Try the model
KSU

Kansas State 21 at Iowa State 29

ISU
2024 · Week 14 · Nov 30, 2024 · Jack Trice Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ISU
modelISU aheadKSU aheadconfidence bandkey playISU scoreKSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDSAFETYFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:20 · Simon McClannan punt for 54 yds, downed at the ISU 18
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore differentialTime remaining
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 94Home team on offense+7.7Pregame prior+5.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.6Garbage-time factor−0.1Score differential+2.5Time remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:05: Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 9 yds for a TD (Kyle Konrardy KICK) — ISU win probability +10.1 pts (now 75%) (top driver: Lead backed by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q2 5:49: Avery Johnson pass complete to Jayce Brown for 65 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK) — KSU win probability +11.4 pts (now 33%) (top driver: Defense has -4 timeouts left).
  3. TD · Q2 0:43: Rocco Becht run for 5 yds for a TD (Kyle Konrardy KICK) — ISU win probability +6.7 pts (now 76%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:41: Avery Johnson pass complete to Garrett Oakley for 7 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK) — KSU win probability +16.1 pts (now 43%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 6:16: Kyle Konrardy 20 yd FG GOOD — ISU win probability +16.6 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ISU made the numbers' call on 11 of 12KSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 13:27ISU 4th & 1 at KSU 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    56.9%−0.1
    79% to make
    Punt
    56.5%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:35KSU 4th & 7 at KSU 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.5%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:28ISU 4th & 13 at ISU 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.4%−0.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:39KSU 4th & 2 at ISU 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    39.5%−0.3
    60% to make
    Punt
    38.4%−1.4
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:28ISU 4th & 8 at ISU 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.5%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.8%
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:52KSU 4th & 8 at KSU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.1%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.6%
    average punt
  7. Q1 0:00ISU 4th & 1 at KSU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    57.7%−0.7
    60% to make
    Punt
    56.0%−2.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:31ISU 4th & 8 at KSU 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.9%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.2%
    70% to make
    Punt
    56.0%−2.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:37KSU 4th & 1 at ISU 29, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    31.2%−2.0
    58% to make
    Punt
    27.3%−5.9
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:08ISU 4th & 11 at ISU 29, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.8%−1.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.4%
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:49ISU 4th & 15 at ISU 41, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.6%−2.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.7%
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:54KSU 4th & 5 at KSU 38, down 3
    Close callPunted · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:20KSU 4th & 3 at KSU 28, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.7%−0.8
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 13:04ISU 4th & 12 at KSU 46, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.0%−1.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    72.4%−2.0
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    74.4%
    average punt
  15. Q3 8:08KSU 4th & 3 at ISU 3, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 23.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.6%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.8%−1.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    13.0%−11.7
    average punt
  16. Q3 7:07ISU 4th & 10 at ISU 20, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.0%−1.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.3%
    average punt
  17. Q3 0:17ISU 4th & 2 at KSU 7, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.3%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    63.5%−2.8
    91% to make
    Punt
    50.0%−16.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:16ISU 4th & 2 at KSU 2, up 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 84.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.6%−3.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    66.9%−17.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:01KSU 4th & 2 at KSU 35, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.2%−2.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:14ISU 4th & 6 at KSU 19, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.3%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.5%
    77% to make
    Punt
    93.3%−2.2
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:41KSU 4th & 15 at KSU 15, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.0%
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.7%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ISU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3KSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 12:24ISU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:39KSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:05ISU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:49KSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:43ISU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:41KSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
KSUDrive 1FUMBLE
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
61.3%
Avery Johnson run for 2 yds to the KSU 27 Avery Johnson fumbled, recovered by ISU Myles Purchase M. Purchase return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 2TD
6 plays · 27 yds · 2:3061% → 63%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
61.3%
Carson Hansen run for 1 yd to the KSU 26Similar
Q1 14:23
2ND & 9
OPP 26
0
61.4%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:18
3RD & 9
OPP 26
+8
61.4%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Carson Brown for 8 yds to the KSU 18Similar
