6%−1.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.0%
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:45LIB 4th & 8 at NMSU 27, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.5%−1.5
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.9%
    62% to make
    Punt
    26.8%−13.1
    average punt
  16. Q3 2:22NMSU 4th & 1 at NMSU 36, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    66.6%−3.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:44NMSU 4th & 9 at LIB 43, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.0%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    71.0%−2.0
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    73.0%
    average punt
  18. Q4 13:07LIB 4th & 3 at LIB 20, down 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 24.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.3%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.2%−1.2
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:59NMSU 4th & 3 at LIB 46, up 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 5.0 ptsPunted · 74.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    65.9%−8.0
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    68.8%−5.0
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:31NMSU 4th & 25 at NMSU 10, down 6
    Close callWent for it · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.4%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NMSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3LIB made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q1 5:39NMSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:15NMSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 9:45LIB Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    47.4%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    47.5%
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 7:42NMSU Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.5%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:12LIB Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.2 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.9%−1.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.1%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:05LIB Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Numbers favored kick by 2.5 ptsWent for two · converted
    Kick
    81.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    78.9%−2.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LIBDrive 1DOWNS
8 plays · 34 yds · 3:2195% → 94%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
4.8%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Darius Copeland for 3 yds to the LIB 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
4.8%
Vaughn Blue run for 8 yds to the LIB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+16
4.8%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Reese Smith for 16 yds to the NMSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
4.8%
Quinton Cooley run for 1 yd to the NMSU 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 47
-10
4.8%
Liberty Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the LIB 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 49
0
4.8%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 49
+10
4.8%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Tyson Mobley for 10 yds to the NMSU 41Similar
Q1 11:39
4TH & 3
OPP 41
0
5.8%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 2FG
10 plays · 47 yds · 4:166% → 8%
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
5.9%
Seth McGowan run for 7 yds to the NMSU 48Similar
Q1 11:39
2ND & 3
OWN 48
0
5.9%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:39
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+18
5.9%
Parker Awad pass complete to Seth McGowan for 18 yds to the LIB 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
6.5%
Seth McGowan run for 5 yds to the LIB 29Similar
Q1 9:59
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+10
6.5%
Parker Awad pass complete to Mike Washington for 10 yds to the LIB 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
6.5%
Mike Washington run for 6 yds to the LIB 13Similar
Q1 9:59
2ND & 4
OPP 13
-1
6.5%
Mike Washington run for a loss of 1 yard to the LIB 14Similar
Q1 9:59
3RD & 5
OPP 14
+2
6.5%
Parker Awad run for 2 yds to the LIB 12Similar
Q1 7:23
4TH & 3
OPP 12
+29
7.5%
Abraham Montano 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3293% → 92%
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
7.5%
Billy Lucas run for 2 yds to the LIB 27Similar
Q1 7:23
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
7.5%
Kaidon Salter run for no gain to the LIB 27Similar
Q1 7:23
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
7.6%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:51
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
8.4%
Max Morgan punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jordan Smith at the NMSU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 4TD
