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BAY

Baylor 20 at Houston 10

HOU
2024 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2024 · TDECU Stadium
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Win probability · HOU
modelHOU aheadBAY aheadconfidence bandkey playHOU scoreBAY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:37 · Palmer Williams punt for 39 yds, downed at the HOU 4
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.5+18.80−18.8−37.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 124Home team on offense−20.1Pregame prior−2.0Garbage-time factor−9.3Score differential−4.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−5.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:32: Jeremiah Wilson 41 Yd Interception Return (Jack Martin Kick) — HOU win probability +5.4 pts (now 39%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:50: Ashtyn Hawkins 23 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Isaiah Hankins Kick) — BAY win probability +6.2 pts (now 68%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 14:52: Jack Martin 24 yd FG GOOD — HOU win probability +5.9 pts (now 30%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 14:44: Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete — BAY win probability +5.5 pts (now 76%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 6:20: Dawson Pendergrass run for 3 yds to the HOU 36 — BAY win probability +7.5 pts (now 85%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HOU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7BAY made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 11:31BAY 4th & 3 at HOU 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.8%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    64.7%−0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    64.7%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:20HOU 4th & 14 at HOU 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.3%−0.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:32BAY 4th & 15 at HOU 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.6%−0.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    65.8%−0.3
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    66.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:25HOU 4th & 4 at HOU 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.7%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:08HOU 4th & 13 at HOU 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%−1.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:00BAY 4th & 1 at BAY 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    68.5%−1.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:00BAY 4th & 27 at HOU 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.7%−2.9
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.5%
    62% to make
    Punt
    64.0%−5.6
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:11HOU 4th & 5 at BAY 38, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.1%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    26.2%−0.9
    38% to make
    Punt
    26.2%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:17HOU 4th & 7 at BAY 29, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.4%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.6%
    58% to make
    Punt
    20.3%−5.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:15BAY 4th & 21 at BAY 18, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.6%−4.9
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.5%
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:52HOU 4th & 4 at BAY 6, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.3%−0.5
    91% to make
    Punt
    13.1%−8.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:06BAY 4th & 10 at BAY 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.7%−1.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:38HOU 4th & 8 at HOU 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.0%−1.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:37BAY 4th & 16 at HOU 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.6%−2.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    79.4%−1.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    80.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:24BAY 4th & 4 at HOU 33, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 85.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.7%−1.2
    49% to make
    Punt
    83.2%−2.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:59BAY 4th & 4 at HOU 37, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    88.8%−1.3
    40% to make
    Punt
    88.3%−1.8
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:14BAY 4th & 4 at HOU 25, up 10
    Close callWent for it · 94.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.5%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    93.6%
    66% to make
    Punt
    89.9%−3.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HOU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1BAY made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 6:11BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:32HOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:50BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BAYDrive 1INT
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:5566% → 66%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
34.1%
Bryson Washington run for 6 yds to the BAY 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-1
34.1%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for a loss of 1 yard to the BAY 30Similar
Q1 14:05
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-3
34.4%
Sawyer Robertson pass intercepted Jeremiah Wilson return for 3 yds to the BAY 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 2INT
5 plays · 28 yds · 2:3435% → 36%
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
34.6%
Re'Shaun Sanford II run for 3 yds to the BAY 30Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+12
34.6%
Re'Shaun Sanford II run for 12 yds to the BAY 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
34.6%
