Try the model
UCF

UCF 31 at Arizona State 35

ASU
2024 · Week 11 · Nov 9, 2024 · Mountain America Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ASU
modelASU aheadUCF aheadconfidence bandkey playASU scoreUCF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:05 · Sam Leavitt pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+25.5+12.80−12.8−25.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 170Home team on offense+24.4Pregame prior+0.0Garbage-time factor+15.9Score differential+0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+3.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:56: Jacurri Brown run for 6 yds for a TD (Grant Reddick KICK) — UCF win probability +8.2 pts (now 60%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:56: Sam Leavitt pass complete to Chamon Metayer for 4 yds for a TD (Parker Lewis KICK) — ASU win probability +13.3 pts (now 55%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q3 0:43: Jordyn Tyson 9 Yd pass from Sam Leavitt (Parker Lewis Kick) — ASU win probability +21.2 pts (now 76%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:04: RJ Harvey 13 Yd Run (Grant Reddick Kick) — UCF win probability +27.9 pts (now 61%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:55: Jordyn Tyson 13 Yd pass from Sam Leavitt (Parker Lewis Kick) — ASU win probability +42.5 pts (now 89%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ASU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8UCF made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 10:29UCF 4th & 5 at ASU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    41.8%−0.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    41.8%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:15ASU 4th & 4 at UCF 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    53.9%−0.8
    34% to make
    Punt
    54.0%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:15ASU 4th & 4 at UCF 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    53.9%−0.8
    34% to make
    Punt
    54.0%−0.7
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:17UCF 4th & 11 at UCF 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.3%−0.7
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:39UCF 4th & 10 at ASU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.1%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.5%
    60% to make
    Punt
    39.9%−2.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:26ASU 4th & 11 at ASU 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.5%−1.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:07UCF 4th & 6 at ASU 35, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    46.7%−0.6
    45% to make
    Punt
    46.0%−1.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:55ASU 4th & 13 at UCF 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.6%−1.9
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    48.4%−2.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    50.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:18UCF 4th & 25 at UCF 48, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.5%−4.8
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:18ASU 4th & 8 at ASU 6, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.8%−2.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.2%
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:24ASU 4th & 19 at ASU 16, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%−6.5
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.0%
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:33UCF 4th & 2 at ASU 29, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 64.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.1%−3.8
    58% to make
    Punt
    47.7%−17.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:18UCF 4th & 2 at UCF 33, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    16.8%−4.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:05ASU 4th & 9 at UCF 22, up 4
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.4 ptsWent for it · 89.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.4%−1.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    89.8%
    72% to make
    Punt
    87.4%−2.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:05ASU 4th & 9 at UCF 22, up 4
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.4 ptsWent for it · 89.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.4%−1.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    89.8%
    72% to make
    Punt
    87.4%−2.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ASU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UCF made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 7:46UCF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:17ASU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:56UCF Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:56ASU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:43ASU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:04UCF Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:55ASU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.0%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCFDrive 1TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 6:5941% → 45%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
