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BYU

BYU 37 at UCF 24

UCF
2024 · Week 9 · Oct 26, 2024 · FBC Mortgage Stadium
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Win probability · UCF
modelUCF aheadBYU aheadconfidence bandkey playUCF scoreBYU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of GameFG-0.8UCF 47.8%Will Ferrin 41 yd FG GOODAWAY 10 - HOME 0 · Q2 14:53
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:53 · Will Ferrin 41 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame prior
+51.5+25.80−25.8−51.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 34Home team on offense−4.4Score differential−2.3Garbage-time factor−1.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4Pregame prior+3.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:13: LJ Martin run for 15 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK) — BYU win probability +5.6 pts (now 62%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:02: RJ Harvey run for 2 yds for a TD (Grant Reddick KICK) — UCF win probability +8.2 pts (now 47%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:27: Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Chase Roberts for 62 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK) — BYU win probability +13.1 pts (now 75%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:01: Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Mata'ava Ta'ase for 1 yd for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK) — BYU win probability +11.9 pts (now 93%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:14: RJ Harvey run for 5 yds for a TD (D. Rizk Run For Two-point Conversion) — UCF win probability +7.4 pts (now 10%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCF made the numbers' call on 6 of 7BYU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 8:22UCF 4th & 1 at UCF 49, down 7
    Close callPunted · 56.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.8%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:47BYU 4th & 2 at BYU 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    46.5%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:38BYU 4th & 5 at UCF 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    47.5%−<0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    45.0%−2.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:53BYU 4th & 12 at UCF 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.3%−1.0
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.3%
    72% to make
    Punt
    44.9%−3.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:13UCF 4th & 12 at UCF 46, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.4%−0.7
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:08BYU 4th & 4 at BYU 49, up 10
    Close callPunted · 57.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.4%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:59UCF 4th & 15 at BYU 20, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.0%−1.7
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.8%
    75% to make
    Punt
    34.5%−4.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:12UCF 4th & 3 at UCF 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%−0.5
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:40BYU 4th & 2 at UCF 19, up 21
    Close callKicked a field goal · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.9%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.4%−0.5
    77% to make
    Punt
    91.2%−3.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:54UCF 4th & 6 at UCF 44, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.4%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.5%
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:48BYU 4th & 4 at BYU 15, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.5%
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:10BYU 4th & 10 at UCF 18, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.4%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.6%
    79% to make
    Punt
    95.1%−1.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:30UCF 4th & 4 at UCF 17, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.7%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.3%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:56UCF 4th & 3 at BYU 29, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    1.7%−<0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−0.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCF made the numbers' call on 2 of 3BYU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 10:32BYU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:13BYU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:02UCF Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:27BYU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:01BYU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:14UCF Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    5.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    5.0%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:56UCF Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    3.4%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    3.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BYUDrive 1TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:2645% → 47%
Q1 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
55.0%
LJ Martin run for 6 yds to the BYU 31Similar
Q1 14:24
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
55.1%
LJ Martin run for 2 yds to the BYU 33Similar
Q1 13:40
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
55.1%
LJ Martin run for 3 yds to the BYU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
55.2%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Keelan Marion for 12 yds to the BYU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+20
55.1%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Darius Lassiter for 20 yds to the UCF 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
55.0%
Jake Retzlaff pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:24
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+3
54.9%
Hinckley Ropati run for 3 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q1 10:32
3RD & 7
OPP 29
+29
53.4%
Jake Retzlaff run for 29 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 2:0654% → 54%
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
53.8%
Jacurri Brown pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 6 yds to the UCF 31Similar
