2024 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2024 · Fifth Third Stadium
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Win probability · KENN
modelKENN aheadFIU aheadconfidence bandkey playKENN scoreFIU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 7:36 · Ross Fournet run for 49 yds to the KENN 18 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 6:54: Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Eric Rivers for 18 yds for a TD (Alejandro Prado PAT MISSED) — FIU win probability +11.0 pts (now 64%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:18: Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Dean Patterson for 20 yds for a TD (Robert Czeremcha KICK) — FIU win probability +15.9 pts (now 62%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:00: Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Eric Rivers for 42 yds for a TD (Robert Czeremcha KICK) — FIU win probability +12.9 pts (now 71%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 5:59: Davis Bryson run for 19 yds for a TD (Austin Welch KICK) — KENN win probability +36.2 pts (now 53%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
- FG · Q4 1:04: Austin Welch 19 yd FG GOOD — KENN win probability +34.5 pts (now 79%) (top driver: KENN has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
KENN made the numbers' call on 9 of 9FIU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
- Q1 12:13KENN 4th & 8 at FIU 18, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.8% before the snapGo for it30.7%−0.132% to convertField goalTheir call30.7%79% to makePunt30.3%−0.4average punt
- Q1 7:59FIU 4th & 6 at KENN 6, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.0% before the snapGo for it66.8%−<0.131% to convertField goalTheir call66.8%91% to makePunt65.5%−1.4average punt
- Q1 4:24KENN 4th & 7 at KENN 43, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.8% before the snapGo for it34.9%−0.337% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call35.1%average punt
- Q1 0:07FIU 4th & 4 at midfield, down 3Close callPunted · 62.8% before the snapGo for it63.1%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call62.8%−0.3average punt
- Q2 7:36FIU 4th & 2 at FIU 33, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call49.2%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt49.1%−0.1average punt
- Q2 1:45KENN 4th & 9 at KENN 32, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.7% before the snapGo for it44.9%−1.031% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call45.9%average punt
- Q2 0:05KENN 4th & 10 at FIU 44, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.6% before the snapGo for it35.2%−1.030% to convertField goal34.2%−2.027% to makePuntTheir call36.2%average punt
- Q3 11:23FIU 4th & 8 at KENN 18, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.2% before the snapGo for it61.7%−1.332% to convertField goalTheir call63.0%79% to makePunt54.9%−8.1average punt
- Q3 9:10FIU 4th & 3 at KENN 16, up 6Close callKicked a field goal · 71.7% before the snapGo for it71.4%51% to convertField goalTheir call70.9%−0.581% to makePunt63.0%−8.4average punt
- Q3 5:57KENN 4th & 7 at FIU 45, down 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.4% before the snapGo for it25.9%−<0.137% to convertField goal24.2%−1.725% to makePuntTheir call26.0%average punt
- Q3 3:46FIU 4th & 2 at FIU 19, up 9Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 74.3% before the snapGo for it75.3%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call74.2%−1.1average punt
- Q3 2:46KENN 4th & 22 at KENN 36, down 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.7% before the snapGo for it19.7%−4.38% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.9%average punt
- Q3 0:10FIU 4th & 10 at FIU 20, up 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.1% before the snapGo for it75.2%−1.927% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call77.1%average punt
- Q4 13:19FIU 4th & 6 at FIU 39, up 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.7% before the snapGo for it78.6%−0.340% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call78.9%average punt
- Q4 11:25KENN 4th & 10 at KENN 37, down 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.2% before the snapGo for it18.2%−1.429% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.6%average punt
- Q4 10:11FIU 4th & 6 at FIU 25, up 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.5% before the snapGo for it80.8%−0.938% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call81.7%average punt
- Q4 8:37KENN 4th & 10 at FIU 26, down 9Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.9% before the snapGo for it15.7%−2.629% to convertField goalTheir call18.2%64% to makePunt9.2%−9.0average punt
- Q4 7:20FIU 4th & 16 at FIU 20, up 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.5% before the snapGo for it81.7%−3.714% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call85.5%average punt
- Q4 1:04KENN 4th & 1 at FIU 1, down 2Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.0% before the snapGo for it53.3%−10.159% to convertField goalTheir call63.4%94% to makePunt13.7%−49.7average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KENN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3FIU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q2 10:19KENN Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call49.0%97% to makeGo for two48.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:54FIU Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call56.9%97% to makeGo for two56.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:48KENN Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call57.1%97% to makeGo for two57.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:18FIU Touchdown, down 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call51.9%97% to makeGo for two51.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:00FIU Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call63.6%97% to makeGo for two63.4%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 5:59KENN Touchdown, down 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call34.7%97% to makeGo for two32.2%−2.545% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartKENNDrive 1FG5 plays · 46 yds · 2:4025% → 27%
Q1 12:44
3RD & 11
OPP 21
+3
26.2%