59.0%
Dylan Rizk pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 7 yds to the UCF 32Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
58.9%
RJ Harvey run for 4 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
58.9%
Dylan Rizk pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 1 yd to the UCF 37Similar
Q1 13:11
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+18
58.9%
Dylan Rizk pass complete to Trent Whittemore for 18 yds to the ASU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
58.8%
RJ Harvey run for 2 yds to the ASU 43Similar
Q1 12:21
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+3
58.7%
Dylan Rizk pass complete to Jacoby Jones for 3 yds to the ASU 40Similar
Q1 11:52
3RD & 5
OPP 40
-5
58.7%
PENALTY UCF False Start (Rubelt,Paul) 5 yards from ASU40 to ASU45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:40
3RD & 10
OPP 45
-5
58.8%
PENALTY UCF False Start (Jones,Jacoby) 5 yards from ASU45 to ASU50. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:12
3RD & 15
50
+10
58.9%
Dylan Rizk pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 10 yds to the ASU 40Similar
Q1 10:29
4TH & 5
OPP 40
+7
58.8%
Dylan Rizk pass complete to Jacoby Jones for 7 yds to the ASU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
58.4%
RJ Harvey run for 4 yds to the ASU 29Similar
Q1 9:37
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+3
58.3%
Dylan Rizk pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 3 yds to the ASU 26Similar
Q1 9:01
3RD & 3
OPP 26
+13
58.5%
Myles Montgomery run for 13 yds to the ASU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
58.0%
Dylan Rizk pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 5 yds to the ASU 8Similar
Q1 7:46
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+8
55.2%
RJ Harvey run for 8 yds for a TD (Grant Reddick KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 2DOWNS
11 plays · 39 yds · 4:0756% → 55%
Q1 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
56.1%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Chamon Metayer for 4 yds to the ASU 25Similar
Q1 6:55
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+14
56.0%
Kyson Brown run for 14 yds to the ASU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
56.0%
Sam Leavitt run for 5 yds to the ASU 44Similar
Q1 5:52
2ND & 5
OWN 44
0
56.4%
Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Kyson BrownSimilar
Q1 5:37
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+10
55.9%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jake Smith for 10 yds to the UCF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
56.4%
Kyson Brown run for 4 yds to the UCF 42Similar
Q1 4:26
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+3
56.3%
Kyson Brown run for 3 yds to the UCF 39Similar
Q1 3:46
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+1
56.0%
Kyson Brown run for 1 yd to the UCF 40Similar
Q1 3:15
4TH & 4
OPP 40
0
55.2%
Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Jordyn TysonSimilar
Q1 3:15
4TH & 4
OPP 40
0
55.2%
Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Jordyn TysonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 3PUNT TD
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:4447% → 41%
Q1 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
53.1%
Dylan Rizk sacked by Jacob Rich Kongaika for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 39Similar
Q1 2:33
2ND & 11
OWN 39
0
53.1%
Dylan Rizk pass incomplete to Kobe HudsonSimilar
Q1 2:27
3RD & 11
OWN 39
0
53.5%
UCF Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ja'Cari Henderson) declinedSimilar
Q1 2:17
4TH & 11
OWN 39
+46
59.0%
Montana Warren 46 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Parker Lewis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 4FG
15 plays · 47 yds · 4:3142% → 45%
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
58.3%
RJ Harvey run for 1 yd to the UCF 24Similar
Q1 1:33
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+2
58.4%
Dylan Rizk pass complete to RJ Harvey for 2 yds to the UCF 26Similar
Q1 0:42
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+9
58.6%
Dylan Rizk pass complete to Jacoby Jones for 9 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+23
57.5%
Dylan Rizk pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 23 yds to the ASU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
56.3%
RJ Harvey run for 3 yds to the ASU 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+3
56.3%
RJ Harvey run for 3 yds to the ASU 36Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+8
56.3%
Dylan Rizk pass complete to Johnny Richardson for 8 yds to the ASU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
55.6%
