Try the model
UTAH

Utah 28 at UCF 14

UCF
2024 · Week 14 · Nov 29, 2024 · FBC Mortgage Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UCF
modelUCF aheadUTAH aheadconfidence bandkey playUCF scoreUTAH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:52 · Jack Bouwmeester punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Kam Ingram at the UCF 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+51.5+25.80−25.8−51.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 42Home team on offense−1.6Pregame prior+19.1Score differential−1.2Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:45: Dylan Rizk pass intercepted Zemaiah Vaughn return for 60 yds for a TD (Trey Coleman KICK) — UTAH win probability +9.7 pts (now 43%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:25: RJ Harvey run for 5 yds for a TD (Grant Reddick KICK) — UCF win probability +11.5 pts (now 67%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  3. FG · Q2 1:17: Trey Coleman 24 yd FG GOOD — UTAH win probability +4.3 pts (now 48%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 4:50: Zacharyus Williams run for 11 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST down — UTAH win probability +7.8 pts (now 60%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:46: Luke Bottari pass complete to Landen King for 15 yds for a TD (Luke Bottari pass to Micah Bernard for Two-Point Conversion) — UTAH win probability +18.4 pts (now 85%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCF made the numbers' call on 4 of 10UTAH made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
  1. Q1 6:52UTAH 4th & 6 at UCF 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.9%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.9%
    77% to make
    Punt
    25.9%−1.0
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:54UCF 4th & 3 at UCF 43, down 3
    Close callPunted · 71.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.8%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:34UTAH 4th & 5 at UTAH 31, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.8%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:50UCF 4th & 5 at UTAH 46, down 3
    Close callPunted · 70.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    69.8%−0.7
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    70.4%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:52UTAH 4th & 11 at UTAH 19, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.7%−0.8
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:30UCF 4th & 5 at UTAH 48, down 3
    Close callPunted · 68.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.6%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:55UTAH 4th & 5 at UTAH 19, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.3%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:23UCF 4th & 1 at UTAH 33, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    52.8%−2.0
    49% to make
    Punt
    51.8%−3.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:17UTAH 4th & 6 at UCF 6, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.6%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    33.7%−6.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:23UCF 4th & 6 at UCF 49, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.1%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:26UTAH 4th & 22 at UTAH 25, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.4%−4.9
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:28UCF 4th & 16 at UCF 11, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.5%−4.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:34UTAH 4th & 9 at UTAH 36, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.9%−2.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:59UCF 4th & 10 at UTAH 36, down 6
    Close callWent for it · 47.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.1%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    47.2%
    42% to make
    Punt
    46.5%−0.7
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:09UTAH 4th & 3 at UCF 31, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    58.5%−2.2
    54% to make
    Punt
    56.2%−4.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:31UCF 4th & 8 at UTAH 27, down 14
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.2 ptsWent for it · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.6%−1.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    18.8%
    62% to make
    Punt
    12.2%−6.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:49UTAH 4th & 14 at midfield, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.4%−1.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.7%
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:30UCF 4th & 9 at UTAH 39, down 14
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.0 ptsWent for it · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.4%−1.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    6.4%
    36% to make
    Punt
    5.3%−1.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:57UTAH 4th & 7 at UTAH 48, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.5%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.6%
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:32UCF 4th & 4 at UTAH 43, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    0.8%−<0.1
