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Win probability · ARIZ
modelARIZ aheadCOLO aheadconfidence bandkey playARIZ scoreCOLO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:55 · Michael Salgado-Medina punt for 36 yds , Jimmy Horn Jr. returns for 16 yds to the ARIZ 31
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame prior
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 6:16: Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Drelon Miller for 1 yd for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK) — COLO win probability +3.5 pts (now 52%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
- TD · Q1 1:17: Noah Fifita pass complete to Chris Hunter for 1 yd for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK) — ARIZ win probability +5.3 pts (now 54%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
- TD · Q2 13:03: Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Will Sheppard for 16 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK) — COLO win probability +10.8 pts (now 62%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:07: Shedeur Sanders run for 6 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK) — COLO win probability +11.6 pts (now 87%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 1:00: Noah Fifita run for 11 yds to the ARIZ 34 for a 1ST down — ARIZ win probability +10.1 pts (now 24%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 7 of 8COLO made the numbers' call on 2 of 7
- Q1 11:13ARIZ 4th & 16 at ARIZ 24, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.7% before the snapGo for it56.5%−0.314% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call56.8%average punt
- Q2 13:35COLO 4th & 10 at ARIZ 30, up 7Close callWent for it · 49.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call48.5%−0.529% to convertField goal48.9%56% to makePunt48.1%−0.9average punt
- Q2 8:43ARIZ 4th & 8 at COLO 34, down 14Close callKicked a field goal · 41.3% before the snapGo for it41.2%34% to convertField goalTheir call41.1%−0.147% to makePunt40.5%−0.7average punt
- Q2 2:55ARIZ 4th & 10 at ARIZ 11, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.0% before the snapGo for it32.6%−1.527% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.1%average punt
- Q2 0:04ARIZ 4th & 12 at ARIZ 47, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.8% before the snapGo for it20.4%−1.023% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.4%average punt
- Q3 10:06ARIZ 4th & 15 at ARIZ 47, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.7% before the snapGo for it15.5%−2.117% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.6%average punt
- Q3 5:58COLO 4th & 2 at ARIZ 9, up 21Close callKicked a field goal · 93.4% before the snapGo for it93.4%54% to convertField goalTheir call92.5%−0.889% to makePunt87.3%−6.1average punt
- Q3 2:55ARIZ 4th & 17 at ARIZ 40, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.7% before the snapGo for it4.9%−1.214% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.2%average punt
- Q3 1:17COLO 4th & 3 at COLO 44, up 24Close callPunted · 95.8% before the snapGo for it96.0%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.8%−0.1average punt
- Q4 14:14ARIZ 4th & 15 at ARIZ 25, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.8% before the snapGo for it3.5%−0.516% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.0%average punt
- Q4 11:21COLO 4th & 3 at ARIZ 18, up 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call97.5%51% to convertField goal97.3%−0.279% to makePunt95.7%−1.7average punt
- Q4 8:39ARIZ 4th & 5 at ARIZ 32, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snapGo for it2.0%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.2%average punt
- Q4 6:57COLO 4th & 7 at COLO 22, up 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.4% before the snapGo for it98.3%−0.235% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.5%average punt
- Q4 4:42COLO 4th & 3 at ARIZ 16, up 24Close callKicked a field goal · 98.9% before the snapGo for it98.9%51% to convertField goalTheir call98.8%−0.181% to makePunt98.2%−0.7average punt
- Q4 1:17COLO 4th & 8 at ARIZ 13, up 27Close callWent for it · 99.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.8%−<0.130% to convertField goal99.8%85% to makePunt99.4%−0.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 1 of 1COLO made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 12:37COLO Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call42.3%97% to makeGo for two42.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 6:16COLO Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call47.0%97% to makeGo for two47.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:17ARIZ Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call52.3%97% to makeGo for two52.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:03COLO Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call53.8%97% to makeGo for two53.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:07COLO Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call76.4%97% to makeGo for two76.3%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCOLODrive 1TD5 plays · 46 yds · 2:1845% → 46%
ARIZDrive 2PUNT4 plays · -6 yds · 1:0354% → 54%
COLODrive 3TD12 plays · 63 yds · 4:5046% → 52%
Q1 9:54
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+12
53.2%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 12 yds to the ARIZ 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
52.8%
(09:17) SANDERS, Shedeur pass deep to the left incomplete intended for WESTER, LaJohntay thrown to the ARIZ15, clock 09:12. PENALTY ARIZ Pass Interference on LUTTRELL, Jack enforced 15 yards to the ARIZ30 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 8:10
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+11
52.1%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 11 yds to the ARIZ 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+11
51.7%