Zeon Chriss run for no gain to the BAY 18Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+13
34.6%
Zeon Chriss run for 13 yds to the BAY 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
36.0%
Zeon Chriss pass intercepted, touchback. Devyn Bobby return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 3TD
14 plays · 80 yds · 5:2065% → 67%
Q1 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
35.5%
Bryson Washington run for 7 yds to the BAY 27Similar
Q1 11:31
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+12
35.3%
Bryson Washington run for 12 yds to the BAY 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
35.3%
Bryson Washington run for 6 yds to the BAY 45Similar
Q1 11:31
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+4
35.2%
Bryson Washington run for 4 yds to the BAY 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
35.1%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:31
2ND & 9
50
+9
35.1%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Hal Presley for 9 yds to the HOU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
35.1%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:31
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+4
35.1%
Bryson Washington run for 4 yds to the HOU 37Similar
Q1 11:31
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+3
35.2%
Bryson Washington run for 3 yds to the HOU 34Similar
Q1 11:31
4TH & 3
OPP 34
+10
35.3%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 10 yds to the HOU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+14
35.0%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Michael Trigg for 14 yds to the HOU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
35.0%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
35.0%
Bryson Washington run for 5 yds to the HOU 5Similar
Q1 6:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
33.5%
Michael Trigg 5 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Isaiah Hankins Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:4634% → 34%
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-5
34.4%
Houston Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the HOU 14Similar
Q1 6:06
1ST & 15
OWN 14
0
34.3%
Zeon Chriss pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:06
2ND & 15
OWN 14
+1
34.3%
DJ Butler run for 1 yd to the HOU 15Similar
Q1 6:06
3RD & 14
OWN 15
0
34.0%
Zeon Chriss pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:20
4TH & 14
OWN 15
0
33.8%
Liam Dougherty punt for 57 yds, downed at the BAY 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 30 yds · 2:4866% → 66%
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
34.0%
Dawson Pendergrass run for no gain to the BAY 28Similar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+35
34.2%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Michael Trigg for 35 yds to the HOU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-10
33.3%
Baylor Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the HOU 45Similar
Q1 5:20
1ST & 18
OPP 45
-2
33.5%
Dawson Pendergrass run for a loss of 2 yards to the HOU 47Similar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 20
OPP 47
0
33.6%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:20
3RD & 20
OPP 47
+5
34.0%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 5 yds to the HOU 42Similar
Q1 2:32
4TH & 15
OPP 42
0
34.3%
Palmer Williams punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0734% → 34%
Q1 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
34.2%
Zeon Chriss pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:32
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
34.2%
Zeon Chriss run for 3 yds to the HOU 23Similar
Q1 2:32
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+3
33.7%
Zeon Chriss run for 3 yds to the HOU 26Similar
Q1 1:25
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
33.5%
Liam Dougherty punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Josh Cameron at the BAY 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 7INT TD
3 plays · 10 yds · 0:5366% → 61%
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
33.7%
Bryson Washington run for 9 yds to the BAY 35Similar
Q1 1:25
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+1
33.3%
Bryson Washington run for 1 yd to the BAY 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-41
38.7%
Jeremiah Wilson 41 Yd Interception Return (Jack Martin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 8TD
12 plays · 74 yds · 5:1061% → 68%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
39.3%
Bryson Washington run for 2 yds to the BAY 28Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 28
-10
39.2%
ROBERTSON, Sawyer pass deep up the middle complete for 20 yards to TRIGG, Michael caught at the BAY46 and advanced to the BAY48 (BATTON, Michael;HAULCY, A.J.). PENALTY BAY Holding on PRICE, Coleton enforced 10 yards from the BAY28 to the BAY18 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 18
OWN 18
+17
39.5%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Hal Presley for 17 yds to the BAY 35Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+2
38.7%
Bryson Washington run for 2 yds to the BAY 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
38.8%
Richard Reese run for 8 yds to the BAY 45Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 45
0
38.0%
Richard Reese run for no gain to the BAY 45Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+3
38.2%
Bryson Washington run for 3 yds to the BAY 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+16
38.0%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 16 yds to the HOU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
37.8%
Bryson Washington run for 8 yds to the HOU 28Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 28
+1
37.3%
Bryson Washington run for 1 yd to the HOU 27Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+4
37.8%
Bryson Washington run for 4 yds to the HOU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
31.6%
Ashtyn Hawkins 23 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Isaiah Hankins Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 3:4234% → 32%
