2024 · Week 8 · Oct 19, 2024 · Milan Puskar Stadium
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Win probability · WVU
modelWVU aheadKSU aheadconfidence bandkey playWVU scoreKSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:05 · Oliver Straw punt for 54 yds , Dylan Edwards returns for 9 yds to the KSU 31
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 0:21: Jadon Jackson 60 Yd pass from Avery Johnson (Chris Tennant Kick) — KSU win probability +6.9 pts (now 55%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 13:14: Marques Sigle 43 Yd Interception Return (Chris Tennant Kick) — KSU win probability +6.9 pts (now 60%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 6:38: Hudson Clement 7 Yd pass from Garrett Greene (Michael Hayes II Kick) — WVU win probability +3.8 pts (now 45%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 9:38: Garrett Oakley 16 Yd pass from Avery Johnson (Chris Tennant Kick) — KSU win probability +15.5 pts (now 81%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:48: Will Anciaux 1 Yd pass from Avery Johnson (Chris Tennant Kick) — KSU win probability +13.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WVU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8KSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 5
- Q1 12:40WVU 4th & 8 at WVU 27, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 45.4% before the snapGo for it45.4%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call45.4%average punt
- Q1 10:43KSU 4th & 1 at KSU 29, tiedClose callPunted · 53.8% before the snapGo for it54.0%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call53.8%−0.2average punt
- Q1 3:03KSU 4th & 4 at WVU 26, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 52.8% before the snapGo for it52.8%48% to convertField goalTheir call52.7%−0.164% to makePunt51.1%−1.7average punt
- Q1 0:52WVU 4th & 7 at KSU 26, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.9% before the snapGo for it46.7%−0.236% to convertField goalTheir call46.8%64% to makePunt44.5%−2.3average punt
- Q2 5:09KSU 4th & 4 at KSU 48, up 7Close callPunted · 62.4% before the snapGo for it62.6%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call61.9%−0.7average punt
- Q2 0:22WVU 4th & 1 at KSU 3, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call39.2%63% to convertField goal37.3%−1.993% to makePunt29.5%−9.7average punt
- Q3 14:55KSU 4th & 5 at WVU 40, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call65.8%42% to convertField goal64.4%−1.334% to makePunt64.9%−0.9average punt
- Q3 8:05WVU 4th & 11 at WVU 24, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.7% before the snapGo for it19.2%−1.725% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.9%average punt
- Q3 0:45WVU 4th & 5 at KSU 37, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.7%42% to convertField goal5.0%−0.740% to makePunt4.8%−1.0average punt
- Q4 7:19KSU 4th & 8 at KSU 23, up 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.8% before the snapGo for it97.4%−0.532% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.0%average punt
- Q4 6:40WVU 4th & 12 at WVU 27, down 20Close callWent for it · 1.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.5%−0.422% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.9%average punt
- Q4 3:14WVU 4th & 2 at WVU 29, down 27Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 1:56WVU 4th & 8 at WVU 33, down 27Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−<0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WVU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2KSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
- Q1 0:21KSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call56.4%97% to makeGo for two56.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:14KSU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call63.0%97% to makeGo for two62.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:38WVU Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call37.6%97% to makeGo for two37.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:38KSU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call74.6%97% to makeGo for two74.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:48KSU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.4%97% to makeGo for two92.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:09KSU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:22WVU Touchdown, down 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersWent for two · convertedKick1.9%−0.197% to makeGo for twoTheir call2.0%45% to convert
- Q4 5:51KSU Touchdown, up 26 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%−<0.197% to makeGo for two99.8%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWVUDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 2:2051% → 51%
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-10
50.6%
QB Keeper GREENE, Garrett rush to the left for a gain of 5 yards to the WVU34 (SIGLE, Marques), out of bounds. PENALTY WVU Holding on RIMAC, Tomas enforced 10 yards from the WVU29 to the WVU19 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+8
50.6%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Jahiem White for 8 yds to the WVU 27Similar
Q1 12:40
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+2
50.8%
Oliver Straw punt for 45 yds , Dylan Edwards returns for 2 yds to the KSU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5749% → 49%
Q1 12:40
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+9
51.1%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Ty Bowman for 9 yds to the KSU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 3INT6 plays · 15 yds · 2:2451% → 52%
KSUDrive 4FG10 plays · 37 yds · 5:1649% → 49%
Q1 8:19
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+5
51.4%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Dylan Edwards for 5 yds to the KSU 41Similar
Q1 8:19
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+7
51.1%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Ty Bowman for 7 yds to the KSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:19
3RD & 8
50
+18
51.1%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 18 yds to the WVU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:19
3RD & 8
OPP 30
+4
50.9%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Garrett Oakley for 4 yds to the WVU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 5FG7 plays · 49 yds · 2:1151% → 53%
Q1 3:03
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+15
50.7%
GREENE, Garrett pass deep to the right incomplete intended for RAY, Traylon thrown to the KST45. PENALTY KST Pass Interference on STIGER, Nickendre enforced 15 yards to the WVU43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 6TD2 plays · 84 yds · 0:2648% → 55%
WVUDrive 7INT TD7 plays · 13 yds · 2:0747% → 40%
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+2