(07:41) SANDERS, Shedeur pass to the right incomplete intended for HUNTER, Travis thrown to the ARIZ0, clock 07:37. PENALTY ARIZ Pass Interference on DAVIS, Tacario enforced 11 yards to the ARIZ2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 7:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
51.6%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jordan Onovughe for 1 yd to the ARIZ 1Similar
Q1 6:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
48.0%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Drelon Miller for 1 yd for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 4TD13 plays · 75 yds · 4:5449% → 54%
Q1 5:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
48.8%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 10 yds to the ARIZ 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+15
48.8%
FIFITA, Noah pass to the right incomplete intended for MCMILLAN, Tetairoa thrown to the COLO50, clock 04:30. PENALTY COLO Roughing the Passer on OKUNLOLA, Samuel enforced 15 yards from the ARIZ38 to the COLO47 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 3:45
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+16
49.8%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jeremiah Patterson for 16 yds to the COLO 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-15
49.0%
(03:20) CONLEY, Quali rush up the middle for a loss of 2 yards to the COLO24 (GREEN, B.J.), clock 03:16. PENALTY ARIZ Personal Foul on OLSON, Sam enforced 15 yards from the COLO22 to the COLO37 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 1:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
53.5%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Chris Hunter for 1 yd for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 5TD11 plays · 75 yds · 3:0850% → 62%
Q1 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
50.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Isaiah Augustave for 7 yds to the COLO 32Similar
Q2 14:57
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+5
48.7%
Isaiah Augustave run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:27
1ST & 10
50
+20
48.1%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Will Sheppard for 20 yds to the ARIZ 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:35
4TH & 10
OPP 30
+14
49.0%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 14 yds to the ARIZ 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
38.2%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Will Sheppard for 16 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 6MISSED FG9 plays · 40 yds · 4:1144% → 41%
Q2 11:08
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+18
42.7%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Sam Olson for 18 yds to the COLO 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:52
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+5
42.6%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 5 yds to the COLO 28Similar
Q2 9:23
3RD & 2
OPP 28
-6
41.8%
Noah Fifita sacked by Nikhai Hill-Green for a loss of 6 yards to the COLO 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 7FUMBLE7 plays · 42 yds · 3:0466% → 69%
Q2 7:25
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+14
33.2%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 14 yds to the ARIZ 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+16
31.9%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 16 yds to the ARIZ 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:34
3RD & 2
OPP 22
-2
30.9%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARIZ 24 fumbled, recovered by ARIZ Owen Goss O. Goss return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 8FUMBLE2 plays · -5 yds · 0:1336% → 36%
COLODrive 9INT3 plays · -6 yds · 1:1770% → 71%
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-1
29.8%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the ARIZ 20Similar
Q2 4:24
2ND & 11
OPP 20
-5
29.4%
Shedeur Sanders run for a loss of 5 yards to the ARIZ 25 Shedeur Sanders fumbled, recovered by COLO Dallan Hayden D. Hayden return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q2 3:38
3RD & 16
OPP 25
0
29.3%
Shedeur Sanders pass intercepted Jack Luttrell return for no gain to the ARIZ 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 10PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:4235% → 34%
Q2 2:55
4TH & 10
OWN 11
+16
33.7%
Michael Salgado-Medina punt for 36 yds , Jimmy Horn Jr. returns for 16 yds to the ARIZ 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 11TD8 plays · 31 yds · 1:3672% → 87%
Q2 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
28.2%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Will Sheppard for 6 yds to the ARIZ 25Similar
Q2 2:10
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+3
27.7%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Travis Hunter for 3 yds to the ARIZ 22Similar
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+7
25.1%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 7 yds to the ARIZ 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 12PUNT10 plays · 24 yds · 0:5624% → 23%
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+15
23.5%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jeremiah Patterson for 15 yds to the ARIZ 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 15
OWN 44
-10
24.1%
(00:32) FIFITA, Noah pass to the right incomplete intended for OLSON, Sam thrown to the COLO45, clock 00:27. PENALTY ARIZ Holding on MOE JR., Wendell enforced 10 yards from the ARIZ44 to the ARIZ34 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 25
OWN 34
+13
22.7%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Chris Hunter for 13 yds to the ARIZ 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 13END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 14PUNT11 plays · 22 yds · 4:4720% → 16%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
20.2%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 10 yds to the ARIZ 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:52
2ND & 4
OWN 41
-10
20.9%
