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ASU

Arizona State 14 at Cincinnati 24

CIN
2024 · Week 8 · Oct 19, 2024 · Nippert Stadium
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Win probability · CIN
modelCIN aheadASU aheadconfidence bandkey playCIN scoreASU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:20 · Nathan Hawks 42 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+28.5+14.30−14.3−28.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 79Home team on offense+16.4Pregame prior+5.5Garbage-time factor+4.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.0Score differential+6.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:38: Evan Pryor run for 55 yds for a TD (Nathan Hawks KICK) — CIN win probability +6.0 pts (now 68%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:55: Brendan Sorsby run for 1 yd for a TD (Nathan Hawks KICK) — CIN win probability +11.0 pts (now 85%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:23: Cam Skattebo run for 1 yd for a TD (Ian Hershey KICK) — ASU win probability +13.3 pts (now 23%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 2:23: Corey Kiner run for 7 yds to the CIN 32 — CIN win probability +5.3 pts (now 82%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:23: (00:23) [SG] Kneel down by SORSBY, Brendan at CIN23 (team loss of 0), clock 00:16. — CIN win probability +4.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CIN made the numbers' call on 8 of 8ASU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 13:48CIN 4th & 8 at CIN 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.4%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:35ASU 4th & 2 at ASU 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    36.6%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:18CIN 4th & 7 at ASU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.8%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.9%
    60% to make
    Punt
    62.5%−1.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00ASU 4th & 17 at ASU 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.9%−1.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:35ASU 4th & 3 at ASU 32, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.0%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:38CIN 4th & 4 at CIN 31, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.6%−0.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:42ASU 4th & 1 at CIN 49, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    26.0%−1.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:35ASU 4th & 4 at ASU 31, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.6%−0.6
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:20CIN 4th & 5 at ASU 24, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.5%−1.7
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.2%
    68% to make
    Punt
    80.3%−4.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:06ASU 4th & 14 at CIN 40, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.3%−0.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    11.8%−0.3
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    12.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:52CIN 4th & 10 at CIN 36, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.7%−1.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:34CIN 4th & 3 at ASU 28, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    85.5%−0.9
    60% to make
    Punt
    81.2%−5.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:11CIN 4th & 3 at ASU 3, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.7%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    86.6%−1.0
    93% to make
    Punt
    81.2%−6.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:01ASU 4th & 2 at CIN 30, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.7%−1.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    7.8%−2.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:59CIN 4th & 14 at ASU 42, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.0%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    94.1%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:30ASU 4th & 10 at CIN 23, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.5%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.2%
    70% to make
    Punt
    4.2%−2.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CIN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ASU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 10:35ASU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:26CIN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:38CIN Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:55CIN Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:23ASU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CINDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1261% → 61%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
61.1%
Corey Kiner run for a loss of 2 yards to the CIN 23Similar
Q1 14:26
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+4
61.1%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 4 yds to the CIN 27Similar
Q1 13:53
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
61.0%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:48
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
61.0%
Mason Fletcher punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Melquan Stovall at the ASU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 2TD
7 plays · 66 yds · 3:0639% → 41%
Q1 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
61.0%
Cam Skattebo run for 4 yds to the ASU 38Similar
Q1 13:11
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+20
60.9%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Cam Skattebo for 20 yds to the CIN 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
60.8%
Kyson Brown run for 5 yds to the CIN 37Similar
Q1 12:09
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+29
60.7%
Kyson Brown run for 29 yds to the CIN 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
60.5%
Jeff Sims run for 6 yds to the CIN 2Similar
Q1 10:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