    28% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCF made the numbers' call on 1 of 2UTAH made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q2 7:45UTAH Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:25UCF Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 14:46UTAH Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    77.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    77.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 3:34UTAH Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 0:19UCF Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.3%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCFDrive 1FUMBLE
14 plays · 21 yds · 5:1876% → 75%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
76.2%
RJ Harvey run for 9 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q1 14:33
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
76.1%
RJ Harvey run for 3 yds to the UCF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
76.1%
Dylan Rizk pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:03
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+11
76.0%
Dylan Rizk pass complete to Chauncey Magwood for 11 yds to the UCF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
76.0%
Dylan Rizk run for 7 yds to the UTAH 45Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 3
OPP 45
0
76.0%
Dylan Rizk pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:55
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+4
75.9%
RJ Harvey run for 4 yds to the UTAH 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+11
75.9%
Dylan Rizk pass complete to Johnny Richardson for 11 yds to the UTAH 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
75.9%
UCF Penalty, False Start (Chauncey Magwood) to the UTAH 35Similar
Q1 11:44
1ST & 15
OPP 35
+3
75.8%
Myles Montgomery run for 3 yds to the UTAH 32Similar
Q1 10:52
2ND & 12
OPP 32
-10
75.7%
(10:52) HARVEY, RJ rush to the left for no gain to the UTE32 (FANO, Logan), clock 10:39. PENALTY UCF Holding on PITTMAN JR., Randy enforced 10 yards from the UTE32 to the UTE42 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 10:22
2ND & 22
OPP 42
+13
75.4%
Dylan Rizk pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 13 yds to the UTAH 29Similar
Q1 9:42
3RD & 9
OPP 29
-25
75.4%
Dylan Rizk sacked for a loss of 25 yards to the UCF 46 Dylan Rizk fumbled, recovered by UTAH Logan Fano , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 2FG
7 plays · 27 yds · 2:4026% → 27%
Q1 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
74.4%
Luke Bottari pass complete to Dorian Singer for 6 yds to the UCF 40Similar
Q1 8:58
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+17
74.1%
Luke Bottari pass complete to Zacharyus Williams for 17 yds to the UCF 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
73.7%
Luke Bottari pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+5
73.7%
Micah Bernard run for 5 yds to the UCF 18Similar
Q1 7:41
3RD & 5
OPP 18
+4
73.6%
Micah Bernard run for 4 yds to the UCF 14Similar
Q1 7:11
4TH & 1
OPP 14
-5
73.7%
Utah Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UCF 19Similar
Q1 6:52
4TH & 6
OPP 19
+37
73.3%
Cole Becker 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:5473% → 72%
Q1 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
73.2%
RJ Harvey run for 1 yd to the UCF 26Similar
Q1 6:25
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-1
73.0%
RJ Harvey run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 25Similar
Q1 5:58
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+11
72.3%
Dylan Rizk pass complete to Jarrad Baker for 11 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
72.8%
Dylan Rizk pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 8 yds to the UCF 44Similar
Q1 5:07
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+1
73.2%
Myles Montgomery run for 1 yd to the UCF 45Similar
Q1 4:25
3RD & 1
OWN 45
-2
72.7%
RJ Harvey run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 43Similar
Q1 3:54
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
72.1%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Dorian Singer at the UTAH 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 2:0728% → 28%
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+11
72.4%
Micah Bernard run for 11 yds to the UTAH 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
72.1%
Micah Bernard run for 5 yds to the UTAH 31Similar
Q1 2:29
2ND & 5
OWN 31
0
71.1%
Zacharyus Williams run for no gain to the UTAH 31Similar
Q1 1:49
3RD & 5
OWN 31
0
71.2%
Luke Bottari pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:34
4TH & 5
OWN 31
+9
71.7%
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 46 yds , Kam Ingram returns for 9 yds to the UCF 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 22 yds · 1:3271% → 71%
Q1 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+17
70.9%
RJ Harvey run for 17 yds to the UCF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
71.9%
RJ Harvey run for 3 yds to the UTAH 48Similar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+2
71.8%
Myles Montgomery run for 2 yds to the UTAH 46Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 46
0
71.4%
Dylan Rizk pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:50
4TH & 5
OPP 46
0
70.5%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:5230% → 30%
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
70.0%
Micah Bernard run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTAH 19Similar
Q2 14:09
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+2
69.9%
Luke Bottari pass complete to Carsen Ryan for 2 yds to the UTAH 21Similar
Q2 13:36
3RD & 9
OWN 21
-2
70.1%
Luke Bottari sacked for a loss of 2 yards to the UTAH 19 Luke Bottari fumbled, recovered by UTAH Caleb Lomu , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 12:52
