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HOU

Houston 3 at Arizona 27

ARIZ
2024 · Week 12 · Nov 15, 2024 · Arizona Stadium
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Win probability · ARIZ
modelARIZ aheadHOU aheadconfidence bandkey playARIZ scoreHOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:36 · (00:36) Kneel down by TEAM at ARIZ27 (team loss of 2), clock 00:32.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingTime remaining
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 0:42: Jack Martin 49 yd FG GOOD — HOU win probability +6.5 pts (now 43%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. FG · Q2 0:00: Tyler Loop 62 yd FG GOOD — ARIZ win probability +5.6 pts (now 72%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:01: Noah Fifita pass complete to Quali Conley for 13 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK) — ARIZ win probability +14.0 pts (now 84%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 6:15: Tyler Loop 51 yd FG GOOD — ARIZ win probability +5.5 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:27: Quali Conley run for 50 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK) — ARIZ win probability +7.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 6 of 7HOU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 13:34ARIZ 4th & 5 at ARIZ 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.7%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:16HOU 4th & 1 at ARIZ 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    40.3%−0.7
    49% to make
    Punt
    40.1%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:47ARIZ 4th & 8 at ARIZ 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.6%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:35HOU 4th & 6 at HOU 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.4%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:10ARIZ 4th & 18 at ARIZ 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.3%−1.5
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:55HOU 4th & 1 at ARIZ 1, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.1%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    36.2%−1.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    31.2%−6.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:33ARIZ 4th & 6 at ARIZ 5, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.2%−0.8
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:48ARIZ 4th & 10 at HOU 11, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 67.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.0%−0.8
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    66.8%
    87% to make
    Punt
    61.6%−5.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:42HOU 4th & 9 at ARIZ 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.6%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.5%
    54% to make
    Punt
    31.1%−2.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:48HOU 4th & 5 at HOU 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.1%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:06HOU 4th & 3 at HOU 49, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    17.7%−0.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:15ARIZ 4th & 12 at HOU 33, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.0%−1.1
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.1%
    49% to make
    Punt
    85.0%−1.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:39HOU 4th & 26 at HOU 9, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.6%−3.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.8%
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:19HOU 4th & 10 at ARIZ 27, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.0%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    2.2%
    62% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−1.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:57HOU 4th & 12 at HOU 24, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:12ARIZ 4th & 11 at ARIZ 43, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 8:28ARIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 10:01ARIZ Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 4:27ARIZ Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARIZDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2551% → 51%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
51.0%
Noah Fifita sacked by Anthony Holmes Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the ARIZ 18Similar
Q1 14:23
2ND & 17
OWN 18
0
51.1%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:20
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+12
51.1%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Kedrick Reescano for 12 yds to the ARIZ 30Similar
Q1 13:34
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
51.1%
Michael Salgado-Medina punt for 42 yds , Mekhi Mews returns for no gain to the HOU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 2FUMBLE
5 plays · 31 yds · 1:5849% → 49%
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
51.2%
Re'Shaun Sanford II run for 5 yds to the HOU 33Similar
Q1 12:51
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+17
51.2%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Re'Shaun Sanford II for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:08
1ST & 10
50
-1
51.1%
Zeon Chriss run for a loss of 1 yard to the HOU 49Similar
Q1 11:29
2ND & 11
OWN 49
0
51.3%
Zeon Chriss pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:26
3RD & 11
OWN 49
+10
51.5%
J'Marion Burnette run for 10 yds to the ARIZ 40 J'Marion Burnette fumbled, recovered by ARIZ Genesis SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 3TD
7 plays · 60 yds · 2:4752% → 55%
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
51.9%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Quali Conley for 7 yds to the ARIZ 47Similar
Q1 10:40
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+4
52.2%
Quali Conley run for 4 yds to the HOU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