58.7%
Cam Skattebo run for 2 yds for a TD (Ian Hershey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 3INT
5 plays · 23 yds · 2:0659% → 59%
Q1 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
59.2%
Corey Kiner run for 4 yds to the CIN 29Similar
Q1 9:53
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+16
59.1%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Jamoi Mayes for 16 yds to the CIN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
59.2%
Barry Jackson Jr. run for 3 yds to the CIN 48Similar
Q1 8:35
2ND & 7
OWN 48
0
58.9%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:28
3RD & 7
OWN 48
0
58.6%
Brendan Sorsby pass intercepted Keith Abney II return for no gain to the ASU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 4FUMBLE
1 play · 6 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
58.1%
Cam Skattebo run for 6 yds to the ASU 22 Cam Skattebo fumbled, recovered by CIN Kameron Wilson K. Wilson return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 5TD
2 plays · 22 yds · 0:4659% → 62%
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
59.2%
Evan Pryor run for 8 yds to the ASU 14Similar
Q1 7:26
2ND & 2
OPP 14
+14
61.8%
Brendan Sorsby run for 14 yds for a TD (Nathan Hawks KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 6DOWNS
5 plays · 16 yds · 1:5139% → 40%
Q1 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
60.6%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 15 yds to the ASU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
60.0%
DeCarlos Brooks run for no gain to the ASU 40Similar
Q1 6:21
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
60.2%
Jeff Sims pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:14
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+8
60.5%
Jeff Sims run for 8 yds to the ASU 48Similar
Q1 5:35
4TH & 2
OWN 48
-7
60.2%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Cam Skattebo for a loss of 7 yards to the ASU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 7FG
6 plays · 13 yds · 3:1162% → 62%
Q1 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-15
61.8%
Cincinnati Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (-15 Yards) to the ASU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+14
61.8%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Joe Royer for 14 yds to the ASU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-6
62.0%
Corey Kiner run for a loss of 6 yards to the ASU 34 Corey Kiner fumbled, recovered by CIN Tony Johnson T. Johnson return for 3 ydsSimilar
Q1 3:43
2ND & 13
OPP 34
+1
61.6%
Corey Kiner run for 1 yd to the ASU 33Similar
Q1 3:05
3RD & 12
OPP 33
+5
61.1%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 5 yds to the ASU 28Similar
Q1 2:18
4TH & 7
OPP 28
+46
61.8%
Nathan Hawks 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 2:1838% → 37%
Q1 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
61.7%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 23 yds to the ASU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
60.4%
Cam Skattebo run for 5 yds to the CIN 47Similar
Q1 1:10
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+2
60.3%
Cam Skattebo run for 2 yds to the CIN 45Similar
Q1 0:31
3RD & 3
OPP 45
-5
60.4%
(00:31) SIMS, Jeff pass short to the right complete for 4 yards to METAYER, Chamon caught at the CIN42 and advanced to the CIN41 (SANKS, Jiquan), out of bounds, clock 00:23. PENALTY Before the snap, ASU Illegal Shift enforced 5 yards from the CIN45 to the ASU50. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 0:16
3RD & 8
50
-9
60.7%
Jeff Sims sacked by Jonathan Thompson for a loss of 9 yards to the ASU 41Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 17
OWN 41
0
62.6%
Kanyon Floyd punt for 50 yds, downed at the CIN 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 9TD
6 plays · 91 yds · 3:1461% → 68%
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+13
61.1%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Joe Royer for 13 yds to the CIN 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
61.5%
Corey Kiner run for 4 yds to the CIN 26Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+9
61.6%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Sterling Berkhalter for 9 yds to the CIN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
61.9%
Evan Pryor run for 1 yd to the CIN 36Similar
Q2 12:25
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+9
62.0%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 9 yds to the CIN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+55
68.0%
Evan Pryor run for 55 yds for a TD (Nathan Hawks KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:0233% → 31%
Q2 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
67.3%
Cam Skattebo run for 7 yds to the ASU 32Similar
Q2 10:58
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
66.9%
Cam Skattebo run for no gain to the ASU 32Similar
Q2 10:20
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
67.9%
Jeff Sims run for no gain to the ASU 32Similar
Q2 9:35
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
69.3%
Kanyon Floyd punt for 56 yds, downed at the CIN 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:4367% → 68%
Q2 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+13
67.4%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 13 yds to the CIN 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
67.7%
Cincinnati Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the CIN 16Similar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 19
OWN 16
+5
67.7%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Tony Johnson for 5 yds to the CIN 21Similar
Q2 7:32
2ND & 14
OWN 21
0
68.5%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:26
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+10
67.8%
Corey Kiner run for 10 yds to the CIN 31Similar
Q2 6:38
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
68.1%
Mason Fletcher punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Melquan Stovall at the ASU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 12DOWNS
5 plays · 24 yds · 1:4930% → 30%