Q1 13:27
4TH & 1
OPP 18
+1
61.4%
Rocco Becht run for 1 yd to the KSU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
61.6%
Jaylon Jackson run for 2 yds to the KSU 15Similar
Q1 12:24
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+15
62.5%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 15 yds for a TD (Kyle Konrardy KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:4238% → 37%
Q1 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
62.2%
DJ Giddens run for 3 yds to the KSU 26Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 7
OWN 26
0
62.3%
Avery Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:42
3RD & 7
OWN 26
0
62.5%
Avery Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:35
4TH & 7
OWN 26
+3
62.6%
Simon McClannan punt for 45 yds , Jaylin Noel returns for 3 yds to the ISU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 0:5463% → 63%
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
62.7%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+2
62.7%
Abu Sama III run for 2 yds to the ISU 34Similar
Q1 10:39
3RD & 8
OWN 34
0
62.9%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:34
4TH & 8
OWN 34
-5
62.7%
Iowa State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ISU 29Similar
Q1 10:28
4TH & 13
OWN 29
0
62.7%
Tyler Perkins punt for 54 yds, downed at the KSU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 5TD
11 plays · 83 yds · 4:4337% → 40%
Q1 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
63.0%
DJ Giddens run for 3 yds to the KSU 20Similar
Q1 9:43
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+16
63.2%
Avery Johnson run for 16 yds to the KSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
63.3%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 12 yds to the KSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
61.7%
DJ Giddens run for 1 yd to the KSU 49Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+2
63.1%
DJ Giddens run for 2 yds to the ISU 49Similar
Q1 7:39
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+13
63.1%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jayce Brown for 13 yds to the ISU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
63.2%
Dylan Edwards run for 2 yds to the ISU 34Similar
Q1 6:32
2ND & 8
OPP 34
0
62.9%
Avery Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:26
3RD & 8
OPP 34
+6
63.0%
Avery Johnson run for 6 yds to the ISU 28Similar
Q1 5:39
4TH & 2
OPP 28
+28
59.8%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jayce Brown for 28 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:1061% → 61%
Q1 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
61.0%
(05:38) SAMA, Abu rush up the middle for a gain of 5 yards to the ISU30 (PAYNE, VJ), clock 05:35. PENALTY Before the snap, ISU Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the ISU25 to the ISU20. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 5:12
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+7
60.9%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 7 yds to the ISU 27Similar
Q1 4:39
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
60.9%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:35
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
60.3%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:28
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
60.6%
Jace T. Gilbert punt for 43 yds, downed at the KSU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2640% → 39%
Q1 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
60.3%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Brayden Loftin for no gain to the KSU 30Similar
Q1 3:39
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+2
60.5%
DJ Giddens run for 2 yds to the KSU 32Similar
Q1 3:00
3RD & 8
OWN 32
0
60.7%
Avery Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:52
4TH & 8
OWN 32
+27
61.0%
Simon McClannan punt for 47 yds , Jaylin Noel returns for 27 yds to the ISU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 8FG
9 plays · 29 yds · 4:1063% → 64%
Q1 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
62.8%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Gabe Burkle for 15 yds to the KSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
63.1%
Abu Sama III run for 3 yds to the KSU 34Similar
Q1 1:39
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+2
63.5%
Carson Hansen run for 2 yds to the KSU 32Similar
Q1 0:58
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+4
63.1%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 4 yds to the KSU 28Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 28
+3
62.5%
Abu Sama III run for 3 yds to the KSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:59
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
63.8%
Jaylon Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the KSU 26Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 11
OPP 26
0
63.8%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:15
3RD & 11
OPP 26
+3
63.0%
Jaylon Jackson run for 3 yds to the KSU 23Similar
Q2 13:31
4TH & 8
OPP 23
+41
64.1%
Kyle Konrardy 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 9FUMBLE
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:3837% → 37%
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-5
62.9%
Kansas State Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the KSU 19Similar
Q2 13:24
1ST & 15
OWN 19
+4
63.0%
DJ Giddens run for 4 yds to the KSU 23Similar
Q2 12:48
2ND & 11
OWN 23
+7
63.2%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 7 yds Keagan Johnson fumbled, recovered by ISU Joey Petersen J. Petersen return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 10TD
6 plays · 30 yds · 2:3565% → 75%
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
65.0%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 7 yds to the KSU 23Similar
Q2 12:16
2ND & 3
OPP 23
+1
65.1%
Carson Hansen run for 1 yd to the KSU 22Similar
Q2 11:37
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+10
64.5%
(11:37) BECHT, Rocco pass to the left incomplete intended for KLOTZ, Stevo thrown to the KSU8, clock 11:33. PENALTY KSU Pass Interference on PAYNE, VJ enforced at the spot of the foul for 10 yards to the KSU12 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
65.2%
Carson Hansen run for 3 yds to the KSU 9Similar
Q2 10:47
2ND & 7
OPP 9
0
65.4%
Carson Hansen run for no gain to the KSU 9Similar
Q2 10:05
3RD & 7
OPP 9
+9
75.4%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 9 yds for a TD (Kyle Konrardy KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 11DOWNS
6 plays · 30 yds · 2:2129% → 27%
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+21