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
33.9%
Stacy Sneed run for 6 yds to the HOU 31Similar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
34.8%
Stacy Sneed run for 4 yds to the HOU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
34.2%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Stephon Johnson for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:03
1ST & 10
50
-3
35.3%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Stacy Sneed for a loss of 3 yards to the HOU 47Similar
Q2 7:24
2ND & 13
OWN 47
+4
33.8%
Stacy Sneed run for 4 yds to the BAY 49Similar
Q2 6:45
3RD & 9
OPP 49
-4
33.8%
Zeon Chriss sacked by Keaton Thomas and Elinus Noel III for a loss of 4 yards to the HOU 47Similar
Q2 6:08
4TH & 13
OWN 47
0
32.1%
Liam Dougherty punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Josh Cameron at the BAY 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 10FG
14 plays · 59 yds · 6:0168% → 73%
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+8
32.3%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 8 yds to the BAY 22Similar
Q2 5:28
2ND & 2
OWN 22
+5
31.4%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 5 yds to the BAY 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
31.7%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 7 yds to the BAY 34Similar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+2
31.0%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 2 yds to the BAY 36Similar
Q2 3:49
3RD & 1
OWN 36
0
31.0%
Dawson Pendergrass run for no gain to the BAY 36Similar
Q2 3:00
4TH & 1
OWN 36
+3
30.9%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 3 yds to the BAY 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+42
28.8%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Michael Trigg for 42 yds to the HOU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+10
26.1%
(02:00) ROBERTSON, Sawyer pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for PRESLEY, Hal thrown to the HOU0, clock 01:56. PENALTY HOU Face mask on MCCUTCHIN SR., Latrell enforced half the distance from the goal, 10 yards from the HOU19 to the HOU9 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
26.1%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 5 yds to the HOU 4Similar
Q2 1:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
26.0%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 2 yds to the HOU 2Similar
Q2 0:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-25
26.2%
run for a loss of 25 yards to the HOU 27 fumbled, recovered by BAY Bryson Washington B. Washington return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 27
+45
27.3%
Isaiah Hankins 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 11MISSED FG
14 plays · 46 yds · 6:4328% → 26%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
27.5%
Re'Shaun Sanford II run for 3 yds to the HOU 28Similar
Q3 14:28
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
27.6%
Zeon Chriss run for 1 yd to the HOU 29Similar
Q3 13:52
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+7
26.5%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Maliq Carr for 7 yds to the HOU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
27.6%
Re'Shaun Sanford II run for 1 yd to the HOU 37Similar
Q3 12:39
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+20
27.0%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Stephon Johnson for 20 yds to the BAY 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
28.8%
Stacy Sneed run for 4 yds to the BAY 39Similar
Q3 11:51
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+1
28.8%
Stacy Sneed run for 1 yd to the BAY 38Similar
Q3 11:16
3RD & 5
OPP 38
0
28.3%
Zeon Chriss pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:11
4TH & 5
OPP 38
+6
26.8%
Zeon Chriss run for 6 yds to the BAY 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
29.8%
Re'Shaun Sanford II run for 3 yds to the BAY 29Similar
Q3 10:11
2ND & 7
OPP 29
-5
29.8%
Houston Penalty, False Start (Maliq Carr) to the BAY 34Similar
Q3 9:48
2ND & 12
OPP 34
+4
29.0%
Zeon Chriss run for 4 yds to the BAY 30Similar
Q3 9:06
3RD & 8
OPP 30
+1
27.9%
Zeon Chriss run for 1 yd to the BAY 29Similar
Q3 8:17
4TH & 7
OPP 29
+47
25.8%
Jack Martin 47 Yard Field Goal MissedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -11 yds · 1:5974% → 74%
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
25.6%
Bryson Washington run for 3 yds to the BAY 32Similar
Q3 7:46
2ND & 7
OWN 32
-10
25.4%
Bryson Washington sacked by Jamal Morris for a loss of 10 yards to the BAY 22Similar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 17
OWN 22
-4
26.4%
Bryson Washington sacked by Latreveon McCutchin for a loss of 4 yards to the BAY 18Similar
Q3 6:15
4TH & 21
OWN 18
+5
25.9%
Palmer Williams punt for 57 yds , Mekhi Mews returns for 5 yds to the HOU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 13FG
14 plays · 74 yds · 6:1323% → 30%
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
23.4%
Zeon Chriss pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
23.4%
Re'Shaun Sanford II run for 3 yds to the HOU 23Similar
Q3 5:21
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+9
22.2%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Mekhi Mews for 9 yds to the HOU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
23.5%
Re'Shaun Sanford II run for 5 yds to the HOU 37Similar
Q3 4:16
2ND & 5
OWN 37
0
24.1%
Zeon Chriss pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:12
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+5
22.8%
Stacy Sneed run for 5 yds to the HOU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-10
24.2%
(03:36) CHRISS, Zeon pass to the right complete for 29 yards to SNEED, Stacy caught at the HOU42 and advanced to the BAY29 (LEMEAR, Devin), out of bounds, clock 03:29. PENALTY HOU Holding on JENKINS, Tank enforced 10 yards from the HOU42 to the HOU32 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 3:16
1ST & 20
OWN 32
+19
22.5%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Stephon Johnson for 19 yds to the BAY 49Similar
Q3 2:33
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+16
