2024 · Week 12 · Nov 16, 2024 · AmFirst Stadium
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Win probability · JXST
modelJXST aheadFIU aheadconfidence bandkey playJXST scoreFIU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:58 · Daton Montiel punt for 31 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 1:45: Shomari Lawrence run for 3 yds for a TD (Alejandro Prado KICK) — FIU win probability +11.7 pts (now 38%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:37: Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Eric Rivers for 5 yds for a TD (Alejandro Prado KICK) — FIU win probability +15.3 pts (now 47%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:22: Tyler Huff pass complete to Sean Brown for 56 yds for a TD (Garrison Rippa KICK) — JXST win probability +24.7 pts (now 77%) (top driver: JXST has the ball).
- TD · Q4 12:25: Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Antonio Ferguson for 39 yds for a TD (Alejandro Prado KICK) — FIU win probability +31.5 pts (now 63%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 9:55: Tre Stewart run for 56 yds for a TD (Garrison Rippa KICK) — JXST win probability +28.7 pts (now 77%) (top driver: JXST has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
JXST made the numbers' call on 8 of 9FIU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
- Q1 9:02FIU 4th & 10 at JXST 18, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.5% before the snapGo for it21.3%−0.127% to convertField goalTheir call21.5%79% to makePunt20.9%−0.6average punt
- Q1 4:20JXST 4th & 6 at FIU 13, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.5% before the snapGo for it76.4%−0.137% to convertField goalTheir call76.5%85% to makePunt75.2%−1.3average punt
- Q2 9:40FIU 4th & 9 at JXST 41, tiedClose callPunted · 26.9% before the snapGo for it26.7%32% to convertField goal26.3%−0.332% to makePuntTheir call26.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 8:32JXST 4th & 2 at JXST 18, tiedClose callPunted · 72.8% before the snapGo for it72.8%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call72.5%−0.2average punt
- Q3 14:04JXST 4th & 10 at JXST 25, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.6% before the snapGo for it71.9%−1.728% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call73.6%average punt
- Q3 10:16FIU 4th & 2 at JXST 17, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call29.0%56% to convertField goal27.9%−1.180% to makePunt20.2%−8.8average punt
- Q3 7:21JXST 4th & 10 at JXST 25, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.3% before the snapGo for it53.7%−2.728% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call56.5%average punt
- Q3 6:27FIU 4th & 3 at FIU 35, up 4Close callPunted · 44.4% before the snapGo for it46.0%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call45.6%−0.4average punt
- Q3 4:17JXST 4th & 1 at FIU 40, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call55.9%70% to convertField goal50.2%−5.734% to makePunt50.7%−5.2average punt
- Q3 2:36JXST 4th & 18 at FIU 47, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.3% before the snapGo for it47.5%−3.813% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call51.3%average punt
- Q4 14:58FIU 4th & 6 at FIU 29, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.3% before the snapGo for it52.7%−1.239% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call53.9%average punt
- Q4 11:21JXST 4th & 1 at JXST 33, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call45.6%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt42.3%−3.3average punt
- Q4 9:55JXST 4th & 1 at JXST 44, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call45.9%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt40.7%−5.1average punt
- Q4 6:50FIU 4th & 5 at FIU 44, down 3Close callPunted · 29.7% before the snapGo for it27.9%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call27.3%−0.6average punt
- Q4 3:04JXST 4th & 5 at JXST 34, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.0% before the snapGo for it79.5%−1.541% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call81.1%average punt
- Q4 1:56FIU 4th & 5 at FIU 23, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call16.1%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt13.4%−2.8average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
JXST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4FIU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q2 14:54FIU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call28.4%97% to makeGo for two28.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:16JXST Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call73.4%97% to makeGo for two73.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:44JXST Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call78.8%97% to makeGo for two78.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:45FIU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call27.3%97% to makeGo for two27.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:37FIU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call42.5%97% to makeGo for two42.4%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 14:22JXST Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call70.5%97% to makeGo for two70.2%−0.345% to convert
- Q4 12:25FIU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call52.5%97% to makeGo for two52.1%−0.345% to convert
- Q4 9:55JXST Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call71.1%97% to makeGo for two70.5%−0.645% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartFIUDrive 1FG13 plays · 57 yds · 5:5823% → 25%
Q1 14:20
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+14
76.7%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Dean Patterson for 14 yds to the FIU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+14
76.5%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Dean Patterson for 14 yds to the JVST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:41
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+9
76.1%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Dean Patterson for 9 yds to the JVST 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 12
OPP 30
+10
75.6%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to C'Quan Jnopierre for 10 yds to the JVST 20Similar
Q1 9:48
3RD & 10
OPP 18
0
75.3%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Eric Rivers for no gain to the JVST 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 2FG12 plays · 62 yds · 4:4175% → 75%
Q1 7:57
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+12
75.1%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Jordan McCants for 12 yds to the FIU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
75.1%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Michael Pettway for 8 yds to the FIU 33Similar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 11
OPP 31
+14
74.8%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Michael Pettway for 14 yds to the FIU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 3TD9 plays · 75 yds · 4:2626% → 34%
Q1 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
73.1%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Devonte Lyons for 7 yds to the FIU 47Similar
Q1 1:49
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+8
72.1%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Devonte Lyons for 8 yds to the JVST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
71.7%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Eric Rivers for 15 yds to the JVST 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:16
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+14
