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ARIZ

Arizona 12 at UCF 56

UCF
2024 · Week 10 · Nov 2, 2024 · FBC Mortgage Stadium
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Win probability · UCF
modelUCF aheadARIZ aheadconfidence bandkey playUCF scoreARIZ score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:00 · Michael Salgado-Medina punt for 39 yds, downed at the UCF 12
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 54Home team on offense+13.1Score differential+9.3Pregame prior+10.3Blowout margin+0.7Garbage-time factor+1.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:38: RJ Harvey run for 17 yds for a TD (Grant Reddick KICK) — UCF win probability +5.6 pts (now 74%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:34: RJ Harvey run for 18 yds for a TD (Grant Reddick KICK) — UCF win probability +7.7 pts (now 86%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:39: Myles Montgomery run for 5 yds for a TD (Grant Reddick KICK) — UCF win probability +5.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:46: Noah Fifita pass complete to Sam Olson for 23 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop PAT MISSED) — ARIZ win probability +6.4 pts (now 10%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 0:00: Dylan Rizk pass complete to Randy Pittman Jr. for 48 yds for a TD (Grant Reddick KICK) — UCF win probability +4.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCF made the numbers' call on 1 of 3ARIZ made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 10:54UCF 4th & 4 at ARIZ 30, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 67.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.1%−0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    67.0%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:59ARIZ 4th & 13 at ARIZ 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.0%−0.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:00ARIZ 4th & 5 at ARIZ 41, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:00ARIZ 4th & 4 at ARIZ 49, down 21
    Close callPunted · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.8%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q3 12:36ARIZ 4th & 30 at ARIZ 5, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.7
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%
    average punt
  6. Q3 2:11ARIZ 4th & 14 at midfield, down 37
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  7. Q4 13:36UCF 4th & 4 at ARIZ 47, up 37
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q4 6:39ARIZ 4th & 10 at UCF 35, down 37
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    45% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 2:07UCF 4th & 2 at ARIZ 5, up 37
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCF made the numbers' call on 8 of 8ARIZ made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 3:58UCF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:38UCF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:34UCF Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:39UCF Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:46ARIZ Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    7.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:00UCF Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 10:01UCF Touchdown, up 35 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 8:02ARIZ Touchdown, down 30 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    0.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    0.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 6:49UCF Touchdown, up 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 1:56UCF Touchdown, up 43 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCFDrive 1MISSED FG
11 plays · 45 yds · 4:0666% → 66%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
66.4%
RJ Harvey run for 1 yd to the UCF 26Similar
Q1 14:34
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+12
66.3%
Dylan Rizk pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 12 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-6
66.3%
Dylan Rizk pass incomplete UCF Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Dylan Rizk) to the UCF 32Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 16
OWN 32
+4
66.3%
Dylan Rizk pass complete to Randy Pittman Jr. for 4 yds fumbled, recovered by UCF Randy Pittman Jr. R. Pittman Jr. return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q1 13:17
3RD & 12
OWN 36
+17
66.2%
Dylan Rizk pass complete to Jacoby Jones for 17 yds to the ARIZ 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
66.5%
RJ Harvey run for 4 yds to the ARIZ 43Similar
Q1 12:28
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+7
66.5%
Johnny Richardson run for 7 yds to the ARIZ 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
66.5%
Dylan Rizk pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:44
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
66.5%
Dylan Rizk pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:39
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+6
66.3%
Dylan Rizk pass complete to RJ Harvey for 6 yds to the ARIZ 30Similar
Q1 10:54
4TH & 4
OPP 30
+48
66.2%
Grant Reddick 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 10 yds · 1:5134% → 34%
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
65.9%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 13 yds to the ARIZ 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
65.5%
Quali Conley run for no gain to the ARIZ 43Similar
Q1 9:38
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-3
65.6%
Quali Conley run for a loss of 3 yards to the ARIZ 40Similar
Q1 9:01
3RD & 13
OWN 40
0
65.8%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:59
4TH & 13
OWN 40
0
65.9%
Michael Salgado-Medina punt for 60 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 3TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 4:5466% → 70%
Q1 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
