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TCU

TCU 34 at Baylor 37

BAY
2024 · Week 10 · Nov 2, 2024 · McLane Stadium
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Win probability · BAY
modelBAY aheadTCU aheadconfidence bandkey playBAY scoreTCU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of GameFG-3.1BAY 58.4%Kyle Lemmermann 46 yd FG GOODAWAY 10 - HOME 13 · Q2 5:18
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:18 · Kyle Lemmermann 46 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+25.5+12.80−12.8−25.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 73Home team on offense−0.3Pregame prior+3.3Score differential+0.4Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.9Blowout margin+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 0:23: Savion Williams pass complete to Jack Bech for 6 yds for a TD (Kyle Lemmermann KICK) — TCU win probability +19.2 pts (now 71%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 14:03: Bryson Washington run for 35 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK) — BAY win probability +29.6 pts (now 64%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 4:54: Bryson Washington run for 1 yd for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK) — BAY win probability +25.7 pts (now 93%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:55: Josh Hoover pass complete to Jack Bech for 24 yds for a TD (Kyle Lemmermann KICK) — TCU win probability +42.6 pts (now 61%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: Isaiah Hankins 33 yd FG GOOD — BAY win probability +28.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: BAY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BAY made the numbers' call on 5 of 6TCU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 13:39TCU 4th & 4 at TCU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.7%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:39TCU 4th & 4 at TCU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.7%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:43BAY 4th & 17 at TCU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.1%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    58.2%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    58.3%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:45TCU 4th & 5 at TCU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.2%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:46BAY 4th & 17 at BAY 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.5%−1.0
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:41TCU 4th & 10 at TCU 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.2%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:18TCU 4th & 9 at BAY 28, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.0%−0.5
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.5%
    60% to make
    Punt
    29.8%−4.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:26BAY 4th & 10 at BAY 25, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.5%−1.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:44BAY 4th & 20 at BAY 15, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.0%−4.4
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:04TCU 4th & 13 at BAY 29, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.3%−2.6
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.9%
    58% to make
    Punt
    42.5%−8.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:23TCU 4th & 2 at BAY 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    45.0%−3.0
    91% to make
    Punt
    30.0%−18.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:22TCU 4th & 2 at BAY 46, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.5 ptsPunted · 48.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    39.3%−9.8
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    44.6%−4.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:50BAY 4th & 2 at TCU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    55.4%−5.0
    58% to make
    Punt
    39.5%−20.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:00TCU 4th & 3 at BAY 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    7.2%−4.0
    32% to make
    Punt
    6.5%−4.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:12BAY 4th & 9 at TCU 44, tied
    Numbers favored field goal by 4.2 ptsWent for it · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.1%−4.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    61.3%
    27% to make
    Punt
    55.1%−6.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BAY made the numbers' call on 5 of 5TCU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 6:42TCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:48BAY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:41BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    65.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:50TCU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:09BAY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:23TCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:03BAY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:54BAY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.6%−1.6
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:55TCU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.0%−2.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TCUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:0844% → 44%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
55.7%
Josh Hoover pass complete to JP Richardson for 3 yds to the TCU 28Similar
Q1 14:24
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
55.7%
Savion Williams run for 3 yds to the TCU 31Similar
Q1 13:53
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
55.7%