24.9%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Maliq Carr for 16 yds to the BAY 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+21
26.4%
Joseph Manjack IV pass complete to Zeon Chriss for 21 yds to the BAY 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
25.9%
Zeon Chriss run for no gain to the BAY 12Similar
Q3 0:31
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+6
25.8%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Re'Shaun Sanford II for 6 yds to the BAY 6Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 6
0
23.9%
Zeon Chriss pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:52
4TH & 4
OPP 6
+24
29.8%
Jack Martin 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:3876% → 74%
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
24.3%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:40
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
23.4%
Sawyer Robertson run for no gain to the BAY 30Similar
Q4 14:08
3RD & 10
OWN 30
0
24.4%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:06
4TH & 10
OWN 30
0
25.6%
Palmer Williams punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Mekhi Mews at the HOU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1928% → 25%
Q4 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
27.8%
DJ Butler run for 3 yds to the HOU 31Similar
Q4 13:26
2ND & 7
OWN 31
-1
27.9%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to DJ Butler for a loss of 1 yard to the HOU 30Similar
Q4 12:45
3RD & 8
OWN 30
0
25.8%
Zeon Chriss pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:38
4TH & 8
OWN 30
0
24.8%
Liam Dougherty punt for 44 yds, downed at the BAY 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 16PUNT
10 plays · 31 yds · 4:1277% → 80%
Q4 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
22.7%
Bryson Washington run for 2 yds to the BAY 28Similar
Q4 11:42
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+24
22.5%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 24 yds to the HOU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
19.3%
Bryson Washington run for 7 yds to the HOU 41Similar
Q4 10:42
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+4
19.0%
Bryson Washington run for 4 yds to the HOU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-10
17.8%
(10:10) ROBERTSON, Sawyer pass to the left incomplete intended for WASHINGTON, Bryson thrown to the HOU28, clock 10:06. PENALTY BAY Holding on TRIGG, Michael enforced 10 yards from the HOU37 to the HOU47 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:05
1ST & 20
OPP 47
+7
18.1%
Bryson Washington run for 7 yds to the HOU 40Similar
Q4 9:27
2ND & 13
OPP 40
+1
17.0%
Bryson Washington run for 1 yd to the HOU 39Similar
Q4 8:41
3RD & 12
OPP 39
-5
17.3%
Baylor Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the HOU 44Similar
Q4 8:17
3RD & 17
OPP 44
+1
18.0%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Bryson Washington for 1 yd to the HOU 43Similar
Q4 7:37
4TH & 16
OPP 43
0
20.2%
Palmer Williams punt for 39 yds, downed at the HOU 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 17INT
3 plays · 13 yds · 1:0624% → 22%
Q4 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+7
23.8%
Re'Shaun Sanford II run for 7 yds to the HOU 11Similar
Q4 6:56
2ND & 3
OWN 11
+6
22.1%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 6 yds to the HOU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-2
22.4%
Zeon Chriss pass intercepted Lorando Johnson return for 2 yds to the HOU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 18FG
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:5685% → 89%
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
14.9%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 3 yds to the HOU 36Similar
Q4 5:47
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+4
13.5%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 4 yds to the HOU 32Similar
Q4 5:09
3RD & 3
OPP 32
-1
11.7%
Dawson Pendergrass run for a loss of 1 yard to the HOU 33Similar
Q4 4:24
4TH & 4
OPP 33
+50
11.1%
Isaiah Hankins 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 19DOWNS
12 plays · 17 yds · 2:5991% → 95%
Q4 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
9.4%
Bryson Washington run for 4 yds to the HOU 39Similar
Q4 4:07
2ND & 6
OPP 39
0
8.2%
Bryson Washington run for no gain to the HOU 39Similar
Q4 4:02
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+2
8.5%
Bryson Washington run for 2 yds to the HOU 37Similar
Q4 3:59
4TH & 4
OPP 37
+6
8.4%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 6 yds to the HOU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
6.6%
Bryson Washington run for 3 yds to the HOU 28Similar
Q4 2:44
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+3
5.4%
Bryson Washington run for 3 yds to the HOU 25Similar
Q4 1:59
3RD & 4
OPP 25
0
4.1%
Bryson Washington run for no gain to the HOU 25Similar
Q4 1:14
4TH & 4
OPP 25
-17
4.7%
Sawyer Robertson pass intercepted A.J. Haulcy return for 17 yds to the HOU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 20INT
4 plays · 32 yds · 0:553% → 4%
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+18
3.4%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Traville Frederick Jr. for 18 yds to the HOU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
3.8%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Mekhi Mews for 4 yds to the HOU 48Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+10
4.1%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Re'Shaun Sanford II for 10 yds to the BAY 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
4.3%
Zeon Chriss pass intercepted Devin Lemear return for no gain to the BAY 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 21END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-2
4.4%
(00:10) [NH] Kneel down by ROBERTSON, Sawyer at BAY31 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 6:20
Dawson Pendergrass run for 3 yds to the HOU 36
-7.5
TD · Q2 9:50
Ashtyn Hawkins 23 Yd pass from Sawyer Robertson (Isaiah Hankins Kick)
-6.2
FG · Q4 14:52
Jack Martin 24 yd FG GOOD
+5.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com