46.5%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Traylon Ray for 2 yds to the WVU 24Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 24
+10
45.9%
GREENE, Garrett pass up the middle incomplete intended for RAY, Traylon thrown to the WVU35. PENALTY KST Pass Interference on MCCALISTER, Colby enforced at the spot of the foul for 10 yards to the WVU34 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-10
46.8%
DONALDSON JR., CJ rush to the left for a gain of 7 yards to the WVU41 (MOORE, Austin). PENALTY WVU Holding on YATES, Brandon enforced 10 yards from the WVU34 to the WVU24 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 8TD13 plays · 70 yds · 6:2940% → 45%
KSUDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 23 yds · 1:2958% → 59%
WVUDrive 10DOWNS17 plays · 89 yds · 4:4742% → 40%
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+34
42.1%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Kole Taylor for 34 yds to the KSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
45.1%
Garrett Greene pass complete to CJ Donaldson Jr. for no gain to the KSU 47Similar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-10
44.7%
QB Keeper GREENE, Garrett rush to the left for a gain of 5 yards to the KST24 (MOORE, Austin), out of bounds. PENALTY WVU Holding on RIMAC, Tomas enforced 10 yards from the KST29 to the KST39 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+3
44.7%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Traylon Ray for 3 yds to the KSU 25Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+13
43.1%
QB Keeper GREENE, Garrett rush up the middle for a gain of 1 yard to the KST24 (PURNELL, Desmond). PENALTY KST Face mask on PURNELL, Desmond enforced half the distance from the goal, 12 yards from the KST24 to the KST12 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:28
3RD & 9
OPP 11
+8
41.4%
Garrett Greene pass complete to Rodney Gallagher III for 8 yds to the KSU 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 11END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 12TD11 plays · 74 yds · 5:1763% → 81%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
37.5%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jayce Brown for 15 yds to the KSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
35.7%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Dylan Edwards for 8 yds to the KSU 49Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+7
36.0%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Jayce Brown for 7 yds to the WVU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
4TH & 5
OPP 40
+11
36.9%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Ty Bowman for 11 yds to the WVU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+5
34.8%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Dylan Edwards for 5 yds to the WVU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
19.3%
Garrett Oakley 16 Yd pass from Avery Johnson (Chris Tennant Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 13PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 1:3323% → 21%
Q3 8:05
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+9
21.1%
Oliver Straw punt for 54 yds , Dylan Edwards returns for 9 yds to the KSU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 14TD7 plays · 69 yds · 3:1780% → 95%
WVUDrive 15DOWNS9 plays · 27 yds · 3:578% → 6%
Q3 4:42
2ND & 14
OWN 32
+10
7.3%
Kansas State Penalty, Defensive Holding (Damian Ilalio) to the WVU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+12
7.9%
Nicco Marchiol pass complete to Hudson Clement for 12 yds to the KSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:42
3RD & 5
OPP 37
0
8.2%
MARCHIOL, Nicco pass deep to the right incomplete intended for CLEMENT, Hudson thrown to the KST4 (After official review, play stands as called on the field). PENALTY KST Roughing the Passer on NEWSOM, Asa WVU Holding on WEIDMAN, Sullivan , Offsetting penalties [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 16TD11 plays · 63 yds · 3:3696% → 99%
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+18
3.6%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Will Anciaux for 18 yds to the WVU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+9
3.3%
Avery Johnson pass complete to Dante Cephas for 9 yds to the WVU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
3.2%
JOHNSON, Avery pass to the left incomplete intended for BROWN, Jayce thrown to the WVU0. PENALTY WVU Holding on JOSEPH, Jaheem enforced half the distance from the goal, 4 yards from the WVU7 to the WVU3 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 17TD9 plays · 69 yds · 3:411% → 3%
Q4 12:03
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+5
0.6%
DONALDSON JR., CJ rush up the middle for a gain of 1 yard to the WVU32 (RILEY, Jordan). PENALTY KST Offsides on FABRIS, Jack enforced 5 yards from the WVU31 to the WVU36 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:03
4TH & 1
OWN 40
+16
0.6%
Kansas State Penalty, Face mask (16 yards) (Rex Van Wyhe) to the KSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+20
0.7%
Nicco Marchiol pass complete to Traylon Ray for 20 yds to the KSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
3.3%
Nicco Marchiol pass complete to Traylon Ray for 12 yds for a TD (Nicco Marchiol pass to Kole Taylor for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 18PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:0198% → 98%
Q4 7:19
4TH & 8
OWN 23
0
1.8%
Simon McClannan punt for 48 yds , Preston Fox returns for no gain to the WVU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 19DOWNS4 plays · -4 yds · 0:392% → 2%
Q4 6:40
4TH & 12
OWN 27
-2
1.9%
Nicco Marchiol sacked by Brendan Mott and Chiddi Obiazor for a loss of 2 yards to the WVU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 20TD2 plays · 25 yds · 0:4999% → 100%
WVUDrive 21DOWNS10 plays · 12 yds · 3:500% → 0%
Q4 5:46
2ND & 6
OWN 25
-1
0.2%
Jaylen Anderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the WVU 24 Jaylen Anderson fumbled, recovered by WVU Treylan Davis T. Davis return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q4 5:46
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+5
0.2%
Nicco Marchiol pass complete to Hudson Clement for 5 yds to the WVU 29Similar
Q4 3:14
2ND & 6
OWN 35
-7
0.2%
Nicco Marchiol sacked by Jordan Allen for a loss of 7 yards to the WVU 28Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 13
OWN 28
+5
0.1%
Nicco Marchiol pass complete to Hudson Clement for 5 yds to the WVU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 22END OF 4TH QUARTER3 plays · 31 yds · 1:56100% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:38
Garrett Oakley 16 Yd pass from Avery Johnson (Chris Tennant Kick)
-15.5
TD · Q3 4:48
Will Anciaux 1 Yd pass from Avery Johnson (Chris Tennant Kick)
-13.2
TD · Q1 0:21
Jadon Jackson 60 Yd pass from Avery Johnson (Chris Tennant Kick)
-6.9