71.5%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Garrett Oakley for 21 yds to the ISU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
71.1%
DJ Giddens run for 3 yds to the ISU 35Similar
Q2 8:54
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+4
70.5%
Avery Johnson run for 4 yds to the ISU 31Similar
Q2 8:11
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+2
72.0%
DJ Giddens run for 2 yds to the ISU 29Similar
Q2 7:37
4TH & 1
OPP 29
0
73.0%
Avery Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:1779% → 78%
Q2 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
78.9%
Carson Hansen run for 1 yd to the ISU 31Similar
Q2 6:49
2ND & 9
OWN 31
0
79.1%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:46
3RD & 9
OWN 31
-2
78.5%
Rocco Becht sacked by Chiddi Obiazor for a loss of 2 yards to the ISU 29Similar
Q2 6:08
4TH & 11
OWN 29
0
78.3%
Tyler Perkins punt for 36 yds, downed at the KSU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 13TD
1 play · 65 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q2 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+65
66.9%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jayce Brown for 65 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:5967% → 65%
Q2 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
66.5%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Abu Sama III for 10 yds to the ISU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
66.8%
Jaylon Jackson run for 11 yds to the ISU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
69.1%
Rocco Becht run for a loss of 5 yards to the ISU 41Similar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 15
OWN 41
0
67.4%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:54
3RD & 15
OWN 41
0
65.9%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:49
4TH & 15
OWN 41
0
64.9%
Jace T. Gilbert punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 1:4832% → 30%
Q2 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
68.0%
DJ Giddens run for 9 yds to the KSU 31Similar
Q2 3:10
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+2
66.9%
DJ Giddens run for 2 yds to the KSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
67.6%
Avery Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:32
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-5
67.9%
Kansas State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the KSU 28Similar
Q2 2:31
2ND & 15
OWN 28
-3
68.5%
DJ Giddens run for a loss of 3 yards to the KSU 25Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 18
OWN 25
+13
70.9%
Avery Johnson run for 13 yds to the KSU 38Similar
Q2 1:54
4TH & 5
OWN 38
0
70.3%
Simon McClannan punt for 30 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 16TD
7 plays · 78 yds · 1:0367% → 76%
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
67.0%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:37
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+15
66.7%
Kansas State Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (VJ Payne) to the KSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
70.3%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+21
70.2%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 21 yds to the KSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
69.3%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 4 yds to the KSU 5Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
75.9%
Rocco Becht run for 5 yds for a TD (Kyle Konrardy KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:1620% → 24%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
79.7%
Avery Johnson run for no gain to the KSU 21Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
79.9%
Avery Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:26
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+7
80.5%
Avery Johnson run for 7 yds to the KSU 28Similar
Q2 0:20
4TH & 3
OWN 28
0
76.2%
Simon McClannan punt for 54 yds, downed at the ISU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 18END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-1
67.1%
(00:09) [NH] Kneel down by BECHT, Rocco at ISU17 (team loss of 1), clock 00:05.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 29 yds · 1:5575% → 76%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
75.4%
Abu Sama III run for 12 yds to the ISU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+19
76.2%
Rocco Becht run for 19 yds to the KSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
77.5%
Abu Sama III run for a loss of 2 yards to the KSU 46Similar
Q3 13:12
2ND & 12
OPP 46
0
77.4%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:08
3RD & 12
OPP 46
0
76.8%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:04
4TH & 12
OPP 46
0
75.5%
Jace T. Gilbert punt for 29 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 20MISSED FG
11 plays · 80 yds · 4:4824% → 24%
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
75.8%
Avery Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:49
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+3
76.3%
DJ Giddens run for 3 yds to the KSU 20Similar
Q3 12:07
3RD & 7
OWN 20
+22
77.2%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Garrett Oakley for 22 yds to the KSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
74.9%
DJ Giddens run for 5 yds to the KSU 47Similar
Q3 10:55
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+12
74.5%
Avery Johnson run for 12 yds to the ISU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+36
74.3%
DJ Giddens run for 36 yds to the ISU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
73.2%
Avery Johnson run for 1 yd to the ISU 4Similar
Q3 8:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
73.4%
Avery Johnson run for 1 yd to the ISU 3Similar
Q3 8:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
75.0%
Avery Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
76.5%
Chris Tennant 21 yd FG BLOCKED blocked bySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:5978% → 77%
Q3 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
77.5%
Abu Sama III run for no gain to the ISU 20Similar
Q3 7:23
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
78.1%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:14
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
77.4%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:07
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
76.9%
Tyler Perkins punt for 39 yds, downed at the KSU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 22TD
5 plays · 59 yds · 2:1424% → 43%
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+28
76.2%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Garrett Oakley for 28 yds to the ISU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+21
73.6%