Q2 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
70.1%
Cincinnati Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the ASU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
69.1%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 5 yds to the ASU 47Similar
Q2 5:46
2ND & 5
OWN 47
-1
68.7%
DeCarlos Brooks run for a loss of 1 yard to the ASU 46Similar
Q2 5:09
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+5
69.6%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 5 yds to the CIN 49Similar
Q2 4:42
4TH & 1
OPP 49
-1
69.8%
Cam Skattebo run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 13TD
6 plays · 50 yds · 2:4672% → 85%
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
50
-3
71.9%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Evan Pryor for a loss of 3 yards to the CIN 47Similar
Q2 3:56
2ND & 13
OWN 47
+15
71.2%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 15 yds to the ASU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+17
73.2%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Tony Johnson for 17 yds to the ASU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+20
73.9%
Corey Kiner run for 20 yds to the ASU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
85.4%
Brendan Sorsby run for 1 yd for a TD (Nathan Hawks KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:2018% → 18%
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
82.1%
Jeff Sims pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
82.5%
Jeff Sims pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:42
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+6
82.7%
Jeff Sims run for 6 yds to the ASU 31Similar
Q2 1:35
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
82.3%
Kanyon Floyd punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jamoi Mayes at the CIN 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 15MISSED FG
11 plays · 44 yds · 1:0986% → 83%
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
86.0%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Joe Royer for 3 yds to the CIN 35Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+5
85.9%
Corey Kiner run for 5 yds to the CIN 40Similar
Q2 1:02
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+4
87.4%
Corey Kiner run for 4 yds to the CIN 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
88.3%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Corey Kiner for 8 yds to the ASU 48Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+15
88.0%
Arizona State Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Caleb McCullough) to the ASU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
85.9%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 5 yds to the ASU 24Similar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 5
OPP 24
0
85.1%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:24
3RD & 5
OPP 24
0
84.6%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:20
4TH & 5
OPP 24
+42
83.2%
Nathan Hawks 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:0717% → 17%
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
82.6%
Jeff Sims pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+7
83.0%
Jeff Sims run for 7 yds to the ASU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 3:4517% → 13%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
83.5%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 13 yds to the ASU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
83.6%
Cam Skattebo run for 7 yds to the CIN 45Similar
Q3 13:50
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+2
82.9%
Cam Skattebo run for 2 yds to the CIN 43Similar
Q3 13:08
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+7
84.0%
Kyson Brown run for 7 yds to the CIN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
84.5%
Cam Skattebo run for 1 yd to the CIN 35Similar
Q3 11:51
2ND & 9
OPP 35
-5
84.6%
Jeff Sims sacked by Jared Bartlett for a loss of 5 yards to the CIN 40Similar
Q3 11:12
3RD & 14
OPP 40
0
87.2%
Jeff Sims pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:06
4TH & 14
OPP 40
0
87.4%
Kanyon Floyd punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Jamoi Mayes at the CIN 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 4:0789% → 91%
Q3 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
88.9%
Corey Kiner run for 4 yds to the CIN 17Similar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+8
89.2%
Corey Kiner run for 8 yds to the CIN 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
89.7%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 9 yds to the CIN 34Similar
Q3 9:02
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
90.7%
Corey Kiner run for 2 yds to the CIN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
91.2%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:19
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-9
91.2%
Brendan Sorsby sacked by Jacob Rich Kongaika for a loss of 9 yards to the CIN 27Similar
Q3 7:37
3RD & 19
OWN 27
+9
90.8%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Tony Johnson for 9 yds to the CIN 36Similar
Q3 6:52
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
90.9%
Mason Fletcher punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 19TD
9 plays · 74 yds · 4:2210% → 23%
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+16
90.2%
Cam Skattebo run for 16 yds to the ASU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
90.0%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Troy Omeire for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:38
2ND & 2
50
+8
89.5%
Cam Skattebo run for 8 yds to the CIN 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+13
90.2%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 13 yds to the CIN 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
89.9%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 3 yds to the CIN 26Similar
Q3 3:58
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+15
90.3%
(03:58) SIMS, Jeff pass deep to the right incomplete intended for TYSON, Jordyn thrown to the CIN0, clock 03:53. PENALTY CIN Pass Interference on ARNOLD, Ormanie enforced half the distance from the goal, 15 yards to the CIN11 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+8