PENALTY UCF False Start (Kight,Amari) 5 yards from ASU28 to ASU33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 33
-5
56.1%
PENALTY UCF False Start (Marshall,Marcellus) 5 yards from ASU33 to ASU38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 20
OPP 38
0
56.8%
Dylan Rizk pass incomplete to Jacoby JonesSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 20
OPP 38
+10
57.0%
Dylan Rizk pass complete to Randy Pittman Jr. for 10 yds to the ASU 28Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 28
0
56.6%
Dylan Rizk pass incomplete to Jacoby JonesSimilar
Q2 12:39
4TH & 10
OPP 28
+45
55.5%
Grant Reddick 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 2:0756% → 54%
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
55.8%
Sam Leavitt sacked by Daylan Dotson for a loss of 10 yards to the ASU 15Similar
Q2 11:51
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+4
55.3%
Kyson Brown run for 4 yds to the ASU 19Similar
Q2 11:09
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+5
54.4%
Sam Leavitt run for 5 yds to the ASU 24Similar
Q2 10:26
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
53.8%
Kanyon Floyd punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 6TD
12 plays · 66 yds · 5:2545% → 60%
Q2 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
54.6%
RJ Harvey run for 4 yds to the UCF 38Similar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 6
OWN 38
0
53.4%
RJ Harvey run for no gain to the UCF 38Similar
Q2 9:08
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+10
53.9%
Dylan Rizk pass complete to Jacoby Jones for 10 yds to the UCF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+13
52.9%
Myles Montgomery run for 13 yds to the ASU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
51.4%
Myles Montgomery run for no gain to the ASU 39Similar
Q2 7:29
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+2
51.2%
RJ Harvey run for 2 yds to the ASU 37Similar
Q2 6:56
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+2
51.3%
RJ Harvey run for 2 yds to the ASU 35Similar
Q2 6:07
4TH & 6
OPP 35
+9
52.2%
Dylan Rizk pass complete to Jacoby Jones for 9 yds to the ASU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+19
49.0%
Dylan Rizk pass complete to Randy Pittman Jr. for 19 yds to the ASU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
48.9%
Dylan Rizk run for 1 yd to the ASU 6Similar
Q2 4:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
40.2%
Jacurri Brown run for 6 yds for a TD (Grant Reddick KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 7TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 3:5142% → 55%
Q2 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
41.8%
Sam Leavitt run for 4 yds to the ASU 29Similar
Q2 4:16
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
41.6%
Kyson Brown run for 7 yds to the ASU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+20
41.9%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 20 yds to the UCF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
42.7%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 3 yds to the UCF 47Similar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 13
OPP 47
+15
41.6%
(02:24) No Huddle-Shotgun Leavitt,Sam sacked for loss of 10 yards to the ASU43 (Kelly,Nyjalik) PENALTY UCF Face Mask (Kelly,Nyjalik) 15 yards from UCF47 to UCF32, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
43.4%
PENALTY ASU False Start (Atkins,Joshua) 5 yards from UCF32 to UCF37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 15
OPP 37
+9
39.6%
Kyson Brown run for 9 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+14
40.4%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 14 yds to the UCF 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+8
40.0%
Sam Leavitt run for 8 yds to the UCF 6Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 2
OPP 6
+2
41.3%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Chamon Metayer for 2 yds to the UCF 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
54.6%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Chamon Metayer for 4 yds for a TD (Parker Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 9MISSED FG
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:3151% → 54%
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
48.9%
RJ Harvey run for 3 yds to the UCF 39Similar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+9
47.9%
Dylan Rizk pass complete to Randy Pittman Jr. for 9 yds to the UCF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
47.4%
Dylan Rizk pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:07
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+8
47.5%
Arizona State Penalty, Defensive Offside (Myles Rowser) declinedSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+5
46.6%
(00:07) No Huddle-Shotgun Rizk,Dylan pass complete short left to Harvey,RJ caught at ASU45, for 2 yards to the ASU42 (McCullough,Caleb) PENALTY ASU Offside (Kongaika,Jacob) 5 yards from ASU44 to ASU39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+57
