2024 · Week 10 · Nov 2, 2024 · TDECU Stadium
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Win probability · HOU
modelHOU aheadKSU aheadconfidence bandkey playHOU scoreKSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Avery Johnson pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 14:56: Donovan Smith run for 1 yd for a TD (Jack Martin KICK) — HOU win probability +4.8 pts (now 36%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:48: DJ Giddens run for 2 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant PAT BLOCKED) — KSU win probability +9.2 pts (now 64%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:09: Avery Johnson pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 7 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK) — KSU win probability +13.2 pts (now 77%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 10:58: Zeon Chriss pass complete to Maliq Carr for 1 yd for a TD (Jack Martin KICK) — HOU win probability +21.2 pts (now 44%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
- TD · Q4 2:31: Zeon Chriss run for 41 yds for a TD (Jack Martin KICK) — HOU win probability +50.4 pts (now 90%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
HOU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9KSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
- Q1 8:12KSU 4th & 4 at HOU 5, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 73.5% before the snapGo for it73.5%40% to convertField goalTheir call73.5%−0.192% to makePunt72.6%−1.0average punt
- Q1 4:19HOU 4th & 14 at HOU 34, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.9% before the snapGo for it26.7%−0.518% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call27.2%average punt
- Q1 2:19KSU 4th & 18 at KSU 9, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.7% before the snapGo for it69.9%−0.911% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call70.8%average punt
- Q1 0:11HOU 4th & 2 at KSU 45, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call30.0%57% to convertField goal28.9%−1.025% to makePunt29.4%−0.6average punt
- Q2 14:03KSU 4th & 10 at KSU 15, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.3% before the snapGo for it64.6%−0.928% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call65.5%average punt
- Q2 8:37HOU 4th & 4 at KSU 4, up 4Close callKicked a field goal · 37.9% before the snapGo for it38.0%40% to convertField goalTheir call37.6%−0.493% to makePunt33.2%−4.8average punt
- Q2 3:32KSU 4th & 3 at HOU 23, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call53.6%52% to convertField goal53.1%−0.570% to makePunt47.1%−6.5average punt
- Q3 13:05HOU 4th & 15 at HOU 20, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.7% before the snapGo for it26.3%−2.116% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call28.4%average punt
- Q3 9:13KSU 4th & 6 at HOU 35, up 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call74.4%40% to convertField goal73.7%−0.745% to makePunt72.7%−1.7average punt
- Q3 7:21HOU 4th & 1 at KSU 46, down 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call32.5%70% to convertField goal26.7%−5.923% to makePunt29.0%−3.5average punt
- Q3 5:50KSU 4th & 12 at KSU 45, up 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.6% before the snapGo for it70.3%−2.423% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call72.8%average punt
- Q3 1:53HOU 4th & 12 at HOU 49, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.1% before the snapGo for it27.9%−2.123% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.1%average punt
- Q3 0:00KSU 4th & 16 at HOU 29, up 6Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.4% before the snapGo for it70.3%−3.615% to convertField goalTheir call73.9%58% to makePunt65.0%−8.9average punt
- Q4 13:10HOU 4th & 10 at HOU 25, down 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.3% before the snapGo for it17.5%−2.528% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.0%average punt
- Q4 8:04KSU 4th & 4 at KSU 43, up 2Close callPunted · 62.0% before the snapGo for it62.9%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call62.4%−0.5average punt
- Q4 4:36HOU 4th & 6 at HOU 46, down 2Numbers favored go for it by 2.7 ptsPunted · 39.8% before the snapGo for it36.3%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.6%−2.7average punt
- Q4 2:49KSU 4th & 13 at KSU 16, up 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.4% before the snapGo for it55.7%−12.919% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call68.7%average punt
- Q4 0:45HOU 4th & 2 at KSU 46, up 5Close callPunted · 92.7% before the snapGo for it92.7%57% to convertField goal91.7%−0.923% to makePuntTheir call91.9%−0.8average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HOU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3KSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q2 14:56HOU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call33.4%97% to makeGo for two33.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:48KSU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call59.3%97% to makeGo for two59.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:09KSU Touchdown, up 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call71.6%97% to makeGo for two71.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:58HOU Touchdown, down 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call35.9%97% to makeGo for two35.6%−0.345% to convert
- Q4 2:31HOU Touchdown, up 4 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call77.7%−0.997% to makeGo for two78.6%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartKSUDrive 1FG15 plays · 70 yds · 6:4875% → 73%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
24.9%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 3 yds to the KSU 28Similar
Q1 13:38
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
25.5%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jadon Jackson for 6 yds to the KSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:32
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+12
26.0%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 12 yds to the KSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:08
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+6
26.7%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jadon Jackson for 6 yds to the HOU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+11
27.0%
Houston Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (A.J. Haulcy) to the HOU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 2PUNT7 plays · 9 yds · 3:4828% → 28%
KSUDrive 3PUNT4 plays · -8 yds · 1:5271% → 69%
HOUDrive 4TD5 plays · 53 yds · 2:1631% → 36%
KSUDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:4866% → 64%
Q2 14:03
4TH & 10
OWN 15
+4
36.1%
Simon McClannan punt for 48 yds , Mekhi Mews returns for 4 yds to the HOU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 6FG9 plays · 55 yds · 5:1636% → 44%