2 plays · 64 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+64
9.4%
Parker Awad pass complete to Monte Watkins for 64 yds for a TD (Abraham Montano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 5FG
10 plays · 54 yds · 2:4691% → 90%
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+63
9.0%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Treon Sibley for 63 yds to the NMSU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
8.6%
Vaughn Blue run for 2 yds to the NMSU 10Similar
Q1 5:39
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+8
8.6%
SALTER, Kaidon pass up the middle incomplete intended for HANSHAW, Bentley thrown to the NMS0. PENALTY NMS Pass Interference on CROSBY, Da'Marcus enforced at the spot of the foul for 8 yards to the NMS2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 5:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
8.5%
Kaidon Salter run for no gain to the NMSU 2Similar
Q1 5:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
8.5%
Kaidon Salter run for no gain to the NMSU 2Similar
Q1 3:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-4
10.0%
Kaidon Salter sacked by Buddha Peleti for a loss of 4 yards to the NMSU 6Similar
Q1 3:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-15
10.3%
SALTER, Kaidon pass to the right incomplete intended for CANION, Elijah thrown to the NMS0. PENALTY LIB Unsportsmanlike Conduct on GRAY, Xavior enforced 15 yards from the NMS6 to the NMS21 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 3:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-15
10.3%
SALTER, Kaidon pass to the right incomplete intended for CANION, Elijah thrown to the NMS0. PENALTY LIB Unsportsmanlike Conduct on GRAY, Xavior enforced 15 yards from the NMS6 to the NMS21 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 2:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 21
+39
10.4%
Colin Karhu 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 6TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:3812% → 22%
Q1 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
12.2%
Parker Awad run for 3 yds to the NMSU 28Similar
Q1 2:53
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
12.1%
Liberty Penalty, Illegal use of the hands on LUCAS, Billy enforced (Billy Lucas) to the LIB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
12.7%
Mike Washington run for 1 yd to the LIB 39Similar
Q1 2:53
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+1
12.8%
Mike Washington run for 1 yd to the LIB 38Similar
Q1 2:53
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+12
12.6%
Parker Awad pass complete to TJ Pride for 12 yds to the LIB 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
15.1%
Mike Washington run for 5 yds to the LIB 21Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 21
-7
15.0%
Seth McGowan run for 3 yds to the LIB 18 New Mexico State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the LIB 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 31
+11
14.7%
Mike Washington run for 11 yds to the LIB 20Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+7
14.7%
Parker Awad run for 7 yds to the LIB 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
15.1%
AWAD, Parker pass to the right incomplete intended for DAVID, Kordell thrown to the LIB0. PENALTY LIB Pass Interference on BUSH, TJ enforced at the spot of the foul for 8 yards to the LIB5 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 13:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
21.5%
Parker Awad pass complete to Seth McGowan for 5 yds for a TD (Abraham Montano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 1:1182% → 81%
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
17.6%
Billy Lucas run for 3 yds to the LIB 28Similar
Q2 13:15
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
17.4%
Billy Lucas run for 5 yds to the LIB 33Similar
Q2 13:15
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
17.5%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
17.6%
Billy Lucas run for 3 yds to the LIB 28Similar
Q2 13:15
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
17.4%
Billy Lucas run for 5 yds to the LIB 33Similar
Q2 13:15
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
17.5%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:04
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
18.8%
Max Morgan punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jordan Smith at the NMSU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 2:3825% → 30%
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
24.7%
Monte Watkins run for 3 yds to the NMSU 27Similar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+12
24.6%
Monte Watkins run for 12 yds to the NMSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
25.6%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+7
25.4%
Parker Awad pass complete to Latrell Neville for 7 yds to the NMSU 46Similar
Q2 12:04
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+2
24.9%