52.4%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:38
2ND & 11
50
+12
52.2%
Noah Fifita run for 12 yds to the HOU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
52.7%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:11
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+5
52.7%
Noah Fifita run for 5 yds to the HOU 33Similar
Q1 8:28
3RD & 5
OPP 33
+33
55.1%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 33 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 4DOWNS
9 plays · 42 yds · 4:1246% → 44%
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
54.5%
Zeon Chriss pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
54.6%
Zeon Chriss run for no gain to the HOU 25Similar
Q1 7:35
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+13
55.2%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Stephon Johnson for 13 yds to the HOU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
54.9%
Re'Shaun Sanford II run for 3 yds to the HOU 41Similar
Q1 6:24
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+15
55.0%
Arizona Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Lance Keneley) to the ARIZ 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
54.9%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Re'Shaun Sanford II for no gain to the ARIZ 42Similar
Q1 4:46
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+6
55.4%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to DJ Butler for 6 yds to the ARIZ 36Similar
Q1 4:16
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+3
55.4%
Zeon Chriss run for 3 yds to the ARIZ 33Similar
Q1 4:16
4TH & 1
OPP 33
0
56.0%
J'Marion Burnette run for no gain to the ARIZ 33 J'Marion Burnette fumbled, recovered by HOU Joseph Manjack IV J. Manjack IV return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2757% → 57%
Q1 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
57.0%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:08
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+6
56.9%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Chris Hunter for 6 yds to the ARIZ 39Similar
Q1 3:33
3RD & 4
OWN 39
-4
57.6%
Noah Fifita sacked by Keith Cooper Jr. and Carlos Allen for a loss of 4 yards to the ARIZ 35Similar
Q1 2:47
4TH & 8
OWN 35
+50
56.7%
Michael Salgado-Medina punt for 50 yds , Mekhi Mews returns for a loss of 1 yard to the HOU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0643% → 42%
Q1 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
57.3%
Re'Shaun Sanford II run for 1 yd to the HOU 15Similar
Q1 2:12
2ND & 9
OWN 15
0
57.4%
Zeon Chriss pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:04
3RD & 9
OWN 15
+3
58.0%
Zeon Chriss run for 3 yds to the HOU 18Similar
Q1 1:35
4TH & 6
OWN 18
+9
58.5%
Liam Dougherty punt for 49 yds , Jeremiah Patterson returns for 9 yds to the ARIZ 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 1:1559% → 58%
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
59.0%
Kedrick Reescano run for no gain to the ARIZ 42Similar
Q1 0:54
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
58.8%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:52
3RD & 10
OWN 42
-8
58.3%
Noah Fifita sacked by Carlos Allen for a loss of 8 yards to the ARIZ 34Similar
Q1 0:10
4TH & 18
OWN 34
0
57.5%
Michael Salgado-Medina punt for 36 yds , Mekhi Mews returns for no gain to the HOU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 8DOWNS
8 plays · 79 yds · 4:0742% → 41%
Q1 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
58.3%
Zeon Chriss run for 3 yds to the HOU 23Similar
Q2 14:59
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+8
58.3%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Mekhi Mews for 8 yds to the HOU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+21
58.3%
Zeon Chriss run for 21 yds to the ARIZ 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+38
57.2%
Re'Shaun Sanford II run for 38 yds to the ARIZ 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
56.4%
Re'Shaun Sanford II run for 8 yds to the ARIZ 2Similar
Q2 12:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
56.6%
Zeon Chriss run for 1 yd to the ARIZ 1Similar
Q2 11:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
57.8%
Donovan Smith run for no gain to the ARIZ 1Similar
Q2 10:55
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
58.9%
Zeon Chriss pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1761% → 60%
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
60.6%
Noah Fifita run for 1 yd to the ARIZ 2Similar
Q2 10:16
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+3
60.8%
Quali Conley run for 3 yds to the ARIZ 5Similar
Q2 9:45
3RD & 6
OWN 5
0
60.4%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:33
4TH & 6
OWN 5
+35
59.8%
Michael Salgado-Medina punt for 40 yds , Mekhi Mews returns for 35 yds Houston Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the ARIZ 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 10INT
3 plays · -3 yds · 1:2141% → 38%
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
59.0%
DJ Butler run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 43Similar
Q2 8:46
2ND & 8
OPP 43
-5
59.4%
Devan Williams run for a loss of 5 yards to the ARIZ 48Similar
Q2 8:03
3RD & 13
OPP 48
-5
62.1%
Zeon Chriss pass intercepted Zeon Chriss return for 5 yds to the ARIZ 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 11DOWNS
11 plays · 36 yds · 3:4865% → 65%
Q2 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
65.0%
Kedrick Reescano run for no gain to the ARIZ 44Similar
Q2 7:17
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
64.6%
Noah Fifita run for no gain to the ARIZ 44Similar
Q2 6:40
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+31
63.8%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Sam Olson for 31 yds to the HOU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
66.2%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Chris Hunter for 5 yds to the HOU 20Similar
Q2 5:46
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+4