Avery Johnson run for 21 yds to the ISU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
72.7%
Avery Johnson run for 3 yds to the ISU 7Similar
Q3 4:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
73.4%
Avery Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
57.3%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Garrett Oakley for 7 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 23DOWNS
13 plays · 68 yds · 4:2465% → 72%
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
64.9%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
64.4%
Rocco Becht run for 1 yd to the ISU 26Similar
Q3 4:01
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+14
67.8%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Carson Brown for 14 yds to the ISU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+24
72.2%
Carson Hansen run for 24 yds to the KSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
73.7%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:53
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+4
73.5%
Abu Sama III run for 4 yds to the KSU 32Similar
Q3 2:08
3RD & 6
OPP 32
+17
73.2%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 17 yds to the KSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
74.6%
Abu Sama III run for 2 yds to the KSU 13Similar
Q3 0:58
2ND & 8
OPP 13
0
74.7%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:54
3RD & 8
OPP 13
+6
73.5%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 6 yds to the KSU 7Similar
Q3 0:17
4TH & 2
OPP 7
0
71.7%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 24SF
6 plays · -7 yds · 1:5231% → 25%
Q3 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
68.6%
Dylan Edwards run for no gain to the KSU 7Similar
Q4 14:59
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+12
69.2%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Will Swanson for 12 yds to the KSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
69.1%
Avery Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+3
69.6%
Dylan Edwards run for 3 yds to the KSU 22Similar
Q4 13:22
3RD & 7
OWN 22
0
75.0%
Kansas State Penalty, intentional grounding (Avery Johnson) to the KSU 0 for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 25FG
16 plays · 60 yds · 6:5865% → 95%
Q4 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
64.7%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:11
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
64.0%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:05
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+10
62.2%
(13:05) BECHT, Rocco pass to the left incomplete intended for HIGGINS, Jayden broken up by GARBER, Keenan at the ISU47, clock 13:01. PENALTY KSU Pass Interference on GARBER, Keenan enforced at the spot of the foul for 10 yards to the ISU48 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
66.2%
Jaylin Noel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:53
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+15
65.5%
Rocco Becht run for 15 yds to the KSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
69.0%
Abu Sama III run for 5 yds to the KSU 32Similar
Q4 11:24
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+5
71.2%
Carson Hansen run for 5 yds to the KSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+9
71.4%
Carson Hansen run for 9 yds to the KSU 18Similar
Q4 9:58
2ND & 1
OPP 18
+4
71.7%
Carson Hansen run for 4 yds to the KSU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
72.0%
Abu Sama III run for 3 yds to the KSU 11Similar
Q4 8:32
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+8
72.7%
Abu Sama III run for 8 yds to the KSU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
77.4%
Rocco Becht run for 1 yd to the KSU 2Similar
Q4 7:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
79.3%
Stevo Klotz run for no gain to the KSU 2Similar
Q4 6:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
78.7%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:16
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
95.4%
Kyle Konrardy 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 26DOWNS
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:099% → 8%
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
91.4%
Avery Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:05
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+5
92.2%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Joe Jackson for 5 yds to the KSU 32Similar
Q4 5:31
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+3
92.0%
Joe Jackson run for 3 yds to the KSU 35Similar
Q4 5:01
4TH & 2
OWN 35
0
92.5%
Avery Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 27MISSED FG
11 plays · 16 yds · 3:4798% → 96%
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
97.6%
Abu Sama III run for 4 yds to the KSU 31Similar
Q4 4:14
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+3
97.6%
Abu Sama III run for 3 yds to the KSU 28Similar
Q4 3:29
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+5
98.1%
Carson Hansen run for 5 yds to the KSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
98.4%
Carson Hansen run for 1 yd to the KSU 22Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+2
98.4%
Carson Hansen run for 2 yds to the KSU 20Similar
Q4 1:59
3RD & 7
OPP 20
+1
98.5%
Abu Sama III run for 1 yd to the KSU 19Similar
Q4 1:14
4TH & 6
OPP 19
+37
98.0%
Kyle Konrardy 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
96.1%
(01:09) JOHNSON, Avery pass short to the right incomplete intended for BROWN, Jayce thrown to the KSU22, clock 01:02. PENALTY KSU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on WILLIS, Carver enforced 5 yards from the KSU20 to the KSU15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 28DOWNS
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:204% → 3%
Q4 1:01
1ST & 15
OWN 15
0
96.3%
Avery Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:56
2ND & 15
OWN 15
0
96.5%
Avery Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:49
3RD & 15
OWN 15
0
96.7%
Avery Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:41
4TH & 15
OWN 15
0
96.8%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 29END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-1
98.4%
(00:33) [NH] Kneel down by BECHT, Rocco at KSU16 (team loss of 1), clock 00:27.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 6:16
Kyle Konrardy 20 yd FG GOOD
+16.6
TD · Q3 4:41
Avery Johnson pass complete to Garrett Oakley for 7 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)
-16.1
TD · Q2 5:49
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jayce Brown for 65 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)
-11.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com