Josh Hoover pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:39
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+8
55.8%
Ethan Craw punt for 56 yds , Josh Cameron returns for 8 yds to the BAY 21Similar
Q1 13:39
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+8
55.8%
Ethan Craw punt for 56 yds , Josh Cameron returns for 8 yds to the BAY 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 2PUNT
11 plays · 49 yds · 3:4356% → 56%
Q1 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
55.8%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Hal Presley for 6 yds to the BAY 16Similar
Q1 13:14
2ND & 4
OWN 16
+3
55.8%
Bryson Washington run for 3 yds to the BAY 19Similar
Q1 12:46
3RD & 1
OWN 19
+5
55.7%
Bryson Washington run for 5 yds to the BAY 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+10
55.8%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Bryson Washington for 10 yds to the BAY 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+17
55.9%
Bryson Washington run for 17 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
56.3%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 15 yds to the TCU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
56.5%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 2 yds to the TCU 32Similar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 8
OPP 32
0
56.6%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:26
3RD & 8
OPP 32
-9
56.4%
Sawyer Robertson sacked by Johnny Hodges for a loss of 9 yards to the TCU 41Similar
Q1 9:43
4TH & 17
OPP 41
0
55.8%
Palmer Williams punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 3TD
7 plays · 95 yds · 2:5144% → 49%
Q1 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
56.1%
Trent Battle run for 2 yds to the TCU 7Similar
Q1 9:08
2ND & 8
OWN 7
+7
56.1%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Savion Williams for 7 yds to the TCU 14Similar
Q1 8:37
3RD & 1
OWN 14
+6
56.2%
Trent Battle run for 6 yds to the TCU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+28
55.9%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Savion Williams for 28 yds to the TCU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
55.2%
Trent Battle run for 4 yds to the BAY 48Similar
Q1 6:59
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+40
55.0%
Josh Hoover pass complete to DJ Rogers for 40 yds to the BAY 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
51.5%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jordyn Bailey for 8 yds for a TD (Kyle Lemmermann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 4TD
12 plays · 65 yds · 4:4853% → 58%
Q1 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
52.6%
Bryson Washington run for 6 yds to the BAY 41Similar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+11
53.1%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 11 yds to the TCU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
53.2%
Bryson Washington run for 2 yds to the TCU 46Similar
Q1 4:58
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+4
53.1%
Bryson Washington run for 4 yds to the TCU 42Similar
Q1 4:48
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+5
52.9%
Bryson Washington run for 5 yds to the TCU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+16
53.0%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Michael Trigg for 16 yds to the TCU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
53.3%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 3 yds to the TCU 18Similar
Q1 2:59
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+6
53.2%
Sawyer Robertson run for 6 yds to the TCU 12Similar
Q1 2:15
3RD & 1
OPP 12
+4
52.3%
Bryson Washington run for 4 yds to the TCU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
58.2%
Bryson Washington run for 8 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 2:5545% → 45%
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
55.4%
(01:47) Shotgun Hoover,Josh pass complete short right to Richardson,JP caught at TCU30, for 5 yards to the TCU30 (Jenkins,Caden) PENALTY TCU Holding (Strickland,Remington) 10 yards from TCU25 to TCU15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:02
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+12
55.5%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Savion Williams for 12 yds to the TCU 27Similar
Q1 0:37
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
55.3%
Savion Williams run for 7 yds to the TCU 34Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
54.8%
Josh Hoover run for 2 yds to the TCU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
54.8%
Cam Cook run for 1 yd to the TCU 37Similar
Q2 14:16
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+4
54.9%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Drake Dabney for 4 yds to the TCU 41Similar
Q2 13:53
3RD & 5
OWN 41
0
54.3%
Josh Hoover pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:45
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
55.4%
Ethan Craw punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BAY 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 5 yds · 1:5557% → 55%
Q2 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
56.5%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:32
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
56.4%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Gavin Yates for 5 yds to the BAY 30Similar
Q2 12:55
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+7
56.1%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 7 yds to the BAY 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
57.2%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 3 yds to the BAY 40Similar
Q2 12:02
2ND & 7
OWN 40
-10
58.0%