65.7%
Dylan Rizk pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 9 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q1 8:23
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+23
66.0%
RJ Harvey run for 23 yds to the ARIZ 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
66.3%
RJ Harvey run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:21
2ND & 12
50
+15
65.9%
Arizona Penalty, Personal Foul (Jack Luttrell) to the ARIZ 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
66.5%
Myles Montgomery run for 4 yds to the ARIZ 29Similar
Q1 6:29
2ND & 6
OPP 29
0
66.5%
Dylan Rizk pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:24
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+12
66.2%
Dylan Rizk pass complete to Jacoby Jones for 12 yds to the ARIZ 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
66.5%
RJ Harvey run for 6 yds to the ARIZ 11Similar
Q1 5:08
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+7
66.5%
Dylan Rizk run for 7 yds to the ARIZ 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
66.5%
RJ Harvey run for no gain to the ARIZ 4Similar
Q1 3:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
70.1%
Jacurri Brown run for 4 yds for a TD (Grant Reddick KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 4FUMBLE
1 play · -6 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q1 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-6
68.9%
Quali Conley run for a loss of 6 yards to the ARIZ 17 Quali Conley fumbled, recovered by UCF Ethan Barr E. Barr return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 5TD
1 play · 17 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
74.4%
RJ Harvey run for 17 yds for a TD (Grant Reddick KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:3327% → 26%
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
72.9%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
72.9%
Kedrick Reescano run for 9 yds to the ARIZ 34Similar
Q1 2:47
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
73.0%
Kedrick Reescano run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
72.8%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:10
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+6
72.9%
Kedrick Reescano run for 6 yds to the ARIZ 42Similar
Q1 1:38
3RD & 4
OWN 42
-1
72.9%
Noah Fifita sacked by Malachi Lawrence for a loss of 1 yard to the ARIZ 41Similar
Q1 1:00
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
73.6%
Michael Salgado-Medina punt for 58 yds, downed at the UCF 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 7TD
12 plays · 99 yds · 5:1275% → 86%
Q1 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+13
74.9%
Dylan Rizk pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 13 yds to the UCF 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+18
75.4%
RJ Harvey run for 18 yds to the UCF 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
75.7%
RJ Harvey run for 8 yds to the UCF 40Similar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 2
OWN 40
0
76.5%
Dylan Rizk run for no gain to the UCF 40Similar
Q2 13:56
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+6
76.4%
Myles Montgomery run for 6 yds to the UCF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
77.3%
Myles Montgomery run for 2 yds to the UCF 48Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+17
77.6%
Ja'Varrius Johnson run for 17 yds to the ARIZ 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
77.9%
Dylan Rizk pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+3
77.9%
Dylan Rizk pass complete to Johnny Richardson for 3 yds to the ARIZ 32Similar
Q2 11:41
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+16
77.9%
Dylan Rizk pass complete to Jacoby Jones for 16 yds to the ARIZ 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-2
78.5%
RJ Harvey run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARIZ 18Similar
Q2 10:34
2ND & 12
OPP 18
+18
86.2%
RJ Harvey run for 18 yds for a TD (Grant Reddick KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 38 yds · 2:1014% → 13%
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
86.1%
Kedrick Reescano run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 13Similar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+30
86.3%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 30 yds to the ARIZ 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
86.0%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Chris Hunter for 4 yds to the ARIZ 47Similar
Q2 8:44
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+2
86.1%
Noah Fifita run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 49Similar
Q2 8:07
3RD & 4
OWN 49
0
86.1%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:00
4TH & 4
OWN 49
0
86.6%
Michael Salgado-Medina punt for 39 yds, downed at the UCF 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 9TD
8 plays · 88 yds · 4:1288% → 96%
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-3
88.0%
Dylan Rizk pass complete to Kobe Hudson for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 9Similar
Q2 7:13
2ND & 13
OWN 9
+3
88.6%
RJ Harvey run for 3 yds to the UCF 12Similar
Q2 6:32
3RD & 10
OWN 12
+33
88.9%
Dylan Rizk run for 33 yds to the UCF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+36
90.0%
Dylan Rizk pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 36 yds to the ARIZ 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
90.2%
RJ Harvey run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 17Similar
Q2 4:53
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+8
90.5%
RJ Harvey run for 8 yds to the ARIZ 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
90.9%
Dylan Rizk run for 4 yds to the ARIZ 5Similar
Q2 3:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
96.3%
Myles Montgomery run for 5 yds for a TD (Grant Reddick KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 10TD
11 plays · 78 yds · 2:463% → 10%
