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CIN

Cincinnati 15 at Kansas State 41

KSU
2024 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2024 · Bill Snyder Family Stadium
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Win probability · KSU
modelKSU aheadCIN aheadconfidence bandkey playKSU scoreCIN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:55 · Brady Lichtenberg sacked by Tobi Osunsanmi for a loss of 5 yards to the KSU 31
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 149Home team on offense+34.8Score differential+26.9Pregame prior+0.6Garbage-time factor+10.5Blowout margin+16.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.6
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 13:37: Chris Tennant 32 yd FG GOOD — KSU win probability +4.8 pts (now 78%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:01: DJ Giddens run for 32 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK) — KSU win probability +7.3 pts (now 90%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 4:17: Nathan Hawks 42 yd FG GOOD — CIN win probability +6.1 pts (now 16%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:08: Avery Johnson pass complete to Tre Spivey for 6 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK) — KSU win probability +5.9 pts (now 94%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:54: Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Tony Johnson for 9 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — CIN win probability +4.2 pts (now 8%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
KSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 8CIN made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 13:41CIN 4th & 7 at CIN 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.7%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:21CIN 4th & 14 at CIN 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.1%−0.3
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:37KSU 4th & 4 at CIN 10, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 72.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.3%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.2%−0.1
    88% to make
    Punt
    70.0%−2.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:46CIN 4th & 1 at KSU 45, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    25.9%−1.7
    25% to make
    Punt
    26.5%−1.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:37KSU 4th & 12 at CIN 14, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.0%−1.2
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.2%
    84% to make
    Punt
    68.5%−4.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:07CIN 4th & 8 at KSU 33, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.8%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    20.8%−<0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    20.3%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:17CIN 4th & 8 at KSU 23, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.2%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.6%
    70% to make
    Punt
    5.6%−4.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:58KSU 4th & 9 at CIN 44, up 17
    Close callPunted · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.2%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    87.0%−0.3
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    87.1%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:24KSU 4th & 10 at KSU 24, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.8%−1.0
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:49CIN 4th & 4 at KSU 34, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    5.4%−0.6
    47% to make
    Punt
    5.0%−1.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:43KSU 4th & 3 at KSU 41, up 24
    Close callPunted · 94.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.0%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:43KSU 4th & 13 at CIN 35, up 18
    Close callWent for it · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.0%−0.4
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    95.4%
    45% to make
    Punt
    95.0%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:22CIN 4th & 7 at midfield, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:57KSU 4th & 2 at CIN 8, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.6%
    54% to convert
    Field goal
    99.4%−0.1
    90% to make
    Punt
    98.8%−0.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:22KSU 4th & 1 at KSU 27, up 26
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:55CIN 4th & 4 at KSU 26, down 26
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%
    64% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5CIN made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 11:25KSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:01KSU Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:08KSU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:54CIN Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    6.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    6.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:52KSU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 7:57KSU Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:09CIN Touchdown, down 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    0.3%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    0.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CINDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1930% → 31%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.7%
Corey Kiner run for no gain to the CIN 25Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
69.6%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Jamoi Mayes for 3 yds to the CIN 28Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
69.5%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:41
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
69.5%
Mason Fletcher punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 2TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 2:0770% → 71%
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+33
69.5%
Avery Johnson run for 33 yds to the CIN 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
69.7%