4TH & 11
OWN 19
0
70.4%
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Kam Ingram at the UCF 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 2:1570% → 69%
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
69.7%
Dylan Rizk pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:39
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+10
69.4%
Dylan Rizk pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 10 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
70.5%
Jacurri Brown run for 6 yds to the UTAH 47Similar
Q2 11:18
2ND & 4
OPP 47
-1
70.5%
RJ Harvey run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTAH 48Similar
Q2 10:51
3RD & 5
OPP 48
0
69.9%
Dylan Rizk pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:30
4TH & 5
OPP 48
0
68.6%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Dorian Singer at the UTAH 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3132% → 31%
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
68.2%
Micah Bernard run for 1 yd to the UTAH 15Similar
Q2 9:47
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+4
67.8%
Micah Bernard run for 4 yds to the UTAH 19Similar
Q2 9:02
3RD & 5
OWN 19
0
67.9%
Luke Bottari pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:55
4TH & 5
OWN 19
0
68.6%
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 45 yds, downed at the UCF 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 9INT TD
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:5768% → 57%
Q2 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
67.6%
Dylan Rizk pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+2
67.0%
RJ Harvey run for 2 yds to the UCF 38Similar
Q2 7:45
3RD & 8
OWN 38
-60
57.3%
Dylan Rizk pass intercepted Zemaiah Vaughn return for 60 yds for a TD (Trey Coleman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 10TD
11 plays · 89 yds · 4:1657% → 67%
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
56.6%
Dylan Rizk pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 4 yds to the UCF 15Similar
Q2 7:16
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+10
56.2%
Myles Montgomery run for 10 yds to the UCF 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
55.9%
Myles Montgomery run for 3 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q2 6:02
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+30
55.5%
Dylan Rizk pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 30 yds to the UTAH 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
57.4%
Myles Montgomery run for 5 yds to the UTAH 37Similar
Q2 5:07
2ND & 5
OPP 37
0
56.9%
Dylan Rizk pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:55
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+4
56.4%
Dylan Rizk run for 4 yds to the UTAH 33Similar
Q2 4:23
4TH & 1
OPP 33
+23
54.6%
RJ Harvey run for 23 yds to the UTAH 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
55.9%
RJ Harvey run for 5 yds to the UTAH 5Similar
Q2 3:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
67.3%
RJ Harvey run for 5 yds for a TD (Grant Reddick KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 11FG
9 plays · 61 yds · 2:0038% → 48%
Q2 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
61.7%
Micah Bernard run for 6 yds to the UTAH 39Similar
Q2 2:42
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+12
60.0%
Micah Bernard run for 12 yds to the UCF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
58.5%
Micah Bernard run for 9 yds to the UCF 40Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+33
57.1%
Luke Bottari pass complete to Zacharyus Williams for 33 yds to the UCF 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
56.0%
(01:49) BOTTARI, Luke pass to the right complete for -5 yards to FANO, Spencer caught at the UCF14 and advanced to the UCF12 (ALEXANDER, Xe'ree;DOTSON, Daylan), clock 01:40. PENALTY UTE Illegal Touch-Pass on FANO, Spencer enforced 5 yards from the UCF7 to the UCF12, penalty results in a loss of down [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+6
55.8%
Luke Bottari pass complete to Carsen Ryan for 6 yds to the UCF 6Similar
Q2 1:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
56.5%
Luke Bottari pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
52.2%
Trey Coleman 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 0:5454% → 56%
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
54.4%
Utah Penalty, Targeting on GILMAN, Alaka'i enforced (Alaka'i Gilman) to the UCF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
56.0%
EJ Colson run for no gain to the UCF 45Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+4
54.6%
Dylan Rizk pass complete to RJ Harvey for 4 yds to the UCF 49Similar
Q2 0:28
3RD & 6
OWN 49
0
55.4%
Dylan Rizk pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:23
4TH & 6
OWN 49
0
55.7%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 49 yds, downed at the UTAH 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:0946% → 46%
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+7
54.5%
Luke Bottari run for 7 yds to the UTAH 9Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
54.3%
Utah Penalty, Delay Of Game (Luke Bottari) to the UTAH 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 0 yds · 3:3445% → 46%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+4
55.0%
Micah Bernard run for 4 yds to the UTAH 24Similar
Q3 14:23
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+9
54.6%
Micah Bernard run for 9 yds to the UTAH 33Similar
Q3 13:43
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