Parker Awad run for 2 yds to the NMSU 48Similar
Q2 9:26
4TH & 1
OWN 48
0
29.6%
George Eberle punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 9FG
10 plays · 73 yds · 3:3176% → 74%
Q2 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
24.4%
Quinton Cooley run for 5 yds to the LIB 20Similar
Q2 9:26
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+6
24.4%
Vaughn Blue run for 6 yds to the LIB 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
24.2%
Kaidon Salter run for 4 yds to the LIB 30Similar
Q2 9:26
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+52
24.1%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Treon Sibley for 52 yds to the NMSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
22.3%
Quinton Cooley run for 4 yds to the NMSU 14Similar
Q2 9:26
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+2
22.3%
Kaidon Salter run for 2 yds to the NMSU 12Similar
Q2 9:26
3RD & 4
OPP 12
0
22.8%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:55
4TH & 4
OPP 12
+31
26.1%
Colin Karhu 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 10FG
14 plays · 41 yds · 2:5667% → 64%
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
32.8%
Billy Lucas run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 3:33
2ND & 8
50
0
32.5%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:07
4TH & 1
OPP 43
+2
37.2%
Billy Lucas run for 2 yds to the NMSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:05
3RD & 8
50
+7
36.6%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Reese Smith for 7 yds to the NMSU 43Similar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
38.8%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+18
39.2%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Billy Lucas for 18 yds to the NMSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
36.8%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Tyson Mobley for 9 yds to the NMSU 14Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 1
OPP 14
+3
36.7%
Billy Lucas run for 3 yds to the NMSU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
36.7%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
36.7%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 10
OPP 11
0
38.5%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:37
4TH & 10
OPP 11
+29
35.8%
Colin Karhu 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 3:2532% → 38%
Q2 4:16
3RD & 2
OWN 28
-5
31.8%
New Mexico State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NMSU 23Similar
Q2 4:16
3RD & 7
OWN 23
-8
31.5%
Parker Awad sacked by TJ Bush Jr. for a loss of 8 yards to the NMSU 15Similar
Q2 3:33
4TH & 15
OWN 15
0
32.9%
George Eberle punt for 37 yds, downed at the LIB 48Similar
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
39.2%
Seth McGowan run for 5 yds to the NMSU 25Similar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+3
39.1%
Mike Washington run for 3 yds to the NMSU 28Similar
Q2 0:51
3RD & 2
OWN 28
-5
38.0%
New Mexico State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NMSU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
37.6%
[NH] Kneel down by AWAD, Parker at NMS24 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:2436% → 35%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
35.5%
Seth McGowan run for 2 yds to the NMSU 32Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 8
OWN 32
0
35.5%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 8
OWN 32
-8
34.5%
Parker Awad sacked by Larry Jones III and CJ Bazile Jr. for a loss of 8 yards to the NMSU 24Similar
Q3 13:29
4TH & 16
OWN 24
+11
35.2%
George Eberle punt for 50 yds , Brylan Green returns for 11 yds to the LIB 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:5565% → 61%
Q3 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
34.9%
Quinton Cooley run for 3 yds to the LIB 40Similar
Q3 13:29
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+5
34.1%
Quinton Cooley run for 5 yds to the LIB 45Similar
Q3 13:29
3RD & 2
OWN 45
0
33.7%
Quinton Cooley run for no gain to the LIB 45Similar
Q3 11:34
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
38.8%
Max Morgan punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jordan Smith at the NMSU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:4240% → 40%
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-1
39.5%
Monte Watkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMSU 10Similar
Q3 11:34
2ND & 11
OWN 10
+10
39.2%
Seth McGowan run for 10 yds to the NMSU 20Similar
Q3 11:34
3RD & 1
OWN 20
-5
38.8%
New Mexico State Penalty, False Start (Seth McGowan) to the NMSU 15Similar
Q3 11:34
3RD & 6
OWN 15
0
38.1%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:52
4TH & 6
OWN 15
+10
40.3%
George Eberle punt for 59 yds , Tyson Mobley returns for 10 yds to the LIB 36Similar
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-15
40.3%
SALTER, Kaidon pass short to the right complete for 5 yards to SMITH, Reese caught at the LIB40 and advanced to the LIB41 (BARNES, Tayden), out of bounds. PENALTY LIB Illegal use of the hands on DOZIER, Donovan enforced 15 yards from the LIB36 to the LIB21 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -16 yds · 1:4558% → 52%
