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TCU

TCU 20 at Cincinnati 13

CIN
2024 · Week 14 · Nov 30, 2024 · Nippert Stadium
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Win probability · CIN
modelCIN aheadTCU aheadconfidence bandkey playCIN scoreTCU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGTDEnd of GameFG+0.2CIN 37.7%Kyle Lemmermann 27 yd FG GOODAWAY 10 - HOME 0 · Q2 14:47
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:47 · Kyle Lemmermann 27 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+42.0+21.00−21.0−42.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 38Home team on offense−4.5Garbage-time factor−1.3Score differential−2.4Pregame prior−7.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:12: Corey Kiner run for 1 yd for a TD (Nathan Hawks KICK) — CIN win probability +8.8 pts (now 47%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q2 7:34: Savion Williams run for 2 yds for a TD (Kyle Lemmermann KICK) — TCU win probability +7.7 pts (now 67%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 11:34: Josh Hoover pass complete to Savion Williams for 7 yds to the TCU 27 — TCU win probability +10.0 pts (now 91%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:15: Brendan Sorsby run for 8 yds for a TD (Nathan Hawks PAT MISSED) — CIN win probability +11.2 pts (now 26%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 5:10: Hauss Hejny run for 21 yds to the CIN 48 for a 1ST down — TCU win probability +13.6 pts (now 87%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CIN made the numbers' call on 6 of 7TCU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 14:08TCU 4th & 7 at TCU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:13CIN 4th & 1 at CIN 42, down 7
    Close callPunted · 44.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.8%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:45TCU 4th & 4 at TCU 40, up 7
    Close callPunted · 57.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.0%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:45CIN 4th & 5 at CIN 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.4%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:47TCU 4th & 8 at CIN 9, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.9%−0.5
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.4%
    89% to make
    Punt
    54.7%−3.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:28CIN 4th & 1 at CIN 33, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    35.0%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:44TCU 4th & 16 at CIN 17, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.7%−1.3
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.0%
    80% to make
    Punt
    59.9%−4.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:10CIN 4th & 11 at CIN 36, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.8%−0.8
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:10TCU 4th & 1 at CIN 34, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    70.0%−2.3
    47% to make
    Punt
    68.3%−4.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:36CIN 4th & 5 at CIN 30, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.6%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:15TCU 4th & 10 at TCU 46, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.3%−1.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:08CIN 4th & 9 at CIN 40, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.6%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:08TCU 4th & 1 at CIN 48, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    77.0%−2.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00CIN 4th & 1 at TCU 28, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    19.7%−1.8
    60% to make
    Punt
    15.6%−6.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:06TCU 4th & 1 at TCU 29, up 13
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.8%−2.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:00TCU 4th & 12 at CIN 39, up 7
    Close callPunted · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%−0.4
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    89.7%
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    89.1%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CIN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2TCU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 11:18TCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:12CIN Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:34TCU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 5:15CIN Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    18.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.7%−1.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TCUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5559% → 59%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
40.7%
Savion Williams run for 3 yds to the TCU 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
40.7%
Josh Hoover pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
40.7%
Josh Hoover pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:08
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+43
41.0%
Ethan Craw punt for 43 yds , Jamoi Mayes returns for no gain to the CIN 29 , returns for no gain to the CIN 29Similar
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-10
40.8%
BATTLE, Trent rush to the left for a loss of 1 yard to the CIN30 (MINKINS, Josh), out of bounds. PENALTY TCU Holding on DEERY, Coltin enforced 10 yards from the CIN29 to the CIN39 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 2TD
7 plays · 29 yds · 2:4759% → 60%
Q1 14:05
1ST & 20
OPP 39
+6
40.9%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Drake Dabney for 6 yds to the CIN 33Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 14
OPP 33
0
40.9%
Josh Hoover pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:05
3RD & 14
OPP 33
+19
40.9%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jack Bech for 19 yds to the CIN 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
40.8%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jack Bech for 3 yds to the CIN 11Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+3
40.8%
Trent Battle run for 3 yds to the CIN 8Similar
Q1 14:05
3RD & 4
OPP 8
+6
40.9%
