2024 · Week 14 · Nov 30, 2024 · Jones AT&T Stadium
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Win probability · TTU
modelTTU aheadWVU aheadconfidence bandkey playTTU scoreWVU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:07 · Garrett Greene pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame prior
This game in five plays
- FG · Q1 3:47: Michael Hayes II 52 yd FG GOOD — WVU win probability +1.1 pts (now 43%) (top driver: Tied - offense's timeout count is neutral here).
- TD · Q2 10:32: Tahj Brooks run for 2 yds for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK) — TTU win probability +4.8 pts (now 66%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:19: Behren Morton pass complete to Mason Tharp for 1 yd for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK) — TTU win probability +12.5 pts (now 83%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:35: Tahj Brooks run for 37 yds for a TD (J. Conyers Run For Two-point Conversion) — TTU win probability +6.7 pts (now 92%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:09: Tahj Brooks run for 2 yds for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK) — TTU win probability +3.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TTU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3WVU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
- Q1 11:07WVU 4th & 5 at TTU 44, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call41.5%41% to convertField goal41.4%−0.127% to makePunt41.5%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 8:27TTU 4th & 10 at WVU 14, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.0% before the snapGo for it58.8%−0.226% to convertField goalTheir call58.9%84% to makePunt57.9%−1.0average punt
- Q1 3:47WVU 4th & 18 at TTU 34, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.3% before the snapGo for it38.7%−0.613% to convertField goalTheir call39.3%47% to makePunt39.0%−0.3average punt
- Q1 1:28TTU 4th & 5 at WVU 5, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.4% before the snapGo for it59.2%−<0.133% to convertField goalTheir call59.2%92% to makePunt57.1%−2.1average punt
- Q2 12:53WVU 4th & 13 at WVU 35, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.2% before the snapGo for it37.7%−1.120% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call38.8%average punt
- Q2 8:08WVU 4th & 17 at WVU 48, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.2% before the snapGo for it29.1%−1.414% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.5%average punt
- Q3 8:44WVU 4th & 8 at TTU 48, down 39Close callWent for it · 1.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.0%−<0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.1%average punt
- Q3 4:58WVU 4th & 4 at WVU 33, down 39Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.5%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.6%average punt
- Q4 12:17TTU 4th & 4 at WVU 4, up 33Close callKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%40% to convertField goalTheir call99.7%−<0.193% to makePunt99.3%−0.5average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TTU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6WVU made the numbers' call on 0 of 2
- Q2 10:32TTU Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call68.5%97% to makeGo for two68.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:19TTU Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call79.2%97% to makeGo for two79.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:35TTU Touchdown, up 23 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick90.9%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call90.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:09TTU Touchdown, up 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.4%97% to makeGo for two98.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:48TTU Touchdown, up 38 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.7%97% to makeGo for two98.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:04WVU Touchdown, down 33 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick0.5%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call0.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:38WVU Touchdown, down 30 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick0.2%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call0.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 3:36TTU Touchdown, up 36 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWVUDrive 1DOWNS9 plays · 31 yds · 3:5344% → 44%
TTUDrive 2FG10 plays · 42 yds · 2:3757% → 57%
Q1 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
56.7%
Behren Morton pass complete to Jalin Conyers for 4 yds to the TTU 48Similar
Q1 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+17
56.9%
Behren Morton pass complete to Coy Eakin for 17 yds to the WVU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
57.1%
Behren Morton pass complete to Jalin Conyers for 9 yds to the WVU 19Similar
Q1 9:20
3RD & 4
OPP 22
+8
57.1%
Behren Morton pass complete to Josh Kelly for 8 yds to the WVU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 3FG9 plays · 41 yds · 4:4043% → 43%
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
57.1%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Preston Fox for no gain to the WVU 37Similar
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+12
56.9%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Hudson Clement for 12 yds to the TTU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:01
2ND & 8
OPP 24
-10
56.5%
Garrett Greene sacked by Jacob Rodriguez for a loss of 10 yards to the TTU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 4FG7 plays · 80 yds · 2:1557% → 58%
WVUDrive 5PUNT7 plays · 10 yds · 3:3142% → 40%
Q1 0:11
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+8
58.7%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Rodney Gallagher III for 8 yds to the WVU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
57.7%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Rodney Gallagher III for 1 yd to the WVU 39Similar
Q2 13:36
3RD & 6
OWN 42
-7
57.8%
Garrett Greene sacked by Terrell Tilmon for a loss of 7 yards to the WVU 35Similar
Q2 12:53
4TH & 13
OWN 35
+20
60.2%
Oliver Straw punt for 44 yds , Jordan Brown returns for 20 yds to the TTU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 6TD7 plays · 59 yds · 2:1159% → 66%
WVUDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 23 yds · 2:2434% → 31%
TTUDrive 8TD11 plays · 75 yds · 3:4266% → 83%
Q2 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
66.4%
Behren Morton pass complete to J'Koby Williams for 18 yds to the TTU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:58
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+8
68.8%
Behren Morton pass complete to Mason Tharp for 8 yds to the WVU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:19
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+8
70.0%
Behren Morton pass complete to Josh Kelly for 8 yds to the WVU 23Similar
Q2 4:32
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+18
70.4%
Behren Morton pass complete to Jalin Conyers for 18 yds to the WVU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
83.0%
Behren Morton pass complete to Mason Tharp for 1 yd for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 9INT5 plays · 22 yds · 1:1120% → 20%
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
79.6%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Jahiem White for 6 yds to the WVU 16Similar
