Try the model
MRMK

Merrimack 17 at UConn 63

CONN
2024 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2024 · Pratt & Whitney Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · CONN
modelCONN aheadMRMK aheadconfidence bandkey playCONN scoreMRMK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:48 · Connor Stutz punt for 36 yds , Jalen McDonald returns for 7 yds to the MRMK 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 138Home team on offense+33.8Score differential+29.6Pregame prior+3.4Blowout margin+16.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+17.9Garbage-time factor+13.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:49: Durell Robinson run for 48 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK) — CONN win probability +2.4 pts (now 86%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 4:40: Victor Rosa run for 29 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK) — CONN win probability +2.8 pts (now 90%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q1 1:39: Jermaine Corbett run for 46 yds for a TD (Lliam Davis KICK) — MRMK win probability +3.9 pts (now 12%) (top driver: MRMK has the ball).
  4. TD · Q1 0:27: Joe Fagnano pass complete to Skyler Bell for 60 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK) — CONN win probability +4.9 pts (now 94%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 13:18: Joe Fagnano pass complete to Shamar Porter for 39 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK) — MRMK win probability +2.1 pts (now 8%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CONN made the numbers' call on 3 of 5MRMK made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 8:05MRMK 4th & 8 at MRMK 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.4%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:30MRMK 4th & 10 at MRMK 21, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.5%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.9%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:22MRMK 4th & 2 at MRMK 24, down 28
    Close callPunted · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.5%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:47MRMK 4th & 10 at MRMK 44, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.9%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:15MRMK 4th & 8 at MRMK 27, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:54MRMK 4th & 18 at MRMK 36, down 49
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:14MRMK 4th & 13 at MRMK 7, down 49
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:37CONN 4th & 3 at MRMK 34, up 49
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%
    53% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.3%−0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:35MRMK 4th & 10 at MRMK 44, down 49
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:39MRMK 4th & 1 at MRMK 36, down 56
    Close callPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:27CONN 4th & 2 at CONN 49, up 56
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.7%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:00CONN 4th & 1 at MRMK 24, up 56
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.1
    68% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:53MRMK 4th & 19 at MRMK 45, down 56
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.1
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:50CONN 4th & 3 at MRMK 29, up 56
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%−0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    99.6%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:48CONN 4th & 1 at CONN 34, up 49
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    100.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:00MRMK 4th & 5 at CONN 14, down 49
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.0%
    84% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CONN made the numbers' call on 9 of 9MRMK made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 13:00CONN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:41CONN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 7:49CONN Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 4:40CONN Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q1 1:39MRMK Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q1 0:27CONN Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 13:18CONN Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 5:58CONN Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q2 3:24CONN Touchdown, up 48 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 6:10CONN Touchdown, up 55 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 7:31MRMK Touchdown, down 50 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CONNDrive 1TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:3882% → 82%
Q1 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+45
81.9%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Skyler Bell for 45 yds to the MRMK 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+19
81.9%