Davis Bryson pass complete to Qua Ashley for 3 yds to the FIU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 2MISSED FG9 plays · 62 yds · 3:5773% → 71%
KENNDrive 3PUNT10 plays · 23 yds · 3:2629% → 31%
Q1 5:28
2ND & 16
OWN 25
+15
30.3%
Florida International Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the KENN 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:25
2ND & 6
OWN 35
-10
30.7%
(05:25) QB Keeper BRYSON, Davis rush to the left for a gain of 22 yards to the FIU43 (MASSES, Hezekiah), clock 05:28. PENALTY KSU Holding on RUCKS, Jamar enforced 10 yards from the KSU35 to the KSU25 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 4:24
4TH & 7
OWN 43
0
30.8%
Jacob Ulrich punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Dean Patterson at the FIU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 4PUNT9 plays · 37 yds · 4:0769% → 67%
KENNDrive 5TD10 plays · 82 yds · 4:4134% → 44%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+27
33.5%
Davis Bryson pass complete to Gabriel Benyard for 27 yds to the KENN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
34.7%
Davis Bryson pass complete to Tykeem Wallace for 7 yds to the FIU 48Similar
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
36.0%
Davis Bryson pass complete to Gabriel Benyard for 1 yd to the FIU 42Similar
Q2 12:20
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+24
36.6%
Davis Bryson pass complete to Qua Ashley for 24 yds to the FIU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:54
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+10
38.3%
Davis Bryson pass complete to Jaden Robinson for 10 yds to the FIU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 6TD6 plays · 75 yds · 3:1457% → 64%
Q2 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
43.1%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Devonte Lyons for 6 yds to the FIU 31Similar
Q2 9:23
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-5
43.5%
(09:23) JENKINS, Keyone pass short to the left complete for 15 yards to RIVERS, Eric caught at the FIU34 and advanced to the FIU46 (BILLINGSLEY, Que), clock 09:30. PENALTY Before the snap, FIU Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the FIU31 to the FIU26. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 8:20
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+1
45.3%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Lexington Joseph for 1 yd to the FIU 33Similar
Q2 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
35.8%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Eric Rivers for 18 yds for a TD (Alejandro Prado PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 7TD7 plays · 60 yds · 3:0442% → 55%
FIUDrive 8TD3 plays · 71 yds · 1:0946% → 62%
KENNDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:3345% → 43%
Q2 1:45
4TH & 9
OWN 32
+6
43.3%
Jacob Ulrich punt for 44 yds , Dean Patterson returns for 6 yds to the FIU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 10TD4 plays · 70 yds · 0:3657% → 71%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
29.0%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Eric Rivers for 42 yds for a TD (Robert Czeremcha KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 11PUNT10 plays · 29 yds · 0:5533% → 30%
Q2 0:45
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+7
31.6%
Davis Bryson pass complete to Carson Kent for 7 yds to the KENN 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
31.0%
Davis Bryson pass complete to Qua Ashley for no gain to the KENN 41Similar
Q2 0:28
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+15
30.0%
Davis Bryson pass complete to Carson Kent for 15 yds to the FIU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 12END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
31.4%
[NH] Kneel down by JENKINS, Keyone at FIU19 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 13FG8 plays · 31 yds · 3:2869% → 72%
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-5
30.2%
(13:26) JENKINS, Keyone pass deep to the left incomplete intended for RIVERS, Eric thrown to the KSU0, clock 13:29. PENALTY FIU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on BURKE, Travis enforced 5 yards from the KSU20 to the KSU25 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 14FG5 plays · 7 yds · 1:5775% → 77%
Q3 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-10
25.2%
Florida International Penalty, Offensive Holding (Naeer Jackson) to the KENN 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 15PUNT8 plays · 44 yds · 2:5324% → 24%
FIUDrive 16PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5777% → 76%
KENNDrive 17PUNT4 plays · -12 yds · 0:4726% → 22%
FIUDrive 18PUNT6 plays · 10 yds · 2:2478% → 78%
KENNDrive 19INT2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
FIUDrive 20PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3080% → 80%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 21PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 1:5922% → 19%
FIUDrive 22PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0280% → 82%
Q4 10:11
4TH & 6
OWN 25
+7
17.9%
Daton Montiel punt for 49 yds , Gabriel Benyard returns for 7 yds to the KENN 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 23MISSED FG8 plays · 41 yds · 1:4118% → 16%
FIUDrive 24PUNT4 plays · -6 yds · 1:2187% → 86%
KENNDrive 25TD3 plays · 51 yds · 1:0116% → 53%
FIUDrive 26FUMBLE4 plays · 8 yds · 2:1166% → 75%
Q4 4:54
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
30.7%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Eric Rivers for 2 yds to the FIU 32Similar
Q4 4:09
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
27.4%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Eric Rivers for 5 yds to the FIU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-4
25.4%
Keyone Jenkins sacked for a loss of 4 yards to the FIU 33 Keyone Jenkins fumbled, recovered by KENN Tylon Dunlap , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 27FG11 plays · 32 yds · 2:3449% → 81%
FIUDrive 28INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0834% → 33%
KENNDrive 29END OF GAME2 plays · -5 yds · 0:2682% → 91%
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:59
Davis Bryson run for 19 yds for a TD (Austin Welch KICK)
+36.2
FG · Q4 1:04
Austin Welch 19 yd FG GOOD
+34.5
TD · Q2 2:18
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Dean Patterson for 20 yds for a TD (Robert Czeremcha KICK)
-15.9