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CIN

Cincinnati 17 at Iowa State 34

ISU
2024 · Week 12 · Nov 16, 2024 · Jack Trice Stadium
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Win probability · ISU
modelISU aheadCIN aheadconfidence bandkey playISU scoreCIN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-1.1ISU 65.8%Nathan Hawks 29 yd FG GOODAWAY 10 - HOME 7 · Q2 12:18
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:18 · Nathan Hawks 29 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 44Pregame prior+16.6Home team on offense−2.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5Garbage-time factor−0.1Score differential−1.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:53: Carson Hansen run for 2 yds for a TD (Kyle Konrardy KICK) — ISU win probability +6.4 pts (now 72%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:08: Kyle Konrardy 37 yd FG GOOD — ISU win probability +7.0 pts (now 60%) (top driver: Offense has -7 timeouts left).
  3. TD · Q3 10:04: Rocco Becht pass complete to Stevo Klotz for 26 yds for a TD (Kyle Konrardy KICK) — ISU win probability +12.2 pts (now 80%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:44: Brendan Sorsby run for 41 yds for a TD (Nathan Hawks KICK) — CIN win probability +18.8 pts (now 35%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q4 4:04: Rocco Becht run for 15 yds for a TD (Kyle Konrardy KICK) — ISU win probability +14.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ISU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9CIN made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 13:39CIN 4th & 1 at CIN 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    30.5%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:47ISU 4th & 14 at ISU 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.8%−0.5
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:58CIN 4th & 6 at CIN 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.8%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:18CIN 4th & 6 at ISU 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.3%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.5%
    87% to make
    Punt
    31.5%−3.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:42ISU 4th & 3 at ISU 48, down 3
    Close callPunted · 63.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.5%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:07CIN 4th & 3 at CIN 27, up 3
    Close callPunted · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.4%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:36ISU 4th & 12 at ISU 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.0%−1.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:29CIN 4th & 14 at CIN 17, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.4%−2.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:16ISU 4th & 9 at CIN 49, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.3%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.7%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:36CIN 4th & 10 at CIN 20, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.8%−2.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.9%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:08ISU 4th & 5 at CIN 18, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.9%−1.7
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.6%
    79% to make
    Punt
    54.7%−4.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:19ISU 4th & 9 at ISU 42, up 7
    Numbers favored punt by 1.6 ptsWent for it · 78.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.1%−1.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    79.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:53ISU 4th & 8 at CIN 34, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 79.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.4%
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.3%−0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    78.3%−1.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:59CIN 4th & 9 at CIN 43, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.3%−1.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:09ISU 4th & 1 at ISU 41, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    69.5%−4.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:26CIN 4th & 20 at CIN 15, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.3%−0.7
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.0%
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:09ISU 4th & 2 at CIN 27, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    95.1%−0.2
    62% to make
    Punt
    93.8%−1.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ISU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4CIN made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 9:56CIN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:53ISU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:04ISU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 11:44CIN Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.7%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.7%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 4:04ISU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:09ISU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CINDrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 5:0327% → 30%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