DJ Giddens run for 4 yds to the CIN 28Similar
Q1 12:32
2ND & 6
OPP 28
-5
69.7%
(12:32) QB Keeper JOHNSON, Avery rush to the left for a gain of 19 yards to the CIN9, out of bounds, clock 12:26. PENALTY Before the snap, KSTATE Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the CIN28 to the CIN33. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 12:07
2ND & 11
OPP 33
0
69.7%
Avery Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 11
OPP 33
+12
69.5%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Tre Spivey for 12 yds to the CIN 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
70.7%
Avery Johnson run for 21 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 3:0430% → 29%
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
70.2%
Corey Kiner run for a loss of 1 yard to the CIN 24Similar
Q1 10:52
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
70.3%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:46
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+13
70.5%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Corey Kiner for 13 yds to the CIN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-3
70.2%
Corey Kiner run for a loss of 3 yards to the CIN 34Similar
Q1 9:37
2ND & 13
OWN 34
-3
70.5%
Evan Pryor run for a loss of 3 yards to the CIN 31Similar
Q1 8:58
3RD & 16
OWN 31
+2
70.9%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Tony Johnson for 2 yds to the CIN 33Similar
Q1 8:21
4TH & 14
OWN 33
0
71.1%
Mason Fletcher punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 4FG
9 plays · 56 yds · 4:3571% → 73%
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
71.0%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Dante Cephas for 9 yds to the KSU 43Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+15
71.5%
(07:48) GIDDENS, DJ rush to the right for no gain to the KSTATE43 (WILSON, Kam), clock 07:43. PENALTY CIN Face mask on WILSON, Kam enforced 15 yards from the KSTATE43 to the CIN42 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+14
71.6%
DJ Giddens run for 14 yds to the CIN 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
71.9%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Dante Cephas for 4 yds to the CIN 24Similar
Q1 6:13
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+8
72.0%
DJ Giddens run for 8 yds to the CIN 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
72.1%
DJ Giddens run for 4 yds to the CIN 12Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+5
72.3%
Avery Johnson run for 5 yds to the CIN 7Similar
Q1 4:20
3RD & 1
OPP 7
-3
72.2%
Avery Johnson run for a loss of 3 yards to the CIN 10Similar
Q1 3:37
4TH & 4
OPP 10
+28
72.5%
Chris Tennant 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 5DOWNS
5 plays · 30 yds · 1:5128% → 28%
Q1 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
71.9%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 21 yds to the CIN 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
71.3%
Brendan Sorsby run for 5 yds to the KSU 49Similar
Q1 2:29
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+4
71.3%
Evan Pryor run for 4 yds to the KSU 45Similar
Q1 1:51
3RD & 1
OPP 45
0
71.3%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:46
4TH & 1
OPP 45
0
72.0%
Brendan Sorsby run for no gain to the KSU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 6FG
7 plays · 41 yds · 3:0073% → 78%
Q1 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
73.3%
DJ Giddens run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 0:55
2ND & 5
50
+20
73.5%
DJ Giddens run for 20 yds to the CIN 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+18
73.8%
Avery Johnson pass complete to DJ Giddens for 18 yds to the CIN 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-4
73.9%
Avery Johnson run for a loss of 4 yards to the CIN 16Similar
Q2 14:27
2ND & 14
OPP 16
+2
73.9%
DJ Giddens run for 2 yds to the CIN 14Similar
Q2 13:47
3RD & 12
OPP 14
0
73.6%
Avery Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:37
4TH & 12
OPP 14
+32
78.4%
Chris Tennant 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 7DOWNS
12 plays · 42 yds · 4:2923% → 20%
Q2 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
76.6%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:31
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
76.7%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 11 yds to the CIN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+17
76.6%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Tony Johnson for 17 yds to the KSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
76.2%
(12:14) SORSBY, Brendan pass short to the left complete for 12 yards to MAYES, Jamoi caught at the KSTATE42 and advanced to the KSTATE35 (SIGLE, Marques), clock 12:07. PENALTY CIN Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on GERHARDT, Gavin enforced 5 yards from the KSTATE47 to the CIN48 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:41
1ST & 15
OWN 48
0
78.4%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 15
OWN 48
+5
78.6%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Corey Kiner for 5 yds to the KSU 47Similar
Q2 10:48
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+12
78.7%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Tony Johnson for 12 yds to the KSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
77.4%
Corey Kiner run for 4 yds to the KSU 31Similar
Q2 9:57
2ND & 6
OPP 31
0
77.6%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:50
3RD & 6
OPP 31
-2
78.5%
Brendan Sorsby sacked by Chiddi Obiazor and Brendan Mott for a loss of 2 yards to the KSU 33Similar
Q2 9:07
4TH & 8
OPP 33
0
79.6%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 8TD
4 plays · 67 yds · 2:0282% → 90%
Q2 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
81.8%
DJ Giddens run for no gain to the KSU 33Similar
Q2 8:28
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+15
82.0%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jayce Brown for 15 yds to the KSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+20
82.4%
Avery Johnson pass complete to DJ Giddens for 20 yds to the CIN 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
89.6%
DJ Giddens run for 32 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 9FG
7 plays · 52 yds · 2:4111% → 16%