Cam Cook run for 6 yds to the CIN 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
40.1%
Savion Williams run for 2 yds for a TD (Kyle Lemmermann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 3:5741% → 40%
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
40.5%
Corey Kiner run for 3 yds to the CIN 25Similar
Q1 11:10
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+4
40.5%
Corey Kiner run for 4 yds to the CIN 29Similar
Q1 11:10
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+4
40.5%
Corey Kiner run for 4 yds to the CIN 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
40.6%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Joe Royer for 4 yds to the CIN 37Similar
Q1 11:10
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+4
40.8%
Corey Kiner run for 4 yds to the CIN 41Similar
Q1 11:10
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+1
40.8%
Corey Kiner run for 1 yd to the CIN 42Similar
Q1 7:13
4TH & 1
OWN 42
0
40.3%
Mason Fletcher punt for 35 yds , JP Richardson returns for no gain to the TCU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:2860% → 61%
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
39.8%
Hauss Hejny run for 6 yds to the TCU 29Similar
Q1 7:13
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+5
39.5%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Savion Williams for 5 yds to the TCU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
39.6%
Josh Hoover pass complete to DJ Rogers for 6 yds to the TCU 40Similar
Q1 7:13
2ND & 4
OWN 40
0
39.3%
Savion Williams run for no gain to the TCU 40Similar
Q1 7:13
3RD & 4
OWN 40
0
39.4%
Josh Hoover pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:45
4TH & 4
OWN 40
0
39.5%
Ethan Craw punt for 55 yds, downed at the CIN 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 2:0040% → 39%
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+14
39.8%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Evan Pryor for 14 yds to the CIN 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
39.9%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
39.9%
Corey Kiner run for no gain to the CIN 19Similar
Q1 4:45
3RD & 10
OWN 19
+5
39.4%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Tony Johnson for 5 yds to the CIN 24Similar
Q1 2:45
4TH & 5
OWN 24
+6
39.1%
Mason Fletcher punt for 37 yds , JP Richardson returns for 6 yds to the TCU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 6FG
8 plays · 46 yds · 2:5862% → 62%
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
38.4%
Savion Williams run for 1 yd to the TCU 46Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+30
38.4%
Josh Hoover pass complete to JP Richardson for 30 yds to the CIN 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
38.1%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jack Bech for 5 yds to the CIN 19Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+8
38.0%
Cam Cook run for 8 yds to the CIN 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
37.2%
Cam Cook run for 2 yds to the CIN 9Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 9
0
37.2%
Josh Hoover pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 9
0
37.5%
Josh Hoover pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:47
4TH & 8
OPP 9
+27
37.7%
Kyle Lemmermann 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 7TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 3:3537% → 47%
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
36.9%
Evan Pryor run for 5 yds to the CIN 30Similar
Q2 14:47
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
37.2%
Brendan Sorsby run for 6 yds to the CIN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
37.3%
Brendan Sorsby run for 11 yds to the CIN 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
38.0%
Evan Pryor run for 4 yds to the TCU 49Similar
Q2 14:47
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+2
38.2%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Tony Johnson for 2 yds to the TCU 47Similar
Q2 14:47
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+46
38.0%
Corey Kiner run for 46 yds to the TCU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
46.8%
Corey Kiner run for 1 yd for a TD (Nathan Hawks KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 8TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 3:3857% → 67%
Q2 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
42.7%
Jeremy Payne run for 9 yds to the TCU 44Similar
Q2 11:12
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+2
41.6%
Jeremy Payne run for 2 yds to the TCU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+40
41.8%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Blake Nowell for 40 yds to the CIN 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+11
40.8%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 11 yds to the CIN 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
40.9%
Jeremy Payne run for 1 yd to the CIN 2Similar
Q2 11:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
40.8%
Savion Williams run for no gain to the CIN 2Similar
Q2 7:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
33.1%
Savion Williams run for 2 yds for a TD (Kyle Lemmermann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 9FUMBLE
6 plays · 10 yds · 1:4634% → 34%
Q2 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
33.8%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:28
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+1
33.7%
Corey Kiner run for 1 yd to the CIN 25Similar
Q2 6:28
3RD & 9
OWN 25
+8
33.1%
Corey Kiner run for 8 yds to the CIN 33Similar
Q2 6:28
4TH & 1
OWN 33
+4
33.7%
Corey Kiner run for 4 yds to the CIN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-3
34.4%
Corey Kiner run for a loss of 3 yards to the CIN 34 Corey Kiner fumbled, recovered by TCU Caleb Fox C. Fox return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 10FG
7 plays · 17 yds · 1:5869% → 71%
Q2 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
31.5%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Trent Battle for 3 yds to the CIN 31Similar
Q2 5:42
2ND & 7
OPP 31
0
31.5%
Josh Hoover pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:42
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+20
31.9%
