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Win probability · KU
modelKU aheadCOLO aheadconfidence bandkey playKU scoreCOLO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:51 · Devin Neal run for 4 yds to the COLO 16 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 9:02: Devin Neal run for 9 yds for a TD (Tabor Allen KICK) — KU win probability +14.6 pts (now 75%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 7:18: Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 51 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK) — COLO win probability +10.6 pts (now 40%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:51: Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Drelon Miller for 19 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK) — COLO win probability +13.8 pts (now 43%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:59: Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 26 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK) — COLO win probability +11.9 pts (now 49%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:18: Devin Neal run for 1 yd for a TD (Tabor Allen KICK) — KU win probability +13.0 pts (now 76%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
KU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5COLO made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
- Q1 10:25COLO 4th & 4 at COLO 31, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.5% before the snapGo for it50.5%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call50.6%average punt
- Q1 2:39KU 4th & 6 at COLO 6, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.4% before the snapGo for it54.1%−0.131% to convertField goalTheir call54.2%91% to makePunt51.3%−2.9average punt
- Q2 13:46COLO 4th & 3 at KU 41, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call43.3%52% to convertField goal41.9%−1.332% to makePunt42.3%−1.0average punt
- Q2 3:47KU 4th & 5 at COLO 5, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.1% before the snapGo for it64.4%−0.133% to convertField goalTheir call64.4%92% to makePunt58.0%−6.5average punt
- Q2 0:07KU 4th & 7 at COLO 7, up 6Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.8% before the snapGo for it62.5%−0.828% to convertField goalTheir call63.3%91% to makePunt58.6%−4.7average punt
- Q3 4:54COLO 4th & 6 at COLO 28, down 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.2% before the snapGo for it21.7%−1.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.8%average punt
- Q4 13:29KU 4th & 1 at COLO 10, up 9Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call81.7%71% to convertField goal78.8%−2.988% to makePunt70.6%−11.1average punt
- Q4 6:22COLO 4th & 22 at KU 29, down 16Close callWent for it · 4.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.7%−0.78% to convertField goal4.4%58% to makePunt3.1%−1.3average punt
- Q4 1:51KU 4th & 1 at COLO 20, up 16Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.2%71% to convertField goal97.9%−0.375% to makePunt96.9%−1.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4COLO made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 11:44KU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call48.5%97% to makeGo for two48.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:02KU Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call69.7%97% to makeGo for two69.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:18COLO Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call35.7%97% to makeGo for two35.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:51COLO Touchdown, down 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call37.5%97% to makeGo for two37.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:59COLO Touchdown, down 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call43.4%97% to makeGo for two43.3%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 7:18KU Touchdown, up 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call74.3%97% to makeGo for two74.1%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 11:47KU Touchdown, up 15 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call93.3%−0.197% to makeGo for two93.4%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartKUDrive 1TD7 plays · 73 yds · 3:0546% → 48%
COLODrive 2PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1052% → 51%
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
48.1%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for a loss of 1 yard to the COLO 24Similar
Q1 11:09
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+7
48.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 7 yds to the COLO 31Similar
Q1 10:25
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+18
48.9%
Mark Vassett punt for 54 yds , Luke Grimm returns for 18 yds to the KU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 3FG13 plays · 61 yds · 7:3849% → 55%
COLODrive 4DOWNS10 plays · 47 yds · 3:4046% → 43%
Q1 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
54.4%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Isaiah Augustave for 3 yds to the COLO 17Similar
Q1 1:59
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+8
54.7%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 8 yds to the COLO 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
55.0%
(01:33) No Huddle-Shotgun Miller,Drelon rush right for 0 yards to the CU25 (Todd,Jalen) PENALTY KU Horse Collar Tackle (Todd,Jalen) 15 yards from CU25 to CU40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
54.5%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Isaiah Augustave for 6 yds to the COLO 46Similar
Q2 14:42
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+3
54.5%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Sav'ell Smalls for 3 yds to the KU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 5TD8 plays · 61 yds · 4:3458% → 75%
Q2 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
57.8%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Jared Casey for 12 yds to the COLO 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
58.7%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Trevor Wilson for 5 yds to the COLO 44Similar