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
89.2%
Corey Kiner run for 26 yds to the KSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
88.6%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Tony Johnson for no gain to the KSU 49Similar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+24
89.3%
Corey Kiner run for 24 yds to the KSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
88.6%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:05
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+2
88.9%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Tony Johnson for 2 yds to the KSU 23Similar
Q2 4:25
3RD & 8
OPP 23
0
89.8%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:17
4TH & 8
OPP 23
+42
83.6%
Nathan Hawks 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 10PUNT
10 plays · 31 yds · 3:1787% → 88%
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
87.3%
Joe Jackson run for 3 yds to the KSU 28Similar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-7
87.5%
Avery Johnson run for 3 yds to the KSU 31 Kansas State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the KSU 21Similar
Q2 3:26
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+9
87.5%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Dante Cephas for 9 yds to the KSU 30Similar
Q2 2:53
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+7
87.4%
Avery Johnson run for 7 yds to the KSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+18
88.1%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Tre Spivey for 18 yds to the CIN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-10
88.9%
(02:00) JACKSON, Joe rush to the right for a gain of 30 yards to the CIN15 (PEEK JR., Antwan), out of bounds, clock 01:53. PENALTY KSTATE Holding on HECHT, Sam enforced 10 yards from the CIN45 to the KSTATE45 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 20
OWN 45
+11
88.8%
Joe Jackson run for 11 yds to the CIN 44Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 9
OPP 44
0
89.1%
Avery Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:11
3RD & 9
OPP 44
0
88.9%
Avery Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:58
4TH & 9
OPP 44
0
88.4%
Simon McClannan punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Jamoi Mayes at the CIN 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 11INT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:2814% → 14%
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+17
86.1%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Jamoi Mayes for 17 yds to the CIN 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
85.7%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+2
86.0%
Corey Kiner run for 2 yds to the CIN 36Similar
Q2 0:33
3RD & 8
OWN 36
-10
86.2%
Cincinnati Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the CIN 26Similar
Q2 0:26
3RD & 18
OWN 26
-16
86.5%
Brendan Sorsby pass intercepted Brendan Mott return for 16 yds to the CIN 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 12TD
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:1089% → 94%
Q2 0:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
88.5%
Avery Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
94.4%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Tre Spivey for 6 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · 2 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
92.8%
Corey Kiner run for 2 yds to the CIN 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:2893% → 93%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
93.4%
Avery Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:38
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+2
93.4%
DJ Giddens run for 2 yds to the KSU 26Similar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 8
OWN 26
-2
93.6%
Avery Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the KSU 24Similar
Q3 13:24
4TH & 10
OWN 24
0
93.2%
Simon McClannan punt for 28 yds, downed at the CIN 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 15DOWNS
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:237% → 6%
Q3 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
93.4%
Corey Kiner run for 12 yds to the KSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
93.5%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:27
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+6
93.6%
Corey Kiner run for 6 yds to the KSU 34Similar
Q3 11:53
3RD & 4
OPP 34
0
93.6%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:49
4TH & 4
OPP 34
0
94.0%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:5895% → 95%
Q3 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
94.7%
DJ Giddens run for 6 yds to the KSU 40Similar
Q3 11:17
2ND & 4
OWN 40
0
94.9%
Avery Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+1
94.9%
Avery Johnson pass complete to DJ Giddens for 1 yd to the KSU 41Similar
Q3 10:43
4TH & 3
OWN 41
0
94.7%
Simon McClannan punt for 59 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 17TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 5:395% → 8%
Q3 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
95.1%
Evan Pryor run for 11 yds to the CIN 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
95.1%
Evan Pryor run for 5 yds to the CIN 36Similar
Q3 9:11
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+2
95.3%
Evan Pryor run for 2 yds to the CIN 38Similar
Q3 8:38
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+4
95.5%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Tony Johnson for 4 yds to the CIN 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
95.6%
Corey Kiner run for 1 yd to the CIN 43Similar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+14
95.8%
Corey Kiner run for 14 yds to the KSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+18
95.8%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 18 yds to the KSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
95.6%
Brendan Sorsby run for 2 yds to the KSU 23Similar
Q3 5:57
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+15
95.7%
Brendan Sorsby run for 15 yds to the KSU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
95.9%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Jamoi Mayes for a loss of 1 yard to the KSU 9Similar
