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ARIZ

Arizona 28 at TCU 49

TCU
2024 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2024 · Amon G. Carter Stadium
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Win probability · TCU
modelTCU aheadARIZ aheadconfidence bandkey playTCU scoreARIZ score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:14 · Ethan Craw punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Patterson at the ARIZ 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 45Pregame prior+21.2Home team on offense+3.2Score differential+0.6Garbage-time factor+1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.8Blowout margin−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:16: Noah Fifita pass complete to Chris Hunter for 17 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK) — ARIZ win probability +3.5 pts (now 23%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:13: Savion Williams run for 20 yds for a TD (Kyle Lemmermann KICK) — TCU win probability +9.2 pts (now 82%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:13: Trent Battle run for 1 yd for a TD (Kyle Lemmermann KICK) — TCU win probability +6.1 pts (now 90%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:51: Josh Hoover pass complete to JP Richardson for 38 yds for a TD (Kyle Lemmermann KICK) — TCU win probability +5.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:53: Chris Hunter 3 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Noah Fifita Pass to Jeremiah Patterson for Two-Point Conversion) — ARIZ win probability +7.1 pts (now 9%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TCU made the numbers' call on 2 of 4ARIZ made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 10:41ARIZ 4th & 11 at ARIZ 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.7%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:08ARIZ 4th & 19 at ARIZ 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.1%−0.4
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.5%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:14TCU 4th & 2 at TCU 33, up 7
    Close callPunted · 76.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:08ARIZ 4th & 8 at TCU 35, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.5%
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.3%−0.2
    45% to make
    Punt
    21.8%−0.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:00TCU 4th & 13 at TCU 22, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.4%−1.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:55ARIZ 4th & 20 at TCU 25, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.1%−1.5
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.7%
    66% to make
    Punt
    23.4%−3.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:13TCU 4th & 1 at ARIZ 20, up 1
    Close callWent for it · 72.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.2%−0.9
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    73.1%
    75% to make
    Punt
    69.4%−3.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:31TCU 4th & 1 at ARIZ 26, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    79.7%−1.9
    64% to make
    Punt
    74.7%−6.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:42ARIZ 4th & 3 at ARIZ 32, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.1%−0.4
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:01ARIZ 4th & 3 at TCU 19, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.4%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    3.0%−0.4
    77% to make
    Punt
    -0.5%−3.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:53ARIZ 4th & 3 at TCU 3, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.1%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    1.6%−0.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    -1.6%−3.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:56ARIZ 4th & 2 at TCU 32, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.2%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    1.2%
    51% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:29ARIZ 4th & 7 at ARIZ 28, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TCU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7ARIZ made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q1 12:48TCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:10TCU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:16ARIZ Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:13TCU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:13TCU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:51TCU Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:53ARIZ Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    6.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    6.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 10:23TCU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 5:25TCU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 1:00ARIZ Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARIZDrive 1INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
78.0%
Arizona Penalty, Illegal Formation (Tetairoa McMillan) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 2TD
5 plays · 37 yds · 1:5978% → 78%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
78.0%
Trent Battle run for 3 yds to the ARIZ 34Similar
Q1 14:16
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+10
78.0%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jack Bech for 10 yds to the ARIZ 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
77.9%
Josh Hoover pass complete to JP Richardson for 5 yds to the ARIZ 19Similar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+15
77.8%
Trent Battle run for 15 yds to the ARIZ 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
78.3%
Trent Battle run for 4 yds for a TD (Kyle Lemmermann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 1:5522% → 22%
Q1 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
78.1%
Quali Conley run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 19Similar
Q1 12:07
2ND & 8
OWN 19
0
78.1%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Tetairoa McMillanSimilar
Q1 11:57
3RD & 8
OWN 19
+15
78.2%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 15 yds to the ARIZ 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
78.0%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Tyler PowellSimilar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-1
78.0%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jeremiah Patterson for a loss of 1 yard to the ARIZ 33Similar
