2024 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2024 · Yankee Stadium
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Win probability · ND
modelND aheadARMY aheadconfidence bandkey playND scoreARMY score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:18 · Bryson Daily run for 1 yd to the ND 43
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 6:30: Jeremiyah Love 6 Yd pass from Riley Leonard (Mitch Jeter Kick) — ND win probability +1.7 pts (now 88%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
- TD · Q2 13:53: Bryson Daily 4 Yd Run (Trey Gronotte Kick) — ARMY win probability +3.8 pts (now 17%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:35: Jeremiyah Love 14 Yd Run (Mitch Jeter Kick) — ND win probability +4.1 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:26: Jadarian Price 2 Yd Run (Mitch Jeter Kick) — ND win probability +5.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
- TD · Q3 14:44: Jeremiyah Love 68 Yd Run (Mitch Jeter Kick) — ND win probability +3.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ND made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ARMY made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
- Q1 12:41ARMY 4th & 2 at ARMY 34, tiedClose callPunted · 17.2% before the snapGo for it17.3%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 8:08ARMY 4th & 8 at ARMY 27, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.8% before the snapGo for it16.8%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.9%average punt
- Q2 8:06ND 4th & 1 at ARMY 1, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call82.2%59% to convertField goal81.0%−1.294% to makePunt78.1%−4.1average punt
- Q2 5:58ARMY 4th & 3 at ARMY 9, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.2% before the snapGo for it16.9%−<0.151% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.0%average punt
- Q2 2:40ARMY 4th & 23 at ARMY 12, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.4% before the snapGo for it11.0%−1.66% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.6%average punt
- Q3 10:47ARMY 4th & 4 at ARMY 33, down 28Close callWent for it · 0.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.9%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.0%average punt
- Q3 8:37ND 4th & 5 at ARMY 12, up 28Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.3% before the snapGo for it99.3%−<0.138% to convertField goalTheir call99.3%86% to makePunt98.4%−0.8average punt
- Q3 4:18ARMY 4th & 2 at ND 44, down 28Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.5%57% to convertField goal0.2%−0.227% to makePunt0.3%−0.1average punt
- Q4 10:52ARMY 4th & 3 at ND 39, down 35Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%53% to convertField goal0.0%−0.136% to makePunt0.0%−0.1average punt
- Q4 0:32ARMY 4th & 2 at ND 3, down 42Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%49% to convertField goal0.0%−<0.193% to makePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ND made the numbers' call on 7 of 7ARMY made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 10:24ND Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.8%97% to makeGo for two82.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 6:30ND Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.7%97% to makeGo for two84.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:53ARMY Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call18.1%97% to makeGo for two18.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:35ND Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.4%97% to makeGo for two87.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:26ND Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.6%97% to makeGo for two95.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 14:44ND Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.3%97% to makeGo for two97.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:45ND Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:40ND Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 0:22ARMY Touchdown, down 36 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.0%97% to makeGo for two0.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartARMYDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 2:0814% → 14%
Q1 12:41
4TH & 2
OWN 34
+15
85.7%
James Wagenseller punt for 49 yds , Max Hurleman returns for 15 yds to the ND 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 2TD5 plays · 68 yds · 2:1186% → 86%
ARMYDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 2:1114% → 14%
Q1 9:34
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-3
85.7%
Bryson Daily sacked by Junior Tuihalamaka and Rylie Mills for a loss of 3 yards to the ARMY 23Similar
Q1 8:08
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+9
85.9%
James Wagenseller punt blocked by Bryce Young, recovered by NOTREDAME Heard II, Rod at ARMY16. Rod Heard II return for 9 yds to the ARMY 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 4TD3 plays · 7 yds · 1:3486% → 88%
ARMYDrive 5TD15 plays · 75 yds · 7:3113% → 17%
Q1 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+21
87.0%
Kanye Udoh run for 6 yds to the ND 43 for a 1ST down Notre Dame Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Jaiden Ausberry) to the ND 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:28
4TH & 1
OPP 33
+5
86.8%
Notre Dame Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jaylen Sneed) to the ND 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+4
87.1%
Bryson Daily run for no gain to the ND 8 for a 1ST down Notre Dame Penalty, Personal Foul (Rylie Mills) to the ND 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 6DOWNS11 plays · 73 yds · 5:3985% → 85%
ARMYDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 2:0315% → 15%
Q2 5:58
4TH & 3
OWN 9
0
85.5%
James Wagenseller punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Max Hurleman at the ARMY 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 8TD3 plays · 41 yds · 1:1686% → 90%
ARMYDrive 9PUNT6 plays · -13 yds · 1:4611% → 11%
Q2 3:07
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-11
89.2%
Daily, Bryson pass complete to Reed, Hayden for 16 yards to the ARMY39, PENALTY ARMY personal foul 11 yards to the ARMY12, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 10TD9 plays · 50 yds · 2:0691% → 96%
ARMYDrive 11FUMBLE2 plays · 0 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
95.3%
Bryson Daily run for 19 yds to the ARMY 44 Bryson Daily fumbled, forced by Leonard Moore, recovered by ND Jack KiserSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 12MISSED FG6 plays · 14 yds · 0:1596% → 97%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
96.4%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jayden Thomas for 15 yds to the ARMY 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 13TD3 plays · 68 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
ARMYDrive 14DOWNS8 plays · 19 yds · 3:496% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 15MISSED FG5 plays · 23 yds · 2:0199% → 99%
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+18
99.3%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 18 yds to the ARMY 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:37
4TH & 5
OPP 12
+30
99.4%
Mitch Jeter 30 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Elo Modozie, recovered by ARMY Larkin, Casey at ARMY7. Casey Larkin return for 30 yds to the ARMY 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 16DOWNS7 plays · 20 yds · 4:141% → 0%
Q3 4:55
3RD & 13
OWN 45
+11
99.6%
Bryson Daily pass complete to Casey Reynolds for 11 yds to the ND 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 17TD8 plays · 57 yds · 3:29100% → 100%
Q3 3:54
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+12
99.7%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Beaux Collins for 12 yds to the ARMY 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
99.7%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Jayden Harrison for 6 yds to the ARMY 37Similar
Q3 2:49
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+5
99.7%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Beaux Collins for 5 yds to the ARMY 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:32
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+18
99.8%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Jordan Faison for 18 yds to the ARMY 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 18DOWNS14 plays · 49 yds · 4:390% → 0%
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
99.8%
Bryson Daily pass complete to Noah Short for 9 yds to the ARMY 33Similar
Q4 12:50
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
99.9%
Bryson Daily pass incomplete to Casey Reynolds, broken up by Christian GraySimilar
Q4 12:38
4TH & 9
OWN 39
+15
99.9%
Daily, Bryson pass incomplete to Reynolds, Casey, PENALTY NOTREDAME roughing passer (Kiser, Jack) 15 yards to the NOTREDAME46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARMY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 19TD1 play · 58 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 20TD19 plays · 75 yds · 10:100% → 0%
NDDrive 21END OF GAME2 plays · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:26
Jadarian Price 2 Yd Run (Mitch Jeter Kick)
+5.2
TD · Q2 4:35
Jeremiyah Love 14 Yd Run (Mitch Jeter Kick)
+4.1
TD · Q2 13:53
Bryson Daily 4 Yd Run (Trey Gronotte Kick)
-3.8