45.9%
Grant Reddick 57 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 2:4453% → 50%
Q3 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
52.8%
Kyson Brown run for 5 yds to the ASU 29Similar
Q3 14:04
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+12
52.8%
Kyson Brown run for 12 yds to the ASU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+17
54.8%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 17 yds to the UCF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-5
55.7%
PENALTY ASU False Start (Iheanachor,Max) 5 yards from UCF42 to UCF47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:42
1ST & 15
OPP 47
+2
53.3%
Kyson Brown run for 2 yds to the UCF 45Similar
Q3 12:07
2ND & 13
OPP 45
0
53.1%
Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Xavier GuillorySimilar
Q3 12:02
3RD & 13
OPP 45
0
51.9%
Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Kyson BrownSimilar
Q3 11:55
4TH & 13
OPP 45
0
49.6%
Kanyon Floyd punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 11PUNT
12 plays · 28 yds · 3:3150% → 50%
Q3 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
50.5%
Dylan Rizk pass incomplete to Kobe HudsonSimilar
Q3 11:38
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
50.8%
RJ Harvey run for 4 yds to the UCF 24Similar
Q3 10:55
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+9
51.5%
Dylan Rizk pass complete to Jacoby Jones for 9 yds to the UCF 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
49.4%
Johnny Richardson run for 4 yds to the UCF 37Similar
Q3 9:50
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+8
47.0%
Myles Montgomery run for 8 yds to the UCF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
46.1%
Dylan Rizk pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:24
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+18
46.6%
RJ Harvey run for 18 yds to the ASU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
45.3%
Dylan Rizk pass incomplete to Kobe HudsonSimilar
Q3 9:02
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
45.3%
Dylan Rizk pass incomplete to Jacoby JonesSimilar
Q3 8:56
3RD & 10
OPP 37
-10
46.0%
Dylan Rizk sacked by Prince Dorbah for a loss of 10 yards to the ASU 47Similar
Q3 8:36
4TH & 20
OPP 47
-5
49.8%
PENALTY UCF False Start (Barr,Ethan) 5 yards from ASU47 to UCF48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:18
4TH & 25
OWN 48
0
49.9%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 12 yds · 0:5150% → 47%
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+2
49.6%
Kyson Brown run for 2 yds to the ASU 6Similar
Q3 7:37
2ND & 8
OWN 6
0
49.3%
Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Jordyn TysonSimilar
Q3 7:31
3RD & 8
OWN 6
0
47.6%
Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Jake SmithSimilar
Q3 7:18
4TH & 8
OWN 6
0
46.9%
Kanyon Floyd punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 13TD
6 plays · 54 yds · 2:0955% → 58%
Q3 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
45.2%
RJ Harvey run for 3 yds to the UCF 49Similar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+20
44.6%
Ja'Varrius Johnson run for 20 yds to the ASU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+10
42.9%
RJ Harvey run for 10 yds to the ASU 21 for a 1ST down Arizona State Penalty, Face Mask (0 yards) (Jordan Crook) to the ASU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
42.3%
RJ Harvey run for 2 yds to the ASU 8Similar
Q3 5:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
42.2%
RJ Harvey 8 Yd Run (Grant Reddick Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 14TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:1051% → 76%
Q3 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
50.8%
Kyson Brown run for 2 yds to the ASU 23Similar
Q3 4:21
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+5
50.4%
Sam Leavitt run for 5 yds to the ASU 28Similar
Q3 3:38
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+29
48.8%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 29 yds to the UCF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
55.3%
UCF Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Sheldon Arnold) to the UCF 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
58.1%
Sam Leavitt run for 8 yds to the UCF 12Similar
Q3 2:07
2ND & 2
OPP 12
+1
58.0%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 1 yd to the UCF 11Similar
Q3 1:20
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+2
55.0%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 2 yds to the UCF 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
76.2%
Jordyn Tyson 9 Yd pass from Sam Leavitt (Parker Lewis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 15TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:3129% → 61%
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
70.7%
RJ Harvey run for 26 yds to the ASU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
66.4%
RJ Harvey run for 1 yd to the ASU 48Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+3