Q1 10:46
3RD & 11
OWN 33
0
78.2%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Chris HunterSimilar
Q1 10:41
4TH & 11
OWN 33
0
78.2%
Michael Salgado-Medina punt for 33 yds, fair catch by JP Richardson at the TCU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 4INT
6 plays · 11 yds · 2:2078% → 78%
Q1 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
78.2%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Savion Williams for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 33Similar
Q1 10:09
2ND & 11
OWN 33
+7
78.2%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jack Bech for 7 yds to the TCU 40Similar
Q1 9:30
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+7
78.4%
Josh Hoover pass complete to DJ Rogers for 7 yds to the TCU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
78.5%
Trent Battle run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 7
50
-5
78.7%
(08:21) Shotgun Hoover,Josh pass incomplete short right to Bech,Jack thrown to ARIZ40 PENALTY TCU Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Deery,Coltin) 5 yards from TCU50 to TCU45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:13
2ND & 12
OWN 45
0
78.4%
Josh Hoover pass intercepted by Jack Luttrell at the ARIZ 35.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 2:5922% → 21%
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
78.0%
Quali Conley run for 4 yds to the ARIZ 39Similar
Q1 7:32
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+5
77.8%
Quali Conley run for 5 yds to the ARIZ 44Similar
Q1 6:57
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+2
77.7%
Quali Conley run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
77.6%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Chris HunterSimilar
Q1 6:14
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-9
77.8%
Arizona Penalty, Illegal Formation (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 5:43
3RD & 19
OWN 37
0
78.4%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Quali Conley for no gain to the ARIZ 37Similar
Q1 5:08
4TH & 19
OWN 37
+9
78.6%
Michael Salgado-Medina punt for 33 yds , JP Richardson returns for 9 yds to the TCU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 6TD
5 plays · 61 yds · 2:5079% → 83%
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
78.6%
Savion Williams run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:02
1ST & 10
50
+40
79.0%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 40 yds to the ARIZ 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
79.1%
Savion Williams run for 8 yds to the ARIZ 2Similar
Q1 2:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
79.2%
Savion Williams run for 1 yd to the ARIZ 1Similar
Q1 2:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
82.5%
Savion Williams run for 1 yd for a TD (Kyle Lemmermann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 7TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:4819% → 23%
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
81.1%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Jeremiah PattersonSimilar
Q1 1:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
81.2%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Chris Hunter for 6 yds to the ARIZ 31Similar
Q1 1:17
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+51
81.3%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Sam Olson for 51 yds to the TCU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
80.2%
Quali Conley run for 1 yd to the TCU 17Similar
Q1 0:22
2ND & 9
OPP 17
0
80.3%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Tetairoa McMillanSimilar
Q1 0:16
3RD & 9
OPP 17
+17
76.8%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Chris Hunter for 17 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:4678% → 78%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
78.2%
Cam Cook run for no gain to the TCU 25Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
78.1%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Eric McAlisterSimilar
Q2 14:47
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+8
77.7%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jack Bech for 8 yds to the TCU 33Similar
Q2 14:14
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
77.6%
Ethan Craw punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Patterson at the ARIZ 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 9FG
14 plays · 46 yds · 6:0022% → 25%
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
77.8%
Quali Conley run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 21Similar
Q2 13:38
2ND & 8
OWN 21
0
77.9%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Tetairoa McMillanSimilar
Q2 13:28
3RD & 8
OWN 21
+8
78.3%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 8 yds to the ARIZ 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
77.6%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Chris Hunter for 8 yds to the ARIZ 37Similar
Q2 12:16
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+16
76.8%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jeremiah Patterson for 16 yds to the TCU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
76.4%
Kedrick Reescano run for 4 yds to the TCU 43Similar
Q2 10:59
2ND & 6
OPP 43
0
76.3%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Tetairoa McMillanSimilar
Q2 10:52
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+6
76.5%
Quali Conley run for 6 yds to the TCU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-5
76.3%
PENALTY ARIZ False Start (Capra,Joey) 5 yards from TCU37 to TCU42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:54
1ST & 15
OPP 42
+4
77.1%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Quali Conley for 4 yds to the TCU 38Similar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 11
OPP 38
+2
76.5%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jeremiah Patterson for 2 yds to the TCU 36Similar
Q2 8:50
3RD & 9
OPP 36
+1
77.4%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 1 yd to the TCU 35Similar
Q2 8:08
4TH & 8
OPP 35
+53
75.5%
Tyler Loop 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:4776% → 74%
Q2 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
75.6%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Carson Bruno for 3 yds to the TCU 22Similar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
75.3%
TCU Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 7:08
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
74.6%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Jack BechSimilar
Q2 7:00