Q1 10:17
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+9
54.0%
Johnny Richardson run for 9 yds to the UCF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
54.1%
RJ Harvey run for 3 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q1 9:24
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+3
54.0%
Jacurri Brown run for 3 yds to the UCF 46Similar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+3
53.7%
RJ Harvey run for 3 yds to the UCF 49Similar
Q1 8:22
4TH & 1
OWN 49
0
53.6%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Parker Kingston at the BYU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 3FG
19 plays · 69 yds · 8:1747% → 52%
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+9
53.2%
LJ Martin run for 9 yds to the BYU 18Similar
Q1 7:26
2ND & 1
OWN 18
+6
52.5%
LJ Martin run for 6 yds to the BYU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
52.4%
Hinckley Ropati run for 6 yds to the BYU 30Similar
Q1 6:06
2ND & 4
OWN 30
0
51.8%
Jake Retzlaff pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:04
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+7
52.1%
LJ Martin run for 7 yds to the BYU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
51.6%
Jake Retzlaff pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:21
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-5
51.7%
Jake Retzlaff run for a loss of 5 yards to the BYU 32Similar
Q1 4:40
3RD & 15
OWN 32
+13
52.1%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Darius Lassiter for 13 yds to the BYU 45Similar
Q1 3:47
4TH & 2
OWN 45
+2
51.2%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Darius Lassiter for 2 yds to the BYU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+20
50.4%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Parker Kingston for 20 yds to the UCF 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
49.7%
Jake Retzlaff pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:28
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+5
49.6%
Parker Kingston run for 5 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q1 1:49
3RD & 5
OPP 28
0
49.3%
Jake Retzlaff pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:38
4TH & 5
OPP 28
+8
50.0%
Will Ferrin run for 8 yds to the UCF 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
48.8%
Jake Retzlaff run for no gain to the UCF 20Similar
Q1 0:13
2ND & 10
OPP 20
-2
48.4%
Jake Retzlaff run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 22Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 22
0
48.7%
Jake Retzlaff pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 12
OPP 22
+41
47.8%
Will Ferrin 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:3948% → 47%
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
48.3%
RJ Harvey run for 23 yds to the UCF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
49.2%
RJ Harvey run for no gain to the UCF 48Similar
Q2 13:52
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+3
48.4%
Jacurri Brown pass complete to Randy Pittman Jr. for 3 yds to the BYU 49Similar
Q2 13:26
3RD & 7
OPP 49
0
48.2%
Jacurri Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:17
4TH & 7
OPP 49
-5
47.4%
UCF Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the UCF 46Similar
Q2 13:13
4TH & 12
OWN 46
0
46.6%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Parker Kingston at the BYU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 5TD
9 plays · 92 yds · 4:5652% → 62%
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+20
48.1%
LJ Martin run for 20 yds to the BYU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+13
46.8%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Hinckley Ropati for 13 yds to the BYU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
45.7%
(11:49) RETZLAFF, Jake pass deep to the right incomplete intended for ROBERTS, Chase thrown to the UCF20, clock 11:45. PENALTY UCF Pass Interference on JOHNSON, Chasen enforced 15 yards to the UCF44 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
45.3%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Parker Kingston for 3 yds to the UCF 41Similar
Q2 11:02
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+16
44.5%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Cody Hagen for 16 yds to the UCF 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-10
44.0%
Jake Retzlaff sacked by Ricky Barber for a loss of 10 yards to the UCF 35Similar
Q2 9:43
2ND & 20
OPP 35
+19
44.1%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Darius Lassiter for 19 yds to the UCF 16Similar
Q2 9:11
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+1
43.7%
LJ Martin run for 1 yd to the UCF 15 LJ Martin fumbled, recovered by BYU LJ Martin L. Martin return for 0 yds for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
38.1%
LJ Martin run for 15 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 6TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:1138% → 47%
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
37.5%
Jacurri Brown pass complete to Jacoby Jones for 6 yds to the UCF 31Similar
Q2 7:42
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+13
37.5%
Jacurri Brown pass complete to Jacoby Jones for 13 yds to the UCF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+54
38.6%
RJ Harvey run for 54 yds to the BYU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
46.8%
RJ Harvey run for 2 yds for a TD (Grant Reddick KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 24 yds · 2:5158% → 60%
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
41.7%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Ryner Swanson for 18 yds to the BYU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-2
40.1%
Hinckley Ropati run for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 41Similar
Q2 5:32
2ND & 12
OWN 41
+4
40.2%
LJ Martin run for 4 yds to the BYU 45Similar
Q2 4:51
3RD & 8
OWN 45
+4
39.5%
Jake Retzlaff run for 4 yds to the BYU 49Similar
Q2 4:08
4TH & 4
OWN 49
0
39.9%
Sam Vander Haar punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 8FG
13 plays · 67 yds · 3:0241% → 43%
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-6
41.3%
Jacurri Brown sacked by Blake Mangelson for a loss of 6 yards to the UCF 7Similar
Q2 3:41
2ND & 16
OWN 7
0
40.9%
RJ Harvey run for no gain to the UCF 7Similar
Q2 3:15
3RD & 16
OWN 7
+16
40.0%