Josh Hoover pass complete to JP Richardson for 20 yds to the CIN 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
31.4%
Josh Hoover pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:42
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
31.4%
Josh Hoover pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:42
3RD & 10
OPP 11
-6
31.9%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Trent Battle for a loss of 6 yards to the CIN 17Similar
Q2 3:44
4TH & 16
OPP 17
+35
29.3%
Kyle Lemmermann 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 2:2830% → 29%
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
30.0%
Corey Kiner run for 6 yds to the CIN 31Similar
Q2 3:38
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
30.6%
Brendan Sorsby run for 6 yds to the CIN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-6
28.7%
Brendan Sorsby sacked by Markis Deal for a loss of 6 yards to the CIN 31Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 16
OWN 31
+6
27.9%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Evan Pryor for 6 yds to the CIN 37Similar
Q2 1:13
3RD & 10
OWN 37
-1
28.6%
Corey Kiner run for a loss of 1 yard to the CIN 36Similar
Q2 1:10
4TH & 11
OWN 36
0
28.5%
Mason Fletcher punt for 36 yds, fair catch by JP Richardson at the TCU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 12MISSED FG
11 plays · 52 yds · 1:0776% → 80%
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
24.3%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Savion Williams for 3 yds to the TCU 31Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 7
OWN 31
0
24.4%
Josh Hoover pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+26
24.6%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Blake Nowell for 26 yds to the CIN 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
22.6%
Josh Hoover pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
22.9%
Josh Hoover pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+9
23.0%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Blake Nowell for 9 yds to the CIN 34Similar
Q2 1:10
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+12
23.7%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 12 yds to the CIN 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
20.2%
Josh Hoover run for 7 yds to the CIN 15Similar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 3
OPP 15
-5
20.2%
TCU Penalty, False Start (DJ Rogers) to the CIN 20Similar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+38
20.2%
Kyle Lemmermann 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
27.7%
[NHSG] Kneel down by SORSBY, Brendan at CIN19 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2428% → 27%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
28.1%
Corey Kiner run for a loss of 1 yard to the CIN 24Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
27.9%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+6
27.0%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Joe Royer for 6 yds to the CIN 30Similar
Q3 13:36
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
26.9%
Mason Fletcher punt for 36 yds, fair catch by JP Richardson at the TCU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:2175% → 76%
Q3 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
24.8%
Josh Hoover pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:36
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+12
24.8%
Trent Battle run for 12 yds to the TCU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
23.5%
Josh Hoover pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:36
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
23.6%
Trent Battle run for no gain to the TCU 46Similar
Q3 13:36
3RD & 10
OWN 46
0
24.1%
Josh Hoover pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:15
4TH & 10
OWN 46
0
23.6%
Ethan Craw punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jamoi Mayes at the CIN 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 16PUNT
12 plays · 24 yds · 5:0727% → 22%
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
26.5%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Joe Royer for 4 yds to the CIN 20Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 6
OWN 20
-1
26.5%
Corey Kiner run for a loss of 1 yard to the CIN 19Similar
Q3 12:15
3RD & 7
OWN 19
+9
25.6%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Jamoi Mayes for 9 yds Jamoi Mayes fumbled, recovered by CIN Jamoi Mayes J. Mayes return for 0 yds for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
26.9%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Joe Royer for 5 yds to the CIN 33Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+1
27.2%
Evan Pryor run for 1 yd to the CIN 34Similar
Q3 12:15
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+5
26.5%
Brendan Sorsby run for 5 yds to the CIN 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
27.4%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+2
27.3%
Brendan Sorsby run for 2 yds to the CIN 41Similar
Q3 7:14
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+4
22.2%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Joe Royer for 4 yds to the CIN 45Similar
Q3 7:14
4TH & 4
OWN 45
-5
22.4%
Cincinnati Penalty, False Start (Joe Royer) to the CIN 40Similar
Q3 7:08
4TH & 9
OWN 40
0
21.9%
Mason Fletcher punt for 40 yds, fair catch by JP Richardson at the TCU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 17INT
10 plays · 36 yds · 4:3481% → 87%
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
19.0%
Hauss Hejny run for 7 yds to the TCU 27Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+3
18.6%
Cam Cook run for 3 yds to the TCU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
18.7%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 13 yds to the TCU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
17.5%
Cam Cook run for 5 yds to the TCU 48Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+2
17.5%
Cam Cook run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 7:08
3RD & 3
50
+2
17.6%
Trent Battle run for 2 yds to the CIN 48Similar
Q3 7:08
4TH & 1
OPP 48
+2
18.9%
Josh Hoover run for 2 yds to the CIN 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
17.2%
Josh Hoover pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+2
17.3%
Jeremy Payne run for 2 yds to the CIN 44Similar
Q3 2:34