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
96.9%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jeremiah Patterson for 2 yds to the ARIZ 24Similar
Q2 3:01
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+13
96.3%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Chris Hunter for 13 yds to the ARIZ 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
96.4%
Noah Fifita run for 4 yds to the ARIZ 41Similar
Q2 2:04
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+16
96.2%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 16 yds to the UCF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
96.4%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
96.5%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:43
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+16
96.7%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 16 yds to the UCF 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
96.2%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+4
96.3%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jeremiah Patterson for 4 yds to the UCF 23Similar
Q2 0:46
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+23
89.9%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Sam Olson for 23 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 11TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 0:4593% → 98%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
93.0%
RJ Harvey run for 8 yds to the UCF 33Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+7
93.1%
Dylan Rizk run for 7 yds to the UCF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
93.3%
Dylan Rizk pass complete to RJ Harvey for 8 yds RJ Harvey fumbled, recovered by UCFSimilar
Q2 0:04
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+4
93.4%
Dylan Rizk run for 4 yds to the ARIZ 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
97.6%
Dylan Rizk pass complete to Randy Pittman Jr. for 48 yds for a TD (Grant Reddick KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -20 yds · 2:222% → 1%
Q3 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
97.8%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Quali Conley for a loss of 3 yards to the ARIZ 22Similar
Q3 14:24
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+1
98.2%
Noah Fifita run for 1 yd to the ARIZ 23Similar
Q3 13:48
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-13
98.3%
Noah Fifita sacked by Ricky Barber for a loss of 13 yards to the ARIZ 10Similar
Q3 12:43
4TH & 25
OWN 10
-5
98.5%
Arizona Penalty, False Start (Chris Hunter) to the ARIZ 5Similar
Q3 12:36
4TH & 30
OWN 5
0
98.6%
Michael Salgado-Medina punt for 71 yds, downed at the UCF 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 13TD
6 plays · 76 yds · 2:3598% → 99%
Q3 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
98.4%
RJ Harvey run for 11 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
98.5%
RJ Harvey run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 33Similar
Q3 11:24
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+7
98.6%
Dylan Rizk pass complete to Randy Pittman Jr. for 7 yds to the UCF 40Similar
Q3 10:54
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+15
98.9%
Arizona Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Tacario Davis) to the ARIZ 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
98.9%
(10:32) QB Keeper RIZK, Dylan rush to the left for no gain to the ARIZ24 (LOLESIO, Dominic), clock 10:27. PENALTY ARIZ Offsides on DARTON, Kevon enforced 5 yards from the ARIZ24 to the ARIZ19 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 10:01
1ST & 5
OPP 19
+19
99.1%
RJ Harvey run for 19 yds for a TD (Grant Reddick KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 14TD
7 plays · 60 yds · 1:541% → 1%
Q3 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
99.1%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Sam Olson for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
50
-5
99.1%
Arizona Penalty, False Start (Michael Wooten) to the ARIZ 45Similar
Q3 9:31
1ST & 15
OWN 45
0
99.1%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:27
2ND & 15
OWN 45
+4
99.2%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Quali Conley for 4 yds to the ARIZ 49Similar
Q3 8:58
3RD & 11
OWN 49
+45
99.2%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Chris Hunter for 45 yds to the UCF 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
99.0%
Quali Conley run for 4 yds to the UCF 2Similar
Q3 8:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
98.6%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 2 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 15TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:1299% → 99%
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.3%
Arizona Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Stanley Ta'ufo'ou) to the UCF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
99.4%
Dylan Rizk pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:37
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+16
99.4%
RJ Harvey run for 16 yds to the ARIZ 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
99.4%
Dylan Rizk pass complete to Jacoby Jones for 40 yds for a TD (Grant Reddick KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 16PUNT
10 plays · 26 yds · 4:331% → 0%
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
99.5%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:33
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+6
99.5%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Chris Hunter for 6 yds to the ARIZ 30Similar
Q3 5:55
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+10
99.5%
(05:55) FIFITA, Noah pass to the left incomplete intended for MCMILLAN, Tetairoa thrown to the ARIZ38, clock 05:52. PENALTY UCF Holding on ARNOLD, II, Sheldon enforced 10 yards from the ARIZ30 to the ARIZ40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
99.5%
Quali Conley run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 42Similar