52.6%
Mike Mitchell run for 4 yds to the UTAH 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
51.6%
Mike Mitchell run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTAH 35Similar
Q3 12:42
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+5
52.6%
Luke Bottari pass complete to Dorian Singer for 5 yds to the UTAH 40Similar
Q3 12:02
3RD & 7
OWN 40
-15
50.6%
Luke Bottari sacked by Nyjalik Kelly for a loss of 15 yards to the UTAH 25Similar
Q3 11:26
4TH & 22
OWN 25
+14
54.1%
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 62 yds , Trent Whittemore returns for 14 yds to the UCF 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:3554% → 50%
Q3 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
53.9%
RJ Harvey run for 1 yd to the UCF 18Similar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 9
OWN 18
-2
53.4%
(10:35) HARVEY, RJ rush to the right for a gain of 2 yards to the UCF20 (FILLINGER, Van;BARTON, Lander), clock 10:18. PENALTY UCF Holding on KITLER, Caden enforced half the distance from the goal, 9 yards from the UCF18 to the UCF9 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 18
OWN 9
0
52.5%
Dylan Rizk pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:01
3RD & 18
OWN 9
+2
51.1%
RJ Harvey run for 2 yds to the UCF 11Similar
Q3 9:28
4TH & 16
OWN 11
0
50.4%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Dorian Singer at the UTAH 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:4452% → 51%
Q3 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
47.6%
Luke Bottari pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
48.1%
Micah Bernard run for 5 yds to the UTAH 40Similar
Q3 8:41
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+1
45.8%
Luke Bottari pass complete to Micah Bernard for 1 yd to the UTAH 41Similar
Q3 7:54
4TH & 4
OWN 41
-5
47.2%
Utah Penalty, Delay Of Game (Jack Bouwmeester) to the UTAH 36Similar
Q3 7:34
4TH & 9
OWN 36
+2
48.9%
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 48 yds , Trent Whittemore returns for 2 yds to the UCF 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 17DOWNS
9 plays · 31 yds · 2:2751% → 48%
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
51.3%
Dylan Rizk pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 7 yds to the UCF 25Similar
Q3 7:03
2ND & 3
OWN 25
+12
50.9%
RJ Harvey run for 12 yds to the UCF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
50.8%
Trent Whittemore pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:24
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+9
50.5%
Dylan Rizk pass complete to Trent Whittemore for 9 yds to the UCF 46Similar
Q3 5:53
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+18
52.0%
RJ Harvey pass complete to Randy Pittman Jr. for 18 yds to the UTAH 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
53.8%
Dylan Rizk pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:09
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
53.6%
Dylan Rizk pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:05
3RD & 10
OPP 36
0
52.3%
Dylan Rizk pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:59
4TH & 10
OPP 36
-15
48.0%
Dylan Rizk sacked for a loss of 15 yards to the UCF 49 TEAM fumbled, recovered by UCF , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 18TD
9 plays · 49 yds · 5:0460% → 85%
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
40.2%
Zacharyus Williams run for 11 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
39.6%
Micah Bernard run for 1 yd to the UCF 37Similar
Q3 3:27
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+2
38.9%
Micah Bernard run for 2 yds to the UCF 35Similar
Q3 2:49
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+4
38.6%
Luke Bottari pass complete to Dorian Singer for 4 yds to the UCF 31Similar
Q3 2:09
4TH & 3
OPP 31
+4
40.4%
Luke Bottari pass complete to Zacharyus Williams for 4 yds to the UCF 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
34.8%
Micah Bernard run for 1 yd to the UCF 26Similar
Q3 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-2
34.1%
Luke Bottari pass complete to Zacharyus Williams for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 15Similar
Q4 14:57
2ND & 12
OPP 15
0
33.8%
Luke Bottari pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:46
3RD & 12
OPP 15
+15
15.5%
Luke Bottari pass complete to Landen King for 15 yds for a TD (Luke Bottari pass to Micah Bernard for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 19DOWNS
8 plays · 48 yds · 2:1520% → 19%
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
19.6%
UCF Penalty, Delay Of Game (Dylan Rizk) to the UCF 20Similar
Q4 14:42
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+14
19.2%
RJ Harvey run for 14 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q4 14:17
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-1
20.4%
RJ Harvey run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 33Similar
Q4 13:43
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+38
19.5%
Jacurri Brown run for 38 yds to the UTAH 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
21.9%
Myles Montgomery run for 2 yds to the UTAH 27Similar
Q4 12:47
2ND & 8
OPP 27
0
21.5%
Dylan Rizk pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:37
3RD & 8
OPP 27
0
20.1%
Dylan Rizk pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:31
4TH & 8
OPP 27
0
19.1%
Dylan Rizk pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 4:3888% → 92%
Q4 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
12.5%
Micah Bernard run for 2 yds to the UTAH 29Similar
Q4 11:55