Q2 13:17
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+6
35.7%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Re'Shaun Sanford II for 6 yds to the HOU 47Similar
Q2 12:34
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+33
36.5%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Devan Williams for 33 yds to the KSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:12
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+8
38.8%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Jonah Wilson for 8 yds to the KSU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-4
39.4%
Zeon Chriss sacked by Austin Moore and Desmond Purnell for a loss of 4 yards to the KSU 14Similar
Q2 9:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
+8
39.6%
Joseph Manjack IV pass complete to Zeon Chriss for 8 yds to the KSU 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 7TD17 plays · 71 yds · 6:3857% → 64%
Q2 7:50
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+10
44.6%
(07:50) JOHNSON, Avery pass deep to the right incomplete intended for GIDDENS, DJ thrown to the HOU36, clock 07:43. PENALTY HOU Holding on HAULCY, A.J. enforced 10 yards from the KSU33 to the KSU43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
43.5%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Will Anciaux for 3 yds to the KSU 46Similar
Q2 6:30
3RD & 3
50
+8
43.8%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jayce Brown for 8 yds to the HOU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:32
4TH & 3
OPP 23
+6
47.2%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Garrett Oakley for 6 yds to the HOU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:49
1ST & 15
OPP 22
+5
45.3%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Dylan Edwards for 5 yds to the HOU 17Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 7
OPP 14
+12
45.3%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jadon Jackson for 12 yds to the HOU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 8FUMBLE4 plays · 23 yds · 1:0343% → 47%
Q2 0:45
2ND & 6
OPP 40
-12
46.7%
Zeon Chriss sacked for a loss of 12 yards to the HOU 48 Zeon Chriss fumbled, recovered by KSU Desmond Purnell , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 9TD6 plays · 48 yds · 0:2862% → 77%
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+26
38.3%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 26 yds to the HOU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 9
OPP 21
+14
38.4%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Garrett Oakley for 14 yds to the HOU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
23.4%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 7 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 10END OF HALF1 play · -2 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
27.8%
(00:09) [NH] Kneel down by CHRISS, Zeon at HOU23 (team loss of 2), clock 00:04.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 11PUNT4 plays · -5 yds · 1:5430% → 29%
KSUDrive 12DOWNS7 plays · 17 yds · 3:4674% → 73%
HOUDrive 13DOWNS5 plays · 8 yds · 1:5133% → 31%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 14PUNT4 plays · -2 yds · 1:2776% → 72%
HOUDrive 15PUNT8 plays · 22 yds · 3:4829% → 27%
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
29.2%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Mekhi Mews for 12 yds to the HOU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-5
33.1%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Mekhi Mews for a loss of 5 yards to the HOU 46Similar
Q3 1:53
4TH & 12
OWN 49
0
27.2%
Liam Dougherty punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Dylan Edwards at the KSU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 16FG6 plays · 55 yds · 1:5075% → 80%
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+61
25.2%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jayce Brown for 61 yds to the HOU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-10
20.7%
(01:15) GIDDENS, DJ rush to the left for a gain of 3 yards to the HOU20 (MACK, Brandon), out of bounds, clock 01:11. PENALTY KSU Illegal Block in the Back on JOHNSON, Keagan enforced 10 yards from the HOU23 to the HOU33 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 17PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 1:5019% → 17%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 18INT2 plays · 2 yds · 0:2580% → 80%
HOUDrive 19TD3 plays · 9 yds · 1:1822% → 44%
KSUDrive 20PUNT6 plays · 18 yds · 2:5465% → 64%
Q4 8:22
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+2
32.8%
Avery Johnson pass complete to DJ Giddens for 2 yds DJ Giddens fumbled, recovered by KSUSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 21PUNT7 plays · 16 yds · 3:2940% → 34%
Q4 6:48
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+5
40.8%
(06:48) QB Keeper CHRISS, Zeon rush up the middle for no gain to the HOU37 (ILALIO, Damian), clock 06:43. PENALTY KSU Offsides on MOORE, Austin enforced 5 yards from the HOU37 to the HOU42 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 22PUNT6 plays · -3 yds · 1:4871% → 60%
Q4 3:16
3RD & 11
OWN 18
+3
28.9%
Avery Johnson pass complete to DJ Giddens for 3 yds to the KSU 21Similar
Q4 2:49
4TH & 13
OWN 16
0
29.9%
Simon McClannan punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Mekhi Mews at the HOU 44Similar
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
39.9%
(02:43) CHRISS, Zeon pass deep to the right incomplete intended for WILSON, Jonah thrown to the KSU32, clock 02:38. PENALTY KSU Pass Interference on GARBER, Keenan enforced 15 yards to the KSU41 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 23TD1 play · 56 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 24INT5 plays · 13 yds · 0:3825% → 27%
HOUDrive 25PUNT7 plays · 8 yds · 0:5694% → 89%
Q4 0:45
4TH & 2
OPP 46
+13
88.6%
Liam Dougherty punt for 45 yds , Dylan Edwards returns for 13 yds to the KSU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 26END OF 4TH QUARTER8 plays · 47 yds · 0:3525% → 35%
Q4 0:27
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+11
74.8%
Avery Johnson pass complete to DJ Giddens for 11 yds to the KSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
75.2%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jayce Brown for 17 yds to the KSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:08
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+19
71.3%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 19 yds to the HOU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:31
Zeon Chriss run for 41 yds for a TD (Jack Martin KICK)
+50.4
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+34.7
TD · Q4 10:58
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Maliq Carr for 1 yd for a TD (Jack Martin KICK)
+21.2