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
74.2%
Ethan Craw punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 11FG
12 plays · 39 yds · 4:5625% → 28%
Q2 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
75.0%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 11 yds to the ARIZ 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
73.8%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:12
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+9
74.1%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 9 yds to the TCU 44Similar
Q2 5:28
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+7
73.5%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Chris Hunter for 7 yds to the TCU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-10
73.3%
(04:57) Shotgun Reescano,Kedrick rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TCU36 (Hodges,Johnny) PENALTY ARIZ Holding (Doost,Alexander) 10 yards from TCU37 to TCU47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:24
1ST & 20
OPP 47
0
73.9%
Noah Fifita run for no gain to the TCU 47Similar
Q2 3:48
2ND & 20
OPP 47
+32
74.1%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 32 yds to the TCU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
72.0%
Quali Conley run for no gain to the TCU 15Similar
Q2 2:47
2ND & 10
OPP 15
-11
71.6%
Noah Fifita sacked by NaNa Osafo-Mensah for a loss of 11 yards to the TCU 26Similar
Q2 2:02
3RD & 21
OPP 26
+1
74.3%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jeremiah Patterson for 1 yd to the TCU 25Similar
Q2 1:55
4TH & 20
OPP 25
+43
72.1%
Tyler Loop 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 12TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 1:3373% → 82%
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
72.6%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Eric McAlisterSimilar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
72.3%
Josh Hoover pass complete to JP Richardson for 8 yds to the TCU 33Similar
Q2 1:29
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
72.5%
Josh Hoover run for 3 yds to the TCU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
73.3%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Jack BechSimilar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+24
72.8%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 24 yds to the ARIZ 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-8
74.9%
Josh Hoover sacked by Julian Savaiinaea for a loss of 8 yards to the ARIZ 48Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 18
OPP 48
0
73.4%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Blake NowellSimilar
Q2 0:52
3RD & 18
OPP 48
+19
72.0%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Savion Williams for 19 yds to the ARIZ 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
75.4%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Trent Battle for no gain to the ARIZ 29Similar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-15
75.3%
TCU Penalty, Intentional Grounding (-15 Yards) to the ARIZ 44Similar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 25
OPP 44
+24
72.5%
Josh Hoover pass complete to JP Richardson for 24 yds to the ARIZ 20Similar
Q2 0:13
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+20
82.1%
Savion Williams run for 20 yds for a TD (Kyle Lemmermann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
81.5%
N. Fifita takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 14TD
9 plays · 76 yds · 4:2982% → 90%
Q3 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
82.0%
Savion Williams run for 7 yds to the TCU 31Similar
Q3 14:26
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+6
82.6%
Josh Hoover run for 6 yds to the TCU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
83.9%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Savion Williams for 2 yds to the ARIZ 37Similar
Q3 12:36
2ND & 12
OPP 37
+9
83.4%
Josh Hoover pass complete to JP Richardson for 9 yds to the ARIZ 28Similar
Q3 12:15
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+2
83.0%
Trent Battle run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 26Similar
Q3 11:31
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+2
82.3%
Savion Williams run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+23
84.1%
Josh Hoover pass complete to JP Richardson for 23 yds to the ARIZ 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
90.1%
Trent Battle run for 1 yd for a TD (Kyle Lemmermann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2512% → 11%
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
88.2%
Quali Conley run for 5 yds to the ARIZ 30Similar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
87.8%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jeremiah Patterson for 2 yds to the ARIZ 32Similar
Q3 8:54
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
88.1%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Sam OlsonSimilar
Q3 8:42
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+33
88.7%
Michael Salgado-Medina punt for 35 yds , JP Richardson returns for 33 yds to the ARIZ 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 16TD
2 plays · 34 yds · 0:4191% → 97%
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-4
91.2%
Josh Hoover sacked by Tre Smith for a loss of 4 yards to the ARIZ 38Similar
Q3 7:51
2ND & 14
OPP 38
+38
96.5%
Josh Hoover pass complete to JP Richardson for 38 yds for a TD (Kyle Lemmermann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 17TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 7:524% → 9%
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
96.1%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Chris Hunter for 1 yd to the ARIZ 26Similar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
96.2%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 4 yds to the ARIZ 30Similar
Q3 6:38
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+27
96.6%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 27 yds to the TCU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+17
96.6%
Quali Conley run for 17 yds to the TCU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
96.3%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Sam OlsonSimilar
Q3 5:19
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+5
96.5%
Kedrick Reescano run for 5 yds to the TCU 21Similar
Q3 4:41
3RD & 5
OPP 21
+2
96.8%
Kedrick Reescano run for 2 yds to the TCU 19Similar
Q3 4:01
4TH & 3
OPP 19
+5
96.9%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Chris Hunter for 5 yds to the TCU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