Q2 3:36
3RD & 4
OWN 16
+15
80.1%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Preston Fox for 15 yds to the WVU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
79.3%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Jahiem White for 1 yd to the WVU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 10TD5 plays · 53 yds · 1:0384% → 92%
WVUDrive 11FUMBLE3 plays · 10 yds · 0:3316% → 15%
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
84.4%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Rodney Gallagher III for a loss of 3 yards to the WVU 22Similar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+4
84.6%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Jahiem White for 4 yds to the WVU 26Similar
Q2 1:02
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-9
84.7%
Garrett Greene sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the WVU 35 Garrett Greene fumbled, recovered by TTU Brenden Jordan , return for 0 yards for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 12TD6 plays · 35 yds · 0:2494% → 98%
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
93.5%
Behren Morton pass complete to Jalin Conyers for 6 yds to the WVU 29Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+7
93.5%
Behren Morton pass complete to Caleb Douglas for 7 yds to the WVU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-10
93.5%
QB Keeper MORTON, Behren rush to the left for a gain of 2 yards to the WVU20 (BOYCE, Israel), clock 00:25. PENALTY TTU Holding on PORCHER, Sterling enforced 10 yards from the WVU22 to the WVU32 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 20
OPP 32
+30
93.4%
Behren Morton pass complete to Tahj Brooks for 30 yds to the WVU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 13END OF HALF1 play · 6 yds · 0:002% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 14TD10 plays · 75 yds · 2:1297% → 99%
Q3 13:35
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+11
97.6%
Behren Morton pass complete to Coy Eakin for 11 yds to the WVU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:54
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+12
97.8%
Behren Morton pass complete to Caleb Douglas for 12 yds to the WVU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
98.6%
Behren Morton pass complete to Caleb Douglas for 31 yds for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 15DOWNS10 plays · 32 yds · 4:042% → 1%
Q3 12:16
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+13
98.6%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Justin Robinson for 13 yds to the WVU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
98.6%
Garrett Greene pass complete to CJ Donaldson Jr. for 7 yds to the WVU 44Similar
Q3 10:34
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+4
98.7%
CJ Donaldson Jr. run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
3RD & 8
OPP 48
0
98.8%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Jahiem White for no gain to the TTU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 16INT2 plays · 22 yds · 0:3199% → 99%
WVUDrive 17TD12 plays · 91 yds · 6:001% → 0%
Q3 5:36
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+3
99.5%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Ric'Darious Farmer for 3 yds to the WVU 33Similar
Q3 4:58
4TH & 4
OWN 33
+8
99.5%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Kole Taylor for 8 yds to the WVU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+16
99.5%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Ric'Darious Farmer for 16 yds to the TTU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
99.6%
Garrett Greene pass complete to CJ Donaldson Jr. for 15 yds to the TTU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+11
99.6%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Justin Robinson for 11 yds to the TTU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
99.6%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Rodney Gallagher III for 15 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 18FG13 plays · 77 yds · 4:41100% → 100%
Q3 0:54
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+5
99.6%
Behren Morton pass complete to Tahj Brooks for 5 yds to the TTU 39Similar
Q3 0:24
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+25
99.6%
Behren Morton pass complete to Josh Kelly for 25 yds to the WVU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:58
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+3
99.7%
Behren Morton pass complete to Josh Kelly for 3 yds to the WVU 29Similar
Q4 14:32
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+26
99.7%
Behren Morton pass complete to Josh Kelly for 26 yds to the WVU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 19TD10 plays · 75 yds · 3:360% → 0%
Q4 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-15
99.8%
(11:38) GREENE, Garrett pass to the right complete for 7 yards to ROBINSON, Justin caught at the TTU41 and advanced to the TTU41 (ESQUERRA, Malik), clock 11:37. PENALTY WVU Block below the waist on WHITE, Jahiem enforced 15 yards from the TTU48 to the WVU37 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 11:19
1ST & 25
OWN 37
+13
99.9%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Jahiem White for 13 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:22
3RD & 11
OPP 49
+15
99.9%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Hudson Clement for 15 yds to the TTU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
99.9%
Jahiem White run for 21 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 20TD13 plays · 64 yds · 4:59100% → 100%
Q4 3:45
3RD & 12
OPP 13
+9
99.9%
(03:45) HAMMOND, Will pass up the middle incomplete intended for VALSIN, Kelby thrown to the WVU4, clock 03:42. PENALTY WVU Pass Interference on BOYCE, Israel enforced at the spot of the foul for 9 yards to the WVU4 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 21INT13 plays · 57 yds · 3:010% → 0%
Q4 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
99.9%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Justin Robinson for 11 yds to the TTU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
99.9%
Garrett Greene pass complete to CJ Donaldson Jr. for 4 yds to the TTU 44Similar
Q4 1:53
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+8
99.9%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Hudson Clement for 8 yds to the TTU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+10
99.9%
Garrett Greene pass complete to CJ Donaldson Jr. for 10 yds to the TTU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+13
99.9%
Garrett Greene pass complete to CJ Donaldson Jr. for 13 yds to the TTU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:49
2ND & 15
OPP 18
+5
100.0%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Hudson Clement for 5 yds to the TTU 13Similar
Q4 0:14
3RD & 10
OPP 13
0
100.0%
Garrett Greene pass intercepted John Curry return for no gain to the TTU 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 22END OF GAME1 play · 1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
100.0%
(00:08) [NHSG] Kneel down by HAMMOND, Will at TTU3 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:19
Behren Morton pass complete to Mason Tharp for 1 yd for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK)
+12.5
TD · Q2 1:35
Tahj Brooks run for 37 yds for a TD (J. Conyers Run For Two-point Conversion)
+6.7
TD · Q2 10:32
Tahj Brooks run for 2 yds for a TD (Gino Garcia KICK)
+4.8