Joe Fagnano run for 19 yds to the MRMK 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
81.9%
Cam Edwards run for 5 yds to the MRMK 6Similar
Q1 13:23
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+5
81.8%
Joe Fagnano run for 5 yds to the MRMK 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
82.1%
Joe Fagnano run for 1 yd for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRMKDrive 2Uncategorized
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3618% → 18%
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-18
81.9%
run for a loss of 18 yards to the MRMK 7Similar
Q1 12:17
2ND & 28
OWN 7
+1
81.9%
Jermaine Corbett run for 1 yd to the MRMK 8Similar
Q1 11:36
3RD & 27
OWN 8
+24
82.0%
Malakai Anthony pass complete to Jared Dunn for 24 yds to the MRMK 32Similar
Q1 11:22
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
81.9%
(11:22) PETERSON, Cole punt 39 yards to the UCN29, SHEFFIELD, TJ return of 25 yards to the MC36 nullified (WILBORN JR., James), out of bounds, clock 11:13. PENALTY UCN Illegal Block in the Back on BELL, Malcolm enforced 0 yards MC Unnecessary Roughness on WILBORN JR., James enforced 0 yards after the change of possession from the UCN21 to the UCN31, from the the spot of the ball when the foul occurred [FAKE PUNT]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 3TD
4 plays · 64 yds · 1:3082% → 83%
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
82.0%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Ezeriah Anderson for 10 yds to the CONN 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
82.1%
Joe Fagnano pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:31
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+4
82.0%
Cam Edwards run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:41
3RD & 6
50
+50
83.3%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Cam Edwards for 50 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRMKDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3517% → 17%
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
82.9%
Jermaine Corbett run for a loss of 3 yards to the MRMK 22Similar
Q1 8:53
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+5
83.1%
Jermaine Corbett run for 5 yds to the MRMK 27Similar
Q1 8:13
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
83.3%
Malakai Anthony pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:05
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+18
83.4%
Cole Peterson punt for 39 yds , TJ Sheffield returns for 18 yds to the MRMK 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 5TD
1 play · 48 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
85.8%
Durell Robinson run for 48 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRMKDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:1114% → 14%
Q1 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-5
85.7%
Merrimack Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MRMK 16Similar
Q1 7:40
1ST & 15
OWN 16
+3
85.8%
Malakai Anthony pass complete to Donovan Wadley for 3 yds to the MRMK 19Similar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 12
OWN 19
0
85.9%
Jermaine Corbett run for no gain to the MRMK 19Similar
Q1 6:48
3RD & 12
OWN 19
+2
86.2%
Malakai Anthony pass complete to Jelani Mason for 2 yds to the MRMK 21Similar
Q1 6:30
4TH & 10
OWN 21
+13
86.4%
Cole Peterson punt for 46 yds , TJ Sheffield returns for 13 yds to the CONN 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 7TD
4 plays · 54 yds · 1:3686% → 90%
Q1 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
86.4%
Victor Rosa run for 2 yds to the CONN 48Similar
Q1 5:53
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+15
86.6%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Jasaiah Gathings for 15 yds to the MRMK 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
86.9%
Joe Fagnano run for 8 yds to the MRMK 29Similar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 2
OPP 29
+29
89.7%
Victor Rosa run for 29 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRMKDrive 8TD
6 plays · 82 yds · 2:539% → 12%
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
91.1%
Donovan Wadley run for 5 yds to the MRMK 23Similar
Q1 3:56
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+7
91.4%
Jermaine Corbett run for 7 yds to the MRMK 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
91.9%
Jermaine Corbett run for 15 yds to the MRMK 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
92.3%
Malakai Anthony run for 8 yds to the CONN 47Similar
Q1 2:13
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+1
92.1%
Jermaine Corbett run for 1 yd to the CONN 46Similar
Q1 1:39
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+46
88.2%
Jermaine Corbett run for 46 yds for a TD (Lliam Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 9TD
2 plays · 62 yds · 0:4689% → 94%
Q1 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
88.7%
Mel Brown run for 2 yds to the CONN 40Similar
Q1 0:27
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+60