70.7%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Dean Patterson for 14 yds to the JVST 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 4TD9 plays · 75 yds · 3:3668% → 74%
Q2 14:33
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+14
67.6%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Tre Stewart for 14 yds to the JVST 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
68.2%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Tre Stewart for no gain to the JVST 42Similar
Q2 13:11
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+16
67.5%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Jordan McCants for 16 yds to the FIU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 11 yds · 1:2030% → 30%
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+10
69.6%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Dean Patterson for 10 yds to the JVST 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:0172% → 70%
Q2 8:32
4TH & 2
OWN 18
+5
70.1%
Jack Dawson punt for 38 yds , Dean Patterson returns for 5 yds to the FIU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 7FUMBLE1 play · 19 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+19
68.1%
Devonte Lyons run for 19 yds to the JVST 32 Devonte Lyons fumbled, recovered by JVST Zechariah Poyser Z. Poyser return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 8TD9 plays · 68 yds · 3:2472% → 80%
Q2 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+35
71.6%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Brock Rechsteiner for 35 yds to the FIU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:03
3RD & 8
OPP 31
-3
72.7%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Brock Rechsteiner for a loss of 3 yards to the FIU 34Similar
Q2 6:20
4TH & 11
OPP 34
-5
70.3%
(06:20) HUFF, Tyler pass deep to the right complete for 19 yards to VAUGHN, Cam caught at the FIU15 and advanced to the FIU15 (BLADES II, Brian), clock 06:05. PENALTY JSU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on VAUGHN, Cam enforced 5 yards from the FIU34 to the FIU39 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 5:40
4TH & 16
OPP 39
+15
69.6%
(05:40) HUFF, Tyler pass deep to the left incomplete intended for VAUGHN, Cam thrown to the FIU0, clock 05:37. PENALTY FIU Pass Interference on MASSES, Hezekiah enforced 15 yards to the FIU24 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 9TD8 plays · 75 yds · 2:5922% → 38%
Q2 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
77.6%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Dean Patterson for 10 yds to the FIU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+16
76.0%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Eric Rivers for 16 yds to the JVST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
74.0%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Dean Patterson for 6 yds to the JVST 18Similar
Q2 1:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
73.4%
(01:53) JENKINS, Keyone pass to the left incomplete intended for PATTERSON, Dean thrown to the JSU1, clock 01:47. PENALTY JSU Holding on MACK, Jabari enforced half the distance from the goal, 4 yards from the JSU7 to the JSU3 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 10FG14 plays · 51 yds · 1:4469% → 76%
Q2 1:20
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+10
68.4%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Michael Pettway for 10 yds to the JVST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
71.5%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Jordan McCants for 7 yds to the FIU 42Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 3
OPP 42
-10
71.5%
Tyler Huff sacked by Eddie Walls III for a loss of 10 yards to the JVST 48Similar
Q2 0:21
3RD & 13
OWN 48
+14
68.0%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Michael Pettway for 14 yds to the FIU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+14
71.3%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Jacob Barrick for 14 yds to the FIU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 11PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5672% → 71%
Q3 14:04
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
70.7%
Jack Dawson punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Dean Patterson at the FIU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 12TD15 plays · 74 yds · 6:1229% → 47%
Q3 13:15
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+28
72.0%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Dean Patterson for 28 yds to the JVST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+18
68.3%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Eric Rivers for 18 yds to the JVST 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:59
3RD & 8
OPP 23
+6
68.1%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to C'Quan Jnopierre for 6 yds to the JVST 17Similar
Q3 9:01
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+8
67.1%
(09:01) JENKINS, Keyone sacked for a loss of 8 yards at the JSU18 (SWAIN, J-Rock), clock 08:53. PENALTY JSU Holding on MCCRAY, Ky'won enforced half the distance from the goal, 5 yards from the JSU10 to the JSU5 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 7:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
52.6%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Eric Rivers for 5 yds for a TD (Alejandro Prado KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1657% → 54%
Q3 7:21
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
54.0%
Jack Dawson punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Dean Patterson at the FIU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 14PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 0:4647% → 46%
Q3 6:27
4TH & 3
OWN 35
+21
53.6%
Daton Montiel punt for 47 yds , Samario Rudolph returns for 21 yds to the JVST 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 15PUNT12 plays · 14 yds · 3:4557% → 47%
Q3 6:10
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+8
56.9%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Jordan McCants for 8 yds to the JVST 47Similar
Q3 5:03
2ND & 5
OPP 44
-1
60.1%
Tyler Huff sacked by Giovanni Davis for a loss of 1 yard to the FIU 45Similar
Q3 3:15
3RD & 9
OPP 38
-9
55.3%
Tyler Huff sacked by Eddie Walls III for a loss of 9 yards to the FIU 47Similar
Q3 2:36
4TH & 18
OPP 47
0
49.9%
Jack Dawson punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Dean Patterson at the FIU 11Similar
Q3 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-5
47.3%
Florida International Penalty, Illegal Snap on BOCK II, John enforced (John Bock II) to the FIU 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 16PUNT7 plays · 18 yds · 2:3152% → 53%
JXSTDrive 17TD2 plays · 60 yds · 0:3153% → 77%
FIUDrive 18TD4 plays · 75 yds · 1:5728% → 63%
JXSTDrive 19TD8 plays · 76 yds · 2:2347% → 77%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 20PUNT6 plays · 19 yds · 3:0528% → 29%
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
71.7%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Antonio Ferguson for 3 yds to the FIU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 21PUNT6 plays · 23 yds · 3:3477% → 83%
Q4 3:04
4TH & 5
OWN 34
0
83.1%
Jack Dawson punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Dean Patterson at the FIU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 22DOWNS4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0226% → 21%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:25
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Antonio Ferguson for 39 yds for a TD (Alejandro Prado KICK)
-31.5
TD · Q4 9:55
Tre Stewart run for 56 yds for a TD (Garrison Rippa KICK)
+28.7
TD · Q4 14:22
Tyler Huff pass complete to Sean Brown for 56 yds for a TD (Garrison Rippa KICK)
+24.7