Q3 4:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
91.7%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Tony Johnson for 9 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 18TD
11 plays · 73 yds · 4:5694% → 99%
Q3 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
94.4%
Avery Johnson run for 5 yds to the KSU 32Similar
Q3 4:14
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+6
94.5%
DJ Giddens run for 6 yds to the KSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+19
95.0%
DJ Giddens run for 19 yds to the CIN 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
95.1%
Avery Johnson run for 7 yds to the CIN 36Similar
Q3 2:16
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+4
95.3%
Joe Jackson run for 4 yds to the CIN 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
95.4%
Avery Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:33
2ND & 10
OPP 32
-3
95.4%
Joe Jackson run for a loss of 3 yards to the CIN 35Similar
Q3 0:49
3RD & 13
OPP 35
0
95.7%
Avery Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:43
4TH & 13
OPP 35
+14
95.1%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Tre Spivey for 14 yds Tre Spivey fumbled, recovered by KSU for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
96.0%
DJ Giddens run for 4 yds to the CIN 17Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+17
99.3%
DJ Giddens run for 17 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 19DOWNS
6 plays · 25 yds · 2:281% → 1%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
98.9%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Sterling Berkhalter for 9 yds to the CIN 34Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+13
98.9%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Joe Royer for 13 yds to the CIN 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-4
99.0%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Evan Pryor for a loss of 4 yards to the CIN 43Similar
Q4 13:06
2ND & 14
OWN 43
+7
99.0%
Evan Pryor run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 12:26
3RD & 7
50
0
99.1%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:22
4TH & 7
50
0
99.1%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 20TD
9 plays · 50 yds · 4:2099% → 100%
Q4 12:17
1ST & 10
50
+5
99.4%
Joe Jackson run for 5 yds to the CIN 45Similar
Q4 11:48
2ND & 5
OPP 45
0
99.5%
Avery Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:44
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+16
99.5%
Joe Jackson run for 16 yds to the CIN 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+13
99.5%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Tre Spivey for 13 yds to the CIN 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
99.5%
Joe Jackson run for 4 yds to the CIN 12Similar
Q4 9:34
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+3
99.6%
Joe Jackson run for 3 yds to the CIN 9Similar
Q4 8:52
3RD & 3
OPP 9
+1
99.6%
Joe Jackson run for 1 yd to the CIN 8Similar
Q4 7:57
4TH & 2
OPP 8
+8
99.9%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Will Swanson for 8 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 21TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:480% → 0%
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
99.9%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 10 yds to the CIN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
99.9%
Brendan Sorsby sacked by Ryan Davis and Chiddi Obiazor for a loss of 1 yard to the CIN 34Similar
Q4 6:49
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+12
99.9%
Corey Kiner run for 12 yds to the CIN 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
99.9%
SORSBY, Brendan pass to the left incomplete intended for BERKHALTER, Sterling thrown to the CIN45, clock 06:04. PENALTY KSTATE Roughing the Passer on ILALIO, Damian enforced 15 yards from the CIN46 to the KSTATE39 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+33
99.9%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Jamoi Mayes for 33 yds to the KSU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
99.9%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.8%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Tony Johnson for 6 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:46100% → 100%
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
99.8%
Joe Jackson run for 3 yds to the KSU 21Similar
Q4 4:18
2ND & 7
OWN 21
-1
99.8%
DeVon Rice run for a loss of 1 yard to the KSU 20Similar
Q4 4:09
3RD & 8
OWN 20
+7
99.9%
Ta'Quan Roberson run for 7 yds to the KSU 27Similar
Q4 3:22
4TH & 1
OWN 27
0
99.9%
Simon McClannan punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jamoi Mayes at the CIN 29Similar
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+10
99.9%
(03:18) LICHTENBERG, Brady sacked for a loss of 3 yards at the CIN26 (DAVIS, Ryan;ALLEN, Jordan), clock 03:11. PENALTY KSTATE Holding on RICH, Zashon enforced 10 yards from the CIN29 to the CIN39 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 23DOWNS
6 plays · 40 yds · 1:060% → 0%
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+29
99.9%
Corey Kiner run for 29 yds to the KSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-6
99.9%
Brady Lichtenberg sacked by Ryan Davis for a loss of 6 yards to the KSU 38Similar
Q4 2:12
2ND & 16
OPP 38
+12
99.9%
Corey Kiner run for 12 yds to the KSU 26Similar
Q4 1:55
4TH & 4
OPP 26
-5
99.9%
Brady Lichtenberg sacked by Tobi Osunsanmi for a loss of 5 yards to the KSU 31Similar
Q4 1:54
3RD & 4
OPP 26
0
99.9%
Brady Lichtenberg pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 24END OF GAME
3 plays · 13 yds · 1:33100% → 100%
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
99.9%
Evan Cantu run for 3 yds to the KSU 34Similar
Q4 0:59
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+5
99.9%
Evan Cantu run for 5 yds to the KSU 39Similar
Q4 0:17
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+5
99.9%
Evan Cantu run for 5 yds to the KSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 7:01
DJ Giddens run for 32 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)
+7.3
FG · Q2 4:17
Nathan Hawks 42 yd FG GOOD
-6.1
TD · Q2 0:08
Avery Johnson pass complete to Tre Spivey for 6 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)
+5.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com