73.4%
Barry Jackson Jr. run for a loss of 5 yards to the CIN 20Similar
Q1 14:27
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
73.3%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:23
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+14
73.3%
Brendan Sorsby run for 14 yds to the CIN 34Similar
Q1 13:39
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+7
73.1%
Brendan Sorsby run for 7 yds to the CIN 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
72.9%
Corey Kiner run for 2 yds to the CIN 43Similar
Q1 12:28
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+23
72.7%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Tony Johnson for 23 yds to the ISU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
72.4%
Corey Kiner run for 4 yds to the ISU 30Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+12
72.1%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 12 yds to the ISU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
71.9%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Evan Pryor for 6 yds to the ISU 12Similar
Q1 9:56
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+12
70.3%
Evan Pryor run for 12 yds for a TD (Nathan Hawks KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 10 yds · 3:0871% → 68%
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
70.7%
Carson Hansen run for 4 yds to the ISU 29Similar
Q1 9:39
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
70.7%
Carson Hansen run for no gain to the ISU 29Similar
Q1 9:01
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+10
70.1%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Gabe Burkle for 10 yds to the ISU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
70.0%
Rocco Becht run for no gain to the ISU 39Similar
Q1 7:56
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+5
69.6%
Connor Moberly run for 5 yds to the ISU 44Similar
Q1 7:13
3RD & 5
OWN 44
-4
69.3%
Rocco Becht sacked by Jared Bartlett for a loss of 4 yards to the ISU 40Similar
Q1 6:50
4TH & 9
OWN 40
-5
68.3%
Iowa State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ISU 35Similar
Q1 6:47
4TH & 14
OWN 35
0
68.1%
Tyler Perkins punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 4 yds · 2:4531% → 33%
Q1 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
68.7%
Cincinnati Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Francis Sherman) to the CIN 21Similar
Q1 6:13
1ST & 20
OWN 11
+15
68.2%
Corey Kiner run for 15 yds to the CIN 26Similar
Q1 5:38
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+1
67.4%
Corey Kiner run for 1 yd to the CIN 27Similar
Q1 4:58
3RD & 4
OWN 27
-2
67.2%
Corey Kiner run for a loss of 2 yards to the CIN 25Similar
Q1 4:22
4TH & 6
OWN 25
-5
67.4%
Cincinnati Penalty, False Start (Josh Minkins) to the CIN 20Similar
Q1 4:15
4TH & 11
OWN 20
+5
67.5%
Iowa State Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the CIN 25Similar
Q1 3:58
4TH & 6
OWN 25
+28
67.2%
Mason Fletcher punt for 42 yds , Jaylin Noel returns for 28 yds to the CIN 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 4TD
6 plays · 39 yds · 1:5167% → 72%
Q1 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
66.6%
Carson Hansen run for a loss of 1 yard to the CIN 40Similar
Q1 3:07
2ND & 11
OPP 40
+32
66.0%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Gabe Burkle for 32 yds to the CIN 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
66.5%
Carson Hansen run for a loss of 1 yard to the CIN 9Similar
Q1 2:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
66.4%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
65.9%
(02:02) BECHT, Rocco pass to the right incomplete intended for HIGGINS, Jayden thrown to the CIN0, clock 01:57. PENALTY CIN Pass Interference on YOUNG, Jordan enforced 7 yards to the CIN2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 1:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
72.3%
Carson Hansen run for 2 yds for a TD (Kyle Konrardy KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 5FG
11 plays · 59 yds · 4:2731% → 34%
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
69.4%
Cincinnati Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the CIN 25Similar
Q1 1:45
1ST & 15
OWN 25
+10
69.7%
Corey Kiner run for 10 yds to the CIN 35Similar
Q1 1:02
2ND & 5
OWN 35
-5
68.8%
Cincinnati Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the CIN 30Similar
Q1 0:47
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+4
69.4%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Corey Kiner for 4 yds to the CIN 34Similar
Q1 0:17
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+10
69.1%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Joe Royer for 10 yds to the CIN 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+41
68.0%
Brendan Sorsby run for 41 yds to the ISU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
66.5%
Cincinnati Penalty, False Start (Josh Minkins) to the ISU 20Similar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 15
OPP 20
+3
66.5%
