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UCF

UCF 35 at Iowa State 38

ISU
2024 · Week 8 · Oct 19, 2024 · Jack Trice Stadium
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Win probability · ISU
modelISU aheadUCF aheadconfidence bandkey playISU scoreUCF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:17 · Mitch McCarthy punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Noel at the ISU 27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialOffense timeoutsScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 28Pregame prior+28.8Home team on offense−0.6Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential−0.7Offense timeouts+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 8:36: Rocco Becht run for 1 yd for a TD (Kyle Konrardy KICK) — ISU win probability +17.6 pts (now 57%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 0:51: Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 12 yds for a TD (Kyle Konrardy PAT BLOCKED) — ISU win probability +16.0 pts (now 63%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  3. TD · Q4 11:38: RJ Harvey run for 1 yd for a TD (Grant Reddick KICK) — UCF win probability +35.6 pts (now 80%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 8:53: Kyle Konrardy 30 yd FG GOOD — ISU win probability +18.2 pts (now 38%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:30: Rocco Becht run for 1 yd for a TD (R. Becht Run For Two-point Conversion) — ISU win probability +82.8 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ISU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ISU made the numbers' call on 10 of 12UCF made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 11:05ISU 4th & 5 at ISU 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.3%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:40UCF 4th & 7 at UCF 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.9%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:17UCF 4th & 3 at UCF 27, tied
    Close callPunted · 21.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.3%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:34ISU 4th & 1 at UCF 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    77.4%−0.5
    58% to make
    Punt
    76.3%−1.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:13UCF 4th & 2 at UCF 44, down 7
    Close callPunted · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.6%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:22ISU 4th & 3 at ISU 47, up 7
    Close callPunted · 80.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.2%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:06ISU 4th & 11 at ISU 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.7%−0.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:10UCF 4th & 4 at UCF 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.7%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:44ISU 4th & 4 at ISU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.2%−0.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:32UCF 4th & 8 at UCF 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.6%
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:50ISU 4th & 1 at ISU 24, tied
    Close callPunted · 71.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.4%−0.8
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:22ISU 4th & 1 at ISU 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.0%−0.6
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 14:23ISU 4th & 10 at ISU 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.1%−2.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:37ISU 4th & 3 at UCF 18, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.9%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    38.3%−0.6
    79% to make
    Punt
    31.4%−7.5
    average punt
  15. Q3 7:23UCF 4th & 4 at UCF 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.0%−1.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.2%
    average punt
  16. Q3 3:37ISU 4th & 3 at UCF 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    44.9%−4.8
    23% to make
    Punt
    47.8%−1.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:55UCF 4th & 5 at UCF 30, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.4%−1.0
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.4%
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:53ISU 4th & 12 at UCF 12, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.5%−3.8
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.2%
    86% to make
    Punt
    12.5%−14.8
    average punt
  19. Q4 7:36UCF 4th & 5 at UCF 42, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.5%−1.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.0%
    average punt
  20. Q4 4:36ISU 4th & 13 at ISU 25, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.1%−2.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.6%
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:54UCF 4th & 6 at ISU 42, up 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    86.2%−1.8
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    86.6%−1.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ISU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5UCF made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 12:17UCF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:57ISU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:30ISU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:01UCF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:18UCF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 13:33UCF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:36ISU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 0:51ISU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    61.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 11:38UCF Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.6%−1.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 0:30ISU Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Numbers favored kick by 1.9 ptsWent for two · converted
    Kick
    79.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    77.8%−1.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCFDrive 1TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:4217% → 18%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