66.5%
Noah Fifita run for 4 yds to the HOU 16Similar
Q2 5:09
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+5
66.1%
Quali Conley run for 5 yds to the HOU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
66.9%
Quali Conley run for no gain to the HOU 11Similar
Q2 4:01
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
67.2%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:56
3RD & 10
OPP 11
0
66.4%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:48
4TH & 10
OPP 11
-9
65.1%
run for a loss of 9 yards to the HOU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 12FG
9 plays · 49 yds · 3:0636% → 43%
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+22
63.9%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Stephon Johnson for 22 yds to the HOU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
62.7%
Re'Shaun Sanford II run for 15 yds to the ARIZ 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+11
61.4%
Zeon Chriss run for 11 yds to the ARIZ 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
59.3%
Zeon Chriss pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+2
59.4%
Zeon Chriss run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 30Similar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 8
OPP 30
-1
61.2%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Maliq Carr for a loss of 1 yard to the ARIZ 31Similar
Q2 0:42
4TH & 9
OPP 31
+49
57.3%
Jack Martin 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 13FG
8 plays · 31 yds · 0:4159% → 72%
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
59.0%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Chris Hunter for 13 yds to the ARIZ 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
60.5%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+7
60.0%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Quali Conley for 7 yds to the ARIZ 45Similar
Q2 0:16
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+11
60.0%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 11 yds to the HOU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
62.7%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+62
71.6%
Tyler Loop 62 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0734% → 32%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
66.2%
Mekhi Mews run for a loss of 3 yards to the HOU 22Similar
Q3 14:23
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+8
66.9%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Mekhi Mews for 8 yds to the HOU 30Similar
Q3 13:57
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
66.9%
Zeon Chriss pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:48
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
68.4%
Liam Dougherty punt for 40 yds , Jeremiah Patterson returns for no gain to the ARIZ 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 15TD
10 plays · 70 yds · 3:4068% → 84%
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
68.0%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+9
67.8%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 9 yds to the ARIZ 39Similar
Q3 13:01
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+2
69.3%
Noah Fifita run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+19
70.2%
Quali Conley run for 19 yds to the HOU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
71.4%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:57
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+12
71.3%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 12 yds to the HOU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
72.1%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:18
2ND & 10
OPP 28
-3
72.1%
Kedrick Reescano run for a loss of 3 yards to the HOU 31Similar
Q3 10:44
3RD & 13
OPP 31
+18
69.9%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Chris Hunter for 18 yds to the HOU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
84.0%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Quali Conley for 13 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 16DOWNS
6 plays · 24 yds · 1:5519% → 20%
Q3 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
81.2%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Stephon Johnson for 17 yds to the HOU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
80.3%
Zeon Chriss run for 4 yds to the HOU 46Similar
Q3 8:48
2ND & 6
OWN 46
0
80.0%
Zeon Chriss pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:42
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+3
79.3%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 3 yds to the HOU 49Similar
Q3 8:06
4TH & 3
OWN 49
0
79.7%
Holman Edwards pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 17FG
5 plays · 16 yds · 1:4583% → 90%
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+18
83.1%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Chris Hunter for 18 yds to the HOU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-8
84.5%
Noah Fifita sacked by Keith Cooper Jr. and Hershey McLaurin for a loss of 8 yards to the HOU 39Similar
Q3 6:41
2ND & 18
OPP 39
+6
84.9%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 6 yds to the HOU 33Similar
Q3 6:26
3RD & 12
OPP 33
0
84.6%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:15
4TH & 12
OPP 33
+51
90.0%
Tyler Loop 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -16 yds · 1:3512% → 9%
Q3 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
88.5%
Re'Shaun Sanford II run for 3 yds to the HOU 28Similar
Q3 5:44
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
88.0%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Re'Shaun Sanford II for no gain to the HOU 28Similar
Q3 5:01
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-10
89.5%
Houston Penalty, personal foul (-10 Yards) to the HOU 9Similar
Q3 4:39
4TH & 26
OWN 9
0
90.6%
Liam Dougherty punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Patterson at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 19TD
1 play · 50 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 4:27