Evan Pryor run for 3 yds to the ISU 17Similar
Q2 13:11
2ND & 12
OPP 17
0
66.3%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:01
3RD & 12
OPP 17
+6
66.9%
Brendan Sorsby run for 6 yds to the ISU 11Similar
Q2 12:18
4TH & 6
OPP 11
+29
65.8%
Nathan Hawks 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 2:3565% → 64%
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
65.0%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 16 yds to the ISU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
66.2%
Abu Sama III run for 6 yds to the ISU 47Similar
Q2 11:04
2ND & 4
OWN 47
0
66.3%
Aiden Flora run for no gain to the ISU 47Similar
Q2 10:23
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+1
65.4%
Carson Hansen run for 1 yd to the ISU 48Similar
Q2 9:42
4TH & 3
OWN 48
0
63.9%
Tyler Perkins punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2835% → 35%
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
64.6%
Corey Kiner run for 4 yds to the CIN 24Similar
Q2 8:59
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
64.1%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:53
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+3
65.0%
Brendan Sorsby run for 3 yds to the CIN 27Similar
Q2 8:07
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
64.6%
Mason Fletcher punt for 24 yds, downed at the ISU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:2565% → 62%
Q2 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-3
65.1%
Abu Sama III run for a loss of 3 yards to the ISU 46Similar
Q2 7:23
2ND & 13
OWN 46
0
63.2%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:18
3RD & 13
OWN 46
+1
62.0%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Stevo Klotz for 1 yd to the ISU 47Similar
Q2 6:36
4TH & 12
OWN 47
0
62.2%
Jace J. Gilbert punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 7 yds · 3:0039% → 35%
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
61.5%
Corey Kiner run for 3 yds to the CIN 13Similar
Q2 6:06
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+6
63.4%
Evan Pryor run for 6 yds to the CIN 19Similar
Q2 5:25
3RD & 1
OWN 19
+2
64.4%
Corey Kiner run for 2 yds to the CIN 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
63.0%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+1
63.3%
Evan Pryor run for 1 yd to the CIN 22Similar
Q2 4:15
3RD & 9
OWN 22
+5
63.9%
Iowa State Penalty, Offsides (Tyler Onyedim) to the CIN 27Similar
Q2 3:57
3RD & 4
OWN 27
-5
62.9%
Cincinnati Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the CIN 22Similar
Q2 3:32
3RD & 9
OWN 22
0
63.6%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:29
4TH & 9
OWN 22
-5
64.6%
Cincinnati Penalty, Delay Of Game (Mason Fletcher) to the CIN 17Similar
Q2 3:29
4TH & 14
OWN 17
0
64.6%
Mason Fletcher punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Noel at the ISU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:0260% → 60%
Q2 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
60.3%
Aiden Flora run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
50
+5
62.5%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Stevo Klotz for 5 yds to the CIN 45Similar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 5
OPP 45
-10
62.5%
(02:05) SAMA, Abu rush up the middle for a gain of 1 yard to the CIN44 (GOLDAY, Jake;PEEK JR., Antwan), clock 02:01. PENALTY ISU Holding on TRAVIS, Jalen enforced 10 yards from the CIN45 to the ISU45 [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 15
OWN 45
+6
60.6%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 6 yds to the CIN 49Similar
Q2 1:22
3RD & 9
OPP 49
0
60.8%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:16
4TH & 9
OPP 49
+13
59.5%
Jace J. Gilbert punt for 42 yds , Jamoi Mayes returns for 13 yds to the CIN 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:2738% → 36%
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-7
62.0%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Evan Pryor for a loss of 7 yards to the CIN 13Similar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 17
OWN 13
+2
62.5%
Brendan Sorsby run for 2 yds to the CIN 15Similar
Q2 0:52
3RD & 15
OWN 15
+5
63.5%
Brendan Sorsby run for 5 yds to the CIN 20Similar
Q2 0:36
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
64.2%
Mason Fletcher punt for 18 yds, downed at the CIN 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 12FG
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:2753% → 60%
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
53.0%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylon Jackson for no gain to the CIN 38Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+15
52.7%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 15 yds to the CIN 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
54.8%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
54.7%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:12
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+5
52.7%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 5 yds to the CIN 18Similar
Q2 0:08
4TH & 5
OPP 18
+37
59.7%
Kyle Konrardy 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
66.2%
Brendan Sorsby run for a loss of 2 yards to the CIN 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 14TD
