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Win probability · BAY
modelBAY aheadKU aheadconfidence bandkey playBAY scoreKU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:08 · Palmer Williams punt for 50 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame prior
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 2:51: Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 36 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK) — BAY win probability +4.4 pts (now 50%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
- TD · Q1 1:08: Monaray Baldwin 39 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Isaiah Hankins Kick) — BAY win probability +8.2 pts (now 56%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:58: Bryson Washington run for 10 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK) — BAY win probability +13.3 pts (now 89%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
- TD · Q3 6:25: Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Dawson Pendergrass for 20 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK) — BAY win probability +6.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:03: Lawrence Arnold run for 14 yds for a TD (Tabor Allen KICK) — KU win probability +7.8 pts (now 12%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
BAY made the numbers' call on 3 of 4KU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
- Q1 12:25KU 4th & 5 at BAY 20, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.7% before the snapGo for it50.7%−<0.140% to convertField goalTheir call50.7%75% to makePunt50.3%−0.4average punt
- Q1 9:03BAY 4th & 19 at BAY 39, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 49.7% before the snapGo for it49.5%−0.411% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call49.8%average punt
- Q2 9:16KU 4th & 8 at BAY 8, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.1% before the snapGo for it32.1%−0.526% to convertField goalTheir call32.6%90% to makePunt26.1%−6.5average punt
- Q2 4:28KU 4th & 10 at KU 25, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.8% before the snapGo for it29.1%−0.928% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call29.9%average punt
- Q2 3:08BAY 4th & 7 at BAY 42, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.8% before the snapGo for it68.4%−0.337% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call68.7%average punt
- Q2 0:01BAY 4th & 17 at KU 36, up 11Close callKicked a field goal · 72.2% before the snapGo for it70.7%−1.315% to convertField goalTheir call71.9%−0.142% to makePunt72.0%average punt
- Q3 9:49KU 4th & 4 at KU 31, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.5% before the snapGo for it12.9%−1.048% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.9%average punt
- Q4 9:31BAY 4th & 5 at KU 23, up 25Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.4% before the snapGo for it99.4%−<0.140% to convertField goalTheir call99.4%70% to makePunt98.6%−0.8average punt
- Q4 6:48KU 4th & 1 at BAY 20, down 28Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−<0.171% to convertField goal0.2%75% to makePunt-0.1%−0.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BAY made the numbers' call on 5 of 5KU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 5:18KU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call52.1%97% to makeGo for two52.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:51BAY Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call51.1%97% to makeGo for two51.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:08BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call55.6%97% to makeGo for two55.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:58BAY Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.5%97% to makeGo for two86.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:25BAY Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.9%97% to makeGo for two95.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:03KU Touchdown, down 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call7.0%97% to makeGo for two7.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:07BAY Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.1%97% to makeGo for two98.1%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartKUDrive 1MISSED FG6 plays · 49 yds · 2:2754% → 54%
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+33
46.0%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Quentin Skinner for 33 yds to the BAY 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 2PUNT8 plays · 18 yds · 3:1747% → 47%
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+14
46.7%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 14 yds to the BAY 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-6
47.4%
Sawyer Robertson sacked by D.J. Withers for a loss of 6 yards to the BAY 42Similar
Q1 10:18
2ND & 16
OWN 42
+7
47.2%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Hal Presley for 7 yds to the BAY 49Similar
Q1 9:45
3RD & 9
OWN 49
-10
47.4%
Sawyer Robertson sacked by JB Brown for a loss of 10 yards to the BAY 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 3TD7 plays · 83 yds · 3:4153% → 57%
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
46.7%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Trevor Kardell for 6 yds to the BAY 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 4TD6 plays · 75 yds · 2:2744% → 50%
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
44.4%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 13 yds to the BAY 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:14
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+14
45.0%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 14 yds to the KU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:51
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+36
49.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 36 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 5INT4 plays · 24 yds · 1:0952% → 53%
BAYDrive 6TD2 plays · 70 yds · 1:3956% → 55%
KUDrive 7FG15 plays · 67 yds · 4:3539% → 35%
BAYDrive 8TD8 plays · 82 yds · 3:0968% → 67%
Q2 8:15
3RD & 4
OWN 24
+23
68.0%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 23 yds to the BAY 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