(13:52) CONLEY, Quali rush to the right for a gain of 4 yards to the ARIZ45 (BENTLEY, LaVonta;HOOD, Colton), clock 13:47. PENALTY ARIZ Holding on DOOST, Alexander enforced 10 yards from the ARIZ41 to the ARIZ31 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 13:36
2ND & 14
OWN 31
+6
19.0%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Quali Conley for 6 yds to the ARIZ 37Similar
Q3 12:53
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+15
18.5%
(12:53) FIFITA, Noah pass deep to the right incomplete intended for MCMILLAN, Tetairoa thrown to the COLO30, clock 12:47. PENALTY COLO Pass Interference on HOOD, Colton enforced 15 yards to the COLO48 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 7
OPP 45
-10
19.6%
(12:10) FIFITA, Noah scrambles up the middle for a gain of 7 yards to the COLO38 (HILL-GREEN, Nikhai), clock 12:01. PENALTY ARIZ Holding on WOOTEN, Michael enforced 10 yards from the COLO45 to the ARIZ45 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 11:43
2ND & 17
OWN 45
+3
18.1%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 3 yds to the ARIZ 48Similar
Q3 10:48
3RD & 19
OWN 43
+4
17.0%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Quali Conley for 4 yds to the ARIZ 47Similar
Q3 10:06
4TH & 15
OWN 47
0
16.0%
Michael Salgado-Medina punt for 38 yds, fair catch by LaJohntay Wester at the COLO 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 15FG11 plays · 76 yds · 3:5990% → 94%
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+12
10.5%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 12 yds to the COLO 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
9.7%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Will Sheppard for 12 yds to the COLO 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+7
8.7%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Dallan Hayden for 7 yds to the COLO 46Similar
Q3 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+10
7.8%
(07:32) SANDERS, Shedeur pass deep to the right incomplete intended for WESTER, LaJohntay thrown to the ARIZ10, clock 07:29. PENALTY ARIZ Holding on SMITH, Genesis enforced 10 yards from the ARIZ27 to the ARIZ17 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-5
7.3%
Colorado Penalty, Illegal Snap on ZILINSKAS, Hank enforced (-5 Yards) to the ARIZ 22Similar
Q3 6:57
2ND & 12
OPP 19
+9
7.2%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 9 yds to the ARIZ 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 16PUNT8 plays · 11 yds · 2:567% → 4%
COLODrive 17PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3496% → 96%
ARIZDrive 18PUNT5 plays · 15 yds · 1:555% → 4%
Q3 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-7
4.5%
Noah Fifita sacked by Samuel Okunlola for a loss of 7 yards to the ARIZ 23Similar
Q4 14:59
3RD & 10
OWN 30
-5
4.0%
Noah Fifita sacked by Keaten Wade for a loss of 5 yards to the ARIZ 25Similar
Q4 14:14
4TH & 15
OWN 25
0
3.7%
Michael Salgado-Medina punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jimmy Horn Jr. at the COLO 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 19DOWNS8 plays · 46 yds · 2:4997% → 98%
Q4 13:38
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+10
2.9%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 10 yds to the ARIZ 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:46
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+10
2.5%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Drelon Miller for 10 yds to the ARIZ 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
2.4%
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Drelon Miller for 7 yds to the ARIZ 18Similar
Q4 11:21
4TH & 3
OPP 18
0
2.5%
Shedeur Sanders pass intercepted Jack Luttrell return for no gain to the ARIZ 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 20PUNT6 plays · 18 yds · 2:343% → 2%
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
2.7%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Chris Hunter for 3 yds to the ARIZ 17Similar
Q4 10:48
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+10
2.6%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 10 yds to the ARIZ 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-8
2.5%
Noah Fifita sacked by Arden Walker for a loss of 8 yards to the ARIZ 19Similar
Q4 9:28
3RD & 18
OWN 19
+13
2.2%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Chris Hunter for 13 yds to the ARIZ 32Similar
Q4 8:39
4TH & 5
OWN 32
0
2.2%
Michael Salgado-Medina punt for 49 yds , Jimmy Horn Jr. returns for no gain to the COLO 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 21PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:3398% → 99%
Q4 6:57
4TH & 7
OWN 22
+3
1.5%
Mark Vassett punt for 53 yds , Jeremiah Patterson returns for 3 yds to the ARIZ 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 22INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-61
1.4%
Noah Fifita pass intercepted for a 1ST down Colton Hood return for 46 yds to the COLO 26 for a 1ST down Colorado Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the COLO 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 23FG4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3799% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 24FUMBLE4 plays · 22 yds · 1:350% → 0%
Q4 4:03
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+15
0.2%
Colorado Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Anquin Barnes Jr.) to the COLO 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:59
2ND & 10
OPP 42
-4
0.2%
Cole Tannenbaum run for a loss of 4 yards to the COLO 46 Cole Tannenbaum fumbled, recovered by COLO Brendan Gant B. Gant return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 25DOWNS6 plays · 39 yds · 1:41100% → 100%
ARIZDrive 26END OF GAME3 plays · 19 yds · 1:010% → 0%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:07
Shedeur Sanders run for 6 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)
-11.6
TD · Q2 13:03
Shedeur Sanders pass complete to Will Sheppard for 16 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)
-10.8
KEY PLAY · Q2 1:00
Noah Fifita run for 11 yds to the ARIZ 34 for a 1ST down
+10.1