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Win probability · BYU
modelBYU aheadKU aheadconfidence bandkey playBYU scoreKU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:10 · Sam Vander Haar punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Luke Grimm at the KU 17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differential
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 8:48: Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Hinckley Ropati for 30 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK) — BYU win probability +8.5 pts (now 63%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 1:46: Tabor Allen 25 yd FG GOOD — KU win probability +8.0 pts (now 46%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
- FG · Q3 4:30: Will Ferrin 35 yd FG GOOD — BYU win probability +6.2 pts (now 65%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
- FG · Q3 4:30: Timeout BYU, clock 04:30 — KU win probability +3.0 pts (now 38%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- TD · Q4 13:19: Devin Neal run for 3 yds for a TD (Tabor Allen KICK) — KU win probability +37.8 pts (now 70%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
BYU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7KU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
- Q1 6:10BYU 4th & 9 at BYU 39, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.6% before the snapGo for it54.5%−0.232% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call54.8%average punt
- Q1 4:41KU 4th & 7 at KU 20, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.1% before the snapGo for it44.9%−0.235% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call45.2%average punt
- Q2 14:11BYU 4th & 13 at KU 15, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.7% before the snapGo for it50.3%−1.318% to convertField goalTheir call51.6%83% to makePunt47.4%−4.2average punt
- Q2 13:19KU 4th & 5 at KU 30, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.5% before the snapGo for it43.6%−0.241% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call43.8%average punt
- Q2 4:14KU 4th & 6 at BYU 33, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call39.3%40% to convertField goal38.9%−0.349% to makePunt37.8%−1.5average punt
- Q2 1:46KU 4th & 7 at BYU 7, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.1% before the snapGo for it38.4%−0.628% to convertField goalTheir call39.0%91% to makePunt32.4%−6.7average punt
- Q3 8:29BYU 4th & 1 at KU 42, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call60.6%70% to convertField goal55.3%−5.330% to makePunt56.5%−4.2average punt
- Q3 4:30BYU 4th & 3 at KU 17, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 59.5% before the snapGo for it59.4%51% to convertField goalTheir call58.5%−0.980% to makePunt48.0%−11.4average punt
- Q4 13:23KU 4th & 14 at BYU 36, down 3Numbers favored field goal by 1.1 ptsPunted · 31.6% before the snapGo for it30.3%−2.019% to convertField goal32.3%42% to makePuntTheir call31.2%−1.1average punt
- Q4 12:09BYU 4th & 9 at BYU 34, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.4% before the snapGo for it36.9%−2.131% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call39.0%average punt
- Q4 7:10BYU 4th & 11 at KU 47, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.6% before the snapGo for it33.5%−0.326% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.8%average punt
- Q4 4:47KU 4th & 1 at KU 32, up 4Numbers favored go for it by 3.5 ptsPunted · 74.5% before the snapGo for it77.0%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call73.6%−3.5average punt
- Q4 0:46BYU 4th & 11 at KU 16, down 4Numbers favored field goal by 1.4 ptsWent for it · 24.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call18.3%−1.424% to convertField goal19.7%81% to makePunt10.4%−9.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BYU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1KU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 9:07KU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call43.2%97% to makeGo for two43.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:48BYU Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call60.9%97% to makeGo for two60.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:19KU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call56.1%97% to makeGo for two55.7%−0.445% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartKUDrive 1TD12 plays · 84 yds · 5:4344% → 46%
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+29
56.6%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Quentin Skinner for 29 yds to the BYU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:31
2ND & 2
OPP 35
+5
56.2%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Devin Neal for 5 yds to the BYU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:19
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+10
56.0%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 10 yds to the BYU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 2PUNT7 plays · 14 yds · 2:4954% → 53%
Q1 8:12
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
53.8%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Darius Lassiter for 13 yds to the BYU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-3
54.0%
Jake Retzlaff sacked by Dean Miller for a loss of 3 yards to the BYU 35Similar
Q1 6:55
2ND & 13
OWN 35
+4
53.3%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Darius Lassiter for 4 yds to the BYU 39Similar
Q1 6:10
4TH & 9
OWN 39
0
52.6%