Jacurri Brown pass complete to Jacoby Jones for 16 yds to the UCF 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
40.6%
(02:41) MONTGOMERY, Myles rush up the middle for a gain of 5 yards to the UCF28 (TAGGART, Harrison;MANGELSON, Blake), clock 02:38. PENALTY Before the snap, BYU Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the UCF23 to the UCF28. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:32
1ST & 5
OWN 28
+13
41.3%
Jacurri Brown pass complete to Chauncey Magwood for 13 yds to the UCF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
40.8%
RJ Harvey run for 4 yds to the UCF 45Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+40
40.9%
Jacurri Brown pass complete to Jacoby Jones for 40 yds to the BYU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
42.5%
Jacurri Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 10
OPP 15
-15
42.5%
UCF Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jacurri Brown) to the BYU 25Similar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 20
OPP 25
+5
39.5%
BYU Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the BYU 20Similar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 15
OPP 20
0
39.5%
Jacurri Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:59
4TH & 15
OPP 20
+38
42.9%
Grant Reddick 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 9TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:3060% → 75%
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
40.4%
LJ Martin run for 11 yds to the BYU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
39.2%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to LJ Martin for 2 yds to the BYU 38Similar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
38.5%
Jake Retzlaff pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+62
25.3%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Chase Roberts for 62 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 10END OF HALF
4 plays · 14 yds · 0:0831% → 31%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+15
30.7%
RJ Harvey run for 15 yds to the UCF 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
30.6%
Jacurri Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:07
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-1
30.5%
Jacurri Brown pass complete to RJ Harvey for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:4530% → 29%
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
30.2%
RJ Harvey run for 1 yd to the UCF 26Similar
Q3 14:29
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
29.8%
Jacurri Brown run for 1 yd to the UCF 27Similar
Q3 13:52
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+5
29.0%
BYU Penalty, Offsides (Jakob Robinson) to the UCF 32Similar
Q3 13:33
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
30.2%
Jacurri Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:12
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+6
29.2%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 46 yds , Parker Kingston returns for 6 yds to the BYU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 12TD
11 plays · 72 yds · 6:2373% → 93%
Q3 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
27.4%
LJ Martin run for 4 yds to the BYU 32Similar
Q3 12:57
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+3
26.9%
LJ Martin run for 3 yds to the BYU 35Similar
Q3 12:20
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+4
26.8%
Jake Retzlaff run for 4 yds to the BYU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
24.2%
(11:23) RETZLAFF, Jake pass deep to the left incomplete intended for KINGSTON, Parker thrown to the UCF20, clock 11:16. PENALTY UCF Pass Interference on BULLARD, Quadric enforced 15 yards to the UCF46 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
23.7%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Parker Kingston for 6 yds to the UCF 40Similar
Q3 10:41
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+14
22.8%
Hinckley Ropati run for 14 yds to the UCF 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
20.7%
LJ Martin run for 4 yds to the UCF 22Similar
Q3 9:21
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+8
20.3%
Jake Retzlaff run for 8 yds to the UCF 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+13
19.5%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Chase Roberts for 13 yds to the UCF 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
18.9%
Jake Retzlaff run for no gain to the UCF 1Similar
Q3 7:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
7.0%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Mata'ava Ta'ase for 1 yd for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 13INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 1:1211% → 8%
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
11.4%
RJ Harvey run for 4 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-1
11.4%
RJ Harvey run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 28 RJ Harvey fumbled, recovered by UCF RJ Harvey R. Harvey return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q3 5:48
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-6
8.4%
Jacurri Brown pass intercepted Isaiah Glasker return for 6 yds to the UCF 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 14FG
5 plays · 8 yds · 2:0895% → 96%
Q3 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
5.4%
Jake Retzlaff run for 3 yds to the UCF 24Similar
Q3 5:05
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+6
5.2%
Hinckley Ropati run for 6 yds to the UCF 18Similar
Q3 4:27
3RD & 1
OPP 18
-1
3.9%
Hinckley Ropati run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 19Similar
Q3 3:40
4TH & 2
OPP 19
+37
3.6%
Will Ferrin 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:446% → 5%
Q3 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
5.9%
BYU Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Isaiah Glasker) to the UCF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
5.9%
RJ Harvey run for 3 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q3 2:36
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+1
5.9%
Myles Montgomery run for 1 yd to the UCF 44Similar
Q3 1:58
3RD & 6
OWN 44
0
5.3%
Jacurri Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:54
4TH & 6
OWN 44
0
5.2%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Parker Kingston at the BYU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 16FUMBLE
6 plays · 35 yds · 2:2997% → 98%
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+18
3.1%