83.4%
Jacurri Brown pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 12 yds to the UCF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
83.3%
Jacurri Brown pass complete to Randy Pittman Jr. for 5 yds to the UCF 42Similar
Q1 14:08
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+4
83.1%
RJ Harvey run for 4 yds to the UCF 46Similar
Q1 13:38
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+46
83.0%
RJ Harvey run for 46 yds to the ISU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
82.7%
RJ Harvey run for 2 yds to the ISU 6Similar
Q1 12:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
81.9%
Jacurri Brown run for 6 yds for a TD (Grant Reddick KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:1182% → 81%
Q1 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
82.1%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 14 yds to the ISU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
81.9%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:52
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+5
81.9%
UCF Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the ISU 44Similar
Q1 11:51
2ND & 5
OWN 44
0
82.0%
Jaylon Jackson run for no gain to the ISU 44Similar
Q1 11:12
3RD & 5
OWN 44
0
81.7%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:05
4TH & 5
OWN 44
0
81.4%
Tyler Perkins punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 3PUNT
10 plays · 29 yds · 3:1919% → 21%
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
81.4%
Jacurri Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:52
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+9
81.3%
Jacurri Brown run for 9 yds to the UCF 20Similar
Q1 10:24
3RD & 1
OWN 20
+5
81.1%
RJ Harvey run for 5 yds to the UCF 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
80.7%
RJ Harvey run for 3 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q1 9:27
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
80.4%
Jacurri Brown run for 9 yds to the UCF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
79.9%
Myles Montgomery run for 4 yds to the UCF 41Similar
Q1 8:21
2ND & 6
OWN 41
-1
79.4%
Jacurri Brown pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 40Similar
Q1 7:43
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
79.0%
Jacurri Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:40
4TH & 7
OWN 40
+36
79.3%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 56 yds , Jaylin Noel returns for 36 yds to the ISU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 4TD
2 plays · 60 yds · 0:2880% → 81%
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
79.5%
Carson Hansen run for 3 yds to the ISU 43Similar
Q1 6:57
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+57
81.4%
Carson Hansen run for 57 yds for a TD (Kyle Konrardy KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3419% → 20%
Q1 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
81.1%
RJ Harvey run for 3 yds to the UCF 23Similar
Q1 6:24
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+6
80.5%
Jacurri Brown run for 6 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q1 6:03
3RD & 1
OWN 29
-2
80.3%
RJ Harvey run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 27Similar
Q1 5:17
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
80.5%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Noel at the ISU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 6TD
12 plays · 73 yds · 4:3981% → 84%
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+23
80.5%
Rocco Becht run for 23 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
50
+1
81.0%
Rocco Becht run for 1 yd to the UCF 49Similar
Q1 3:57
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+7
80.8%
Carson Hansen run for 7 yds to the UCF 42Similar
Q1 3:35
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+4
80.6%
Carson Hansen run for 4 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
80.7%
Jaylon Jackson run for 4 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q1 2:22
2ND & 6
OPP 34
0
80.8%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:16
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+5
80.5%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 5 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q1 1:34
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+3
79.8%
Rocco Becht run for 3 yds to the UCF 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+8
80.6%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Abu Sama III for 8 yds to the UCF 18Similar
Q1 0:54
2ND & 2
OPP 18
+13
80.2%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Benjamin Brahmer for 13 yds to the UCF 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
83.8%
Carson Hansen run for 5 yds for a TD (Kyle Konrardy KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:0918% → 18%
Q1 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+13
82.1%
Jacurri Brown pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 13 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
81.7%
RJ Harvey run for 2 yds to the UCF 38Similar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+3
81.5%
RJ Harvey run for 3 yds to the UCF 41Similar
Q2 13:47
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+3
81.5%
Jacurri Brown run for 3 yds to the UCF 44Similar
Q2 13:13
4TH & 2
OWN 44
+16
81.8%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 46 yds , Jaylin Noel returns for 16 yds to the ISU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 21 yds · 1:4085% → 84%
Q2 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+14
84.5%
Abu Sama III run for 14 yds to the ISU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
85.2%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Tyler Moore for 2 yds to the ISU 42Similar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+5
85.1%
Abu Sama III run for 5 yds to the ISU 47Similar
Q2 11:26
3RD & 3
OWN 47
0
84.9%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:22
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
84.4%