10 plays · 76 yds · 4:4667% → 80%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
66.7%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+7
66.5%
Abu Sama III run for 7 yds to the ISU 31Similar
Q3 14:04
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+10
66.2%
(14:04) BECHT, Rocco pass short to the right incomplete intended for HIGGINS, Jayden thrown to the ISU35, clock 14:00. PENALTY CIN Holding on CARROLL, Kalen enforced 10 yards from the ISU31 to the ISU41 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
68.4%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 4 yds to the ISU 45Similar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+1
68.9%
Aiden Flora run for 1 yd to the ISU 46Similar
Q3 12:38
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+6
67.5%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Brett Eskildsen for 6 yds to the CIN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
68.8%
Carson Hansen run for no gain to the CIN 48Similar
Q3 11:24
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+3
68.4%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 3 yds to the CIN 45Similar
Q3 10:46
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+19
68.0%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 19 yds to the CIN 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
80.1%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Stevo Klotz for 26 yds for a TD (Kyle Konrardy KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 15FUMBLE
9 plays · 62 yds · 3:1624% → 30%
Q3 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
76.1%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Tony Johnson for 5 yds to the CIN 30Similar
Q3 9:41
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+13
75.2%
Corey Kiner run for 13 yds to the CIN 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+12
74.5%
Corey Kiner run for 12 yds to the ISU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
73.0%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+11
73.2%
Brendan Sorsby run for 11 yds to the ISU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-2
71.0%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Joe Royer for a loss of 2 yards to the ISU 36Similar
Q3 7:19
2ND & 12
OPP 36
+15
73.5%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Tony Johnson for 15 yds to the ISU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-7
70.3%
Brendan Sorsby run for 8 yds to the ISU 28 Brendan Sorsby fumbled, recovered by ISU Tyler Onyedim T. Onyedim return for 0 yds Cincinnati Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Deondre Buford) to the ISU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 16FG
12 plays · 38 yds · 3:4779% → 85%
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+13
79.4%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 13 yds to the ISU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
81.2%
(06:15) BECHT, Rocco pass short to the left complete for 6 yards to HIGGINS, Jayden caught at the ISU46 and advanced to the ISU47 (ARNOLD, Ormanie), clock 06:10. PENALTY Before the snap, ISU Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the ISU41 to the ISU36. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:07
1ST & 15
OWN 36
0
79.7%
Abu Sama III run for no gain to the ISU 36Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 15
OWN 36
+6
79.5%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Gabe Burkle for 6 yds to the ISU 42Similar
Q3 5:23
3RD & 9
OWN 42
0
80.4%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:19
4TH & 9
OWN 42
+22
79.1%
Stevo Klotz run for 22 yds to the CIN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-5
82.8%
Iowa State Penalty, Delay Of Game (Rocco Becht) to the CIN 41Similar
Q3 4:13
1ST & 15
OPP 41
+1
82.1%
Abu Sama III run for 1 yd to the CIN 40Similar
Q3 3:38
2ND & 14
OPP 40
+6
81.9%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Gabe Burkle for 6 yds to the CIN 34Similar
Q3 3:04
3RD & 8
OPP 34
0
82.0%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:53
4TH & 8
OPP 34
+52
84.5%
Kyle Konrardy 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:5418% → 15%
Q3 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
81.6%
Corey Kiner run for 17 yds to the CIN 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
80.1%
Brendan Sorsby run for 1 yd to the CIN 43Similar
Q3 1:47
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+6
80.4%
Corey Kiner run for 6 yds to the CIN 49Similar
Q3 1:03
3RD & 3
OWN 49
-1
80.8%
Brendan Sorsby run for a loss of 1 yard to the CIN 48Similar
Q3 0:20
4TH & 4
OWN 48
-5
83.5%
Cincinnati Penalty, False Start (John Williams) to the CIN 43Similar
Q4 14:59
4TH & 9
OWN 43
0
85.3%
Mason Fletcher punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Noel at the ISU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 18FUMBLE
3 plays · 19 yds · 1:1589% → 91%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
89.0%
Carson Hansen run for 3 yds to the ISU 24Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+13
89.3%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Gabe Burkle for 13 yds to the ISU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