1ST & 10
50
+50
97.6%
Quali Conley run for 50 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 20DOWNS
11 plays · 48 yds · 4:084% → 3%
Q3 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
95.7%
Zeon Chriss run for 9 yds to the HOU 34Similar
Q3 3:51
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
95.7%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Re'Shaun Sanford II for 5 yds to the HOU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-10
95.8%
Houston Penalty, Offensive Holding (Shamar Hobdy-Lee) to the HOU 35Similar
Q3 2:57
1ST & 14
OWN 35
0
96.2%
Re'Shaun Sanford II run for no gain to the HOU 35Similar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 14
OWN 35
+5
96.5%
Zeon Chriss run for 5 yds to the HOU 40Similar
Q3 1:37
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+18
96.8%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Stephon Johnson for 18 yds to the ARIZ 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
96.6%
CHRISS, Zeon pass deep to the left incomplete intended for JOHNSON, Stephon thrown to the ARIZ22, clock 01:12. PENALTY ARIZ Pass Interference on GROVES-KILLEBREW, Marquis enforced 15 yards to the ARIZ27 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
96.1%
Zeon Chriss pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
96.6%
Zeon Chriss pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:59
3RD & 10
OPP 27
0
96.9%
Zeon Chriss run for no gain to the ARIZ 27Similar
Q3 0:19
4TH & 10
OPP 27
0
97.3%
Zeon Chriss pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 21INT
8 plays · 37 yds · 3:4098% → 99%
Q3 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
98.4%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Chris Hunter for 5 yds to the ARIZ 32Similar
Q4 14:59
2ND & 5
OWN 32
0
98.4%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+6
98.5%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tyler Powell for 6 yds to the ARIZ 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
98.7%
Quali Conley run for 7 yds to the ARIZ 45Similar
Q4 13:37
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+9
98.9%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jeremiah Patterson for 9 yds to the HOU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
99.0%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jeremiah Patterson for 4 yds to the HOU 42Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+6
99.0%
Kedrick Reescano run for 6 yds to the HOU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
99.1%
Noah Fifita pass intercepted Hershey McLaurin return for no gain to the HOU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:312% → 2%
Q4 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
98.3%
Zeon Chriss run for a loss of 2 yards to the HOU 24Similar
Q4 10:44
2ND & 12
OWN 24
-6
98.4%
Zeon Chriss sacked by Tre Smith for a loss of 6 yards to the HOU 18Similar
Q4 10:25
3RD & 18
OWN 18
+6
98.5%
Zeon Chriss run for 6 yds to the HOU 24Similar
Q4 9:57
4TH & 12
OWN 24
0
98.5%
Liam Dougherty punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Patterson at the ARIZ 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 3:3799% → 100%
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
99.1%
Quali Conley run for 6 yds to the ARIZ 37Similar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+1
99.2%
Quali Conley run for 1 yd to the ARIZ 38Similar
Q4 8:27
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+6
99.3%
Quali Conley run for 6 yds to the ARIZ 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
99.4%
Kedrick Reescano run for 3 yds to the ARIZ 47Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+2
99.4%
Kedrick Reescano run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 49Similar
Q4 6:17
3RD & 5
OWN 49
-6
99.5%
Noah Fifita sacked by Brandon Mack for a loss of 6 yards to the ARIZ 43Similar
Q4 6:12
4TH & 11
OWN 43
0
99.5%
Michael Salgado-Medina punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Mekhi Mews at the HOU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 24FUMBLE
4 plays · 76 yds · 1:341% → 1%
Q4 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
99.3%
Re'Shaun Sanford II run for 1 yd to the HOU 21Similar
Q4 5:34
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+57
99.3%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 57 yds to the ARIZ 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
99.2%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Mekhi Mews for no gain to the ARIZ 22Similar
Q4 4:27
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+18
99.2%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Re'Shaun Sanford II for 18 yds fumbled, recovered by ARIZ Owen Goss O. Goss return for 1 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 25END OF GAME
9 plays · 22 yds · 3:39100% → 100%
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+6
99.6%
Quali Conley run for 6 yds to the ARIZ 11Similar
Q4 3:37
2ND & 4
OWN 11
+3
99.7%
Kedrick Reescano run for 3 yds to the ARIZ 14Similar
Q4 2:53
3RD & 1
OWN 14
+1
99.7%
Kedrick Reescano run for 1 yd to the ARIZ 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
99.7%
Kedrick Reescano run for 6 yds to the ARIZ 21Similar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+3
99.8%
Kedrick Reescano run for 3 yds to the ARIZ 24Similar
Q4 1:51
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+7
99.8%
Kedrick Reescano run for 7 yds to the ARIZ 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
99.8%
(01:17) Kneel down by TEAM at ARIZ29 (team loss of 2), clock 01:11.Similar
Q4 0:36
2ND & 12
OWN 29
-2
99.8%
(00:36) Kneel down by TEAM at ARIZ27 (team loss of 2), clock 00:32.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:01
Noah Fifita pass complete to Quali Conley for 13 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK)
+14
TD · Q3 4:27
Quali Conley run for 50 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK)
+7
FG · Q2 0:42
Jack Martin 49 yd FG GOOD
-6.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com