Q3 9:52
1ST & 25
OWN 21
0
42.1%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:52
2ND & 25
OWN 21
-12
42.5%
Kaidon Salter sacked by Buddha Peleti and Noah Arinze for a loss of 12 yards to the LIB 9Similar
Q3 9:52
3RD & 37
OWN 9
+11
44.1%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Elijah Canion for 11 yds to the LIB 20Similar
Q3 8:07
4TH & 26
OWN 20
0
47.7%
Max Morgan punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jordan Smith at the NMSU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5550% → 48%
Q3 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
49.7%
Mike Washington run for 1 yd to the NMSU 47Similar
Q3 8:07
2ND & 9
OWN 47
0
49.4%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:07
3RD & 9
OWN 47
0
47.4%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:12
4TH & 9
OWN 47
0
47.8%
George Eberle punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 18MISSED FG
8 plays · 53 yds · 3:2754% → 46%
Q3 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
46.5%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Tyson Mobley for 6 yds to the LIB 26Similar
Q3 7:12
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+45
45.3%
Vaughn Blue run for 45 yds to the NMSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
39.6%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:12
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+2
40.4%
Quinton Cooley run for 2 yds to the NMSU 27Similar
Q3 7:12
3RD & 8
OPP 27
-11
42.6%
QB Keeper SALTER, Kaidon rush to the right for a gain of 7 yards to the NMS20, out of bounds. PENALTY LIB Holding on GRAY, Xavior enforced 11 yards from the NMS27 to the NMS38 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 7:12
3RD & 19
OPP 38
+5
46.0%
New Mexico State Penalty, Offsides (Kale Edwards) to the NMSU 33Similar
Q3 7:12
3RD & 14
OPP 33
+6
45.3%
Kaidon Salter run for 6 yds to the NMSU 27Similar
Q3 3:45
4TH & 8
OPP 27
+45
53.8%
Colin Karhu 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 19PUNT
12 plays · 30 yds · 4:0160% → 68%
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
60.4%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+7
59.5%
Seth McGowan run for 7 yds to the NMSU 34Similar
Q3 2:22
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+2
63.0%
Mike Washington run for 2 yds to the NMSU 36Similar
Q3 2:22
4TH & 1
OWN 36
+2
62.4%
Seth McGowan run for 2 yds to the NMSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
65.6%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+3
64.9%
Mike Washington run for 3 yds to the NMSU 41Similar
Q3 2:22
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+15
64.1%
AWAD, Parker pass to the left incomplete intended for DAVID, Kordell thrown to the LIB47. PENALTY LIB Pass Interference on OLIVER, Alex enforced 15 yards to the LIB44 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-3
67.0%
PJ Johnson III run for a loss of 3 yards to the LIB 47Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 13
OPP 47
+4
70.7%
Seth McGowan run for 4 yds to the LIB 43Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 43
0
70.1%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:44
4TH & 9
OPP 43
0
68.3%
George Eberle punt for 30 yds, downed at the LIB 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3733% → 28%
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
66.7%
Billy Lucas run for 4 yds to the LIB 17Similar
Q4 14:44
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+3
66.8%
Quinton Cooley run for 3 yds to the LIB 20Similar
Q4 14:44
3RD & 3
OWN 20
0
68.1%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:07
4TH & 3
OWN 20
0
72.1%
Max Morgan punt for 62 yds, downed at the NMSU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 21FUMBLE RETURN TD
7 plays · 4 yds · 3:2273% → 53%
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
72.6%
Seth McGowan run for 5 yds to the NMSU 23Similar
Q4 13:07
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+4
72.4%
Seth McGowan run for 4 yds to the NMSU 27Similar
Q4 13:07
3RD & 1
OWN 27
0
71.6%
Seth McGowan run for no gain to the NMSU 27Similar
Q4 13:07
4TH & 1
OWN 27
+5
70.4%
MCGOWAN, Seth rush up the middle for a gain of 4 yards to the NMS31 (BAZILE, JR., CJ;CARROLL, Grey). PENALTY Before the snap, LIB Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the NMS27 to the NMS32 and results in a 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
75.6%
Mike Washington run for 2 yds to the NMSU 34Similar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+3
75.3%
Mike Washington run for 3 yds to the NMSU 37Similar
Q4 9:45
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+22
52.9%
CJ Bazile Jr. 22 Yd Fumble Return (Kaidon Salter Run for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 22TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 1:5554% → 84%