(12:10) No Huddle-Shotgun Robertson,Sawyer pass incomplete deep right to Hawkins,Ashtyn thrown to TCU40 PENALTY BU Holding (Barrington,Campbell) 10 yards from BU40 to BU30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:57
2ND & 17
OWN 30
0
56.4%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:53
3RD & 17
OWN 30
0
55.6%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:46
4TH & 17
OWN 30
0
55.1%
Palmer Williams punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TCU 19 , JP Richardson returns for no gain to the TCU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5945% → 43%
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
55.3%
Josh Hoover pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:33
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
55.5%
Cam Cook run for no gain to the TCU 19Similar
Q2 10:54
3RD & 10
OWN 19
0
56.2%
Josh Hoover pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:41
4TH & 10
OWN 19
+14
56.8%
Ethan Craw punt for 59 yds , Josh Cameron returns for 14 yds to the BAY 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 8TD
6 plays · 64 yds · 1:5457% → 66%
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
57.4%
Bryson Washington run for 3 yds to the BAY 39Similar
Q2 10:02
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+9
58.2%
Sawyer Robertson run for 9 yds to the BAY 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
58.9%
Bryson Washington run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 8:50
2ND & 8
50
+10
59.1%
(08:56) No Huddle-Shotgun Robertson,Sawyer pass incomplete deep middle to Presley,Hal thrown to TCU05 PENALTY TCU Holding (Broughton,JaTravis) 10 yards from BU50 to TCU40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
65.6%
Bryson Washington run for 40 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins PAT MISSED)Similar
Q2 8:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
65.7%
PENALTY BU False Start (Lengyel,Ryan) 5 yards from TCU03 to TCU08. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 9FG
10 plays · 47 yds · 3:1638% → 42%
Q2 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
61.6%
Savion Williams run for 14 yds to the TCU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+17
61.0%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jack Bech for 17 yds to the BAY 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
59.6%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Savion Williams for 3 yds to the BAY 41Similar
Q2 7:14
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+12
59.8%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Savion Williams for 12 yds to the BAY 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
58.5%
JP Richardson run for 3 yds to the BAY 26Similar
Q2 5:58
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+3
58.5%
Savion Williams run for 3 yds to the BAY 23Similar
Q2 5:23
3RD & 4
OPP 23
0
59.9%
Josh Hoover pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:23
4TH & 4
OPP 23
-5
61.5%
PENALTY TCU Delay Of Game 5 yards from BU23 to BU28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:18
4TH & 9
OPP 28
+46
58.4%
Kyle Lemmermann 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:4661% → 59%
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
60.5%
Richard Reese run for no gain to the BAY 25Similar
Q2 4:41
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
60.2%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:34
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
59.4%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:26
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
58.5%
Palmer Williams punt for 43 yds, fair catch by JP Richardson at the TCU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 11TD
14 plays · 68 yds · 3:2541% → 52%
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
58.8%
Josh Hoover run for 3 yds to the TCU 35Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 7
OWN 35
0
58.6%
Josh Hoover pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:53
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+12
59.5%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 12 yds to the TCU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+10
57.0%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Drake Dabney for 10 yds to the BAY 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
56.5%
Jeremy Payne run for 4 yds to the BAY 39Similar
Q2 2:29
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+2
55.9%
Jeremy Payne run for 2 yds to the BAY 37Similar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+5
55.7%
Jeremy Payne run for 5 yds to the BAY 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
54.7%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jack Bech for 15 yds to the BAY 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+16
54.0%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jeremy Payne for 16 yds for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
57.5%
Josh Hoover run for no gain to the BAY 1Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
47.9%
Josh Hoover run for 1 yd for a TD (Kyle Lemmermann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 12Uncategorized
8 plays · 46 yds · 0:3847% → 50%
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+12
47.2%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Bryson Washington for 12 yds to the BAY 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
47.7%
Sawyer Robertson run for 11 yds to the BAY 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
49.7%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Michael Trigg for 4 yds to the BAY 48Similar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+15
50.6%
(00:22) No Huddle-Shotgun Robertson,Sawyer pass incomplete deep left to Presley,Hal thrown to TCU20 PENALTY TCU Pass Interference (Canada,Channing) 15 yards from BU48 to TCU37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