90.5%
Carson Hansen run for 3 yds to the ISU 40 Carson Hansen fumbled, recovered by CIN Josh Minkins J. Minkins return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 19TD
4 plays · 40 yds · 1:4719% → 35%
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
81.1%
Corey Kiner run for a loss of 1 yard to the ISU 41Similar
Q4 12:57
2ND & 11
OPP 41
-10
81.7%
Cincinnati Penalty, Offensive Holding (Francis Sherman) to the ISU 48Similar
Q4 12:35
2ND & 18
OPP 48
+7
83.8%
Evan Pryor run for 7 yds to the ISU 41Similar
Q4 11:44
3RD & 11
OPP 41
+41
65.0%
Brendan Sorsby run for 41 yds for a TD (Nathan Hawks KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 20TD
16 plays · 68 yds · 7:2271% → 98%
Q4 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
71.0%
Rocco Becht run for no gain to the ISU 32Similar
Q4 10:57
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
71.4%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:53
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+9
69.7%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 9 yds to the ISU 41Similar
Q4 10:09
4TH & 1
OWN 41
+2
71.3%
Rocco Becht run for 2 yds to the ISU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
74.5%
Abu Sama III run for 2 yds to the ISU 45Similar
Q4 8:57
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+10
74.6%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 10 yds to the CIN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
75.7%
Abu Sama III run for 1 yd to the CIN 44Similar
Q4 7:42
2ND & 9
OPP 44
0
73.7%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:41
3RD & 9
OPP 44
+11
72.0%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Brett Eskildsen for 11 yds to the CIN 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
74.3%
Jaylin Noel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:50
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+3
74.1%
Rocco Becht run for 3 yds to the CIN 30Similar
Q4 6:12
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+7
74.1%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 7 yds to the CIN 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
75.8%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 5 yds to the CIN 18Similar
Q4 4:50
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+3
77.7%
Abu Sama III run for 3 yds to the CIN 15Similar
Q4 4:04
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+15
97.9%
Rocco Becht run for 15 yds for a TD (Kyle Konrardy KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:387% → 6%
Q4 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.0%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Evan Pryor for no gain to the CIN 25Similar
Q4 3:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-10
93.7%
(03:39) SORSBY, Brendan pass to the left incomplete intended for PRYOR, Evan thrown to the CIN25; QB hurried by ORANGE, Domonique, clock 03:35. PENALTY CIN Holding on BUFORD, Deondre enforced 10 yards from the CIN25 to the CIN15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 3:35
2ND & 20
OWN 15
0
93.8%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:30
3RD & 20
OWN 15
0
94.2%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:26
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
94.5%
Mason Fletcher punt for 56 yds, downed at the ISU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 22TD
12 plays · 71 yds · 2:0698% → 99%
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
98.2%
Jaylon Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the ISU 27Similar
Q4 3:12
2ND & 12
OWN 27
+6
98.1%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Gabe Burkle for 6 yds to the ISU 33Similar
Q4 3:06
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+32
98.4%
Rocco Becht run for 32 yds to the CIN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
98.7%
Abu Sama III run for 2 yds to the CIN 33Similar
Q4 2:31
2ND & 8
OPP 33
0
98.8%
Abu Sama III run for no gain to the CIN 33Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+6
98.7%
Abu Sama III run for 6 yds to the CIN 27Similar
Q4 1:09
4TH & 2
OPP 27
+27
99.4%
Abu Sama III run for 27 yds for a TD (Kyle Konrardy KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 23END OF GAME
5 plays · 38 yds · 1:000% → 1%
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
99.6%
Corey Kiner run for 16 yds to the CIN 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
99.6%
Corey Kiner run for a loss of 1 yard to the CIN 40Similar
Q4 0:39
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+16
99.6%
Corey Kiner run for 16 yds to the ISU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
99.5%
Evan Pryor run for 2 yds to the ISU 42Similar
Q4 0:09
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+5
99.5%
Brendan Sorsby run for 5 yds to the ISU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:44
Brendan Sorsby run for 41 yds for a TD (Nathan Hawks KICK)
-18.8
TD · Q4 4:04
Rocco Becht run for 15 yds for a TD (Kyle Konrardy KICK)
+14.6
TD · Q3 10:04
Rocco Becht pass complete to Stevo Klotz for 26 yds for a TD (Kyle Konrardy KICK)
+12.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com