66.7%
RJ Harvey run for 3 yds to the ASU 45Similar
Q4 14:03
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+8
67.1%
Dylan Rizk pass complete to Jacoby Jones for 8 yds to the ASU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+24
66.6%
Dylan Rizk pass complete to Randy Pittman Jr. for 24 yds to the ASU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
38.7%
RJ Harvey 13 Yd Run (Grant Reddick Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -24 yds · 1:3449% → 43%
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
49.0%
Kyson Brown run for 1 yd to the ASU 24Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
46.8%
Sam Leavitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:07
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-8
44.8%
Sam Leavitt sacked by Quadric Bullard for a loss of 8 yards to the ASU 16Similar
Q4 11:24
4TH & 19
OWN 16
0
43.2%
Kanyon Floyd punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 17MISSED FG
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4163% → 64%
Q4 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
37.4%
Dylan Rizk run for 4 yds to the ASU 33Similar
Q4 10:46
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+4
33.1%
RJ Harvey run for 4 yds to the ASU 29Similar
Q4 10:14
3RD & 2
OPP 29
0
34.3%
RJ Harvey run for no gain to the ASU 29Similar
Q4 9:33
4TH & 2
OPP 29
+46
36.4%
Grant Reddick 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 18TD
10 plays · 71 yds · 4:2845% → 89%
Q4 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+15
45.1%
(09:31) No Huddle-Shotgun Leavitt,Sam pass incomplete deep middle to Guillory,Xavier thrown to UCF17 PENALTY UCF Pass Interference (Johnson,Chasen) 15 yards from ASU29 to ASU44, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
48.2%
Kyson Brown run for 1 yd to the ASU 45Similar
Q4 8:31
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+9
47.7%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Xavier Guillory for 9 yds to the UCF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
49.8%
Sam Leavitt pass incomplete to Jake SmithSimilar
Q4 7:48
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+5
49.4%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Kyson Brown for 5 yds to the UCF 41Similar
Q4 7:11
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+7
48.6%
Sam Leavitt run for 7 yds to the UCF 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
50.6%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Kyson Brown for 8 yds to the UCF 26Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 2
OPP 26
+1
50.8%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 1 yd to the UCF 25Similar
Q4 5:23
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+12
46.4%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 12 yds to the UCF 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
88.9%
Jordyn Tyson 13 Yd pass from Sam Leavitt (Parker Lewis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 19DOWNS
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:2424% → 22%
Q4 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
75.7%
Dylan Rizk pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 7 yds to the UCF 32Similar
Q4 4:13
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-8
74.4%
Dylan Rizk sacked by C.J. Fite for a loss of 8 yards to the UCF 24Similar
Q4 3:30
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+9
79.9%
Dylan Rizk pass complete to Jarrad Baker for 9 yds to the UCF 33Similar
Q4 3:18
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+1
77.7%
RJ Harvey run for 1 yd to the UCF 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 20DOWNS
12 plays · 12 yds · 3:0489% → 95%
Q4 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
89.2%
Kyson Brown run for 2 yds to the UCF 32Similar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+7
90.4%
Kyson Brown run for 7 yds to the UCF 25Similar
Q4 1:56
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+2
91.0%
Sam Leavitt run for 2 yds to the UCF 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
94.0%
Kyson Brown run for 2 yds to the UCF 21Similar
Q4 1:43
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+3
94.0%
Kyson Brown run for 3 yds to the UCF 18Similar
Q4 0:47
3RD & 5
OPP 18
+4
95.8%
Sam Leavitt run for 4 yds to the UCF 22Similar
Q4 0:05
4TH & 9
OPP 22
0
94.8%
Sam Leavitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:05
4TH & 9
OPP 22
0
94.8%
Sam Leavitt pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 21END OF GAME
2 plays · 11 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
90.8%
Dylan Rizk pass complete to Jarrad Baker for 11 yds to the UCF 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:55
Jordyn Tyson 13 Yd pass from Sam Leavitt (Parker Lewis Kick)
+42.5
TD · Q4 13:04
RJ Harvey 13 Yd Run (Grant Reddick Kick)
-27.9
TD · Q3 0:43
Jordyn Tyson 9 Yd pass from Sam Leavitt (Parker Lewis Kick)
+21.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com