51.2%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
50.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+4
49.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Michael Trigg for 4 yds to the TCU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · -10 yds · 1:1149% → 47%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
49.4%
Bryson Washington run for 1 yd to the BAY 26Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
49.2%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:23
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-6
47.9%
Sawyer Robertson sacked by Devean Deal for a loss of 6 yards to the BAY 20Similar
Q3 13:56
4TH & 15
OWN 20
-5
47.0%
PENALTY BU False Start (White,Josh) 5 yards from BU20 to BU15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:44
4TH & 20
OWN 15
+5
47.0%
Palmer Williams punt for 62 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TCU 28 , JP Richardson returns for 5 yds to the TCU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 14FG
9 plays · 43 yds · 4:3353% → 62%
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
47.2%
Savion Williams run for no gain to the TCU 28Similar
Q3 12:57
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+36
47.7%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jack Bech for 36 yds to the BAY 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
44.5%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Savion Williams for 6 yds to the BAY 30Similar
Q3 11:53
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+4
42.9%
Trent Battle run for 4 yds to the BAY 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
42.7%
Trent Battle run for 1 yd to the BAY 25Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 9
OPP 25
-5
42.9%
(10:57) No Huddle-Shotgun Hoover,Josh pass complete short right to Bech,Jack caught at BU21, for 5 yards to the BU20 (Williams IV,Carl) PENALTY TCU Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Deery,Coltin) 5 yards from BU25 to BU30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:03
2ND & 14
OPP 30
+2
43.8%
Cam Cook run for 2 yds to the BAY 32 Cam Cook fumbled, recovered by TCU Cam CookSimilar
Q3 9:39
3RD & 16
OPP 32
+3
45.8%
Josh Hoover run for 3 yds to the BAY 29Similar
Q3 9:04
4TH & 13
OPP 29
+47
37.9%
Kyle Lemmermann 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 15TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:4739% → 63%
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
39.1%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
38.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:39
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+10
37.5%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Hal Presley for 10 yds to the BAY 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
39.5%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 11 yds to the BAY 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
41.6%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 6 yds to the TCU 48Similar
Q3 7:26
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+1
42.9%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 1 yd to the TCU 49Similar
Q3 6:47
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+40
41.6%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 40 yds to the TCU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
44.1%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 8 yds to the TCU 1Similar
Q3 5:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
44.0%
PENALTY BU False Start offsetting TCU Illegal Substitution offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
63.0%
Dawson Pendergrass run for 1 yd for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)Similar
Q3 5:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
63.0%
PENALTY BU False Start (Hankins,Isaiah) 5 yards from TCU03 to TCU08. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 16TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:3746% → 71%
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
53.6%
Savion Williams run for 22 yds to the TCU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
49.8%
Jeremy Payne run for 1 yd to the TCU 46Similar
Q3 4:01
2ND & 11
OWN 46
+15
51.3%
Baylor Penalty, (15 Yards) to the BAY 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+10
49.1%
Baylor Penalty, (10 Yards) to the BAY 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+16
47.6%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 16 yds to the BAY 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
47.0%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jeremy Payne for 5 yds to the BAY 9Similar
Q3 1:49
2ND & 5
OPP 9
0
46.9%
Jeremy Payne run for no gain to the BAY 9Similar
Q3 1:05
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+3
48.6%
Savion Williams run for 3 yds to the BAY 6Similar
Q3 0:23
4TH & 2
OPP 6
+6
29.3%
Savion Williams pass complete to Jack Bech for 6 yds for a TD (Kyle Lemmermann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 17TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:0833% → 64%
Q3 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
32.7%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 7 yds to the BAY 32Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
35.0%
Bryson Washington run for no gain to the BAY 32Similar
Q4 14:47
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+6
32.4%
Sawyer Robertson run for 6 yds to the BAY 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+27
34.0%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 27 yds to the TCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
63.7%
Bryson Washington run for 35 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 3:2047% → 49%