Q3 5:26
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+3
99.6%
Quali Conley run for 3 yds to the ARIZ 45Similar
Q3 4:52
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+9
99.6%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Chris Hunter for 9 yds to the UCF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-4
99.6%
Kedrick Reescano run for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 3:31
2ND & 14
50
+7
99.7%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 7 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q3 2:51
3RD & 7
OPP 43
-7
99.7%
Noah Fifita sacked by Malachi Lawrence for a loss of 7 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 2:11
4TH & 14
50
0
99.7%
Michael Salgado-Medina punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Trent Whittemore at the UCF 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 40 yds · 3:30100% → 100%
Q3 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+18
99.6%
RJ Harvey run for 18 yds to the UCF 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
99.7%
Jacurri Brown run for 1 yd to the UCF 32 Jacurri Brown fumbled, recovered by UCF Jacurri Brown J. Brown return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q3 0:54
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+15
99.7%
(00:54) HARVEY, RJ rush to the left for a gain of 1 yard to the UCF33 (JOHNSON, Isaiah), clock 00:47. PENALTY ARIZ Face mask on JOHNSON, Isaiah enforced 15 yards from the UCF32 to the UCF47 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
99.7%
Myles Montgomery run for 2 yds to the UCF 49Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+5
99.7%
Johnny Richardson run for 5 yds to the ARIZ 46Similar
Q4 14:19
3RD & 3
OPP 46
-1
99.8%
RJ Harvey run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARIZ 47Similar
Q4 13:36
4TH & 4
OPP 47
0
99.8%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Patterson at the ARIZ 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 18DOWNS
14 plays · 50 yds · 6:520% → 0%
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+1
99.8%
Kedrick Reescano run for 1 yd to the ARIZ 8Similar
Q4 12:52
2ND & 9
OWN 8
+21
99.9%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jeremiah Patterson for 21 yds to the ARIZ 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
99.8%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Kedrick Reescano for 7 yds to the ARIZ 36Similar
Q4 11:39
2ND & 3
OWN 36
-2
99.9%
Quali Conley run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARIZ 34Similar
Q4 11:03
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+14
99.9%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Chris Hunter for 14 yds to the ARIZ 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
99.9%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Kedrick Reescano for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 9:54
2ND & 8
50
+4
99.9%
Kedrick Reescano run for 4 yds to the UCF 46Similar
Q4 9:17
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+11
99.9%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Chris Hunter for 11 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
99.9%
Montana Lemonious-Craig run for 5 yds to the UCF 30Similar
Q4 8:21
2ND & 5
OPP 30
-5
99.9%
Arizona Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the UCF 35Similar
Q4 8:03
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-4
99.9%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Quali Conley for a loss of 4 yards to the UCF 39Similar
Q4 7:22
3RD & 14
OPP 39
+4
99.9%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jeremiah Patterson for 4 yds to the UCF 35Similar
Q4 6:39
4TH & 10
OPP 35
-8
99.9%
Noah Fifita sacked by Nyjalik Kelly and Ricky Barber for a loss of 8 yards to the UCF 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 19TD
12 plays · 57 yds · 4:35100% → 100%
Q4 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+13
99.9%
Dylan Rizk pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 13 yds to the ARIZ 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+20
99.9%
Dylan Rizk pass complete to Randy Pittman Jr. for 20 yds to the ARIZ 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+11
99.9%
RJ Harvey run for 11 yds to the ARIZ 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
99.9%
Myles Montgomery run for 8 yds to the ARIZ 5Similar
Q4 4:09
2ND & 2
OPP 5
-10
99.9%
(04:09) MONTGOMERY, Myles rush to the left for a gain of 4 yards to the ARIZ1 (KENNEDY, Chase), clock 04:04. PENALTY UCF Holding on MEDLEY, Adrian enforced 10 yards from the ARIZ5 to the ARIZ15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 3:38
2ND & 12
OPP 15
-5
99.9%
UCF Penalty, False Start (Kobe Hudson) to the ARIZ 20Similar
Q4 3:37
2ND & 17
OPP 20
+4
99.9%
Myles Montgomery run for 4 yds to the ARIZ 16Similar
Q4 2:57
3RD & 13
OPP 16
+11
100.0%
Dylan Rizk pass complete to Kylan Fox for 11 yds to the ARIZ 5Similar
Q4 2:07
4TH & 2
OPP 5
+4
100.0%
Jacurri Brown run for 4 yds to the ARIZ 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
100.0%
Dylan Rizk pass complete to Randy Pittman Jr. for 1 yd for a TD (Grant Reddick KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 20END OF 4TH QUARTER
3 plays · 4 yds · 1:260% → 0%
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
100.0%
Kedrick Reescano run for no gain to the ARIZ 25Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
100.0%
Brandon Johnson run for 3 yds to the ARIZ 28Similar
Q4 0:28
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+1
100.0%
Kayden Luke run for 1 yd to the ARIZ 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:34
RJ Harvey run for 18 yds for a TD (Grant Reddick KICK)
+7.7
TD · Q2 0:46
Noah Fifita pass complete to Sam Olson for 23 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop PAT MISSED)
-6.4
TD · Q1 3:38
RJ Harvey run for 17 yds for a TD (Grant Reddick KICK)
+5.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com