Tyler Perkins punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 9TD
1 play · 80 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q2 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+80
76.2%
RJ Harvey run for 80 yds for a TD (Grant Reddick KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:5478% → 76%
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
78.1%
Jaylon Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the ISU 24Similar
Q2 10:19
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
77.7%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:14
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
76.5%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:06
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
76.1%
Jace T. Gilbert punt for 44 yds, downed at the UCF 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:4425% → 25%
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
75.1%
Jacurri Brown run for 6 yds to the UCF 38Similar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 4
OWN 38
0
74.0%
Jacurri Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:18
3RD & 4
OWN 38
0
74.5%
Jacurri Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:10
4TH & 4
OWN 38
0
75.4%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 37 yds, downed at the ISU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 2:1477% → 75%
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
77.1%
Carson Hansen run for 4 yds to the ISU 29Similar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
77.0%
Rocco Becht run for 2 yds to the ISU 31Similar
Q2 7:34
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-5
76.0%
Rocco Becht sacked by Lee Hunter for a loss of 5 yards to the ISU 26Similar
Q2 6:54
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+5
74.8%
(06:54) PERKINS, Tyler punt 24 yards to the UCF50 downed by MENDESZOON, Myles, clock 06:46. PENALTY UCF Running Into the kicker on TENNISON, Ladarius enforced 5 yards from the ISU26 to the ISU31 [FAKE PUNT]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:44
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+7
75.2%
Tyler Perkins punt for 54 yds , Trent Whittemore returns for 7 yds to the UCF 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:0227% → 26%
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+14
72.9%
RJ Harvey run for 14 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
72.2%
RJ Harvey run for 2 yds to the UCF 38Similar
Q2 5:44
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
72.0%
Jacurri Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:38
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
72.6%
Jacurri Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:32
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
73.7%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Noel at the ISU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3576% → 74%
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
76.0%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:19
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+3
75.9%
Carson Hansen run for 3 yds to the ISU 18Similar
Q2 4:39
3RD & 7
OWN 18
+6
75.0%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Benjamin Brahmer for 6 yds to the ISU 24Similar
Q2 3:50
4TH & 1
OWN 24
0
73.9%
Tyler Perkins punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Trent Whittemore at the UCF 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 15INT
7 plays · 26 yds · 1:5027% → 29%
Q2 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
72.8%
RJ Harvey run for no gain to the UCF 26Similar
Q2 3:08
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+8
72.9%
RJ Harvey run for 8 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q2 2:37
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+3
72.1%
RJ Harvey run for 3 yds to the UCF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
71.3%
Jacurri Brown pass complete to Randy Pittman Jr. for 15 yds to the ISU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
70.2%
Jacurri Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-1
70.7%
Jacurri Brown pass intercepted Beau Freyler return for 1 yd to the ISU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 16INT TD
3 plays · 20 yds · 0:3076% → 69%
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
75.5%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+20
75.2%
Rocco Becht run for 20 yds to the UCF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-63
68.5%
Rocco Becht pass intercepted Brandon Adams return for 63 yds for a TD (Grant Reddick KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:5266% → 64%
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+7
65.7%
Carson Hansen run for 7 yds to the ISU 16Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 3
OWN 16
0
64.8%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:28
3RD & 3
OWN 16
+2
63.8%
Jaylon Jackson run for 2 yds to the ISU 18Similar
Q2 0:22
4TH & 1
OWN 18
0
63.7%
Tyler Perkins punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Trent Whittemore at the UCF 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 18END OF HALF
1 play · 5 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
63.5%
RJ Harvey run for 5 yds to the UCF 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:3659% → 57%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
59.4%
Abu Sama III run for no gain to the ISU 25Similar
Q3 14:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
58.8%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:30
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
57.6%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:23
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+8
56.8%
Tyler Perkins punt for 52 yds , Trent Whittemore returns for 8 yds to the UCF 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 20TD
2 plays · 69 yds · 0:3944% → 57%
Q3 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
55.8%
RJ Harvey run for 2 yds to the UCF 33Similar
Q3 13:33
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+67
42.9%
Jacurri Brown run for 67 yds for a TD (Grant Reddick KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 21TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:5544% → 57%