93.6%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Skyler Bell for 60 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRMKDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:586% → 6%
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+9
93.7%
Malakai Anthony pass complete to Jelani Mason for 9 yds to the MRMK 25Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 25
-1
93.5%
Jermaine Corbett run for a loss of 1 yard to the MRMK 24Similar
Q2 14:43
3RD & 2
OWN 24
0
94.0%
Malakai Anthony pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:22
4TH & 2
OWN 24
0
94.3%
Cole Peterson punt for 26 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 11TD
3 plays · 50 yds · 0:5794% → 92%
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
50
0
94.2%
Joe Fagnano pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 10
50
+11
94.2%
Mel Brown run for 11 yds to the MRMK 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
92.1%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Shamar Porter for 39 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRMKDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 2:245% → 4%
Q2 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
95.5%
Jermaine Corbett run for 1 yd to the MRMK 20Similar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+24
95.7%
Jermaine Corbett run for 24 yds to the MRMK 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
95.7%
Malakai Anthony pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:53
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
95.9%
Malakai Anthony run for no gain to the MRMK 44Similar
Q2 11:39
3RD & 10
OWN 44
0
95.9%
Malakai Anthony pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:47
4TH & 10
OWN 44
+6
96.4%
Cole Peterson punt for 40 yds , TJ Sheffield returns for 6 yds to the CONN 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 13TD
11 plays · 78 yds · 4:3992% → 98%
Q2 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
92.2%
Cam Edwards run for 4 yds to the CONN 26Similar
Q2 10:23
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+5
92.9%
Joe Fagnano run for 5 yds to the CONN 31Similar
Q2 9:58
3RD & 1
OWN 31
-5
93.1%
UConn Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the CONN 26Similar
Q2 9:50
3RD & 6
OWN 26
+15
93.1%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to TJ Sheffield for 15 yds to the CONN 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
94.8%
Mel Brown run for 6 yds to the CONN 47Similar
Q2 9:17
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+6
94.9%
Mel Brown run for 6 yds to the MRMK 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
95.0%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Victor Rosa for 8 yds to the MRMK 39Similar
Q2 8:43
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+12
92.7%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Alexander Honig for 12 yds to the MRMK 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
97.2%
Victor Rosa run for no gain to the MRMK 23Similar
Q2 6:31
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+22
97.3%
Mel Brown run for 22 yds to the MRMK 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.9%
Cam Edwards run for 1 yd for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRMKDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:432% → 2%
Q2 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
98.0%
Jermaine Corbett run for 2 yds to the MRMK 27Similar
Q2 5:19
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
98.2%
Jermaine Corbett run for no gain to the MRMK 27Similar
Q2 5:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
98.3%
Malakai Anthony run for no gain to the MRMK 27Similar
Q2 4:15
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+20
98.4%
Cole Peterson punt for 37 yds , TJ Sheffield returns for 20 yds to the MRMK 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 15TD
2 plays · 44 yds · 0:1499% → 99%
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
98.6%
Joe Fagnano pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:24
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+44
98.7%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Ezeriah Anderson for 44 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRMKDrive 16PUNT
11 plays · 11 yds · 2:231% → 1%
Q2 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.8%
Jermaine Corbett run for 5 yds to the MRMK 30Similar
Q2 2:40
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-10
98.8%
(02:40) WYATT, Brendon rush to the left for no gain to the MC30, out of bounds, clock 02:39. PENALTY MC Holding on YOCUM, Ty enforced 10 yards from the MC30 to the MC20 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+6
98.9%
Malakai Anthony pass complete to Seth Sweitzer for 6 yds to the MRMK 26Similar
Q2 1:57
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+15
99.0%
UConn Penalty, Personal Foul (Brandon Kelly) to the MRMK 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-3
98.9%
Brendon Wyatt run for a loss of 3 yards to the MRMK 41Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 13
OWN 41
-4