Q2 9:35
3RD & 9
OPP 32
+23
60.6%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Trevor Kardell for 23 yds to the COLO 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 6TD5 plays · 75 yds · 1:3628% → 40%
KUDrive 7FG10 plays · 69 yds · 3:2162% → 74%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 8TD7 plays · 75 yds · 1:3728% → 43%
Q2 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
72.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 15 yds to the COLO 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
72.0%
(03:13) No Huddle-Shotgun Sanders,Shedeur pass incomplete deep left to Sheppard,Will thrown to KU35 PENALTY CU Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Seaton,Jordan) 5 yards from CU40 to CU35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:44
1ST & 15
OWN 35
+16
73.4%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Drelon Miller for 16 yds to the KU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+25
71.2%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 25 yds to the KU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
57.4%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Drelon Miller for 19 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 9FG16 plays · 73 yds · 1:3164% → 66%
COLODrive 10END OF HALF2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 11TD7 plays · 51 yds · 2:4536% → 49%
Q3 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
64.5%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Dallan Hayden for 15 yds to the KU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
63.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for a loss of 1 yard to the KU 26Similar
Q3 11:59
2ND & 11
OPP 26
+26
51.4%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 26 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 12TD14 plays · 80 yds · 4:3057% → 76%
Q3 11:27
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+43
56.3%
Devin Neal run for 28 yds to the COLO 47 for a 1ST down Colorado Penalty, (15 Yards) to the COLO 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
60.6%
PENALTY KU False Start (Noa,Tevita) 5 yards from CU38 to CU43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
62.3%
(09:31) Shotgun Daniels,Jalon pass incomplete short middle to Skinner,Quentin thrown to CU09 PENALTY CU Offside (Wester,Jaylen) 5 yards from CU23 to CU18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
62.7%
(08:37) PENALTY CU Offside (Sanders,Shilo) 5 yards from CU09 to CU04. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 13PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 2:0926% → 21%
Q3 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
74.5%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Drelon Miller for a loss of 1 yard to the COLO 23Similar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 11
OWN 23
+10
75.2%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Will Sheppard for 10 yds to the COLO 33Similar
Q3 4:54
4TH & 6
OWN 28
+6
78.6%
Mark Vassett punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KU 30 , Luke Grimm returns for 6 yds to the KU 34 Colorado Penalty, (-5 Yards) to the KU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 14TD15 plays · 70 yds · 8:0778% → 95%
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
77.6%
PENALTY KU False Start (Clements,Calvin) 5 yards from KU30 to KU25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:44
1ST & 15
OWN 25
+9
77.3%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Jared Casey for 9 yds to the KU 34Similar
Q3 3:22
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+7
78.4%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Luke Grimm for 7 yds to the KU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
80.8%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Trevor Kardell for 15 yds to the COLO 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:53
3RD & 2
OPP 34
+15
81.5%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Devin Neal for 15 yds to the COLO 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 15DOWNS15 plays · 46 yds · 5:178% → 5%
Q4 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
92.2%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 2 yds to the COLO 27Similar
Q4 11:02
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
92.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Drelon Miller for 5 yds to the COLO 32Similar
Q4 10:28
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+8
93.2%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 8 yds to the COLO 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
93.1%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 3 yds to the COLO 43Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+27
93.5%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 27 yds to the KU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:12
3RD & 12
OPP 32
+15
93.7%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Micah Welch for 15 yds to the KU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 7
OPP 14
-10
93.2%
(07:12) No Huddle-Shotgun Sanders,Shedeur rush middle for 4 yards gain to the KU10 (Jobe,Bai) PENALTY CU Holding (Seaton,Jordan) 10 yards from KU14 to KU24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:32
4TH & 17
OPP 24
-5
95.1%
PENALTY CU False Start (Seaton,Jordan) 5 yards from KU24 to KU29. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 16END OF GAME14 plays · 53 yds · 6:1796% → 99%
Q4 5:31
2ND & 8
OWN 31
-5
96.8%
(05:37) Shotgun Daniels,Jalon rush middle for 2 yards loss to the KU29 (Barnes Jr.,Anquin) PENALTY KU Illegal Shift 5 yards from KU31 to KU26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:31
2ND & 13
OWN 26
+15
96.7%
PENALTY CU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (McKinney,D.J.) 15 yards from KU26 to KU41, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 9:02
Devin Neal run for 9 yds for a TD (Tabor Allen KICK)
+14.6
TD · Q2 1:51
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Drelon Miller for 19 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)
-13.8
TD · Q3 7:18
Devin Neal run for 1 yd for a TD (Tabor Allen KICK)
+13