96.7%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Sam Olson for 7 yds to the TCU 7Similar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 3
OPP 7
-2
97.0%
Quali Conley run for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 9Similar
Q3 2:12
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+6
97.5%
Noah Fifita run for 6 yds to the TCU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
97.7%
Quali Conley run for 1 yd to the TCU 2Similar
Q3 0:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
98.0%
Quali Conley run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 3Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
97.9%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Chris Hunter for no gain to the TCU 3Similar
Q4 14:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
90.8%
Chris Hunter 3 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Noah Fifita Pass to Jeremiah Patterson for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 18TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:2494% → 99%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
94.1%
Cam Cook run for 2 yds to the TCU 27Similar
Q4 14:03
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+23
94.3%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 23 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:39
1ST & 10
50
+7
94.7%
Cam Cook run for 7 yds to the ARIZ 43Similar
Q4 13:18
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+4
94.8%
Cam Cook run for 4 yds to the ARIZ 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
94.9%
Josh Hoover pass incomplete to Eric McAlisterSimilar
Q4 12:28
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+30
95.1%
Savion Williams run for 30 yds to the ARIZ 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
95.3%
Cam Cook run for 1 yd to the ARIZ 8Similar
Q4 11:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
95.5%
Ken Seals run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 6Similar
Q4 10:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
98.8%
Cam Cook run for 6 yds for a TD (Kyle Lemmermann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 19DOWNS
10 plays · 43 yds · 2:171% → 1%
Q4 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
98.9%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Quali Conley for 15 yds to the ARIZ 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
98.8%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 8 yds to the ARIZ 48Similar
Q4 9:23
2ND & 2
OWN 48
-5
98.7%
PENALTY ARIZ False Start (Capra,Joey) 5 yards from ARIZ48 to ARIZ43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:06
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
98.8%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Chris HunterSimilar
Q4 8:50
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+17
98.9%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Devin Hyatt for 17 yds to the TCU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
98.9%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Devin HyattSimilar
Q4 8:33
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
98.9%
Noah Fifita pass incomplete to Chris HunterSimilar
Q4 8:24
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+8
98.9%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jeremiah Patterson for 8 yds to the TCU 32Similar
Q4 7:56
4TH & 2
OPP 32
0
98.9%
Noah Fifita run for no gain to the TCU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 20TD
7 plays · 68 yds · 2:2599% → 100%
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
98.9%
Jeremy Payne run for 2 yds to the TCU 34Similar
Q4 7:06
2ND & 8
OWN 34
0
99.0%
Ken Seals pass incomplete to Drake DabneySimilar
Q4 7:06
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+5
99.3%
PENALTY ARIZ Offside (Darton,Kevon) 5 yards from TCU34 to TCU39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:55
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+36
99.4%
Ken Seals pass complete to DJ Rogers for 36 yds to the ARIZ 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
99.4%
Jeremy Payne run for a loss of 5 yards to the ARIZ 30Similar
Q4 5:25
2ND & 15
OPP 30
+30
99.9%
Jeremy Payne run for 30 yds for a TD (Kyle Lemmermann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:440% → 0%
Q4 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.9%
Cole Tannenbaum pass complete to Devin Hyatt for 3 yds to the ARIZ 28Similar
Q4 4:41
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Cole Tannenbaum pass incomplete to Rex HaynesSimilar
Q4 4:35
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Cole Tannenbaum pass incomplete to Rex HaynesSimilar
Q4 4:29
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Michael Salgado-Medina punt for 42 yds, fair catch by JP Richardson at the TCU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 22FUMBLE RETURN TD
9 plays · 40 yds · 3:19100% → 100%
Q4 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
99.9%
Dominique Johnson run for 1 yd to the TCU 31Similar
Q4 3:36
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+7
99.9%
Dominique Johnson run for 7 yds to the TCU 38Similar
Q4 3:15
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+2
99.9%
Dominique Johnson run for 2 yds to the TCU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+30
99.9%
Ken Seals pass complete to Parker Clark for 15 yds to the ARIZ 45 for a 1ST down Arizona Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Emmanuel Karnley) to the ARIZ 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
100.0%
Trey Sanders run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARIZ 31Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 11
OPP 31
+1
100.0%
Trey Sanders run for 1 yd to the ARIZ 30Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+70
99.8%
Sterling Lane II 70 Yd Fumble Return (Tyler Loop Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 23END OF GAME
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:51100% → 100%
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
99.8%
K. Seals takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-1
99.8%
K. Seals takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:13
Savion Williams run for 20 yds for a TD (Kyle Lemmermann KICK)
+9.2
TD · Q4 14:53
Chris Hunter 3 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Noah Fifita Pass to Jeremiah Patterson for Two-Point Conversion)
-7.1
TD · Q3 10:13
Trent Battle run for 1 yd for a TD (Kyle Lemmermann KICK)
+6.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com