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
43.6%
Jaylon Jackson run for 10 yds to the ISU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
42.3%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 11 yds to the ISU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
43.7%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 5 yds to the UCF 49Similar
Q3 12:01
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+4
43.1%
Abu Sama III run for 4 yds to the UCF 45Similar
Q3 11:24
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+2
42.5%
Rocco Becht run for 2 yds to the UCF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+18
41.4%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 18 yds to the UCF 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
42.0%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
41.5%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:16
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+7
40.4%
Rocco Becht run for 7 yds to the UCF 18Similar
Q3 9:37
4TH & 3
OPP 18
+12
39.2%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 12 yds to the UCF 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
39.7%
(09:10) BECHT, Rocco pass up the middle incomplete intended for MOORE, Tyler thrown to the UCF0, clock 09:09. PENALTY UCF Pass Interference on ARNOLD, II, Sheldon enforced at the spot of the foul for 4 yards to the UCF2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 9:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
39.7%
Carson Hansen run for 1 yd to the UCF 1Similar
Q3 8:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
57.3%
Rocco Becht run for 1 yd for a TD (Kyle Konrardy KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1251% → 53%
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
48.9%
RJ Harvey run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 22Similar
Q3 8:04
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+9
48.4%
Jacurri Brown run for 9 yds to the UCF 31Similar
Q3 7:29
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
46.0%
Jacurri Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:23
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
47.5%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Noel at the ISU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 23TD
16 plays · 76 yds · 6:2547% → 63%
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
46.5%
Jaylon Jackson run for no gain to the ISU 24Similar
Q3 6:42
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+12
45.6%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 12 yds to the ISU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
46.5%
Jaylon Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the ISU 35Similar
Q3 5:38
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+3
44.8%
Abu Sama III run for 3 yds to the ISU 38Similar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+9
44.4%
Rocco Becht run for 9 yds to the ISU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
46.7%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:19
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
46.0%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:13
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+7
43.7%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 7 yds to the UCF 46Similar
Q3 3:37
4TH & 3
OPP 46
+6
44.5%
Rocco Becht run for 6 yds to the UCF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
46.6%
Jaylon Jackson run for 1 yd to the UCF 39Similar
Q3 2:38
2ND & 9
OPP 39
0
45.8%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:33
3RD & 9
OPP 39
+26
44.6%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Abu Sama III for 26 yds to the UCF 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-5
47.3%
Iowa State Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the UCF 18Similar
Q3 1:33
1ST & 15
OPP 18
+6
46.6%
Abu Sama III run for 6 yds to the UCF 12Similar
Q3 0:51
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+12
62.6%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 12 yds for a TD (Kyle Konrardy PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5542% → 41%
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
58.5%
RJ Harvey run for no gain to the UCF 25Similar
Q3 0:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
58.7%
Jacurri Brown run for 5 yds to the UCF 30Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
56.5%
Jacurri Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
59.3%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Noel at the ISU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 25FUMBLE
7 plays · -24 yds · 2:5156% → 55%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
55.7%
Abu Sama III run for no gain to the ISU 25Similar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
54.8%
Rocco Becht run for 6 yds to the ISU 31Similar
Q4 13:43
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+8
53.5%
Rocco Becht run for 8 yds to the ISU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+23
56.4%
Abu Sama III run for 23 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-1
59.7%
Abu Sama III run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 39Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 11
OPP 39
0
59.0%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:56
3RD & 11
OPP 39
-70
55.3%
Rocco Becht pass intercepted Braeden Marshall return for 70 yds Braeden Marshall fumbled, recovered by UCF TEAM return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 26TD
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q4 11:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
19.6%
RJ Harvey run for 1 yd for a TD (Grant Reddick KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 27FG
10 plays · 61 yds · 2:3822% → 38%
Q4 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
22.2%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:27
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+12
21.7%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jayden Higgins for 12 yds to the ISU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
22.8%