Q4 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+22
53.6%
Parker Awad pass complete to PJ Johnson III for 22 yds to the LIB 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+18
58.7%
Parker Awad pass complete to Kordell David for 18 yds to the LIB 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
59.9%
Parker Awad run for 5 yds to the LIB 20Similar
Q4 9:37
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+10
59.8%
AWAD, Parker pass up the middle incomplete thrown to the LIB20; QB hurried by BODNAR, Christian. PENALTY LIB Unsportsmanlike Conduct on BROWN, Jahmar enforced half the distance from the goal, 10 yards from the LIB20 to the LIB10 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 9:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
59.8%
AWAD, Parker pass to the right incomplete intended for DAVID, Kordell thrown to the LIB0. PENALTY LIB Pass Interference on OLIVER, Alex enforced at the spot of the foul for 8 yards to the LIB2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 7:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
84.3%
Parker Awad run for 2 yds for a TD (Abraham Montano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 23TD
6 plays · 82 yds · 2:2619% → 55%
Q4 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+21
81.3%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Treon Sibley for 21 yds to the LIB 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+13
77.9%
Quinton Cooley run for 13 yds to the NMSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
76.4%
Quinton Cooley run for 4 yds to the NMSU 44Similar
Q4 7:38
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+10
76.1%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Darius Copeland for 10 yds to the NMSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
74.6%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Tyson Mobley for 7 yds to the NMSU 27Similar
Q4 5:12
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+27
44.6%
Quinton Cooley run for 27 yds for a TD (Colin Karhu KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 24PUNT
8 plays · 29 yds · 2:1363% → 76%
Q4 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
63.1%
Seth McGowan run for 3 yds to the NMSU 28Similar
Q4 5:12
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+19
63.0%
Seth McGowan run for 19 yds to the NMSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
75.4%
Seth McGowan run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:48
2ND & 7
50
+2
75.5%
Mike Washington run for 2 yds to the LIB 48Similar
Q4 3:04
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+2
77.7%
Parker Awad pass complete to Seth McGowan for 2 yds to the LIB 46Similar
Q4 2:59
4TH & 3
OPP 46
0
75.6%
George Eberle punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Brylan Green at the LIB 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 25TD
9 plays · 90 yds · 1:5434% → 96%
Q4 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
65.8%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Bentley Hanshaw for 4 yds to the LIB 14Similar
Q4 2:59
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+2
66.1%
Billy Lucas run for 2 yds to the LIB 16Similar
Q4 1:55
3RD & 4
OWN 16
+5
69.8%
Kaidon Salter run for 5 yds to the LIB 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+16
67.4%
Kaidon Salter run for 16 yds to the LIB 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
64.4%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Treon Sibley for 11 yds to the LIB 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
65.7%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Treon Sibley for 8 yds to the NMSU 44Similar
Q4 1:05
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+44
3.7%
Quinton Cooley run for 44 yds for a TD (Kaidon Salter pass to Reese Smith for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 26DOWNS
6 plays · -15 yds · 0:3413% → 8%
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
13.2%
New Mexico State Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Parker Awad) to the NMSU 15Similar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 20
OWN 15
-5
10.0%
New Mexico State Penalty, Illegal Snap on YARRO, Canaan enforced (Canaan Yarro) to the NMSU 10Similar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 25
OWN 10
0
10.0%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:48
3RD & 25
OWN 10
0
9.8%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:31
4TH & 25
OWN 10
0
7.8%
Parker Awad pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 27END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
3.1%
[NH] Kneel down by SALTER, Kaidon at NMS11 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:05
Quinton Cooley run for 44 yds for a TD (Kaidon Salter pass to Reese Smith for Two-Point Conversion)
-62.1
TD · Q4 5:12
Quinton Cooley run for 27 yds for a TD (Colin Karhu KICK)
-30
TD · Q4 7:42
Parker Awad run for 2 yds for a TD (Abraham Montano KICK)
+24.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com