3RD & 8
OPP 44
0
12.9%
Josh Hoover pass intercepted Trevon Gola-Callard return for no gain to the CIN 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 18INT
16 plays · 61 yds · 6:0019% → 19%
Q3 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
18.9%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Tony Johnson for 6 yds to the CIN 33Similar
Q3 2:34
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+6
19.4%
Corey Kiner run for 6 yds to the CIN 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
19.5%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
19.6%
Evan Pryor run for 1 yd to the TCU 47Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 9
OPP 47
0
19.5%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+13
18.4%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Jamoi Mayes for 13 yds to the TCU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 9
OPP 47
+10
18.0%
Brendan Sorsby run for 10 yds to the TCU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
19.1%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Tony Johnson for 4 yds to the TCU 33Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 33
0
20.6%
Evan Prater pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 33
+5
19.1%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Joe Royer for 5 yds to the TCU 28Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 28
+5
18.9%
Corey Kiner run for 5 yds to the TCU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
20.6%
Brendan Sorsby run for 6 yds to the TCU 17Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+5
20.6%
Corey Kiner run for 5 yds to the TCU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
20.6%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:34
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
18.8%
Brendan Sorsby pass intercepted, touchback. Channing Canada return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:2891% → 93%
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
8.8%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Savion Williams for 7 yds to the TCU 27Similar
Q4 10:16
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+2
7.2%
Savion Williams run for 2 yds to the TCU 29Similar
Q4 10:16
3RD & 1
OWN 29
0
7.7%
Savion Williams run for no gain to the TCU 29Similar
Q4 9:06
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
7.4%
Ethan Craw punt for 65 yds, downed at the CIN 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 20TD
13 plays · 94 yds · 3:5110% → 26%
Q4 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+10
10.2%
Corey Kiner run for 10 yds to the CIN 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
10.6%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:06
2ND & 10
OWN 16
0
10.4%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:06
3RD & 10
OWN 16
+11
10.1%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Sterling Berkhalter for 11 yds to the CIN 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+28
10.7%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 28 yds to the TCU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
12.4%
Corey Kiner run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 46Similar
Q4 9:06
2ND & 11
OPP 46
+25
11.9%
Brendan Sorsby run for 25 yds to the TCU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+9
15.2%
Brendan Sorsby run for 9 yds to the TCU 12Similar
Q4 9:06
2ND & 1
OPP 12
+8
15.2%
Corey Kiner run for 8 yds to the TCU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
15.2%
Corey Kiner run for 1 yd to the TCU 3Similar
Q4 9:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
15.2%
Cincinnati Penalty, False Start (Phillip Wilder) to the TCU 8Similar
Q4 9:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
15.2%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
26.4%
Brendan Sorsby run for 8 yds for a TD (Nathan Hawks PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 21PUNT
12 plays · 30 yds · 4:1087% → 97%
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+21
12.8%
Hauss Hejny run for 21 yds to the CIN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
10.5%
Hauss Hejny run for 3 yds to the CIN 45Similar
Q4 3:39
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+8
10.3%
Hauss Hejny run for 8 yds to the CIN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
5.8%
Hauss Hejny run for 3 yds to the CIN 34Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 7
OPP 34
0
4.0%
Hauss Hejny run for no gain to the CIN 34Similar
Q4 1:10
3RD & 7
OPP 34
0
2.4%
Hauss Hejny run for no gain to the CIN 34Similar
Q4 1:10
4TH & 7
OPP 34
-5
3.0%
TCU Penalty, False Start (Ben Taylor-Whitfield) to the CIN 39Similar
Q4 1:00
4TH & 12
OPP 39
0
2.9%
Ethan Craw punt for 36 yds, downed at the CIN 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 22END OF GAME
9 plays · 57 yds · 1:0012% → 17%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+4
11.8%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Joe Royer for 4 yds to the CIN 7Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 6
OWN 7
+9
11.7%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 9 yds to the CIN 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
12.4%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Jamoi Mayes for 8 yds to the CIN 24Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 2
OWN 24
+4
13.1%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Tony Johnson for 4 yds to the CIN 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+12
13.0%
SORSBY, Brendan pass deep to the left incomplete intended for JOHNSON, Tony thrown to the CIN45. PENALTY TCU Pass Interference on CLARK, Bud enforced 12 yards to the CIN40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
14.3%
Brendan Sorsby run for 11 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
15.8%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 9 yds to the TCU 40Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 1
OPP 40
0
20.1%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 40
0
17.1%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-17.1
KEY PLAY · Q4 5:10
Hauss Hejny run for 21 yds to the CIN 48 for a 1ST down
-13.6
TD · Q4 5:15
Brendan Sorsby run for 8 yds for a TD (Nathan Hawks PAT MISSED)
+11.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com