Abu Sama III run for 1 yd to the ISU 40Similar
Q4 10:19
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+50
21.7%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 50 yds to the UCF 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
27.3%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-2
27.2%
Jaylin Noel run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 12Similar
Q4 9:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
0
23.6%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
-5
20.3%
Iowa State Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the UCF 17Similar
Q4 8:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 17
+5
19.9%
UCF Penalty, Offsides (Ja'Varrius Johnson) to the UCF 12Similar
Q4 8:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+30
38.1%
Kyle Konrardy 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:1564% → 65%
Q4 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
35.7%
Jacurri Brown run for 12 yds to the UCF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
33.7%
RJ Harvey run for 1 yd to the UCF 38Similar
Q4 8:04
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+4
32.7%
Jacurri Brown pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 4 yds to the UCF 42Similar
Q4 7:43
3RD & 5
OWN 42
0
32.0%
Jacurri Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:36
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
34.6%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Noel at the ISU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 29PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 2:5437% → 16%
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
37.1%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 8 yds to the ISU 23Similar
Q4 7:02
2ND & 2
OWN 23
+5
30.1%
Rocco Becht run for 5 yds to the ISU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-4
24.9%
Rocco Becht sacked by Daylan Dotson for a loss of 4 yards to the ISU 24Similar
Q4 5:48
2ND & 14
OWN 24
+6
23.2%
Rocco Becht run for 6 yds to the ISU 30Similar
Q4 5:10
3RD & 8
OWN 30
-5
20.6%
Rocco Becht sacked by Malachi Lawrence for a loss of 5 yards to the ISU 25Similar
Q4 4:36
4TH & 13
OWN 25
0
16.4%
Jace T. Gilbert punt for 50 yds, downed at the UCF 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 30PUNT
13 plays · 33 yds · 2:3580% → 94%
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
19.7%
RJ Harvey run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 23Similar
Q4 3:51
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+20
19.7%
Jacurri Brown run for 20 yds to the UCF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
12.1%
UCF Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the UCF 38Similar
Q4 2:57
1ST & 15
OWN 38
+12
12.8%
RJ Harvey run for 12 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:14
2ND & 3
50
+4
9.3%
RJ Harvey run for 4 yds to the ISU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
9.3%
Jacurri Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the ISU 47Similar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 11
OPP 47
+3
9.6%
RJ Harvey run for 3 yds to the ISU 44Similar
Q4 1:59
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+2
7.6%
Jacurri Brown pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 2 yds to the ISU 42Similar
Q4 1:54
4TH & 6
OPP 42
0
6.2%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 31TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 1:175% → 90%
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
5.3%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Carson Brown for 8 yds to the ISU 28Similar
Q4 1:41
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+8
5.0%
Rocco Becht run for 8 yds to the ISU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
4.4%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:23
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+29
4.2%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 29 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
6.7%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:12
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+16
6.7%
Rocco Becht pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 16 yds to the UCF 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
7.5%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:04
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
6.6%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:55
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+15
5.1%
(00:55) BECHT, Rocco pass deep to the right incomplete intended for HIGGINS, Jayden thrown to the UCF3, clock 00:52. PENALTY UCF Pass Interference on ADAMS, Brandon enforced at the spot of the foul for 15 yards to the UCF4 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 0:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
7.1%
Rocco Becht pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
7.1%
Rocco Becht run for 3 yds to the UCF 1Similar
Q4 0:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
89.9%
Rocco Becht run for 1 yd for a TD (R. Becht Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 32INT
5 plays · 10 yds · 0:1626% → 21%
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
73.6%
Jacurri Brown pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 12 yds to the UCF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
72.0%
UCF Penalty, False Start (Amari Kight) to the UCF 32Similar
Q4 0:24
1ST & 15
OWN 32
+3
73.6%
Jacurri Brown run for 3 yds to the UCF 35Similar
Q4 0:14
2ND & 12
OWN 35
0
79.0%
Jacurri Brown pass intercepted Jontez Williams return for no gain to the ISU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ISUDrive 33END OF GAME
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q4 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
90.1%
(00:06) [NH] Kneel down by BECHT, Rocco at ISU34 (team loss of 0), clock 00:01.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:30
Rocco Becht run for 1 yd for a TD (R. Becht Run For Two-point Conversion)
+82.8
TD · Q4 11:38
RJ Harvey run for 1 yd for a TD (Grant Reddick KICK)
-35.6
FG · Q4 8:53
Kyle Konrardy 30 yd FG GOOD
+18.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com