2ND & 8
OWN 29
0
12.0%
Luke Bottari pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:52
3RD & 8
OWN 29
+15
12.0%
Luke Bottari pass complete to Zacharyus Williams for 15 yds to the UTAH 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
10.4%
Micah Bernard run for 5 yds to the UTAH 49Similar
Q4 10:26
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+5
9.1%
Luke Bottari pass complete to Zacharyus Williams for 5 yds to the UCF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
8.2%
Micah Bernard run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 47Similar
Q4 9:12
2ND & 11
OPP 47
+4
7.8%
Luke Bottari run for 4 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q4 8:34
3RD & 7
OPP 43
-7
7.8%
Luke Bottari run for a loss of 7 yards to the 50 yard line Luke Bottari fumbled, recovered by UTAH Luke Bottari , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 7:49
4TH & 14
50
0
7.9%
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Trent Whittemore at the UCF 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 21DOWNS
8 plays · 41 yds · 3:109% → 7%
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+8
8.7%
EJ Colson pass complete to Evan Morris for 8 yds to the UCF 22Similar
Q4 7:17
2ND & 2
OWN 22
+17
8.3%
RJ Harvey run for 17 yds to the UCF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
8.5%
RJ Harvey run for 6 yds to the UCF 45Similar
Q4 6:27
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+15
8.0%
(06:27) COLSON, EJ pass deep to the left incomplete intended for MAGWOOD, Chauncey thrown to the UTE15, clock 06:22. PENALTY UTE Pass Interference on DAVIS, Elijah enforced 15 yards to the UTE40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-11
8.3%
EJ Colson sacked by Lander Barton for a loss of 11 yards to the UCF 49Similar
Q4 5:47
2ND & 21
OWN 49
-4
7.1%
EJ Colson run for a loss of 4 yards to the UCF 45Similar
Q4 5:03
3RD & 25
OWN 45
+16
6.5%
EJ Colson pass complete to Randy Pittman Jr. for 16 yds to the UTAH 39Similar
Q4 4:30
4TH & 9
OPP 39
-6
6.5%
EJ Colson sacked by Karene Reid for a loss of 6 yards to the UTAH 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:1895% → 96%
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
4.6%
Micah Bernard run for 2 yds to the UTAH 47Similar
Q4 4:10
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+1
4.2%
Micah Bernard run for 1 yd to the UTAH 48Similar
Q4 3:59
3RD & 7
OWN 48
0
4.2%
Micah Bernard run for no gain to the UTAH 48Similar
Q4 3:57
4TH & 7
OWN 48
0
3.8%
Jack Bouwmeester punt for 42 yds, downed at the UCF 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 23INT TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:124% → 1%
Q4 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
3.5%
EJ Colson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:34
2ND & 10
OWN 10
-13
0.9%
EJ Colson pass intercepted Smith Snowden return for 13 yds for a TD (Trey Coleman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 24TD
18 plays · 75 yds · 3:151% → 2%
Q4 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
1.0%
EJ Colson run for 8 yds to the UCF 33Similar
Q4 3:07
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
0.9%
EJ Colson pass complete to Randy Pittman Jr. for 5 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+13
0.9%
EJ Colson pass complete to Myles Montgomery for 13 yds to the UTAH 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
0.9%
EJ Colson run for 4 yds to the UTAH 45Similar
Q4 2:13
2ND & 6
OPP 45
-5
0.9%
EJ Colson sacked by Dallas Vakalahi for a loss of 5 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 11
50
+7
0.3%
EJ Colson pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 7 yds to the UTAH 43Similar
Q4 1:32
4TH & 4
OPP 43
+7
0.3%
EJ Colson run for 7 yds to the UTAH 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
0.3%
COLSON, EJ pass to the right incomplete intended for WHITTEMORE, Trent thrown to the UTE25, clock 01:20. PENALTY UTE Offsides on FITZGERALD, Paul enforced 5 yards from the UTE36 to the UTE31 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 5
OPP 31
+9
0.4%
EJ Colson pass complete to RJ Harvey for 9 yds to the UTAH 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
0.4%
EJ Colson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:06
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+6
0.4%
EJ Colson pass complete to Randy Pittman Jr. for 6 yds to the UTAH 16Similar
Q4 0:47
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+9
0.3%
EJ Colson run for 9 yds to the UTAH 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
0.4%
UCF Penalty, False Start (Paul Rubelt) to the UTAH 12Similar
Q4 0:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 12
0
0.4%
EJ Colson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+6
0.3%
EJ Colson run for 6 yds to the UTAH 6Similar
Q4 0:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
1.7%
EJ Colson pass complete to RJ Harvey for 6 yds for a TD (Grant Reddick KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 25END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-2
1.5%
(00:17) [NHSG] Kneel down by TEAM at UCF49 (team loss of 2), clock 00:11.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:46
Luke Bottari pass complete to Landen King for 15 yds for a TD (Luke Bottari pass to Micah Bernard for Two-Point Conversion)
-18.4
TD · Q2 3:25
RJ Harvey run for 5 yds for a TD (Grant Reddick KICK)
+11.5
TD · Q2 7:45
Dylan Rizk pass intercepted Zemaiah Vaughn return for 60 yds for a TD (Trey Coleman KICK)
-9.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com