Sam Vander Haar punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Luke Grimm at the KU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:1847% → 47%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 4FG13 plays · 42 yds · 5:2352% → 52%
KUDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:4546% → 46%
Q2 13:19
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
54.5%
Damon Greaves punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Parker Kingston at the BYU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 6TD11 plays · 69 yds · 4:1553% → 63%
Q2 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
52.8%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Keelan Marion for 9 yds to the BYU 40Similar
Q2 12:27
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+9
54.3%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Darius Lassiter for 9 yds to the BYU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:14
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+4
54.5%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Hinckley Ropati for 4 yds to the KU 33Similar
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
63.4%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Hinckley Ropati for 30 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 7FG15 plays · 68 yds · 6:5338% → 46%
Q2 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+23
61.4%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Luke Grimm for 23 yds to the BYU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
60.4%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Jared Casey for 7 yds to the BYU 30Similar
Q2 5:35
3RD & 1
OPP 28
-5
60.8%
PENALTY KAN False Start (Skinner,Quentin) 5 yards from BYU28 to BYU33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:14
4TH & 6
OPP 33
+27
62.7%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Luke Grimm for 27 yds to the BYU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
61.3%
PENALTY KAN Delay Of Game (Daniels,Jalon) 5 yards from BYU02 to BYU07. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 8INT10 plays · 70 yds · 1:0158% → 62%
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+16
58.9%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Chase Roberts for 16 yds to the KU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+16
61.1%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Keelan Marion for 16 yds to the KU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+16
62.1%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Mata'ava Ta'ase for 16 yds to the KU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 9END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 10FG20 plays · 66 yds · 10:2058% → 65%
Q3 14:40
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+11
57.6%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Chase Roberts for 11 yds to the BYU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+4
59.6%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Ryner Swanson for 4 yds to the BYU 44Similar
Q3 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
60.8%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Mata'ava Ta'ase for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-2
61.9%
Jake Retzlaff sacked by Dylan Wudke for a loss of 2 yards to the KU 41Similar
Q3 6:54
2ND & 12
OPP 41
+17
61.1%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Keelan Marion for 17 yds to the KU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 11PUNT15 plays · 39 yds · 5:5938% → 33%
Q3 1:39
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+17
63.2%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Luke Grimm for 17 yds to the BYU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+14
59.0%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Jared Casey for 14 yds to the BYU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
55.5%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Devin Neal for 1 yd to the BYU 31Similar
Q4 13:23
4TH & 14
OPP 36
+33
67.4%
Jalon Daniels punt for 26 yds , Evan Johnson returns for no gain to the BYU 3 Evan Johnson fumbled, recovered by KU Quentin SkinnerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 12TD1 play · 3 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5537% → 34%
Q4 12:09
4TH & 9
OWN 34
+5
34.4%
Sam Vander Haar punt for 44 yds , Luke Grimm returns for 5 yds to the KU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 14INT7 plays · 19 yds · 3:2566% → 71%
Q4 10:28
3RD & 11
OWN 26
+22
34.8%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Quentin Skinner for 22 yds to the KU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 11 yds · 1:0944% → 39%
KUDrive 16PUNT6 plays · 19 yds · 2:1568% → 78%
BYUDrive 17DOWNS13 plays · 71 yds · 3:3936% → 16%
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+12
36.4%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Chase Roberts for 12 yds to the BYU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:07
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+24
34.7%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Chase Roberts for 24 yds to the KU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:40
4TH & 6
OPP 11
-5
23.7%
PENALTY BYU False Start (Pay,Connor) 5 yards from KAN11 to KAN16. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:46
4TH & 11
OPP 16
+8
16.2%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Chase Roberts for 8 yds to the KU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:19
Devin Neal run for 3 yds for a TD (Tabor Allen KICK)
-37.8
TD · Q2 8:48
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Hinckley Ropati for 30 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)
+8.5
FG · Q2 1:46
Tabor Allen 25 yd FG GOOD
-8