Keelan Marion run for 18 yds to the BYU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
2.8%
Chase Roberts run for 2 yds to the BYU 36Similar
Q3 0:30
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+8
2.6%
Hinckley Ropati run for 8 yds to the BYU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
2.4%
LJ Martin run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:33
2ND & 4
50
+5
2.3%
UCF Penalty, Offsides (Xe'ree Alexander) to the UCF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-4
2.3%
Jake Retzlaff sacked for a loss of 4 yards to the UCF 49 Jake Retzlaff fumbled, recovered by UCF Malachi Lawrence , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 17INT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:474% → 4%
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
4.2%
Jacurri Brown run for no gain to the UCF 49Similar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
3.6%
Jacurri Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:32
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+5
3.4%
BYU Penalty, Offsides (Tyler Batty) to the BYU 46Similar
Q4 13:27
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+6
3.7%
Jacurri Brown run for 6 yds to the BYU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
3.6%
Ja'Varrius Johnson run for 4 yds to the BYU 36Similar
Q4 12:25
2ND & 6
OPP 36
0
3.6%
Jacurri Brown pass intercepted Faletau Satuala return for no gain to the BYU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2198% → 98%
Q4 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
2.1%
Hinckley Ropati run for 3 yds to the BYU 12Similar
Q4 11:36
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+3
1.9%
Hinckley Ropati run for 3 yds to the BYU 15Similar
Q4 10:51
3RD & 4
OWN 15
0
1.8%
Jake Retzlaff pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:48
4TH & 4
OWN 15
0
1.8%
Sam Vander Haar punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Trent Whittemore at the UCF 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 19TD
4 plays · 60 yds · 1:293% → 10%
Q4 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
2.8%
RJ Harvey run for 11 yds to the BYU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+12
2.8%
Dylan Rizk pass complete to Chauncey Magwood for 12 yds to the BYU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+32
2.7%
Dylan Rizk pass complete to Chauncey Magwood for 32 yds to the BYU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
10.1%
RJ Harvey run for 5 yds for a TD (D. Rizk Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 20FG
15 plays · 57 yds · 6:0495% → 99%
Q4 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
5.0%
BYU Penalty, False Start (Weylin Lapuaho) to the BYU 20Similar
Q4 9:09
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-2
5.1%
Jake Retzlaff sacked by Daylan Dotson for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 18Similar
Q4 8:33
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+8
4.8%
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Parker Kingston for 8 yds to the BYU 26Similar
Q4 7:40
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+12
4.6%
Jake Retzlaff run for 12 yds to the BYU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
3.9%
Jake Retzlaff run for 1 yd to the BYU 39Similar
Q4 6:11
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+18
3.6%
Hinckley Ropati run for 18 yds to the UCF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
3.2%
Hinckley Ropati run for 5 yds to the UCF 38Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+20
2.9%
Hinckley Ropati run for 20 yds to the UCF 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
1.6%
Miles Davis run for 3 yds to the UCF 15Similar
Q4 3:21
2ND & 7
OPP 15
0
1.6%
Hinckley Ropati run for no gain to the UCF 15Similar
Q4 3:13
3RD & 7
OPP 15
-3
1.2%
Miles Davis run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 18Similar
Q4 3:10
4TH & 10
OPP 18
+36
1.0%
Will Ferrin 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 21TD
14 plays · 89 yds · 2:072% → 3%
Q4 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+6
1.9%
Dylan Rizk pass complete to Randy Pittman Jr. for 6 yds to the UCF 17Similar
Q4 2:38
2ND & 4
OWN 17
0
1.8%
Dylan Rizk pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:36
3RD & 4
OWN 17
0
1.8%
Dylan Rizk pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:30
4TH & 4
OWN 17
+5
1.8%
Dylan Rizk run for 5 yds to the UCF 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
1.5%
Dylan Rizk run for 8 yds to the UCF 30Similar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+12
0.7%
Dylan Rizk pass complete to Jacoby Jones for 12 yds to the UCF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
0.7%
Dylan Rizk pass complete to RJ Harvey for 11 yds to the BYU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
0.7%
Dylan Rizk run for 11 yds to the BYU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
0.7%
Dylan Rizk pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:27
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+7
0.7%
Dylan Rizk run for 7 yds to the BYU 29Similar
Q4 1:02
3RD & 3
OPP 29
0
0.8%
Dylan Rizk pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:56
4TH & 3
OPP 29
+29
2.7%
Dylan Rizk pass complete to Jacoby Jones for 29 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 22END OF GAME
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:2499% → 99%
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-5
1.1%
(00:56) Kneel down by TEAM at UCF47 (team loss of 2), clock 00:55. PENALTY Before the snap, BYU Illegal Snap on MITCHELL, Bruce enforced 5 yards from the UCF42 to the UCF47. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 0:55
1ST & 15
OPP 47
-1
1.2%
[NHSG] Kneel down by TEAM at UCF48 (team loss of 1), clock 00:55.Similar
Q4 0:52
2ND & 16
OPP 48
-1
1.0%
(00:52) [NHSG] Kneel down by TEAM at UCF49 (team loss of 1), clock 00:45.Similar
Q4 0:32
3RD & 17
OPP 49
-1
1.0%
(00:32) [NHSG] Kneel down by TEAM at UCF50 (team loss of 1), clock 00:27.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:27
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Chase Roberts for 62 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)
-13.1
TD · Q3 7:01
Jake Retzlaff pass complete to Mata'ava Ta'ase for 1 yd for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)
-11.9
TD · Q2 7:02
RJ Harvey run for 2 yds for a TD (Grant Reddick KICK)
+8.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com