Q4 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
53.2%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jeremy Payne for 1 yd to the TCU 26Similar
Q4 13:17
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+10
53.2%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jordyn Bailey for 10 yds to the TCU 36 for a 1ST down Baylor Penalty, (Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
51.5%
(12:59) No Huddle-Shotgun Williams,Savion rush right for 0 yards to the TCU36 (Jones,Matt) PENALTY TCU Holding (Bruno,Carson) 10 yards from TCU36 to TCU26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:26
1ST & 20
OWN 26
+20
53.1%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Eric McAlister for 20 yds to the TCU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
48.8%
Josh Hoover pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:51
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+4
49.9%
Jeremy Payne run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:01
3RD & 6
50
+4
48.4%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jeremy Payne for 4 yds to the BAY 46Similar
Q4 10:22
4TH & 2
OPP 46
0
50.7%
Ethan Craw punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Josh Cameron at the BAY 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 19TD
14 plays · 81 yds · 5:2158% → 93%
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
57.5%
Bryson Washington run for 6 yds to the BAY 25Similar
Q4 9:51
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+10
58.3%
Bryson Washington run for 10 yds to the BAY 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
58.4%
Bryson Washington run for 1 yd to the BAY 36Similar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+13
58.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Hal Presley for 13 yds to the BAY 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+14
62.6%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 14 yds to the TCU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
63.5%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:58
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+3
63.3%
Sawyer Robertson run for 3 yds to the TCU 34Similar
Q4 7:23
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+5
62.9%
Bryson Washington run for 5 yds to the TCU 29Similar
Q4 6:50
4TH & 2
OPP 29
+3
62.2%
Sawyer Robertson run for 3 yds to the TCU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+12
67.2%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Michael Trigg for 12 yds to the TCU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+8
67.2%
Bryson Washington run for 8 yds to the TCU 6Similar
Q4 5:22
2ND & 2
OPP 6
+5
67.3%
Sawyer Robertson run for 5 yds to the TCU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.0%
Bryson Washington run for 1 yd for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 20TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:5012% → 61%
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
88.2%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Savion Williams for 7 yds to the TCU 32Similar
Q4 4:18
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
86.4%
Savion Williams run for 5 yds to the TCU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
87.8%
Josh Hoover pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:34
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+15
88.0%
(03:36) No Huddle-Shotgun Hoover,Josh pass incomplete short left to Battle,Trent thrown to TCU42 PENALTY BU Roughing The Passer (Marshall,Jackie) 15 yards from TCU37 to BU48, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
86.0%
Trent Battle run for 1 yd to the BAY 47Similar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+6
86.2%
Josh Hoover run for 6 yds to the BAY 41Similar
Q4 2:05
3RD & 3
OPP 41
0
87.7%
Josh Hoover pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:00
4TH & 3
OPP 41
+17
88.7%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Savion Williams for 17 yds to the BAY 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
38.9%
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jack Bech for 24 yds for a TD (Kyle Lemmermann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BAYDrive 21FG
16 plays · 59 yds · 1:4857% → 96%
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
56.9%
Bryson Washington run for 5 yds to the BAY 30Similar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
58.2%
Bryson Washington run for 4 yds to the BAY 34Similar
Q4 0:49
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+7
58.2%
Bryson Washington run for 7 yds to the BAY 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
60.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+14
59.2%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 14 yds to the TCU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
64.0%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:21
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+1
63.6%
Bryson Washington run for 1 yd to the TCU 44Similar
Q4 0:16
3RD & 9
OPP 44
0
61.0%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:12
4TH & 9
OPP 44
+15
56.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Michael Trigg for 15 yds to the TCU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+13
67.4%
Bryson Washington run for 13 yds to the TCU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+33
95.8%
Isaiah Hankins 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:55
Josh Hoover pass complete to Jack Bech for 24 yds for a TD (Kyle Lemmermann KICK)
-42.6
TD · Q4 14:03
Bryson Washington run for 35 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)
+29.6
FG · Q4 0:00
Isaiah Hankins 33 yd FG GOOD
+28.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com