90.3%
Jeff Sims run for 8 yds to the CIN 3Similar
Q3 3:19
2ND & 2
OPP 3
+2
90.4%
Jeff Sims run for 2 yds to the CIN 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
77.1%
Cam Skattebo run for 1 yd for a TD (Ian Hershey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 20DOWNS
15 plays · 72 yds · 8:1282% → 86%
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
82.4%
Corey Kiner run for 7 yds to the CIN 32Similar
Q3 1:42
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
83.7%
Corey Kiner run for 2 yds to the CIN 34Similar
Q3 1:04
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+6
83.5%
Corey Kiner run for 6 yds to the CIN 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
85.6%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Jamoi Mayes for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:59
1ST & 10
50
+3
86.0%
Barry Jackson Jr. run for 3 yds to the ASU 47Similar
Q4 14:29
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+12
85.6%
Brendan Sorsby run for 12 yds to the ASU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
86.6%
Evan Pryor run for 3 yds to the ASU 32Similar
Q4 13:01
2ND & 7
OPP 32
-5
86.8%
Brendan Sorsby run for a loss of 5 yards to the ASU 37Similar
Q4 12:20
3RD & 12
OPP 37
+9
86.2%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Corey Kiner for 9 yds to the ASU 28Similar
Q4 11:34
4TH & 3
OPP 28
+18
85.9%
Corey Kiner run for 18 yds to the ASU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
87.3%
Brendan Sorsby run for no gain to the ASU 10Similar
Q4 10:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
87.9%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 7 yds to the ASU 3Similar
Q4 9:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
87.4%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:11
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
0
86.4%
Tony Johnson run for no gain to the ASU 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 21MISSED FG
8 plays · 67 yds · 3:0811% → 10%
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
88.8%
Cam Skattebo run for 2 yds to the ASU 5Similar
Q4 8:41
2ND & 8
OWN 5
+7
89.2%
Cam Skattebo run for 7 yds to the ASU 12Similar
Q4 8:01
3RD & 1
OWN 12
+8
89.7%
Jeff Sims run for 8 yds to the ASU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+42
89.9%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 42 yds to the CIN 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
87.3%
Cam Skattebo run for 6 yds to the CIN 32Similar
Q4 6:42
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+2
86.3%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 2 yds to the CIN 30Similar
Q4 6:05
3RD & 2
OPP 30
0
88.2%
Jeff Sims pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:01
4TH & 2
OPP 30
+48
89.6%
Ian Hershey 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 22PUNT
13 plays · 28 yds · 3:5792% → 98%
Q4 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
91.7%
Corey Kiner run for a loss of 1 yard to the CIN 29Similar
Q4 5:51
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+14
92.3%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Jamoi Mayes for 14 yds to the CIN 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
93.7%
Corey Kiner run for 3 yds to the CIN 46Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+3
96.7%
Corey Kiner run for 3 yds to the CIN 49Similar
Q4 4:52
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+13
97.0%
Brendan Sorsby run for 13 yds to the ASU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
97.2%
Corey Kiner run for 1 yd to the ASU 37Similar
Q4 3:23
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+5
97.6%
Corey Kiner run for 5 yds to the ASU 32Similar
Q4 2:35
3RD & 4
OPP 32
-10
97.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 10 yards to the ASU 42Similar
Q4 1:59
4TH & 14
OPP 42
0
97.5%
Mason Fletcher punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 23MISSED FG
13 plays · 57 yds · 1:195% → 6%
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
94.8%
Jeff Sims run for 5 yds to the ASU 25Similar
Q4 1:43
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
94.2%
Jeff Sims pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:36
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+10
95.0%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 10 yds to the ASU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
94.5%
Jeff Sims pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:22
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+6
94.6%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Chamon Metayer for 6 yds to the ASU 41Similar
Q4 1:17
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+6
94.4%
Jeff Sims run for 6 yds to the ASU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+10
94.2%
Jeff Sims run for 10 yds to the CIN 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
93.6%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Cam Skattebo for 9 yds to the CIN 34Similar
Q4 0:57
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+11
92.4%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Cam Skattebo for 11 yds to the CIN 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
92.5%
Jeff Sims pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:41
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
92.9%
Jeff Sims pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:36
3RD & 10
OPP 23
0
93.3%
Jeff Sims pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:30
4TH & 10
OPP 23
+41
94.1%
Ian Hershey 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 24END OF GAME
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
98.3%
(00:23) [SG] Kneel down by SORSBY, Brendan at CIN23 (team loss of 0), clock 00:16.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:23
Cam Skattebo run for 1 yd for a TD (Ian Hershey KICK)
-13.3
TD · Q2 1:55
Brendan Sorsby run for 1 yd for a TD (Nathan Hawks KICK)
+11
TD · Q2 11:38
Evan Pryor run for 55 yds for a TD (Nathan Hawks KICK)
+6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com