99.0%
Malakai Anthony run for a loss of 4 yards to the MRMK 37Similar
Q2 1:02
3RD & 17
OWN 37
-1
99.1%
Malakai Anthony pass complete to Jared Dunn for a loss of 1 yard to the MRMK 36Similar
Q2 0:54
4TH & 18
OWN 36
+9
99.1%
Cole Peterson punt for 38 yds , TJ Sheffield returns for 9 yds to the CONN 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 17END OF HALF
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:1299% → 99%
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
98.8%
Joe Fagnano pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
98.7%
Joe Fagnano pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+6
98.7%
Durell Robinson run for 6 yds to the CONN 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRMKDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:371% → 1%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-2
99.2%
Ayden Pereira pass complete to Trevor Shorter for a loss of 2 yards to the MRMK 8Similar
Q3 14:08
2ND & 12
OWN 8
-1
99.3%
Brendon Wyatt run for a loss of 1 yard to the MRMK 7Similar
Q3 13:23
3RD & 13
OWN 7
0
99.4%
Ayden Pereira pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:14
4TH & 13
OWN 7
+8
99.4%
Cole Peterson punt for 42 yds , TJ Sheffield returns for 8 yds to the MRMK 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 19MISSED FG
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2999% → 99%
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-1
99.3%
Cam Edwards run for a loss of 1 yard to the MRMK 42Similar
Q3 12:36
2ND & 11
OPP 42
+2
99.3%
Cam Edwards run for 2 yds to the MRMK 40Similar
Q3 12:18
3RD & 9
OPP 40
+6
99.3%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to TJ Sheffield for 6 yds to the MRMK 34Similar
Q3 11:37
4TH & 3
OPP 34
+52
99.4%
Chris Freeman 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRMKDrive 20END OF HALF
4 plays · 10 yds · 1:591% → 0%
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
99.5%
Brendon Wyatt run for 2 yds to the MRMK 36Similar
Q3 11:01
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+8
99.6%
Ayden Pereira run for 8 yds to the MRMK 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
99.6%
Ayden Pereira sacked by Tui Faumuina-Brown for 0 yards to the MRMK 44Similar
Q3 9:35
4TH & 10
OWN 44
0
99.6%
Cole Peterson punt for 39 yds, downed at the CONN 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 21TD
9 plays · 83 yds · 2:21100% → 100%
Q3 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+12
99.5%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Alexander Honig for 12 yds to the CONN 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+13
99.6%
Mel Brown run for 13 yds to the CONN 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
99.6%
Mel Brown run for 9 yds to the MRMK 49Similar
Q3 7:32
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+17
99.6%
BROWN, Mel rush to the left for no gain to the MC49 (HATHAWAY, Justyce), clock 07:32. PENALTY MC Personal Foul on HATHAWAY, Justyce enforced 17 yards from the MC47 to the MC30 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
99.6%
Joe Fagnano pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:02
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+9
99.6%
Durell Robinson run for 9 yds to the MRMK 23Similar
Q3 6:45
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+11
99.6%
Durell Robinson run for 11 yds to the MRMK 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
99.7%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Alexander Honig for 12 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRMKDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:220% → 0%
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
99.7%
Matthias Latham run for 2 yds to the MRMK 29Similar
Q3 5:36
2ND & 8
OWN 29
0
99.8%
Ayden Pereira pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:32
3RD & 8
OWN 29
+7
99.8%
Ayden Pereira run for 7 yds to the MRMK 36Similar
Q3 4:39
4TH & 1
OWN 36
0
99.7%
Cole Peterson punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 23DOWNS
11 plays · 35 yds · 4:32100% → 100%
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
99.7%
Mel Brown run for 5 yds to the CONN 46Similar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 5
OWN 46
0
99.7%
Tucker McDonald pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:09
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+3
99.7%
Tucker McDonald pass complete to Shamar Porter for 3 yds to the CONN 49Similar
Q3 3:27
4TH & 2
OWN 49
+3
99.7%
Durell Robinson run for 3 yds to the MRMK 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
99.8%
Durell Robinson run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 2:14
2ND & 12
50
+8
99.8%
Durell Robinson run for 8 yds to the MRMK 42Similar
Q3 1:46
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+9
99.8%
Tucker McDonald run for 9 yds to the MRMK 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
99.8%
Mel Brown run for 3 yds to the MRMK 30Similar
Q3 0:41
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+2
99.8%
Mel Brown run for 2 yds to the MRMK 28Similar