69.3%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 7 yds to the KU 46Similar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 3
OPP 14
+14
66.5%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 14 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 1:2535% → 31%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 10PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1068% → 67%
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
68.2%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 1 yd to the BAY 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 11FUMBLE6 plays · 68 yds · 1:3431% → 32%
Q2 1:59
3RD & 7
OWN 11
+25
69.6%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Quentin Skinner for 25 yds to the KU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+40
68.4%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Tevita Ahoafi-Noa for 40 yds fumbled, forced by Tevin Williams III, recovered by BAY Matt Jones M. Jones return for 5 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 12MISSED FG12 plays · 35 yds · 1:0770% → 70%
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+15
70.1%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 15 yds to the BAY 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+16
71.4%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Hal Presley for 16 yds to the KU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
3RD & 10
OPP 29
-7
71.7%
Sawyer Robertson sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the KU 36 Sawyer Robertson fumbled, recovered by BAY Sawyer Robertson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 13TD9 plays · 74 yds · 4:0272% → 89%
Q3 14:28
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+7
72.3%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 7 yds to the BAY 35Similar
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+14
75.1%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 14 yds to the KU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:05
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+8
75.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 8 yds to the KU 14Similar
Q3 10:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
88.9%
Bryson Washington run for 10 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 14PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0816% → 13%
Q3 9:49
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
86.9%
Damon Greaves punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Josh Cameron at the BAY 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 15TD7 plays · 62 yds · 3:1690% → 98%
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
90.7%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 12 yds to the KU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+12
91.0%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 12 yds to the KU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:25
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+20
97.7%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Dawson Pendergrass for 20 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 16TD3 plays · 75 yds · 1:163% → 12%
Q3 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+48
96.9%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Luke Grimm for 48 yds to the BAY 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 17TD10 plays · 74 yds · 4:5492% → 99%
Q3 4:29
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+9
92.2%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Hal Presley for 9 yds to the BAY 35Similar
Q3 2:51
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+5
93.5%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Richard Reese for 5 yds to the BAY 46Similar
Q3 2:12
3RD & 2
OWN 46
-5
93.7%
(02:12) ROBERTSON, Sawyer pass to the left complete for 11 yards to WASHINGTON, Bryson to the KU43 (BERRYHILL, Taiwan), clock 02:05. PENALTY Before the snap, BU Illegal Motion enforced 5 yards from the BU46 to the BU41. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 18INT3 plays · 55 yds · 0:491% → 2%
Q3 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+32
98.6%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Jared Casey for 32 yds to the BAY 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:59
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+23
98.5%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Luke Grimm for 23 yds to the BAY 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
98.4%
Jalon Daniels pass intercepted, touchback. Devyn Bobby return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 19FG11 plays · 57 yds · 4:4299% → 100%
Q4 14:06
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+14
99.1%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Bryson Washington for 14 yds to the BAY 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:07
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+5
99.2%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 5 yds to the BAY 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:15
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+5
99.4%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Matthew Klopfenstein for 5 yds to the KU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 20DOWNS8 plays · 54 yds · 2:390% → 0%
Q4 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
99.9%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Jared Casey for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 21END OF GAME13 plays · 53 yds · 6:10100% → 100%
Q4 3:31
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+5
99.9%
(03:31) ROBERTSON, Sawyer pass deep to the right incomplete intended for PORTER, Jadon thrown to the KU35, clock 03:28. PENALTY KU Offsides on JOBE, Bai enforced 5 yards from the BU41 to the BU46 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 0:34
2ND & 10
OPP 24
-2
100.0%
(00:34) [NH] Kneel down by BENNETT, Nate at KU26 (team loss of 2), clock 00:24.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:58
Bryson Washington run for 10 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)
+13.3
TD · Q1 1:08
Monaray Baldwin 39 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Isaiah Hankins Kick)
+8.2
TD · Q3 5:03
Lawrence Arnold run for 14 yds for a TD (Tabor Allen KICK)
-7.8