Q3 0:20
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+4
99.8%
Mel Brown run for 4 yds to the MRMK 24Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 24
0
99.8%
Tucker McDonald run for no gain to the MRMK 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRMKDrive 24PUNT
11 plays · 21 yds · 3:330% → 0%
Q4 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
99.9%
Ayden Pereira run for no gain to the MRMK 24Similar
Q4 14:08
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
99.9%
Merrimack Penalty, Illegal Touch-Pass on SWEITZER, Seth enforced (Seth Sweitzer) to the MRMK 24Similar
Q4 14:04
3RD & 10
OWN 24
+15
99.9%
UConn Penalty, Roughing the Passer on STAFFORD, Jelani enforced (Jelani Stafford) to the MRMK 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
99.9%
Ayden Pereira pass complete to Austin Palmer for 8 yds to the MRMK 47Similar
Q4 13:25
2ND & 2
OWN 47
-12
99.9%
Ayden Pereira sacked by Jordan Wright for a loss of 12 yards to the MRMK 35Similar
Q4 12:42
3RD & 14
OWN 35
+19
99.9%
Ayden Pereira run for 19 yds to the CONN 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
99.9%
Ayden Pereira pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:59
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+7
99.9%
Ayden Pereira run for 7 yds to the CONN 39Similar
Q4 11:13
3RD & 3
OPP 39
-16
99.9%
Merrimack Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Ayden Pereira) to the MRMK 45Similar
Q4 10:53
4TH & 19
OWN 45
0
99.9%
punt blocked by Oumar Diomande blocked by Oumar DiomandeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 25DOWNS
7 plays · 21 yds · 3:01100% → 100%
Q4 10:51
1ST & 10
50
0
99.9%
Cole Welliver pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:41
2ND & 10
50
+5
99.9%
Durell Robinson run for 5 yds to the MRMK 45Similar
Q4 10:01
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+9
99.9%
Cole Welliver pass complete to Durell Robinson for 9 yds to the MRMK 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
99.9%
Durell Robinson run for 6 yds to the MRMK 30Similar
Q4 9:03
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+1
99.9%
Cole Welliver pass complete to Durell Robinson for 1 yd to the MRMK 29Similar
Q4 8:35
3RD & 3
OPP 29
0
99.9%
Durell Robinson run for no gain to the MRMK 29Similar
Q4 7:50
4TH & 3
OPP 29
0
99.9%
Cole Welliver pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRMKDrive 26TD
1 play · 71 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+71
99.9%
Justin Lewis pass complete to Seth Sweitzer for 71 yds for a TD (Lliam Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:40100% → 100%
Q4 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.9%
Mel Brown run for 2 yds to the CONN 27Similar
Q4 7:03
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
99.9%
Mel Brown run for 2 yds to the CONN 29Similar
Q4 6:28
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
99.9%
Tucker McDonald pass complete to Jackson Harper for 5 yds to the CONN 34Similar
Q4 5:48
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+7
99.9%
Connor Stutz punt for 36 yds , Jalen McDonald returns for 7 yds to the MRMK 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRMKDrive 28FG
13 plays · 49 yds · 5:350% → 0%
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
100.0%
Brendon Wyatt run for 4 yds to the MRMK 41Similar
Q4 4:58
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+4
100.0%
Justin Lewis pass complete to LJ Robinson for 4 yds to the MRMK 45Similar
Q4 4:21
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+7
100.0%
Justin Lewis run for 7 yds to the CONN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
100.0%
Justin Lewis pass complete to Myles Wilson for 7 yds to the CONN 41Similar
Q4 3:06
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+3
100.0%
Justin Lewis run for 3 yds to the CONN 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
100.0%
Justin Lewis run for 1 yd to the CONN 37Similar
Q4 2:14
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+1
100.0%
Justin Lewis pass complete to Myles Wilson for 1 yd to the CONN 36Similar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+15
100.0%
Justin Lewis pass complete to LJ Robinson for 15 yds to the CONN 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
100.0%
Matthias Latham run for 4 yds to the CONN 15Similar
Q4 0:49
2ND & 6
OPP 15
-2
100.0%
Justin Lewis sacked by Brandon Kelly for a loss of 2 yards to the CONN 17Similar
Q4 0:15
3RD & 8
OPP 17
+3
100.0%
Justin Lewis pass complete to Myles Wilson for 3 yds to the CONN 14Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 5
OPP 14
+32
100.0%
Lliam Davis 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 0:27
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Skyler Bell for 60 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)
+4.9
TD · Q1 1:39
Jermaine Corbett run for 46 yds for a TD (Lliam Davis KICK)
-3.9
TD · Q1 4:40
Victor Rosa run for 29 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)
+2.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com